Major asset classes (equities, metals, cryptos) are entering the final phase of their current 18-month cycles (beige-yellow in first chart below), with synchronized troughs expected from late January into early March 2026.
S&P 500 / US Equities: The August 2024 trough is identified as the 54-month cycle low. The brief break beneath it in April 2025 is viewed as a false Trump—“Liberation Day”—Tariff straddle and the first 40-week/9-month cycle trough within the current 18-month cycle. Since that time, price action has built a clean sequence of 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, and 20-week cycles.
S&P 500 / US Equities: The August 2024 trough is identified as the 54-month cycle low. The brief break beneath it in April 2025 is viewed as a false Trump—“Liberation Day”—Tariff straddle and the first 40-week/9-month cycle trough within the current 18-month cycle. Since that time, price action has built a clean sequence of 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, and 20-week cycles.
The current 20-day cycle (magenta) ideally bottoms on December 7 (Sun), and the 40-day cycle (red) on December 23 (Tue).
The
market has completed the latest 80-day trough on November 21 (Fri) and has now entered the final
80-day cycle before the 18-month (beige-yellow) low, which is due
around mid to late January 2026 (second chart above). A rally out of the 80-day cycle low into December, but without a new all-time high, was expected because the broken 20-week VTL typically marks the 40-week peak (see first chart).
An early December high remains likely before a meaningful decline into the 18-month trough. This forthcoming weakness is regarded as a mid-cycle correction within the still-intact 54-month cycle upswing. Strong gains are projected for Q2–Q3 2026 as the new 18-month cycle rises.
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