Solar Cycle 25, which spans from December 2019 to approximately late 2030, exemplifies Alexander L. Chizhevsky's (1897–1964) historiometric framework. This model, laid out in his 1924 article "The Physical Factors of the Historical Process," links human psychological "excitability" to solar activity over the average 11-year solar cycle:
"In each century, the universal cycle of historical events is
repeated exactly 9 times. Throughout the world history of Mankind,
beginning with 500 B.C. and until the present time, in each century I
have discovered 9 clearly outlined concentrations of the initial moments
of historical events. Thus, it can be considered that each cycle of the
general historical, military or social activity of humanity is equal,
on average, to 11 years."
"Figure 1: Percentage ratio of occurrences of historical events to years and periods
of the [11-year solar] cycle. Average output for 500 years (15th –20th centuries)."
Through
analysis of over 2,000 major historical events from 500 BCE to 1922 CE
across numerous countries, he determined that approximately 80% of
significant upheavals—such as wars, revolutions, riots, migrations, and
social unrest—occurred during periods of elevated solar activity,
particularly the ascending phase and maximum of the sunspot cycle. In
contrast, solar minima were associated with relative societal calm and
passivity. According to Chizhevsky, each solar cycle divides into four phases:
(I) Minimum Excitability (~3 years, 5% of "historical events" per Figure 1),
(II) Growth Excitability (~2.5 years, 20% of events),
(III) Maximum Excitability (~3 years, 60% of events), and
(IV) Decline Excitability (~2.5 years, 15% of events).
These are harmonized with NOAA's phases of the solar cycle (Minimum ~3 years, Rising ~4 years, Maximum ~3 years, Declining ~7 years) to fit the observed progression, with the smoothed peak at 160.9 sunspot numbers in October 2024. As of December 2025, the cycle is in the "Maximum Excitability" phase amid sustained high activity.
Phase I: Minimum Excitability (December 2019-November 2022): This phase aligns with NOAA's Solar Minimum in December 2019, featuring minimal sunspots and stable magnetic poles, comprising ~5% of "historical events" per Chizhevsky's Figure 1 (see above). It represents societal disunity and cultural focus:
"The characteristic features of this period are the following: disunity of human masses, indifference of the human masses to political and military issues, peace-loving mood of the human masses, compliance, tolerance, etc. The appearance of these psychological signs in the historically active human masses in the 1st period of the cycle is usually accompanied by the absence of any desire for any struggle for an idea or right, and therefore entails easy capitulation, surrender, throwing down of arms, flight from the battlefield, etc.
» Absence of any desire for any struggle. «
[...] In the memoirs of contemporaries and in historical studies, this period is noted for its general peace-loving mood, unwillingness to enter into any disputes, the end of most military actions and the triumph of the principle of non-intervention in international and national military-political life.
[...] Here the spiritual activity of Man begins, cultural values are created, pure art and science are placed in the corner of social life, replacing the stormy turmoil of recent days and devaluing with their achievements everything created hastily and precariously. In the period of minimum, humanity strives for calm, rests from the worries of previous years and gathers physical strength for the inevitably approaching new era of [social] unrest."
Phase II: Increasing Excitability (December 2022 – mid-2025): Corresponding to NOAA's Growth/Rising Phase, with escalating sunspots and initial pole shifts, this phase spans ~20% of "historical events" per Figure 1. It signals emerging ideologies and unity:
"Already the beginning of this period in historical studies is characterized by a significantly greater rise in the excitement of human masses than in the preceding period. There is still no unity of the masses of people; only little by little do the parties and groups that had fallen apart during the period of minimal excitability begin to reorganize, leaders are outlined, programs are defined. The power of suggestion manifests itself among the human masses: statesmen, military leaders, orators, the press are regaining their importance.
» Impatience and nervousness of the masses. «
Questions, political and military, begin to appear from behind the horizon of public life and gradually become more acute. The tendency to perseverate homogeneous thoughts is noticeable everywhere, filling the mental activity of the human masses. In spite of the will of individuals, the concentration on the same military or political themes, in the presence of, of course, favorable factors, gradually increases; ideas circulating among the human masses begin to dominate.
[...] At the end of the 2nd period, which can gradually assume a stormy character and reveal the impatience and nervousness of the masses of people, we notice one of the most important phenomena of the military-political life of communities, namely: the desire to unite the various nationalities that make up a given community for the purpose of defense or attack, and the merging of various political groups to counter other political groups.
The significance of this period is that it lays the foundation for the further development of historical events during a given cycle in a given human community and, in part, even predetermines their course during the period of maximum excitability."
In October 2023 NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center released a revised prediction for solar activity during Solar Cycle 25, and concluded that solar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level than previously predicted.
Phase III: Maximum Excitability in Solar Cycle 25 (mid-2025 – mid-2028): As of December
2025, Solar Cycle 25 is firmly entrenched in Phase III, the period of
Maximum Excitability, which spans mid-2025 to mid-2028. Encompassing NOAA's Solar Maximum, with peak sunspots, flares, and ejections, this phase accounts for ~60% of "historical events" per Figure 1. It drives transformative mass actions. This phase, as
delineated by Chizhevsky, represents the apex of solar
activity's influence on human behavior, characterized by heightened
psychological tension and collective mobilization:
"This is the main stage of development of each cycle, resolving the world-historical problems of humanity and founding new historical epochs. It incites humanity to the greatest follies and the greatest benefactions: it embodies ideas in life by means of the shedding of blood and the clanking of iron.
» The entire vast area of human madness. «
[...] Never does the influence of leaders, military leaders, orators, the press, etc., reach such a tremendous force as during the period of maximum intensity of the sunspot-forming activity of the Sun. During this period, sometimes one well-timed word or one gesture is enough to move entire armies and the masses.
[...] The period of maximum excitability may just be called the period of the emergence of the face of human masses and the sounding of the voice of the people. [...] The masses of people thirst for movement, the troops are restrained with difficulty, the soldiers are inclined to mutiny, and the people — to anarchy. In a word, the excitement increases unusually and the human organism seems to demand a discharge.
» The shedding of blood and the clanking of iron. «
[...] The basis of the above is the unanimity of the masses of people, which is especially clearly outlined in this period when resolving any military or political issues. [...] This brings with it various phenomena characteristic of any struggle, and mass movements of people usually undergo abnormal deviations. Sometimes the height of the struggle reveals the entire vast area of human madness, instability and passion.
[...] Thus, the ground is prepared for the solution of questions of a world-historical nature — the ground on which systems of human communities are erected."
Chizhevsky describes Phase III as "the main stage of development of each cycle, resolving the world-historical problems of humanity and founding new historical epochs. It incites humanity to the greatest follies and the greatest benefactions: it embodies ideas in life by means of the shedding of blood and the clanking of iron."
He emphasizes that during Phase III, "the mass activity of humanity all over the surface of the Earth, given the presence in human societies of economical, political or military exciting factors, reaches the maximum tension, manifesting itself in psycomotoric pandemics: revolutions, insurrections, expeditions, migrations etc., creating new formations in the existence of separate states and new historical epochs in the life of humanity."
» Solution of questions of a world-historical nature. « Plasma Tornado Erupts on the Sun.
Russian Academy of Sciences Footage, December 11-12, 2025.
Central to Phase III is the amplification of leadership influence and mass unanimity. Chizhevsky notes, "Never does the influence of leaders, military leaders, orators, the press, etc., reach such a tremendous force as during the period of maximum intensity of the sunspot-forming activity of the Sun. During this period, sometimes one well-timed word or one gesture is enough to move entire armies and the masses."
Πόλεμος πάντων μὲν πατήρ ἐστι, πάντων δὲ βασιλεύς, καὶ τοὺς μὲν θεοὺς
ἔδειξε τοὺς δὲ ἀνθρώπους, τοὺς μὲν δούλους ἐποίησε τοὺς δὲ ἐλευθέρους.
» War is both father and king of all; some he has shown forth as gods
and others as men, some he has made slaves and others free. «
Heraclitus, also known as "The Dark One" (ὁ Σκοτεινός); Fragment DK22B53, ca. 500 BCE.
This fosters "the unanimity of the masses of people, which is especially clearly outlined in this period when resolving any military or political issues," leading to rapid dissemination of movements: "the astonishing speed of the spread of popular uprisings and mass [social] movements in general." However, this surge can devolve into extremes, as "mass movements of people usually undergo abnormal deviations. Sometimes the height of the struggle reveals the entire vast area of human madness, instability and passion. Elemental violence, bitterness, frenzy, thirst for revenge, epidemics of murder, panic, pogroms, devastating raids, desperate battles, mass exterminations, bloodbaths, as well as uprisings, mutinies, coupled with the manifestation of fanaticism and heroism — reach their apogee."
Major revolutions align with Solar Maximums, e.g.: 1775–1783 American War of Independence (Cycle 2), 1789 French Revolution (Cycle 3), 1910 Mexican Revolution (Cycle 14), 1906 and 1917 Russian Revolutions (Cycles 14–15), 1959 Cuban Revolution (Cycle 19), 1979
Revolution in Iran and Nicaragua (Cycle 21), Soviet collapse in 1989–91 (Cycle 22), 1998-2001 Revolution in Venezuela (Cycle 23), Arab Spring 2011 (Cycle 24), 2024 MIGA-MAGA Revolution (Cycle 25).
Contemporary events in 2025, amid elevated sunspot activity, resonate with these dynamics. Geopolitically, persistent conflicts such as the NATO-Russia war in Ukraine, the wars in and around Palestine and Sudan exhibit intensified diplomatic pressures for ceasefires, reflecting Chizhevsky's notion of resolving "world-historical problems." The fall of Assad's regime in Syria has spurred migrations and regional realignments, akin to the "migrations etc., creating new formations in the existence of separate states." Escalations in nuclear proliferation, space security, and hybrid warfare underscore the phase's potential for "devastating raids" and "mass exterminations."
Phase IV: Decreasing excitability (mid-2028 – December 2030): This phase matches NOAA's Declining/Falling Phase, with waning sunspots and field preparation for reversal, representing ~15% of events per Figure 1. It fosters resolution and fatigue:
"The period of decline in excitability is, as it were, an echo of the stormy period of struggle and unrest that preceded it, the highest degree of tension of which has already passed, and a general need for calm and peace is felt. If there is a war, its heat gradually dies down, sluggishness is observed in military actions, their tempo slows down.
» The depressive state of the masses. «
[...] Leaders, commanders, orators lose those forces that in the preceding period fettered the masses and forced them to obedience. The masses are already subject to suggestion with difficulty. [...] This lack of unanimity in the 4th period of the historiometric cycle can be called a stumbling block on which any newly-begun uprising, any mass activity risks being wrecked, since concentrated action, due to the reduction and relaxation of the connecting forces, becomes impossible.
[...] Finally, the general decline in excitability is replaced by a psycho-physical state that can be called enervation. Popular assemblies and representations are dispersed without protest, uprisings are easily suppressed, wars do not flare up, and also peace negotiations are mechanically caused by the depressive state of the masses of people, which is often facilitated by physical exhaustion and fatigue."
Regarding the economic and financial realm during the remainder of Solar Cycle 25 into around 2030, Helioeconomist Aleksander Valkov recently put forth the following forecast: Given that Solar Cycle 25 reached a stronger-than-expected maximum around 2024–2025, his HELI index indicates that the current global economic expansion has already peaked or is in its final stage. The model forecasts an accelerating contraction phase leading into a major multicycle trough centered on the early 2030s—precisely the period when the next solar minimum is expected. Leonty Miroshnichenko's findings support Valkov's correlation: "On average, the difference between the peaks and troughs of solar activity and economic cycles does not exceed six months." Furthermore, historical analysis shows that 88% of recessions since the 1800s and 100% of major financial crises occurred during the downturn of sunspot cycles.
Reference:
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!["Figure 1: Percentage ratio of occurrences of historical events to years and periods of the [11-year solar] cycle. Average output for 500 years (15th –20th centuries)." According to Chizhevsky, each solar cycle divides into four phases: (I) Minimum Excitability (~3 years, 5% of "historical events" per Figure 1), (II) Growth Excitability (~2.5 years, 20% of events), (III) Maximum Excitability (~3 years, 60% of events), and (IV) Decline Excitability (~2.5 years, 15% of events).](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg585YvME7nFr98TPTc-HkS-XRo3bGd_EE6nBXqap9_02_LZKzjbWGGpAq748j4g0ydyDMsvOxfzBaQMNreqXqwZHqLi9gP2w40V79abGBfSWfpv3G7OsCeVcgd5ULOoxH0viXjQr-FJXgvdilQZjB3GPyXYMakiEjSrjDS992WJyJY_wWJ1yhOwbtjY-Wq/s507/11year%20cycle.PNG "\"Figure 1: Percentage ratio of occurrences of historical events to years and periods of the [11-year solar] cycle. Average output for 500 years (15th –20th centuries).\" According to Chizhevsky, each solar cycle divides into four phases: (I) Minimum Excitability (~3 years, 5% of \"historical events\" per Figure 1), (II) Growth Excitability (~2.5 years, 20% of events), (III) Maximum Excitability (~3 years, 60% of events), and (IV) Decline Excitability (~2.5 years, 15% of events).")
![The basis of the above is the unanimity of the masses of people, which is especially clearly outlined in this period when resolving any military or political issues. [...] This brings with it various phenomena characteristic of any struggle, and mass movements of people usually undergo abnormal deviations. Sometimes the height of the struggle reveals the entire vast area of human madness, instability and passion.](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja2FehMVITjUcYCRtwXIY_XMpSfLumjuFk6clHSTGs48uV5ZHeeqGApkqWtPReCnPAd8HbStDDI4oBAIQaLEGKJQjuUOINNIjuVSW5Y-GJs9UKK_tD19SI1sHCLTkenklTBlfoVZXHYIjcTP6ur5r7x5yF-ecYMGz4DKlE2dbPpQxw_E8ItkEfYgA54s3y/s770/000_338J4M6-1.jpg "The basis of the above is the unanimity of the masses of people, which is especially clearly outlined in this period when resolving any military or political issues. [...] This brings with it various phenomena characteristic of any struggle, and mass movements of people usually undergo abnormal deviations. Sometimes the height of the struggle reveals the entire vast area of human madness, instability and passion.")
