Hurst Cycle Projection for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 | David Hickson

 

There is uncertainty regarding the 20-day cycle trough's exact timing. The average length for this cycle is 17 days. Positioning the trough on August 22 aligns better with the 40-day cycle, which should be forming around September 9.

 

In the NASDAQ, similar trends are observed. The crest of the red dashed line of the Hurst Cycle Composite is around Quadruple Witching Friday, September 20 ± a few trading days.

Reference:
David Hickson (September 9, 2024) - The 40-Day Trough - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 5, 2024) - S&P 500 September 2024 Seasonality.

Wayne Whaley (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October.

Robert Miner (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500 Uptrend May Extend to 5,800 Into Equinox. 

Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025 | Sergey Tarassov

 » DJIA correction begun, and the 41 Month Kitchin Cycle suggests a decline until the end of 2025. «  
 —  Sergey Tarassov, August 5, 2024.

 

» Multiyear High in the DJIA between June and October 2024, i.e. sometime
between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle.  «    
 —  Sergey Tarassov, June 25, 2024.

Reference:
Sergey Tarassov (August 5, 2024) - Tune Up 41 Month Kitchin Cycle for DJIA. (video)
Sergey Tarassov (June 25, 2024) - Review of Forecasts for DJIA, Gold, Bitcoin, IOC and Mexican Peso. (video)

 2024 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table: » Major Panic - CRASH! «

 

Panic Cycles Week July 15 - 19 & Week September 9 - 13.

—  Martin Armstrong, June 14, 2024.

 

S&P 500 Slide Until September 18th & Potential Rally to 25th | Allen Reminick

As of September 4 (Wed), lower prices on the S&P 500 are expected. The market should decline further until September 12 (Thu), potentially hitting another low around September 18 (Wed). A rally is anticipated from then until September 23 (Mon) or 25 (Wed).

Historical patterns from 2000 and 2007 suggest similar market behavior, including a likely 50 basis point Fed rate cut around September 18-19 (Wed-Thu), which might initially seem bullish but could be bearish in the long run. A 10% decline might occur before the election, with a possible bounce post-election.

Reference:
Allen Reminick (September 5, 2024) - S&P Down Until 9-18-24. (video)

Precious Metals Setting Up for a False Move? | Martin Armstrong

When we look at precious metals, one would expect this is the long-awaited breakout for gold. Yet there is something amiss. The Yearly Array still points to a Turning Point here: 2024 with a Directional Change. That would imply that we may be looking at an important high come Monday if we reach at least 2673, or making highs after Monday may lead to the final high on August 28th, which may be more likely. The major resistance stands at the 2800 level. However, the initial target resistance for this coming week stands at 2573, 2589, 2695, and 2705.

 

Platinum is not following gold and implies it may yet test support into 2025 before a rally unfolds. Note that we have a Directional Change here in 2024 as well. However, it appears to be a low forming in 2025 and a shift to the upside thereafter.

 

 

When we turn to the Silver/Gold Ratio, we see a Double-Directional Change in 2024. The Stochastic is starting to turn down, implying that gold may decline, but silver will gain on the ratio. This is pointing to a more sustainable bull market in the years ahead [...]

 

Before a sustainable bull market exists, there is always the FALSE MOVE; in this case, it looks to be shaping up to the downside. This may present an important buying opportunity as we head into the election.

Quoted from:
Martin A. Armstrong (August 18, 20124) - The Metals Setting Up for a False Move? 

 

User Manual for Martin Armstrong's Socrates Platform, January 2019. 

Feigenbaum Cycle Potential Key Date = August 4 or 9, 2024 | LunaticTrader

In the recent years the 666 week and 666 day cycles have done a good job in pointing out market highs and lows. See this post from 2021 about the Feigenbaum cycle. And this post from 2023, which indicated the summer high as well as the early winter low in that year: 666 Again. Another key date was mentioned in this second article, August 9, 2024.

 

 

The long term 666 week cycle peaked on January 4, 2022, only a few weeks after the December 10 key date we had pointed out in the original article. As shown in the chart, 666 days before that came the covid crash. If we take exactly 666 days then we find March 9, 2020. That became known as Black Monday and was also the day when Italy announced a countrywide lockdown, the first country to do so. So that was the main panic day of the Covid crash. The 282 day decline from the early 2022 peak allowed us to project three more key dates. Late July 2023 became a market peak, followed by a bottom just before the November 1, 2023 date our 666 day cycle indicated. That leaves us with August [4 or ] 9, 2024, the next upcoming key date.

Quoted from:

Dan Van den Berghe a.k.a. LunaticTrader (July 15, 2024) - Potential Key Date.

S&P 500 vs Tri-Annual, Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly & Daily Pivot Levels

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (weekly candles) vs Tri-Annual Pivot Levels (for 2022-2024).

Based on spectrum analysis, Sergey Tarassov forcasted a multiyear high in US-stocks sometime 

around August 2024 between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle. 

By then the tri-annual R1 level at 6,019 could well be reached. R2 is at 6,928.

 

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (weekly candles) vs Yearly Pivot Levels (for 2024).
Tri-Annual and Yearly Pivot Points and Levels are suitable for long-term investing or swing trading

with a time frame of several months to a year or more.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (weekly candles) vs Quarterly Pivot Levels (for Q3 July-September 2024).
Quarterly Pivot Points and Levels are suitable for medium-term trading with a time frame of several 

weeks to a few months. They are useful for identifying intermediate support and resistance levels, 

trend continuations, and potential corrections.

.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily candles) vs Monthly Pivot Levels (for (July 2024).
Monthly Pivot Points and Levels are ideal for short-term to medium-term trading 

with a time frame of several days to a few weeks.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily candles) vs Weekly Pivot Levels (for July 07-12, 2024).
Weekly Pivot Points and Levels are suitable for short-term trading with a time frame of one to several

days to a week, to identify short-term support and resistance levels, trend continuations, and potential reversals.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4 hour candles) vs Daily Pivot Levels (for July 10, 2024).
Daily Pivot Points and Levels are ideal for short-term and intraday trading with a time frame of several hours to a day in order to identify short-term support and resistance levels, trend reversals, and potential breakouts. Daily Pivots can be used to make quick trading decisions, adjust stop-losses, or set price targets for the current trading session.

 

Pivot Points, Support and Resistance levels are calculated based on previous high, low, and close prices. These levels can identify areas, where price may bounce, reverse or break through, and where to set entry, stop-loss and take-profit orders. This technique is valid on various timeframes. Common types are Floor (Trader) Pivots a.k.a. Standard or Traditional Pivots (= all charts above), Central Pivot Range (CPR), Fibonacci, Woodie, Classic, Camarilla and DeMark Pivot Points, each type having their own calculation method.

 

Reference:
Franklin O. Ochoa Jr. (2010) - Secrets of a Pivot Boss.

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 10, 2024) - Soaring NASDAQ Approaching End of Midyear Rally.

2024 DJIA vs 40 & 42 Month Cycles | Sergey Tarassov

Multiyear High in the DJIA between now and October 2024, i.e. sometime 

between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle (August 2024).

 

Reference:

 Sergey Tarassov (June 25, 2024) - Review of Forecasts for DJIA, Gold, Bitcoin, IOC and Mexican Peso. (video)

Sergey Tarassov (October 14, 2022) - 40 and 42 months Kitchin economical cycles - case study. (video)

High in US-Stocks July 3-5 and Small Pullback into July 14-26 | Allen Reminick

Today is June 24th. The market is still very bullish. I am looking for a small pullback starting around July 3rd or July 5th-9th lasting into July 14th-26th. Another rally - possibly to new highs - into late August should follow before a 5 to 10 percent correction into early October and potentially into the US election around November 5th or 6th.

Note: So far Professor Reminick's projections in 2024 were all wrong.

After the election I expect the market going up again at least to the end of 2024 and potentially into May or August of 2025. If the high came in now in July-August, it would be about 5,700; if it comes in next year, it could be way higher than 6,000.

Quoted from:
Allen Reminick (June 25, 2024) - The Extra Special Sauce for S&P Bullishness Now; Swing Traders Take Note. (video)

The Sixth Wave and 2032.95 | Martin Armstrong

Here is the Economic Confidence Model at the very high end to all the questions about how high up the fractal structure can be defined.

 Martin Armstrong's Fractal Design of Time.

We are in the grand Public Wave overall that peaks in 2032.95. This is the equivalent of the wave that picked the Peak of Rome in 175 AD. So here, too, this is a wave where the government will fight very hard to hold control, for that is the dominant 309.6 character, while the final wave on the next fractal level is a Private Wave of 51.6 years. This is the people fighting back as they lose confidence in the government. The two forces are at war right now. The worse the environment becomes for the people, the more authoritarian governments will become. Each wave of 8.6 also alters back and forth between Public and Private.

This is why I warn it is time to try to reduce the amplitude by waking up. We achieved this briefly with the Age of Enlightenment. Government then fought back and reclaimed control. We replaced monarchy with ministers. Nothing changed otherwise. We will fight the good fight once again and seek to triumph with a new age of Enlightenment. Will we win? Who knows. But we have to try. What comes after 2032 is a private wave – the opportunity to reclaim our liberty once again. Here is that chart.

 

 » It has been propaganda that we live under a democracy. The people have no right to vote on critical issues.  

Republics historically are the most corrupt forms of government. «

The last Sixth Wave marked the peak of the Roman Empire. Every historian has drawn the line to mark the beginning of the Fall of Rome took place with the death of Marcus Aurelius in 180 AD. Talk about almost getting to a new age, he sent an ambassador to China. This has been revealed by books from the Tang Dynasty. The East and West knew each other. Merchants ran the trade routes. This would have been the beginning of a major global economy back in 180 AD. Marcus’ death ended the golden age and expansion of the world economy. He was followed by his crazy son, Commodus. With the death of Commodus, the Praetorian Guard actually auctioned off the position of emperor to the highest bidder. Since he was just nuts, they got to rule Rome, and it went to the heads, to the point that corruption was in the open.

 

» Our idea of managing our political-social-economy. «

I have told the story of how I used to meet with people who wanted to run for President at the behest of those in the Republican Party. Then in 1999, I was asked to fly down to Texas to meet with George Bush, Jr. I was told that this was different. They had me meet with various potential candidates to vet them out and give my opinion if they could handle the job from understanding the global economy. So what was different with Bush, Jr., was the fact they told me he was “stupid.” I was shocked. I asked why would you want to make someone stupid president? I was told he had the “name.” That is when they asked me to be the chief economist in the White House. I declined, for our business was way too global for that. They told me the plan was to surround him with good people. That is how Cheney took the role of President and moved his office in the White House.

 » The 8.6 year frequency is fractal in nature and it may indeed 

work from different dates other than the formal dates we show on the ECM. «

I have been told similar traits with Obama. He was told they would let him play with the social stuff but leave everything else to them. The bureaucracy tasted power under Bush, and they were not about to let that go. Obama missed more than 60% of his daily security briefings. Biden is, at best, a part-time president who no one believes is truly running the nation because he simply is not mentally capable of doing so. This is the Praetorian Guard running the world.

Quoted from:
Martin A. Armstrong (June 4, 2024) - The Major Fractal Wave of the Economic Confidence Model & 2032.95.

 

» By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. «

The 18 Year Economic Cycle │Akhil Patel

Akhil Patel was the special guest presenter at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles' June 3 'Masters Working Group' interactive session. Author of 'The Secret Wealth Advantage', Patel discusses how the 18 year cycle affects the markets and how it can transform investing strategies. Patel is one of the world’s leading experts in economic, financial, and property cycles. He has been working for over a decade to produce unique research that combines an in- depth understanding of business, real estate, and stock market cycles. 

 

Reference:
Akhil Patel (June 4, 2024) - Significance of the 18-Year Cycle. (video)

 

See also:
The 18.6 Year Real Estate Cycle.  

2024 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table.

S&P 500 Update - High May 23-30 & Low June 13 | Allen Reminick

Today is May 27th, and in the very short term the S&P may just stay up for a couple of more days, possibly even with a new high on May 30th.

 From around July 4th high a big break into the July 16th or 24th potential lows (C wave).

Then we are looking for a breakdown into June 3rd and June 13th lows (Elliott Wave A). This will be followed by a choppy, sideways-to-up rally until roughly the July 4th weekend (B wave). 

 

 Allen Reminick - May 14, 2024.

Then there should be a big break into the 16th or the 24th of July potential lows (C wave). The last part of July is where most of the damage could be done.

Quoted from:
Allen Reminick (May 28, 2024) - Bitcoin Major High Coming for Swing Traders and Investors; S&P Update. (video)

See also:
Allen Reminick (May 14, 2024) - S&P 500 Major High May 23-24.

S&P 500 Cycles - Top May 25th [+/-] & Correction into Mid-June | Martin Biber

The medium-term cycle (orange) shows a top around the 25th of May [+/-]. The short-term cycle is topping and has another down-up move into the late May cycle top. After that, we should expect a two to five-week setback before a new uptrend starts.

 

 

[My approach only needs a few daily data points to adjust to a new situation.]

Quoted from:
Martin Biber (May 16, 2024) - S&P 500 Cycles - Short-Term Correction.

 

S&P 500 Major High on May 23-24 | Allen Reminick

After a high on Tuesday, May 14th the S&P 500 might go sideways to down into Monday, May 20th. The final swing up should occur between May 20th and May 23rd-24th, and could eventually reach above 5,330.

Next should be a first low on June 3rd and another one on June 13th, followed by a rally into June 25th or even through the July 4th weekend. The big move down should be right after July 4th and the more important intermediate swing low on July 24th-26th.

Even if the market now breaks for a couple of months, we are expecting 4,600 in the S&P 500 this year and the long-term uptrend to resume in August 2025.

Reference:
Allen Reminick (May 14, 2024) - S&P High is Near. (video) 

The S&P 500 and the Election Year Cycle | Robert Miner

I am recording this on April 25th and am going to talk about the S&P 500 and the election cycle today. [...] Within the next three weeks there is going to be one of the best setups within the entire election cycle. This is a setup that since 1952 had only one minor losing year (less than -1%). 

 

 

In the above chart the dark black line is the average of all election years since 1952. The gray line is the average of all election years since 1984. The red line is 2024 up to past week.

[...] The second chart just covers the beginning of March through September period of the election years. The blue line is the average of all  election years since 1952. In the first chart we saw the entire year, where the first part of the year is usually fairly negative. On average, we can see this distinct dip into the middle of May.

[...] Here are just two key pieces of information from the election year study from the spring until the end of summer. Number one, the 'summer low' is usually made around the second half of May to the first half of June. So that summer low probably hasn't been made yet. It sort of implies that the S&P is likely to be sideways to down into the second half of May. At least that is based on the averages of election years. Number two, in every election year, when the first quarter was strongly bullish (which it was in 2024), the S&P traded above the March high by September 20th - except for the year 2000, when the summer high came within just seven points of the March high by September 20th.

If the S&P happens to be sideways to down for the next few weeks, we know that the bias is overwhelmingly strong and bullish and that the S&P should then trade above the March high before September 20th. The March high was the high of the year so far, and it is more than likely that the S&P will go sideways to down in the next few weeks. A correction would not be complete prior to May 23rd to 38% time retracement.

Quoted from:
Robert C. Miner (April 26, 2024) - The S&P and the Election Year Cycle. (video)

 

See also:

Robert C. Miner (January 31, 2024) - The Definitive Guide To The U.S. Election Cycle and Stock Market Trends.
Larry Williams (April 24, 2024) - S&P 500 Strength into May 1 & Weakness through Mid May.

Jeff Hirsch & Wayne Whaley (March 24, 2024) - S&P 500 March-April 2024 Seasonality. 

Michael J. Huddleston (March 2, 2024) - ICT Seasonality. 
Jeff Hirsch (December 26, 2023) - 2024 S&P 500 Election Year Seasonal Pattern.
TPR (December 13, 2023) - 2024 in the Presidential Cycle Pattern.

S&P 500 Strength into May 1st & Weakness through Mid May | Larry Williams

Larry Williams expects U.S. stock market strength through May 1 (Wed) and weakness to follow through the middle of May.

 

That weakness could be followed by a relief rally into early June, then another leg down in July. “I am heavily short here,” he says. He expects a strong end of the year as a rally gets under way in early September. 

Quoted from:
MarketWatch (April 23, 2024) - Ralph Acampora, Larry Williams and Vance Howard see market weakness ahead. 

 

See also:
Larry Williams (December 18, 2023) - 2024 US Stock Market Outlook.

Top Reasons to Exit S&P Short Positions Soon | Allen Reminick

The S&P market has been behaving as expected. It looks as if April 15 (Mon) or so could be a low followed by a bounce for a few days until April 18 (Thu) followed by another decline into the April 24 (Wed).

 

 Apr 15 (Mon) Major Low ?
Apr 18 (Thu) High
Apr 23-24 (Tue-Wed) Low

Bounce
May 9 (Thu) Major Low ?

May 24 (Fri) Major High
  Jul 24 (Wed) Major Low

 

Today is April 14 (Sun) and we're looking at this forecast as being very similar. But there are several different variations of this particular pattern. The most reliable one so far has been the year 2000 market. It is repeating almost exactly what happened in April of 2000 and that low came in on April 14. But we are looking for a low around April 23-24 (Tue-Wed), another bounce and another low around May 9 (Thu). The May 9th low may not be lower than the market is right now.

The analogs we're using are the year 2000, the 1996 market and the 2006 market. All of which are connected to the present market and you can see the overlap of the 1996 and the 2006 markets and how they go forward is extremely similar but not identical.

They both have a high late May, they both have a low late July. But from now until late May they have different variations on how they go forward. So at this point one needs to be cautious about expecting continued lower prices because the fourth wave does not have to be a big decline. It's after the Elliott fifth wave that you'd expect to see a major decline. 

 

After this whole correction phase is over we're expecting a new high by May 24 (Fri), a strong rally in the month of May and then after that a very big decline from May 24 (Fri) down into July 24 (Wed) area. That could be a very significant short position for those who want to go short or at least one once a hedge, one's long positions during that time. After that July low the market should again rebound strongly and by the end of the year make new highs.

So we're looking at a fourth wave correction which is probably going to end either in the next two weeks or it could be as late as May 9 (Thu) and then the fifth wave rally until late May followed by an ABC meaningful correction of the whole move from October 27th until May 24th that whole up move should be corrected in the two months after that. So if you're looking for a big decline it's not likely to happen now. It's more likely to happen after the end of May. 

 

Quoted from:
Allen Reminick (April 14, 2024) - Top Reasons to Exit S&P Short Positions SOON. (video)

 Solunar Rhythm, Cosmic Cluster Days & Sensitive Sun Degrees | April 2024

 

 

See also:
Tom McClellan (March 29, 2024) - Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for US Stock Market.

Prepare for April S&P Correction Now │ Allen Reminick

Short term, the S&P market is topping in the next two weeks.

We've been discussing the 18 year cycle and the 12 year cycle and the 24 year cycle, all having agreement since March 12th, where they all implied that the market would rally until Monday, March 25th or longer. There is a very good chance that is the beginning of a sideways phase that could last until as late as April 10th. We're not expecting a dramatic continuation on the upside. Potentially the market goes slightly higher between now and April 10th, but it's a topping phase. 

 

It's a down, up, down, up, down, up kind of pattern. And finally, in the later part of April, it should make a low. Between April 16th and the 24th of April. But it may gyrate and just do nothing much until it's ready to fall between April 10th and April 24th.

 

After that, of course, we're expecting to see further, higher prices until May 23rd , between 5,400 and 5,600. This could be completing the move that started October 27th of 2023.

Quoted from:
Allen Reminick (Mar 23, 2024) - Prepare for April S&P Correction Now. (video)