S&P 500 vs VIX Put/Call Ratio | Jason Goepfert

Volume in VIX puts was more than two times that of calls on Friday.
That's one of the highest turnovers in 15 years.
It has typically spiked at times of extreme anxiety.

Jason Goepfert, November 4, 2024.

 

 Preliminary CBOE Put/Call Volume Ratio on Nov. 4 at 2PM ET 

is officially "pretty far up there".

Tom McClellan, November 4, 2024.

 

 S&P Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections | Steve Miller, November 4, 2024.

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars) | November 4, 2024.

The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks | Lars von Thienen

The weekly S&P 500 shows that the nominal 180-week cycle, currently at 177 weeks, is in an early topping stage. This long-awaited time cycle has been monitored since the end of 2023 and has been cited as a key driver for the upturn lasting into this window. Now that we have arrived at this point, we need to pay close attention to the shorter-term cycles and technical indicators.

Weekly S&P 500 with nominal 180 weeks / 41-Month Kitchin Cycle topping | October 23, 2024

Before moving to the daily cycle analysis, it is worth noting that the cyclic-tuned RSI indicator has reached the upper band, indicating a "bull exhaustion" mode. This condition can turn within days into a "bulls tired" and/or "bulls exit" state, signaling that we are primed for a longer-term reversal. The same weekly cycles situation can be observed on the NASDAQ.

NASDAQ weekly cycles | October 23, 2024

Let's now examine the daily cycles, starting with the S&P 500 model.

 » The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. «

 S&P 500 daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The main cycles are the 192-day and the harmonic 89-day trading cycles. The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. The cRSI indicator shows we are nearing the upper band, which could also signal a final year-end rally before both daily cycles align with the downward-trending weekly cycle noted earlier. A similar perspective can be observed in the Nasdaq daily data.

Nasdaq Composite daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The shorter-term daily cycles with lengths of 80 and 200 trading days on the Nasdaq model are rolling over now and will likely continue into the end of 2024. These cycles are also coming into alignment with the next long-term downward swing, which is in sync with the long-term cycles shown earlier.

It's worth noting that we're seeing a divergence forming, as the market experienced a clear topping pattern in June of this year: At that time, the composite model peaked while the cRSI was breaking down below the upper band, issuing a sell signal. The price never went back to achieve a higher high, and the cRSI is indicating an even bigger divergence between the price action and the signal line. The technical indicators shown below have been adjusted to the cycles detected and mentioned above. The highlighted red or green shaded areas indicate that the higher timeframe - here the weekly S&P 500 - is also taken into consideration. 

S&P 500 - cRSI cyclic indicator | October 23, 2024

The multi-timeframe cyclic technical indicator is showing a clear divergence between price and the signal. While the weekly chart confirms another overbought situation at the time the divergence signal emerges, this provides technical confirmation of a possible top in place. A similar technical condition can be observed on the NASDAQ.

 

Nasdaq Composite | October 23, 2024

Quoted from:
Lars von Thienen (October 23, 2024) - The next wave on the horizon for the US stock markets – it is time to prepare.

See also:
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.

Sergey Tarassov  (September 8, 2024) - Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025. 

Sergey Tarassov  (June 26, 2024) - 2024 DJIA vs 40 Month and 42 Month Cycles.

Edward R. Dewey (1971) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle in Stocks. 

 

  Carol S. Mull (1989) - The 3 1/3 - Year Kitchin Cycle.

 

Joseph Kitchin (1923) - Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors.

Fed Policy-Driven Super Rallies and Corrections in US Stocks | Sven Henrich

The US market is at a critical juncture with a contentious election, a Fed meeting, and numerous earnings reports on the horizon. A significant liquidity rally is underway, raising hopes for a year-end rally, yet concerns about a potential corrective move linger, especially after an 11-month rise. Despite strong bullish sentiment, skepticism remains due to insufficient changes in underlying conditions and earnings not meeting expectations. The S&P 500 is now at approximately 5,800, with some analysts projecting levels as high as 6,600, but these optimistic forecasts prompt concerns about sustainability.

Super rallies and corrections in the S&P, driven by interest rate cuts and hikes (2016–2024).

 

Liquidity-driven super rallies, influenced by Fed policy on interest rates, are characterized by prolonged market increases with minimal price discovery. The first major super rally in the above chart followed the earnings recession of 2015-2016, fueled by tax cuts and global quantitative easing. Subsequent rallies occurred despite rate hikes, indicating a strong influence from central banks and government policies. These rallies often persist until liquidity conditions shift, such as through rate increases or unexpected events. 

 

Currently, global central banks are signaling easing policies, contributing to the ongoing liquidity rally. Fiscal dominance, marked by significant deficits, plays a crucial role in this environment. The unprecedented $1.6 trillion deficit in 2023 raises questions about recession potential amid fiscal stimulus. Past experiences show that downside movements typically arise when liquidity changes. The current market situation highlights a disconnect between strong policy support and underlying economic conditions. Overall, these factors suggest that the rally extend through the end of the year or into 2025, but risks remain.

 

Reference:

Sven Henrich (October 27, 2024) - NorthCast Market Update: Markets at a Crossroad. (video)

Markets expect the Federal Open Market Committee to 

cut interest rates again by 0.25% on Thursday, November 7.

 

The median Nasdaq 100 (NDX) return from October 27th to December 31st is +11.74% since 1985.  
The median S&P 500 return from October 27th to December 31st in election years is +6.25% since 1928. 

— Goldman Sachs, October 27, 2024.

 

See also:
Sven Henrich (January 14, 2024) - The Cynic’s Guide to Markets.

Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices | Richard Smith

 NASDAQ (4-hour closes) - at the top of an 82-day cycle swing.

  E-mini S&P 500 (daily closes) - at the top of an 81-day cycle swing.

S&P 500 (weekly closes) 2017-2024 vs. 180-week cycle composites of all major US stock indices.

Reference:
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities endgame? Cycles are screaming caution! (video)

 

Hurst Cycles Market Update — David Hickson, October 28, 2024.

Hurst Cycles in the S&P 500 — David Hickson, October 9, 2024.

Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold, and Bitcoin | David Hickson

Reference:
David Hickson (October 14, 2024) - Early Cycle Troughs - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

Hurst Cycle Projection for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 | David Hickson

 

There is uncertainty regarding the 20-day cycle trough's exact timing. The average length for this cycle is 17 days. Positioning the trough on August 22 aligns better with the 40-day cycle, which should be forming around September 9.

 

In the NASDAQ, similar trends are observed. The crest of the red dashed line of the Hurst Cycle Composite is around Quadruple Witching Friday, September 20 ± a few trading days.

Reference:
David Hickson (September 9, 2024) - The 40-Day Trough - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 5, 2024) - S&P 500 September 2024 Seasonality.

Wayne Whaley (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October.

Robert Miner (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500 Uptrend May Extend to 5,800 Into Equinox. 

Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025 | Sergey Tarassov

 » DJIA correction begun, and the 41 Month Kitchin Cycle suggests a decline until the end of 2025. «  
 —  Sergey Tarassov, August 5, 2024.

 

» Multiyear High in the DJIA between June and October 2024, i.e. sometime
between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle.  «    
 —  Sergey Tarassov, June 25, 2024.

Reference:
Sergey Tarassov (August 5, 2024) - Tune Up 41 Month Kitchin Cycle for DJIA. (video)
Sergey Tarassov (June 25, 2024) - Review of Forecasts for DJIA, Gold, Bitcoin, IOC and Mexican Peso. (video)

 2024 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table: » Major Panic - CRASH! «

 

Panic Cycles Week July 15 - 19 & Week September 9 - 13.

—  Martin Armstrong, June 14, 2024.

 

S&P 500 Slide Until September 18th & Potential Rally to 25th | Allen Reminick

As of September 4 (Wed), lower prices on the S&P 500 are expected. The market should decline further until September 12 (Thu), potentially hitting another low around September 18 (Wed). A rally is anticipated from then until September 23 (Mon) or 25 (Wed).

Historical patterns from 2000 and 2007 suggest similar market behavior, including a likely 50 basis point Fed rate cut around September 18-19 (Wed-Thu), which might initially seem bullish but could be bearish in the long run. A 10% decline might occur before the election, with a possible bounce post-election.

Reference:
Allen Reminick (September 5, 2024) - S&P Down Until 9-18-24. (video)

Precious Metals Setting Up for a False Move? | Martin Armstrong

When we look at precious metals, one would expect this is the long-awaited breakout for gold. Yet there is something amiss. The Yearly Array still points to a Turning Point here: 2024 with a Directional Change. That would imply that we may be looking at an important high come Monday if we reach at least 2673, or making highs after Monday may lead to the final high on August 28th, which may be more likely. The major resistance stands at the 2800 level. However, the initial target resistance for this coming week stands at 2573, 2589, 2695, and 2705.

 

Platinum is not following gold and implies it may yet test support into 2025 before a rally unfolds. Note that we have a Directional Change here in 2024 as well. However, it appears to be a low forming in 2025 and a shift to the upside thereafter.

 

 

When we turn to the Silver/Gold Ratio, we see a Double-Directional Change in 2024. The Stochastic is starting to turn down, implying that gold may decline, but silver will gain on the ratio. This is pointing to a more sustainable bull market in the years ahead [...]

 

Before a sustainable bull market exists, there is always the FALSE MOVE; in this case, it looks to be shaping up to the downside. This may present an important buying opportunity as we head into the election.

Quoted from:
Martin A. Armstrong (August 18, 20124) - The Metals Setting Up for a False Move? 

 

User Manual for Martin Armstrong's Socrates Platform, January 2019. 

Feigenbaum Cycle Potential Key Date = August 4 or 9, 2024 | LunaticTrader

In the recent years the 666 week and 666 day cycles have done a good job in pointing out market highs and lows. See this post from 2021 about the Feigenbaum cycle. And this post from 2023, which indicated the summer high as well as the early winter low in that year: 666 Again. Another key date was mentioned in this second article, August 9, 2024.

 

 

The long term 666 week cycle peaked on January 4, 2022, only a few weeks after the December 10 key date we had pointed out in the original article. As shown in the chart, 666 days before that came the covid crash. If we take exactly 666 days then we find March 9, 2020. That became known as Black Monday and was also the day when Italy announced a countrywide lockdown, the first country to do so. So that was the main panic day of the Covid crash. The 282 day decline from the early 2022 peak allowed us to project three more key dates. Late July 2023 became a market peak, followed by a bottom just before the November 1, 2023 date our 666 day cycle indicated. That leaves us with August [4 or ] 9, 2024, the next upcoming key date.

Quoted from:

Dan Van den Berghe a.k.a. LunaticTrader (July 15, 2024) - Potential Key Date.

S&P 500 vs Tri-Annual, Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly & Daily Pivot Levels

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (weekly candles) vs Tri-Annual Pivot Levels (for 2022-2024).

Based on spectrum analysis, Sergey Tarassov forcasted a multiyear high in US-stocks sometime 

around August 2024 between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle. 

By then the tri-annual R1 level at 6,019 could well be reached. R2 is at 6,928.

 

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (weekly candles) vs Yearly Pivot Levels (for 2024).
Tri-Annual and Yearly Pivot Points and Levels are suitable for long-term investing or swing trading

with a time frame of several months to a year or more.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (weekly candles) vs Quarterly Pivot Levels (for Q3 July-September 2024).
Quarterly Pivot Points and Levels are suitable for medium-term trading with a time frame of several 

weeks to a few months. They are useful for identifying intermediate support and resistance levels, 

trend continuations, and potential corrections.

.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily candles) vs Monthly Pivot Levels (for (July 2024).
Monthly Pivot Points and Levels are ideal for short-term to medium-term trading 

with a time frame of several days to a few weeks.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily candles) vs Weekly Pivot Levels (for July 07-12, 2024).
Weekly Pivot Points and Levels are suitable for short-term trading with a time frame of one to several

days to a week, to identify short-term support and resistance levels, trend continuations, and potential reversals.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4 hour candles) vs Daily Pivot Levels (for July 10, 2024).
Daily Pivot Points and Levels are ideal for short-term and intraday trading with a time frame of several hours to a day in order to identify short-term support and resistance levels, trend reversals, and potential breakouts. Daily Pivots can be used to make quick trading decisions, adjust stop-losses, or set price targets for the current trading session.

 

Pivot Points, Support and Resistance levels are calculated based on previous high, low, and close prices. These levels can identify areas, where price may bounce, reverse or break through, and where to set entry, stop-loss and take-profit orders. This technique is valid on various timeframes. Common types are Floor (Trader) Pivots a.k.a. Standard or Traditional Pivots (= all charts above), Central Pivot Range (CPR), Fibonacci, Woodie, Classic, Camarilla and DeMark Pivot Points, each type having their own calculation method.

 

Reference:
Franklin O. Ochoa Jr. (2010) - Secrets of a Pivot Boss.

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 10, 2024) - Soaring NASDAQ Approaching End of Midyear Rally.

2024 DJIA Compared to 40-Month and 42-Month Cycles | Sergey Tarassov

Multiyear High in the DJIA between now and October 2024, i.e. sometime 

between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle (August 2024).

 

Reference:

 Sergey Tarassov (June 25, 2024) - Review of Forecasts for DJIA, Gold, Bitcoin, IOC and Mexican Peso. (video)

Sergey Tarassov (October 14, 2022) - 40 Month and 42 Month Kitchin Economical Cycles - Case Study. o)

High in US-Stocks July 3-5 and Small Pullback into July 14-26 | Allen Reminick

Today is June 24th. The market is still very bullish. I am looking for a small pullback starting around July 3rd or July 5th-9th lasting into July 14th-26th. Another rally - possibly to new highs - into late August should follow before a 5 to 10 percent correction into early October and potentially into the US election around November 5th or 6th.

Note: So far Professor Reminick's projections in 2024 were all wrong.

After the election I expect the market going up again at least to the end of 2024 and potentially into May or August of 2025. If the high came in now in July-August, it would be about 5,700; if it comes in next year, it could be way higher than 6,000.

Quoted from:
Allen Reminick (June 25, 2024) - The Extra Special Sauce for S&P Bullishness Now; Swing Traders Take Note. (video)

The Sixth Wave and 2032.95 | Martin Armstrong

Here is the Economic Confidence Model at the very high end to all the questions about how high up the fractal structure can be defined.

 Martin Armstrong's Fractal Design of Time.

We are in the grand Public Wave overall that peaks in 2032.95. This is the equivalent of the wave that picked the Peak of Rome in 175 AD. So here, too, this is a wave where the government will fight very hard to hold control, for that is the dominant 309.6 character, while the final wave on the next fractal level is a Private Wave of 51.6 years. This is the people fighting back as they lose confidence in the government. The two forces are at war right now. The worse the environment becomes for the people, the more authoritarian governments will become. Each wave of 8.6 also alters back and forth between Public and Private.

This is why I warn it is time to try to reduce the amplitude by waking up. We achieved this briefly with the Age of Enlightenment. Government then fought back and reclaimed control. We replaced monarchy with ministers. Nothing changed otherwise. We will fight the good fight once again and seek to triumph with a new age of Enlightenment. Will we win? Who knows. But we have to try. What comes after 2032 is a private wave – the opportunity to reclaim our liberty once again. Here is that chart.

 

 » It has been propaganda that we live under a democracy. The people have no right to vote on critical issues.  

Republics historically are the most corrupt forms of government. «

The last Sixth Wave marked the peak of the Roman Empire. Every historian has drawn the line to mark the beginning of the Fall of Rome took place with the death of Marcus Aurelius in 180 AD. Talk about almost getting to a new age, he sent an ambassador to China. This has been revealed by books from the Tang Dynasty. The East and West knew each other. Merchants ran the trade routes. This would have been the beginning of a major global economy back in 180 AD. Marcus’ death ended the golden age and expansion of the world economy. He was followed by his crazy son, Commodus. With the death of Commodus, the Praetorian Guard actually auctioned off the position of emperor to the highest bidder. Since he was just nuts, they got to rule Rome, and it went to the heads, to the point that corruption was in the open.

 

» Our idea of managing our political-social-economy. «

I have told the story of how I used to meet with people who wanted to run for President at the behest of those in the Republican Party. Then in 1999, I was asked to fly down to Texas to meet with George Bush, Jr. I was told that this was different. They had me meet with various potential candidates to vet them out and give my opinion if they could handle the job from understanding the global economy. So what was different with Bush, Jr., was the fact they told me he was “stupid.” I was shocked. I asked why would you want to make someone stupid president? I was told he had the “name.” That is when they asked me to be the chief economist in the White House. I declined, for our business was way too global for that. They told me the plan was to surround him with good people. That is how Cheney took the role of President and moved his office in the White House.

 » The 8.6 year frequency is fractal in nature and it may indeed 

work from different dates other than the formal dates we show on the ECM. «

I have been told similar traits with Obama. He was told they would let him play with the social stuff but leave everything else to them. The bureaucracy tasted power under Bush, and they were not about to let that go. Obama missed more than 60% of his daily security briefings. Biden is, at best, a part-time president who no one believes is truly running the nation because he simply is not mentally capable of doing so. This is the Praetorian Guard running the world.

Quoted from:
Martin A. Armstrong (June 4, 2024) - The Major Fractal Wave of the Economic Confidence Model & 2032.95.

 

» By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. «