Showing posts with label Cycles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cycles. Show all posts

Monday, April 7, 2025

Hurst Time-Price Cycle Analysis for the S&P 500 & NASDAQ │ David Hickson

For the S&P 500, the target for the 20-day cycle bottom was 5,812. We are currently in a bearish 80-day cycle, with a downside target set at 4,660. It has been 528 days since the 18-month cycle trough in October 2023. 
 
 S&P 500 (weekly bars).
In both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, the 40-day cycle trough is likely to occur 
next week around April 14-18, and the 18-month cycle trough around mid-May.

The average duration of an 18-month cycle is 546 days, meaning we still have some time before the 18-month cycle trough is expected. We anticipate that this upcoming trough around mid-May will be more significant than a typical 18-month cycle.

 NASDAQ (daily bars).

In the NASDAQ, the situation is similar. We are heading toward a major cycle trough, expected around mid-May. A 40-day cycle trough is likely to occur sometime next week (April 14-18).

 
See also:

Sunday, April 6, 2025

DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2 | Martin Armstrong

Comment by Joe: Marty, I have now heard it all. When I asked why the stock market crashed, I was not told it was tariffs. I was told that “Armstrong told his clients there would be a Panic at the end of March to the first week of April. All the huge wealth funds are Armstrong’s clients.” I guess they flipped a coin. Heads, Trump did it; tails, Armstrong did it. [...]

DJIA Panic Cycle kicks in during the week of April 28 - May 2
followed by Directional Change in the week of May 12 - 16.

Reply by Martin Armstrong
: Look, the computer from the start of this year pointed to the last week of March and the first week of April. That was well before the tariff announcement. Trump’s tariffs are opening doors, not closing them. Maybe the smart ones figured that out and turned to me. These people can blame me as always. I think the difference this time is that we have opened
Socrates so the entire world can see it. [...] Everyone knows this is not my personal opinion. [...] It’s Just Time.

 

Friday, April 4, 2025

10-Day Cycle Expected to Bottom on Tuesday, April 8, Around 8:30 a.m.

Bank of America technician Paul Ciana notes that while April has historically been a strong month, "over the last ten years, the SPX trended down in April and bounced back in May," but week 2 of April has been up 72% of the time.
 
 BoA Paul Ciana: Week 2 of April up 72% of the time.
 
S&P 500 (30-Minute Bars).
Hurst's nominal 10-Day Cycle points to a low on Tuesday, April 8 around 8:30 a.m.
Week 3 of the 3-Week Cycle (click HERE).

SPY (Monthly Bars).
42-Month Kitchin Cycle, 18-Month Cycle, Premium-Discount Levels, and Buy Zone. 
Please note, David Hickson expects the current 18-Month Cycle to bottom around May-June;
three monthly pushes from the breakout to the downside (click HERE).
 
 
 

 CNN Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear.
 
April 4, 2025 @ 4.27 = lowest since May 11, 2022 @ 4.03. 
 
 Bloomberg: Nasdaq 100 dropped 20% and is now in a Bear Market.
 
BoA Michael Hartnett: S&P 500 buying levels now at 4,800-5,000. 
 

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

Are Metals Kicking Off the Next Commodity Supercycle? | Alex Krainer

Market analysts tend to attribute great significance to the price of copper as an important leading economic indicator: if demand for copper is rising, the economy is growing (and vice versa). For that reason, they pay close attention to what "Dr. Copper" is saying. But last week, Gold also made new all time highs at around $3,050/oz. Silver rallied quite strongly as well, but it's still trading well below its ATH price, which was just shy of $50/tr.oz. in April of 2011. Here is what the whole COMEX metals complex looks like:
 
 COMEX Metals Complex (January 01, 2021 = 100)
 
There has been an overall rising trend in the metals, building gradually from late 2023. However, platinum barely moved thus far and palladium actually dropped by more than half in the last four years. The rise in Gold, Silver and Copper may be driven by inflation fears rather than economic growth. Those three metals are investors' preferred inflation hedges. Inflation hedging demand is likely what's behind the upward pressure on prices. 
 
Europe's great rearmament frenzy and the hundreds of billions of euros being allocated for it might end up adding more upward pressure to prices of industrial metals, as well as energy. In all, this will end up giving a strong boost to commodity price inflation in what could end up being a self-reinforcing cycle, triggering the next leg in the widely anticipated commodity supercycle.

US Commodity Price Index (1795 to Present)
with Major Inflation Peaks (Red Dots) & Major Inflation Troughs (Blue Dots).
Shown as 10 Year Rolling Compound Growth Rate with Polynomial Trend at Tops & Bottoms.

Long commodity cycles suggest that currency debasement and inflation may peak in the early 2040s. A commodity supercycle could reach its peak by 2045 (indicated by the last red dot), following a long cycle wave that spans approximately 55 years, with each cycle growing 5 years longer over the past 200 years. This pattern implies that the next peak will occur around 2045, 65 years after the peak in 1980.

None of this will happen overnight: the commodity supercycle is expected to span a period of 10 to 25 years, and it will be marked with many price rallies, followed by corrections and consolidations in that time. It should therefore be navigated with due caution and an iron discipline.

 

Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Monday, January 20, 2025

How Markets Move: The Natural Cycle of Range Change │ Larry Williams

Markets typically shift from small ranges to larger trend moves. When the market is in a large trend move, wait for it to settle into smaller ranges before getting involved. This gives more reliable setups when the market trends again. Market tops generally occur when the price closes well off its low, while market bottoms happen when the price closes near its low. Most traders get emotional during these times, buying at tops and selling at bottoms. Once you understand this, it becomes easier to make smarter trades.

Small Ranges Beget Large Ranges. Large Ranges Beget Small Ranges.


Markets move from congestion to creation (expansion), transitioning from small ranges to larger, more defined trend moves. A small range signals buildup, and a large range signals an impending trend. If I see a small net change from open to close, I know a large trend move is likely coming and am prepared to act on it. Here’s an example using the NASDAQ: Notice how volume fluctuates throughout the day: heavy volume in the morning, a dip in the middle, and a surge towards the end. 

"U" shaped intraday: Heavy volume in the morning, a dip in the middle, a surge at the end.

This pattern is consistent across markets. It’s like a freeway: traffic is heavy in the morning, dies down in the middle of the day, and picks up in the afternoon. Understanding this helps day traders identify opportunities in the morning and towards the end of the day, while avoiding the midday lull. Volume drives range, and large ranges happen at the start and end of the day. This is when short-term traders make money. We need volatility and large ranges to profit.

 There are three key cycles in market behavior: 
(1) small range/large range, (2) moving closes within ranges, and (3) closes opposite openings. 
All three cycles work equally well in any timeframe and market.
"Do yourself a big favor: Mark off all the large-range days [in the chart above], and then study the size of the ranges just
prior to explosive up-and-down days. See what I see? We are given ample warning of virtually every large-range day 
by the shrinkage of ranges a few days earlier."

The key takeaway for short-term traders is that not every day offers a high-probability trade. You need to identify days with potential for explosive moves and not expect large profits daily. It’s about finding that opportunity.

As for market tops, they usually occur when prices close near their highs, and bottoms happen when prices close near their lows. Focus on these closing patterns to determine when to buy and sell.

Trend is a function of time. The more time in a trade, the more opportunity for trend.

The most important insight in trading is that trends are the basis of all profits. Without a trend, there are no profits. But what causes trends? Trends are fundamentally a function of time—the more time you hold a trade, the more opportunity for a trend to develop. The challenge with day trading is that trends occur only about 15% of the time. Most of the time, prices are consolidating, making it difficult to catch a big trend move. Limiting yourself to a few hours of trading only targets that small window when trends are likely to occur.

 My Day Trade Secret: HTTC - Hold To The Close.

The day trader dilemma is that they have limited time to catch trends. Holding positions overnight allows you to capture longer trends and larger profits. A small bet with the potential for a big move is the key advantage of holding positions over time. 
 
 » How you know a large trend move is coming. «
 
Many day traders are afraid to hold positions overnight. However, if you do the math, you'll see that most market moves happen between the close of one day and the open of the next. Moves within the day are often smaller and less reliable. For short-term traders, the key to success is recognizing large range days and holding positions to the close. This is how you catch a big move during the day.
 
 
 » Hold To The Close. « 
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars).
 Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days and Inside Bar Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days.

 Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days and Inside Bar Narrow Range 4 & 7 Days.

See also:

Monday, January 13, 2025

Hurst Cycles Forecast Bearish Q1 for S&P 500 & NASDAQ │ David Hickson

The first quarter of 2025 is expected to be bearish for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Following the 40-day cycle trough observed in early December, the S&P 500 is expected to form a 80-day cycle trough around mid-January, i.e., this week.
 
 S&P 500 down into late March or early April.

A significant cycle trough in the first few months of 2025 is anticipated, likely around March or April. The price action as it exits the 80-day cycle trough will be crucial in determining the strength of the recovery or the continuation of the bearish trend.

 NASDAQ down into May.

The NASDAQ's 20-week cycle trough was formed in mid-December, and a significant 18-month cycle trough is expected around May 2025. A weak bounce from this week's low would indicate further bearish movement into May.

Sunday, January 12, 2025

2025 Gold Forecast │ Namzes

Big picture: November 3, 2022, marked the 8-year cycle low in Gold, and we are currently in a secular bull market. The overall trend, which shows an upward bias from Q2 2025 onwards, is illustrated below:


The positioning of the current 4-year cycle low is challenging to determine, as the cycle is irregular and not as robust as in other markets. The average 4-year cycle, shown below, suggests a low occurring in spring 2025. However, as seen, this cycle exhibits significant variation. The best estimate is that, if it does occur, it will likely be in March 2025, featuring a rapid sell-off and recovery rather than a prolonged bottoming process:


The 18-month cycle also exhibits some variation, with two potential paths shown. The last low occurred in October 2023, meaning that either November 14 marked the low, OR the low is still ahead, potentially in spring 2025, which could coincide with the 4-year cycle low:


The shorter, tradable composite cycle is shown in red. The bottom panel displays statistics for the individual cycles. The 40-day cycle is expected to peak and then move downward into the January open, followed by an upward movement into the early February 20-week cycle peak. This period also marks the seasonal peak, when the topping window opens:


Seasonality is shown below with high-confidence zones. The topping window opens in early February, with the seasonal low occurring in the third week of March. Additionally, there is a high-confidence zone from July 26 to September 2, during which the market has risen in 85% of the past 26 years:


The most similar years (though based on a small sample size) experienced some consolidation followed by a move higher, with an 87% correlation:


Conclusion: Gold is in a secular bull market, and the most likely short-term path is as follows: consolidation for a week leading into the January 17 OpEx, followed by an upward move into early February. After that, the market is expected to decline into the third week of March. The 2,400-2,450 range provides strong technical support for any correction. From there, the market is likely to move higher, with the July 26 to September 2 period being a high-confidence zone. The next upside target is 3,000+ in the second half of 2025, with 2006 serving as the best proxy year (shown in purple):

 Consolidation into January 17 OpEx – up into early February – decline into third week of March
(2,400-2,450 strong support) – up into July 26 to September 2 top (3,000+ target) – steep decline in Q4 – up into mid 2026.

 

Markets Amidst Trump 2.0: Geopolitics & Geoeconomics in 2025 | Simon Hunt

In recent years, I have analyzed several long-term cycles, including demographic, economic, weather, war, inflation, and interest rate cycles. To my surprise, they all appear to converge around 2028. While geopolitical tensions will likely remain tense in 2025, the ultimate crisis may emerge as these cycles align.


Continuing US Economic Decline and Stock Market Crash by September 2025
The US economy is weaker than portrayed. Employment data, revised down for the first quarter, shows a likely weak second quarter, with retail sales, adjusted for inflation, declining last year. Big US companies will be laying off thousands. The Biden administration has inflated economic indicators, but the reality is far bleaker.

 S&P 500 Bull-Trap Reversal, Rotation Fragility, and Cycle Risk in 2025.

I anticipate a sharp stock market drop by September 2025, with the S&P 500, the NASDAQ and tech stocks (Mag 7) falling by 20% to 40%, respectively. By Q4, Trump’s policies—tax cuts, deregulation—will take effect, and governments will likely respond with fiscal and monetary stimulus. Over the next few years, equity, base metal, and precious metal markets may surge. This will be highly inflationary, possibly mirroring the 1980s, when US CPI surpassed 13% and global inflation hit 15%. The key question will be the impact on long-term bond yields. Bond vigilantes will likely push 10-year US Treasury yields into double digits, with similar trends globally (excluding China), leading to a crash in asset prices, especially in an already highly leveraged system with a 360% debt-to-GDP ratio. 
 
The primary drivers of inflation are excess liquidity and rising wages, along with a trend where a larger share of wages is being allocated to capital on corporate balance sheets. I expect US CPI to remain elevated, with the official CPI possibly reaching 13%, mirroring 1980 levels. However, John Williams of Shadow Government Stats estimates the real CPI averaged 10.8% last year. This persistent inflation will push long-term interest rates into double digits, likely triggering a crash in the debt-laden global system. Comparing current inflation to the 1970s, we see a pattern of volatility, with asset prices potentially deflating before structural inflation resurges, driving CPI to double digits.

Empire Cycle, Risks of War, BRICS, and the Emergence of a Multipolar World Order
Today we have two major powers—one established (US), the other emerging (China)—each with conflicting goals. One seeks to maintain global dominance, while the other rejects that vision. The only resolution could be through a significant crisis, possibly war. Afterward, we might see the emergence of a multipolar world, but this will likely take place in the early to mid-2030s, once we’ve gone through the crisis. The empire cycle, as outlined by voices like Ray Dalio, typically culminates in revolutions, internal conflicts, and proxy wars, followed by political and debt restructuring before a new world order emerges.
 
 Geopolitical tensions will continue to simmer through 2027,
with open conflict likely not breaking out until 2028.

The current geopolitical and geoeconomic picture is shaped by several major cycles: Since 1991, and potentially as far back as 1946, the US has sought to weaken Russia in order to control its vast natural resources. Simultaneously, China has emerged as America’s primary competitor, and to maintain hegemony, the US must constrain its rise. A related theme is Washington’s growing concern over the BRICS nations, which, if they mature into a serious rival, could undermine US dominance, particularly over the dollar. The war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East fit into this broader geopolitical strategy. Israel has long served as America’s foothold in the Persian Gulf, and a key aim of Trump’s foreign policy could be to disrupt the China-Russia alliance while isolating Iran, given their strong ties. The US has already made progress in Brazil, where key ministries are anti-BRICS and pro-Washington, with President Lula aware of the risks of opposing the US. Despite potential challenges for BRICS under Brazil’s leadership, the group’s recent expansion with Indonesia’s full membership is a significant shift, especially in South Asia.

Geopolitical concerns are at the forefront for many investors, and they’re my primary worry. It’s not a matter of if war will happen, but when. Geopolitical tensions will continue to simmer through 2027, with open conflict likely not breaking out until 2028, though this is my best-case scenario. In the worst-case scenario, Israel, after defeating Hamas and Hezbollah, may decide to attack Iran. In response, Iran would retaliate with overwhelming force, using advanced missile technology, including hypersonic missiles, capable of bypassing Israeli and US defense systems. While the risk of war is high before 2028, I believe open conflict will likely occur no sooner than then.
 
Weather Cycles, Severe Drought in the US in 2025, and Global Food Supply Shortages by 2026
However, one cycle that remains largely unaddressed but could disrupt Trump’s domestic agenda is the weather cycle. This cycle, particularly the Gleissberg cycle, a 90-year pattern, is aligning with US drought cycles for the first time since the 1930s. This could mirror the impact of the Dust Bowl. As the cycle begins to take effect this year, reports from areas like Pennsylvania indicate food shortages—beef and chicken in particular—which could drive soaring food prices by 2026. This will pose significant challenges for Trump’s efforts to regenerate America, especially considering the global nature of this issue, as the US is a major food exporter.

Shawn Hackett on weather cycles, their relationship to price action in agricultural commodities,
and the potential for a major drought in the US in 2025 based on the 89-year Gleissberg cycle. (see also [HERE])

The weather disruptions are linked to a shift in the Atlantic Ocean’s cycle, transitioning from a 40-year warming phase to a cooling phase starting in 2025. Historical parallels show that this cooling period could cause extreme weather, including shorter growing seasons and disrupted food production. Additionally, the Sun’s quiet phase, along with the 60-year Yoshimura planetary temperature cycle and the 90-year Gleissberg cycle, will likely exacerbate these effects, creating a pattern of climate instability not seen since the early 1600s. This emerging cycle, largely overlooked, could lead to global food supply shortages and soaring food prices, impacting markets, debt, and interest rates.

Two-Year Commodity Boom: Rising Food, Crude Oil, Copper, and Gold Prices
Food prices are expected to rise sharply, and by 2026, oil prices are likely to increase despite efforts by President Trump. Disruptions, such as sanctions on Iran, could lead to China sourcing oil from Russia instead. By 2028, oil prices could surpass $150. Once inflation cycles begin, they often become self-perpetuating as people hedge by buying in advance and companies stockpile goods. For example, copper prices could double from $7,000 to $14,000 by late 2027, reflecting the inflationary dynamics at play.
 
While commodities are underperforming equities, they are relatively cheap and primed for a rebound, especially with inflationary pressures. Precious metals have already shown strength, and sectors like energy and food may follow, particularly if weather disruptions occur. Although we won't enter a supercycle until the early 2030s, we could see a two-year commodity boom. This period will set the stage for a return to 4% global GDP growth, marking the true supercycle.

 Although we won't enter a Commodity Supercycle until the early 2030s
we could see a two-year commodity boom.

Gold had a remarkable 40% rise last year, signaling inflation concerns and currency instability. Central banks are diversifying into tangible assets like gold, and both China and Russia hold significant, underreported gold reserves. If China’s currency faces pressure, it could announce gold backing, possibly from its 25,000 tons of gold. Russia holds about 12,000 tons. The BRICS nations may also introduce a gold-backed currency in the next five years, further driving gold's upward trajectory over the next decade.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Decline to 0.90 by the End of 2025, and as Low as 0.65 by 2028
The dollar, often referred to as the "king of currencies," is expected to peak around 110 on the dollar index in the coming months before beginning a decline. By the end of 2025, it may hover closer to 0.90, and by 2026, closer to 0.80. By 2028, the dollar could fall as low as 0.65, marking a substantial decline ahead. Policies such as trade tariffs could impact the dollar, with some close to the Trump camp suggesting he may favor a weaker dollar to boost exports. However, the broader trend is clear: increasing trade among BRICS nations, excluding the dollar, will reduce demand for the currency.

China's Economic Recovery in 2025 and Bull Market into 2028
Despite recent challenges, the Chinese equity market has surged, suggesting potential for an inflection point. A key shift in China is the transition to collective decision-making, moving away from President Xi’s sole influence, likely driving fiscal and monetary expansion. I expect a sharp recovery in China’s economy in the latter half of 2025, boosting global performance. The Shanghai Composite will likely mirror global market trends—approaching a peak, followed by a correction, and then a bull market into 2028. Despite negative narratives, China’s consumer spending is up 10%, and the property market appears to be bottoming out. Consumption patterns are shifting, but not necessarily unfavorably.
 
 
See also: