S&P 500 Now Declining into 18-Month Hurst Cycle Low | Ahmed Farghaly

Major asset classes (equities, metals, cryptos) are entering the final phase of their current 18-month cycles (beige-yellow in first chart below), with synchronized troughs expected from late January into early March 2026. 

S&P 500 / US Equities: The August 2024 trough is identified as the 54-month cycle low. The brief break beneath it in April 2025 is viewed as a false Trump—“Liberation Day”—Tariff straddle and the first 40-week/9-month cycle trough within the current 18-month cycle. Since that time, price action has built a clean sequence of 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, and 20-week cycles. 

S&P 500 (daily closes); 2020 to December 2025: The Big Picture. 

 

S&P 500 (daily bars); September to December 2025: Last stage of the 18-month cycle.

The current 20-day cycle (magenta) ideally bottoms on December 7 (Sun), and the 40-day cycle (red) on December 23 (Tue).

 

The market has completed the latest 80-day trough on November 21 (Fri) and has now entered the final 80-day cycle before the 18-month (beige-yellow) low, which is due around mid to late January 2026 (second chart above). A rally out of the 80-day cycle low into December, but without a new all-time high, was expected because the broken 20-week VTL typically marks the 40-week peak (see first chart). 

 

An early December high remains likely before a meaningful decline into the 18-month trough. This forthcoming weakness is regarded as a mid-cycle correction within the still-intact 54-month cycle upswing. Strong gains are projected for Q2–Q3 2026 as the new 18-month cycle rises.

Reference:
Ahmed Farghaly (December 1, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Update: S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, CRB Index, Interest Rates, Bitcoin. (video)

Hurst Cycles in the CNN Fear & Greed Index.

See also:

Ahmed Farghaly (December 2, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Update (S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, CRB Index, Interest rates, Bitcoin). 

Ahmed Farghaly (November 2, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis: Next Peaks and Troughs.

David Hickson (December 1, 2025) - Bullish or Bearish? - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

J.M. Hurst (1975) - The Cyclitec Cycles Course.

S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis: Next Peaks and Troughs | Ahmed Farghaly

J.M. Hurst's Principle of Commonality suggests that major markets worldwide bottom at approximately the same time. Consequently, my phasing analysis for the S&P 500 is very similar not only to other US stock indices, but also to the CRB index, crude oil, and global equities.

Long-Term Phasing: The 2003 trough initiated a new 54-year Kondratieff cycle, whose first 18-year cycle (a 17.17-year Kuznets swing) concluded with the May 2020 low. This trough was a "straddle to the right," a timing deviation caused by the swift, exogenous shock of the COVID-19 pandemic.

S&P 500 (daily bars) from 1999 to November 2025.

 

The 18-year cycle subdivides into two 9-year cycles. Crucially, the major 2008-2009 decline is considered a "false break" that does not negate the 2003 low. Following 2020, the first 54-month (Kitchin) cycle completed in August 2024, and the S&P 500 is now progressing through the second.

Analog Selection and Projection: The market action preceding the 2008-2009 crisis must be negated as an analog because it was driven by an exogenous factor that broke the 2003 low, a condition entirely absent in the current cyclical environment.

 

S&P 500 (daily bars) from January 2023 to November 2025.

 The projection of the 40-week cycle has a 95% out-of-sample correlation.

 

Lacking the preferred 18-year analog (typically required for a correlation coefficient >0.8), we utilize the 9-year cycle position to project the current 18-month cycle. After synchronizing the 40-week cycle troughs, this model proved highly effective, demonstrating a 95% out-of-sample correlation. Instead of a direct price overlay, the optimal approach is to detrend this projection and apply it to the RSI. This detrended analog shows a high correlation, suggesting a three-swing pattern for the US equity market, which is currently in the anticipated downswing.

Short-Term Outlook: The short-term cyclical position projects an 80-day cycle trough around November 14-16 (Fri-Mon), followed by a rally into early December, before a final selloff into year's end.

 

S&P 500 (daily bars) from June 2024 to November 2025.

Decline into 80-day low around November 14-16 (Fri-Mon); rally to December 8 (Mon) high; 

final decline into an 18-month or 40-week cycle low around December 25 (Thu).

 

Conversely, the more dominant 9-year cycle analog suggests a period of sideways consolidation near current levels. Under this model, new highs are unlikely to be significant, and the market will largely trend sideways until the 18-month cycle trough is established.

 

Reference:

Ahmed Farghaly (November 2, 2025) - SPX Time Cycle Analysis via Economic Waves. (video)

 Ahmed Farghaly (November 2, 2025) - Beyond the Headlines: Navigating US Markets with Long-Term & Short-Term Cycles.

 

FLD Cascade Pattern on XAUUSD chart indicates $3,000/oz target by Q1 2026.

 

Decoding the Next Global Conflict: Commodity Prices Signal Kuznets War-Phase.

Long-Term Commodity Cycles: Unraveling the Big Picture | Ahmed Farghaly

Cycle analysis, based on J.M. Hurst's framework, streamlines financial market navigation. Synchronized cycles—from long-term Methuselah, Enoch, Hegemony, and Kondratieff waves to short-term fluctuations—reveal historical patterns shaping current and future commodity market trends.

 

Methuselah Wave = 972-Year Cycle = three 324-Year Enoch Waves

Enoch Wave = two 162-Year Hegemony Waves 

Hegemony Wave = three 54-Year Kondratieff Waves

Kondratieff Wave = three 18-Year Kuznets Waves

Kuznets Wave = two 9-Year Juglar Waves 

Juglar Wave = two 54-Month Kitchin Cycles 

Kitchin Cycle = three 18-Month Cycles = six 40-Week Cycles

 

Long-Term Cycle Foundations

In July 1949, the 972-year Methuselah Wave, the 324-year Enoch Wave (starting 1673), the 162-year Hegemony Wave, the 54-year Kondratieff Wave, and all shorter cycles converged at their lows (see list above). The current Enoch Wave is projected to trough again around 2263, the Hegemony Wave around 2107, and the Kondratieff Wave, which last bottomed in March 2003, around 2055. These synchronized cycles frame long-term commodity and market trends, with the Enoch and Kondratieff waves signaling sustained commodity appreciation through 2100 and 2032, respectively, while the Hegemony Wave suggests a future correction.

Commodity Price Index (yearly bars) from 1250 to 2025:

 324-Year Enoch Waves, 162-Year Hegemony Waves, 54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves.

Kuznets Cycle and Historical Parallels

The current Kuznets cycle, an 18-year wave, began with a trough between March and June 2020, mirroring the 1720 cycle that drove a 61-year commodity rise peaking in 1781. Now 5.33 years into this phase, the cycle aligns with late 2008, following the 2003 post-SARS trough. Since 2020, sharp advances in equities and commodities, alongside rising inflation, reflect historical post-trough patterns. Extended cycles indicate the current commodity uptrend may peak near 2100, with sustained inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions persisting, punctuated by seasonal corrections within the Hegemony and Kondratieff waves.

 

Commodity Price Index (quarterly bars) from 1750 to 2025: 

 972-Year Methuselah Wave, 162-Year Hegemony Waves, 54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves.

Kondratieff Seasons and Projections

The last Kondratieff Summer peak occurred in 1980, seven years after the 1973 energy price shock, with the current summer peak projected around 2032, coinciding with the Kuznets peak in the second cycle of the 9-year Juglar wave. A 5–6-year correction is anticipated into around 2037, followed by a commodity recovery marking the Kondratieff Fall Season, characterized by disinflation and equity bubbles. Winter deflation is expected to follow, driving declines in commodities and equities.

 

Commodity Price Index (monthly bars) from 1900 to 2025: 

54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves.

 

Short-Term Cycle Dynamics

Within the Kuznets cycle, commodities and equities align with nested 9-year Juglar and 54-month Kitchin cycles. The current Kitchin cycle post-2024 is expected to drive a 26-month commodity rally, peaking around 2028 in its third 18-month subcycle, mirroring 2008–2011 patterns. Six 18-month subcycles and twelve 40-week cycles provide granular short-term projections. The commodity index is projected to rise through Q1 2026 and into 2028 before the first Juglar-wave correction.

Commodity Price Index (weekly bars) from 1995 to 2025:

 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves, 54-Month Kitchin Cycles, 18-Month Cycles, 40-Week Cycles.

 

S&P 500 (quarterly bars) from 1800 to 2025: 
162-Year Hegemony Waves, 54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves.

 

» The principle of confirmation [20-week VTL] on display. «

 Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100 (daily bars) from July 2024 to October 2025. 

18-Month Cycles, 40-Week Cycles, 20-Week Cycles, 80-Day Cycles, 40-Day Cycles, 20-Day Cycles.

 

» Assuming the S&P 500 is in the first bullish half of the third and last 18-month cycle within the current 54-month cycle (which allegedly began in October 2022), and there is no uplifting and dominant influence of the 9-year, 18-year, or 54-year cycles, the upcoming 40-week cycle peak, anticipated around late September to early October, would be a long-term market top. «  

 

Implications and Geopolitical Context

All cycles except the Hegemony Wave signal continued commodity price rises, with the Kuznets cycle supporting a 26-month rally, the Kondratieff wave projecting growth through 2032, and the Enoch wave indicating strength toward 2100. Current trends diverge from historical analogues, suggesting higher peaks. Inflation is expected to persist through 2032, with a commodity correction into 2037. The final Kuznets swing within the Hegemony Wave may trigger significant disruption, potentially signaling the decline of an old world order and the rise of a new one. Rising commodity prices continue to reflect heightened geopolitical tensions.

 

Reference:
Ahmed Farghaly (October 17, 2025) - Long-Term Commodity Cycles: Unraveling the Big Picture.

 

 WWII's effect on commodity prices counteracted the expected post-1919 bear market, 

resulting in a higher-than-expected 1949 low which J.M. Hurst termed a "straddled trough."

» Inflation will persist until century's end due to a long-term cycle. «

 

See also: 

Ahmed Farghaly (October 6, 2025) - High Inflation: We are in Kondratieff's "Summer of Summer". 

Ahmed Farghaly (2016) - The 162-Year Cycle in Stocks and Commodities Since 1509.

Ron William (2022) - Is the Big Cycle Turning? 

Nikolai Kondratieff (1926) - Gold Production Mirrors the Long Wave, It Doesn’t Drive It.