Showing posts with label Louise McWhirter. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Louise McWhirter. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 4, 2024

The 18 Year Economic Cycle │Akhil Patel


Akhil Patel was the special guest presenter at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles' June 3 'Masters Working Group' interactive session. Author of 'The Secret Wealth Advantage', Patel discusses how the 18 year cycle affects the markets and how it can transform investing strategies. Patel is one of the world’s leading experts in economic, financial, and property cycles. He has been working for over a decade to produce unique research that combines an in- depth understanding of business, real estate, and stock market cycles. 
 
 

Friday, March 15, 2024

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ March - April 2024

 
» I’m not trying to predict the future; I am trying to accurately and quickly depict the present. 
I’m not trying to predict what people will do, but rather identify what they are doing right now. «  
Chris Camillo, 2023
 

Monday, January 8, 2024

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ January 2024

 
 
» The lunar node, quite abstractly speaking, is the point of intersection of the solar and the lunar orbits. There are, therefore, two nodes in opposite positions in the heavens: an ascending node or lunar north node, and a descending node - the lunar south node. The solar and the lunar orbits are not, in effect, in the same but in different planes, enclosing a certain angle. Thus there arise the two opposite points of intersection. The peculiarity of these two points of intersection is that they do not stand still but slowly move. The plane of the lunar path rotates in relation to the plane of the solar path; so the two nodes move a round. They move around the Zodiac in a contrary direction to the rotation of the planets, i.e., from Aries backward through Pisces, Aquarius, etc. A complete revolution of a lunar node takes place in 18 years and 7 months; after this time, therefore, the node — the ascending node, for example — is once again in the same position in the Zodiac as it was before. The ascending node is, thereby, the mathematical point that (at any given time and again after 18 years and 7 months [= 6,798.383 CD] the lunar orbit rises above the solar orbit, while at the opposite point the descending node sinks below it. «

Willi O. Sucher, 1937.
 

Thursday, December 21, 2023

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ Projection into April 2024

 
Dec 21, 2023 (Thu) = May 10, 2005 (Tue)
 
 
 In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are tops. 

Jan 3 (Wed) 22:30 = 270°
= Last Quarter    
Jan 11 (Thu) 06:57 = 0° = New Moon    
Jan 17 (Wed) 22:52 = 90° = First Quarter    
Jan 25 (Thu) 12:53 = 180° = Full Moon    

Friday, October 21, 2022

Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2022 | 18.6 Year Real Estate Cycle

UBS (Oct 11, 2022) - Nominal house price growth in the cities analyzed accelerated to 10% from mid-2021 to mid-2022, representing the highest increase since 2007. Four US cities — Miami, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Boston — are among the top five with the fastest-growing prices.
 

Imbalances
are sky-high in both analyzed Canadian cities, with Toronto topping the index. Valuations in Frankfurt, Zurich, Munich, and Amsterdam also show elevated risks in Europe. In contrast, there is no bubble risk in the US cities. Since last year, mortgage rates have almost doubled on average across the cities analyzed. Alongside increased prices, this makes city housing much less affordable. A skilled service sector worker can afford roughly one-third less housing space than before the pandemic. 
 
 
In almost all cities, households have been leveraging up. Outstanding mortgages recorded the strongest increase since 2008. Debt-to-GDP is on the rise as well, reflecting the cheap financing conditions and weak economic growth since the pandemic. People have returned to the cities. Strong household formation and unaffordable owner-occupied housing drove demand for rental units. As a result, rents grew by 7% on average last year, making up all rental losses accumulated during the first year of pandemic. Higher interest rates, inflation, turmoil in the financial markets, and deteriorating economic conditions are putting the housing boom under pressure. In a majority of cities with high valuations, price corrections have either already begun, or are expected to start in the coming quarters [...] 

Edward R. Dewey & Edwin F. Dakin, 1947:
"No matter what index be used, this 18-year cycle rhythm seems one of the clearest,
most regular patterns revealed in our economic life.
"
 
In 1947 Edward R. Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin showed that 18.6 year real estate cycles have repeated over centuries: in times of inflation or deflation, whether interest rates are high or low, with or without trade barriers, with government subsidies, and with high, low or no taxes. Fred Harrison demonstrated considerable economic predictive power relating to this 18.6 year cycle pattern: 14 years up, interrupted by a mid-cycle dip, followed by 4 years down. In over two centuries, this cycle has only ever been disrupted by two world wars. The cycle has never been shorter than 17 years, or longer than 21.

Dewey and Dakin wrote: "The building cycle is so long that few people experience two complete cycles in their business life. Education, to be effective, must therefore be “book knowledge” rather than experience […] For many individuals, an unfavorable first experience means a lifetime tragedy […] The welfare of an individual is often determined by the time in which he was born. If he is old enough to start business at the low of a business cycle, which is accompanied by […] rising prices, his chances for success are very good. Conversely, if he is born at such a date that he starts in business at the peak of a building cycle, which is accompanied by falling commodity prices, his chances of success are small. Much of the success or failure of an individual is due to forces over which he has no control; but if he understands these forces, he may protect himself from the worst results of unfavorable combinations and profit personally from favorable combinations."
 
All cycles have the same characteristics, but different influences, and government intervention in markets cannot create or suppress the real estate cycles. Credit, created by banks, through fractional reserve banking, fuels the cycle. Each recession brings new rules and regulations to the banking industry, designed to stop problems and prevent abuses; each upturn brings new ways to profit by exploiting loopholes in those rules and regulations. 
 
Residential real estate is first to recover from a downturn. The mid-cycle slowdown is confusing: The 18-year cycle is so long that few people remember the last one, and when market expansion quickly resumes, people think everything is fine. But the coming downturn will always be much worse than a mid-cycle slowdown. In the final years of a cycle, authorities congratulate themselves on how well they are managing things. If banks know the government will bail them out, why be prudent in lending. Seeing huge returns of others, the masses rush into real estate investing, believing it never goes down until fear overtakes greed. Land values peak about 12-24 months before a recession. 
 
A peak in the building cycle usually follows peak in land values, but precedes the recession. Announcement of the next ‘world’s tallest building’ may well be the most reliable indicator of an approaching peak. Copper prices spike into the last years of each real estate cycle. In the US all recessions since 1960 have been preceded by an inverted yield curve. The turning point in a cycle is often the collapse, or near collapse, of a major bank; some event will arise to cause doubt, but you’ll hear assurances that everything is okay. 
 
The crisis at the end always comes in an environment of rising interest rates, and the stock market is first to trough because of its far greater liquidity. Investors, speculators, and homeowners with little equity at the end of a cycle will always be wiped out. Always. Recovery takes years, not months. Historically, prices have dropped 20-30% from previous peaks. In the US the 18.6 Year Real Estate Cycle is expected to peak and crash again around 2025 - 2026.
 
 
See also:

Monday, August 27, 2018

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Nodal Cycle | Aug 27, 2018 = Jan 14, 2000

Jan 14, 2000 (Fri = Major High in DJIA) + 6,800 CD = Aug 27, 2018 (Mon)

A high should print around Aug 30 (Thu) ± 1 CD.
Aug 30 will be also
195 Solar Degrees of geocentric longitude from the Major Low on Feb 09 (Fri)
and 1,440 Lunar Degrees from the Low on May 03 (Thu).

Sunday, May 20, 2018

S&P 500 Index vs Louise McWhirter's Short-Term Forecasting Method


In her monthly analysis Louise McWhirter determined the dates when the transiting Moon passes by the
Mid-Heaven (24 degrees Pisces), the Ascendant (14 degrees Cancer) and the Descendant (14 degrees
Capricorn) of the NYSE natal horoscope (May 17, 1792 07:52 a.m.) She thought that Mars and Neptune
would “rule” the NYSE and hence also considered the Moon's transits with these planets.

Recent and upcoming dates:

2018 May 05 (Sat) 02:19 = MOO @ 14°CAP
2018 May 06 (Sun) 02:20 = MOO 0° MAR
2018 May 10 (Thu) 06:22 = MOO 0° NEP
2018 May 10 (Thu) 21:26 = MOO @ 24° PIS
2018 May 18 (Fri) 16:43 = MOO @ 14° CAN
2018 Jun 01 (Fri) 09:37 = MOO @ 14° CAP
2018 Jun 03 (Sun) 06:21 = MOO 0° MAR

2018 Jun 06 (Wed) 15:23 = MOO 0° NEP
2018 Jun 07 (Thu) 05:55 = MOO @ 24° PIS
2018 Jun 15 (Fri) 01:41 = MOO @ 14° CAN
2018 Jun 28 (Thu) 16:07 = MOO @ 14° CAP
2018 Jun 30 (Sat) 19:10 = MOO 0° MAR
2018 Jul 03 (Tue) 22:17 = MOO 0° NEP
2018 Jul 04 (Wed) 13:08 = MOO @ 24° PIS
2018 Jul 12 (Thu) 12:12 = MOO @ 14° CAN
2018 Jul 25 (Wed) 22:09 = MOO @ 14° CAP
2018 Jul 27 (Fri) 14:48 = MOO 0° MAR
2018 Jul 31 (Tue) 03:26 = MOO 0° NEP
2018 Jul 31 (Tue) 19:10 = MOO @ 24° PIS
2018 Aug 08 (Wed) 22:42 = MOO @ 14° CAN

[all times calculated for New York City =  EST/EDT]
Louise McWhirter (1938) - McWhirter Theory of Stock Market Forecasting [199 p.]

Saturday, August 1, 2015

DJIA vs Lunar North Node in Zodiac Signs | Louise McWhirter

The mathematically calculated Lunar Nodes are sensitive points in space where the Moon’s orbit around the Earth
intersects the ecliptic - the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. The Ascending Node is where the Moon crosses from
south of the ecliptic to north of the ecliptic. The Descending Node is where it crosses from north of the ecliptic
to south of the ecliptic. In Western astrology the Ascending and Descending Nodes are known as the "North Node"
and the "South Node". Only the North Node is usually marked in horoscopes, as the South Node is by definition at
the opposite point in the chart. In Vedic astrology, the North and South Nodes are called Rahu and Ketu respectively,
and both are marked in the chart. Nodes always move retrograde and are considered natural malefics. Astrologically
the Nodes are thought to powerfully influencing both the affairs of nations and of people. Eclipses occur only near
the Lunar Nodes: Solar eclipses occur when the passage of the Moon through a Node coincides with the New Moon.
Lunar Eclipses occur when passage coincides with the Full Moon. The plane of the lunar orbit precesses in space
and hence the Lunar Nodes precess around the ecliptic, completing a revolution (called a Draconic or Nodal Period,
the period of nutation) in 6798.383 days or 18.612 years. The Nodes need 1.55 years to pass through one zodiac sign.

In her book 'Astrology and Stock Market Forecasting' published almost 80 years ago, financial astrologer Louise McWhirter described a theory of the business cycle. She claimed the low point of the depression was reached in summer of 1933 (Lunar North Node in Aquarius) and predicted the next peak in economic activity would occur in November 1942 (NN in Leo). Her prediction for recovery in 1942 coincided with the massive economic stimulus spending set in motion by the build-up for World War II. Looking at 100 years of stock market prices she consistently found the North Node in the sign of Aquarius during periods of low economic activity. At the halfway point in the 18.6-year cycle, the North Node is moving into the sign of Leo, where economic high points have historically been recorded. After this, the long-term trend moves lower as the North Node slowly and systematically makes its way back to the sign of Aquarius, where the cycle begins anew (see also HERE). 

Enlarge
Using McWhirter’s method, one would have expected the lowest economic period between January 2008 and August 2009 (NN in Aquarius), and then gradually improving from below normal levels to normal levels between August 2009 and August 2012 (NN in Capricorn, Sagittarius and Scorpio). The period between September 2012 and February 2014 was projected to be an above normal period for economic performance (unfortunately the red line of the averaged composite in the above chart doesn't clearly reflect this pattern). 

Though a considerable market correction between now and Q1 2016 is likely (HERE & HERE), a larger ensuing double-dip recession wouldn’t fit into the McWhirter-pattern (HERE). Instead the general upward trend should continue into the major peak-out between May 2017 and November 2018 (NN in Leo - HERE), followed by collapsing and declining markets into the 2020s (HERE).

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

UK GNP vs North Node | Projection into 2025

See also HERE & HERE
"This is a graph of [UK] GNP, not of annual change, so that when the graph is falling there is a contraction in the economy and when it rises the economy is growing.” 

[Source: Graham Bates & Jane Chrzanowska Bowles (1994): Money & the Markets - An Astrological Guide;  p. 63].

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

US GNP vs North Node | Projection into 2025

See also HERE
One of the most important US cycles is that of the Moon's Node. The Nodal cycle does not involve a cycle between two planets, but rather a cycle through the zodiac, a cycle which the 1930s astrologer Louise McWhirter found had a powerful and persistent correlation with the American economy. Her research showed that many recessions in the US can be explained and predicted by the cycle, and so it is an invaluable guide to US economic activity.

[…] Taking the period from 1889 to 1988, we note the change in GNP at each point in the 18.6 year Node cycle. By repeating this over each occurrence of the cycle in the data and averaging the result for each position of the Node, we get the graph shown here.

 
[…] The Node cycle acts very strongly on the US economy, giving a swing of plus or minus 3% per cent in annual growth over the cycle. This is a graph of GNP, not of annual change, so that when the graph is falling there is a contraction in the economy and when it rises the economy is growing.” [Source: Graham Bates & Jane Chrzanowska Bowles (1994): Money & the Markets - An Astrological Guide;  p. 60-61].


Malcolm C. Rorty (1922) - The Forces of the Business Cycle.

Friday, June 5, 2015

SPX vs North Node | Louise McWhirter's Theory of Stock Market Forecasting



Louise McWhirter presented her theory in 1938 in "Astrology and Stock Market Forecasting" (p. 7-8) as follows:

Whenever the North Node passes through Scorpio and Libra
[2012-2015], there is a transition period as the curve passes from normal, going from normal to high.

[…] The high point of business volume is reached when the North Node transits Leo
[2017-2018]. As the North Node goes through Cancer and Gemini, business volume is above normal, but slowly going to normal.

[…] Taurus
[2003-2004] is the transition point or normal point as the curve goes from normal to below normal in business volume.

[…] When the North Node enters Aquarius
[2007-2008], the low point of business activity has been reached. As the Node transits Capricorn [2009] and Sagittarius [2011], the normal position of the business curve is below normal going to normal.

[…] This is the natural position of the curve without the presence of secondary factors which can distort the curve favorably or unfavorably from one to twenty percent.

[…] The following secondary factors tend to lift the Business Curve:

(1) Jupiter conjunction the North Node.
[2009, 2016, 2023]
(2] Saturn trine, sextile, or semi-sextile Uranus.
[2002-2003, 2016-2017, 2025-2026]
(3) Jupiter in Gemini or Cancer.
[2000-2005, 2030-2035]
(4) Jupiter conjunction, sextile or trine Saturn and Uranus, when in aspect to each other.
(5) The North Node in Gemini.
[2013, 2016]
(6) Favorable aspects to Pluto.
[2013, 2016]

[…] The following secondary factors have been found to depress the Business Curve:

(1) Saturn conjunction, square or opposition the North Node.
[2013, 2016]
(2) Saturn conjunction, square, opposition, or semi-square Uranus.
[2012-2013, 2021]
(3) Saturn in Gemini. [2000-2003, 2030-2032]
(4) Uranus in Gemini.
[2025-2033]
(5) Uranus square, conjunction, or opposition the North Node.
[Jan 2015, Jun 2018]
(6) Unfavorable aspects to Pluto.
[Jan 2015, Apr 2019]

As the Node moved through Capricorn (2010) and Sagittarius (2011) the general economy approached a very high level of activity in Scorpio (2012), and should peak as the Node passes through the sign of Leo (2017). 

However, W.D. Gann associated the period of the Node in Libra (2015) also with stock market panics (HERE). Moving through the signs of Cancer (2018) and Gemini (2020), the economic activity is still positive but beginning to slow to more normal levels. 

The above chart of the SPX and the North Node in the zodiac signs clearly shows that in the past this basic theory was not always properly reflected in the stock market's movements. This has to do with other important astronomical cycles, e.g. the 19.86 Year Jupiter-Saturn Cycle, 19 Year Metonic Cycle, the different natured 18.61 Year Lunar Declination Cycle, the 18 Year Saros Cycle or the varying lengths of the Solar Cycle. Additional important "secondary factors" could be the amazing activities of central banks, especially during the past 40 years. Nevertheless, empirical research discovered a multitude of other interesting economic sub-cycles of 17 to 20 years length, never out-ruled by any human intervention. The Wave Length Index of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles lists the following:
 
Credits: Foundation for the Study of Cycles (1964): Catalogue of Cycles - Part I.

Thursday, June 4, 2015

SPX vs Moon and Planets transiting 14 Degrees Cancer

NYSE Natal Chart HERE & HERE
Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

On the evening of October 11, 1492 Columbus anchored at sea. In the distance he saw fires burning on La Hispanola when the Ascendant was at 14 degrees Cancer. George Washington was sworn in as President in the morning of April 30, 1789 around 9:00 when the Moon was passing 14 degrees Cancer. On July 4, 1776 (US-Independence Day) the Sun was at 14 degrees Cancer. On May 19, 1792 at the founding date of the New York Stock Exchange the Ascendant was passing 14 degrees Cancer. On April 3, 1848 a group of Chicago businessmen founded the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) when the Moon passed 14 degrees Cancer. Agricultural commodities often change trend when heliocentric Mercury, Mars and Venus pass 14 degrees Cancer, and Louise McWhirter's methodology is based on structuring monthly lunation charts with the Ascendant at 14 degrees Cancer.