The
forecast focuses on market direction and timing rather than magnitude
of price change.
Reference:
Showing posts with label Cycles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cycles. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 2, 2026
S&P 500 Forecast for June 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino
Monday, June 1, 2026
Hurst 80-Day Cycle Low in SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, Gold, BTC | David Hickson
The global market stands at a critical crossroads regarding the 80-day (or 20-week) cycle trough. Price action relative to the 20-day FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) serves as the ultimate macro decider across all major indices. Holding support or breaking cleanly above this line confirms the trough is behind us, validating a bullish continuation. Conversely, failing at or breaking below the FLD signals that a deeper cycle decline is still underway.
S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 maintains a strongly bullish bias, with the 80-day trough likely already in place after a brief 49-day run from the March 31 low. While officially phased as a 20-week trough, the immense underlying strength suggests a much larger 18-month cycle trough formed in late March, running significantly shorter than Hurst's nominal model at a recent average of 11.4 months.
S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 maintains a strongly bullish bias, with the 80-day trough likely already in place after a brief 49-day run from the March 31 low. While officially phased as a 20-week trough, the immense underlying strength suggests a much larger 18-month cycle trough formed in late March, running significantly shorter than Hurst's nominal model at a recent average of 11.4 months.
favoring an immediate bullish advance if price holds above the 20-day FLD this week.
However, at day 62 of a nominal 68-day cycle, the index implies about six days of remaining downside.
This right-translated structure favors an immediate A-category upside continuation. The next minor 20-day cycle trough is due this week, where price must find support at the 20-day FLD to keep this bullish interpretation intact. A clean breakdown below the FLD invalidates the view and opens the door to lower lows.
NASDAQ: Unlike the S&P 500, the NASDAQ analysis relies on Hurst's original nominal model, which indicates the 80-day cycle trough still lies ahead. At day 62 of a nominal 68-day cycle, the index implies about six days of remaining downside, pointing toward an F-category interaction that should drag price below the 20-day FLD.
NASDAQ: Unlike the S&P 500, the NASDAQ analysis relies on Hurst's original nominal model, which indicates the 80-day cycle trough still lies ahead. At day 62 of a nominal 68-day cycle, the index implies about six days of remaining downside, pointing toward an F-category interaction that should drag price below the 20-day FLD.
six days of downside expected, unless price invalidates this by holding above the 20-day FLD.
However, because the recent average wavelength is an unusually stretched 89.5 days, this phasing remains under scrutiny. The 20-day FLD is the key tactical level to resolve this model divergence: if price holds above the FLD instead of breaking down, the NASDAQ will pivot to match the S&P 500's bullish "trough-is-in" reality.
Australian ASX: The Australian market provides a clean, textbook cross-check for global commonality. The 80-day cycle trough formed precisely as anticipated, arriving roughly one week earlier than projected near the May 18 window.
Australian ASX: The Australian market provides a clean, textbook cross-check for global commonality. The 80-day cycle trough formed precisely as anticipated, arriving roughly one week earlier than projected near the May 18 window.
a textbook bullish advance that eyes a minor 20-day trough support level this week.
Price has since executed a flawless bullish sequence, crossing above the 20-day FLD via an A-category interaction, finding exact support on the retest, and resuming its march higher. Cycle projections should now be shifted forward, timing the next 20-day trough for this week—where it should again find support at the FLD—followed by a 40-day trough roughly three weeks later.
German DAX: The DAX confirms a high-confidence shorter-term sequence but offers less macro clarity due to choppy data continuity. The prevailing model suggests a 40-day trough formed in late April and the most recent low was merely a 20-day trough, meaning the 80-day decline has not yet occurred.
the directional bias strictly dependent on whether price holds or breaks the 20-day FLD.
However, because the 80-day cycle whisker still encompasses this recent low, a definitive conclusion is impossible based on phasing alone. Just as with the US markets, the fixed-wavelength 20-day FLD will provide the final verdict through upcoming price interaction.
Nifty 50 (India): The Nifty 50 is actively diverging from global commonality, displaying an isolated bearish structure. Following an early-April 80-day trough and a mid-May 40-day trough, the index has already broken cleanly below its 20-day FLD in an F-category interaction.
Nifty 50 (India): The Nifty 50 is actively diverging from global commonality, displaying an isolated bearish structure. Following an early-April 80-day trough and a mid-May 40-day trough, the index has already broken cleanly below its 20-day FLD in an F-category interaction.
from global markets as it heads into a major 20-week cycle trough due in two weeks.
Rather than acting as a leading indicator that drags Western markets down, this breakdown reflects weaker-than-usual global synchronization for the Nifty. Price remains on track toward a major, projected 20-week cycle trough expected in roughly two weeks.
Gold (XAUUSD): Gold maintains a neutral-to-slightly bearish broader outlook, capped by a potentially massive, long-term cycle peak. In the near term, a classic GH-category interaction pair against the 20-day FLD strongly indicates that an 80-day cycle trough formed late last week, executing roughly seven days later than the recent average wavelength.
Gold (XAUUSD): Gold maintains a neutral-to-slightly bearish broader outlook, capped by a potentially massive, long-term cycle peak. In the near term, a classic GH-category interaction pair against the 20-day FLD strongly indicates that an 80-day cycle trough formed late last week, executing roughly seven days later than the recent average wavelength.
last week, requiring a break above Friday's high to safely confirm a new upward advance.
Price has since teased an A-category breakout but recently slipped back below the FLD line, threatening a double GH interaction. A conservative entry requires waiting for price to clear Friday's high to confirm the new cycle advance and eliminate near-term downside risk.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Bitcoin's underlying cycles are rapidly contracting, pulling its macro timeframe forward. Approximately 115 days have passed since the foundational 18-month cycle trough in February. While Hurst's nominal model projects a 136-day wavelength for the 20-week trough, compressed shorter cycles suggest this major nest of lows will arrive ahead of schedule, likely late this week.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Bitcoin's underlying cycles are rapidly contracting, pulling its macro timeframe forward. Approximately 115 days have passed since the foundational 18-month cycle trough in February. While Hurst's nominal model projects a 136-day wavelength for the 20-week trough, compressed shorter cycles suggest this major nest of lows will arrive ahead of schedule, likely late this week.
nest of lows expected this week, where an FLD breakout will signal a powerful new advance.
A recent failure to sustain a breakout above the 20-day FLD confirmed a textbook GH-category resistance pair, proving the trough was not yet in. The next interaction with the 20-day FLD is critical: an aggressive A-category breakout will confirm the 20-week trough is structurally complete and launch a major upward advance.
Reference:
David Hickson (June 1, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Market Update: Was That The 80-Day Cycle trough? (video)
David Hickson (June 1, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Market Update: Was That The 80-Day Cycle trough? (video)
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Cycle Chart by Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, 1985.
The S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 2000 bottomed in a 41-month Kitchin
cycle trough in late March 2026, approximately 3.5 years after their previous major low in October 2022.
Tuesday, May 26, 2026
NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting | Larry Williams
Let's start with the three core market tools—often misunderstood and rarely used together effectively:
■ Fundamentals determine value: Markets ultimately move for fundamental reasons, and value is rewarded over
time—not necessarily today, this month, or even this year. A value-driven framework is indispensable.
■ Technicals define the present: They reveal current market conditions—trend, momentum, overbought or
oversold states.
■ Cycles provide the edge: They project direction and timing, identifying when opportunities are most likely to
emerge.
The process is straightforward: What has value? Where are we now? Where are we going? You need all three—none is sufficient on its own. We begin with cycles, specifically the NASDAQ, which has exhibited structural strength since 2009.
Bullish NASDAQ Cycle Analysis
Market cycles consist of recurring lows, rallies, and declines, but not all waves carry equal weight. Some phases are structurally stronger—and we are currently in one.
bias remains up, buy pullbacks.
A comparable wave (3.5-Year, 41-Month, or Kitchin Cycle) in 2016 produced a sustained rally. The current configuration is similar. Since 2023, the NASDAQ has been in a pronounced bullish cycle. While my primary focus is typically the NASDAQ, recent instability in the Dow has increased its relative importance this year. Current cycle positioning suggests the early stages of another strong upward phase—historically associated with meaningful advances.
NASDAQ Could Rally Again: Historically, this cycle turns higher in June roughly 90% of the time.
Why the NASDAQ Could Rally Again: Historically, this cycle turns higher in June roughly 90% of the time, experiences a modest pullback in August, and then continues upward. That pattern implies a constructive setup.
Markets do not require declines to rally. They often consolidate sideways before advancing—a behavior repeatedly observed. While many investors wait for pullbacks, the absence of weakness does not negate bullish conditions. My 2026 forecast anticipated higher prices and emphasized buying pullbacks—not waiting for a breakdown that may never materialize.
Markets do not require declines to rally. They often consolidate sideways before advancing—a behavior repeatedly observed. While many investors wait for pullbacks, the absence of weakness does not negate bullish conditions. My 2026 forecast anticipated higher prices and emphasized buying pullbacks—not waiting for a breakdown that may never materialize.
Dow Jones "Explosive Wave" Pattern
The Dow is forming a recurring "explosive wave" structure: consolidation followed by a sharp advance. This sequence—sideways movement transitioning into a rapid rally—has repeated multiple times.
Inflation, as anticipated, has moved higher and remains closely linked to bond market dynamics. The longer-term trajectory still points toward declining interest rates into the early 2030s. This brings us to bonds.The expected mid-June low should be understood as a cycle low in the NASDAQ and DJIA—a tactical buying opportunity, not necessarily the absolute price bottom. The broader outlook remains intact: 2026 is a bull market year.
Bond Market Setup & Seasonality
Bond seasonality is currently in a bullish phase, historically associated with rallies. Cycle analysis aligns with this timing, reinforcing the setup. The Money Flow Index indicates institutional accumulation—an early and important signal.
near-term dip is a tactical buy entry.
Institutional Positioning in Bonds: Professional money is rotating into bonds. Commitment of Traders data shows commercial participants holding their largest long position since 2023. Historically, markets tend to advance when large, informed participants accumulate.
COT data shows commercial participants holding their largest long position since 2023.
Combined with a seasonal low, a cycle low, and improving money flow, the evidence points to a high-probability buying zone.
Wait for short-term pullback, then enter in alignment with the broader cycle and seasonal trend.
Bond Market Strategy: On the daily timeframe, bonds are near a seasonal low with capital beginning to flow in. The tactical approach: wait for a short-term pullback, then enter in alignment with the broader cycle and seasonal trend. While the market has already begun to move higher, a near-term retracement would provide a more favorable entry.
Stay the course. There is no bear market. Despite persistent skepticism, the primary trend remains upward. The strategy is unchanged: buy pullbacks, not fear them. We are in a bull market.
Reference:
See also:
Kevin Warsh is now Fed Chair, reviving fears that markets "test" new leadership—citing Bernanke (2007–09 crisis), Greenspan (1987 crash), and Volcker (late-1970s inflation). Yet history does not show leadership changes reliably trigger downturns. Context: since 1930, the S&P 500’s average annual drawdown is 16.1% (bearish extreme), its average best rally is 25.9% (bullish extreme), and mean annual return is 8.0%.
Post–Fed leadership changes, S&P 500 performance is generally not bearish: except at the 3-month horizon, advance rates exceed a 60% bullish threshold and average returns are positive. If Eugene Meyer (Great Depression) and Greenspan (1987) are excluded as likely timing outliers, results improve further: all intervals show higher average returns and win rates; at 1 year, the S&P 500 averages +12.7% and is higher 90% of the time.
Thursday, May 21, 2026
Three Major War Cycles Converging 2027–2032 | Richard Smith
Richard Smith, CEO, Chairman of the Board, and Executive Director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, presented research on long-term cycles in war and human conflict. His analysis reveals deep interconnections between warfare, economic activity, food production, and solar phenomena, potentially mediated by solar radiation and Earth’s geomagnetic influences on biological and social systems.
» All three cycle families show rising phase conditions in the current window. A convergence appears around 2027-2032. «
Building on the Foundation's archives and the work of Edward R. Dewey (1895–1978) and Raymond H. Wheeler (1892–1961), Smith's analysis revives and extends early 20th-century cycles research using modern tools, including AI-assisted digitization and the Foundation's Cycle Analyzer. Wheeler's landmark dataset spans roughly 2,600 years (from 600 BC onward), meticulously documenting and ranking battles by severity. Dewey, motivated by his experiences in World War I and II, identified recurring rhythms across diverse phenomena to better understand and potentially mitigate societal calamities.
Dewey observed a prominent 54-year cycle manifesting across multiple domains—including international battles, wheat prices, sunspots, tree rings, and financial instruments—with major peaks in 1917, 1971, and a projected crest in 2025. He also highlighted a 17.7-year cycle in warfare data derived from Wheeler's records through 1957. Projections of this cycle similarly converge on 2025. Unlike much of today's single-series technical analysis, Dewey's approach emphasized cycles that appeared independently across unrelated phenomena. The consistent recurrence of the same wavelengths across disparate datasets served as strong evidence of meaningful underlying rhythms.
Dewey observed a prominent 54-year cycle manifesting across multiple domains—including international battles, wheat prices, sunspots, tree rings, and financial instruments—with major peaks in 1917, 1971, and a projected crest in 2025. He also highlighted a 17.7-year cycle in warfare data derived from Wheeler's records through 1957. Projections of this cycle similarly converge on 2025. Unlike much of today's single-series technical analysis, Dewey's approach emphasized cycles that appeared independently across unrelated phenomena. The consistent recurrence of the same wavelengths across disparate datasets served as strong evidence of meaningful underlying rhythms.
» The entire vast area of human madness. «
Alexander L. Chizhevsky, 1922.
Smith has validated and extended this historical research with contemporary conflict datasets, including the Correlates of War (COW) Project, battle-related deaths statistics, and the UCDP Conflict Data Project. He also incorporated long-term economic and solar series such as wheat prices (from 1259), commodities, gold, silver, and sunspot records. Statistical analysis confirms several robust cycle families appearing consistently across war, economic, agricultural, and solar data:
■ 16–20 year cycle (≈18 years, the Dewey cycle)
■ 28–30 year cycle (Mogey cycle)
■ 39–40 year cycle
■ 56–60 year cycle
■ 85–100 year cycle
■ 28–30 year cycle (Mogey cycle)
■ 39–40 year cycle
■ 56–60 year cycle
■ 85–100 year cycle
These cycles frequently achieve high statistical significance (often 90%+ on Bartels tests) across independent datasets. Smith's chart above titled "Three Cycles Rising — Where Are We Now?" illustrates the combined phasing of the three most prominent cycles from 1975 to 2035:
Smith's analysis indicates that the three major war cycles will converge in a synchronized uptrend between 2027 and 2032, suggesting elevated risks of conflict, instability, and related phenomena into the early 2030s, with broader peaks potentially extending toward 2040.
» The tallest peak, and hence the strongest average cycle, is at the 4th fraction of 214 years (top scale), or 53.5 years (bottom scale). [...] Could this cycle be the well-established 54-year cycle? «Edward Dewey, 1967.
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE.
SUBJECT: Mr. Edward R. Dewey - Cycles Analysis.
SUBJECT: Mr. Edward R. Dewey - Cycles Analysis.
See also:
US corporations and financial institutions were striving to forecast, adapt to, and navigate the looming postwar economy.
Monday, May 18, 2026
Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, NIFTY, Gold, Bitcoin | David Hickson
Global equity markets are diverging: US indices may have already formed an 18-month cycle trough, while others likely have not. Despite this, all markets are synchronously declining into an 80-day cycle trough expected into late May or early June. S&P 500 and NASDAQ show strong bullish signatures suggesting a possible completed 18-month trough, yet are now rolling into 80-day lows. ASX and DAX still point toward pending 18-month troughs, with ASX clearly bearish and DAX more neutral. Gold is bearish post-January peak, and Bitcoin is descending into a synchronized 80-day / 20-week trough.
S&P 500: A confirmed 20-week cycle trough occurred on March 30 (Mon), potentially aligning with an unconfirmed 18-month cycle trough. In Hurst cycle analysis, tracking shorter cycles allows to infer longer-cycle behavior. To maintain analytical clarity, this update sets aside longer-cycle markers to focus on the confirmed 20-week trough.
On April 29, a 40-day cycle trough formed. Instead of breaking below the 20-day Future Line of Demarcation (FLD) to meet its downside target—as expected under normal conditions—price found support at the FLD. This resilience signals underlying bullishness, likely driven by a high-amplitude 20-week cycle or the larger 18-month cycle trough.
The next major milestone is an 80-day cycle trough projected for late May. Price is currently testing the 20-day FLD in what appears to be an F-category interaction, implying an imminent breakdown toward a downside target. Although recent bullish momentum could truncate this target, an 80-day trough rarely forms at the 20-day FLD level; thus, the base case remains a move lower.
S&P 500 (daily candles), March to June 2026: Downside into an 80-day trough into late May remains the base case.
Prior bullish excess suggests underlying strength, so declines may be muted, but a break below the 20-day FLD is still expected.
[ Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of
each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts. ]
The next major milestone is an 80-day cycle trough projected for late May. Price is currently testing the 20-day FLD in what appears to be an F-category interaction, implying an imminent breakdown toward a downside target. Although recent bullish momentum could truncate this target, an 80-day trough rarely forms at the 20-day FLD level; thus, the base case remains a move lower.
Timing Metrics: 48 days have elapsed since the late-March trough. Given a nominal 80-day wavelength (historically 68 days, but recently averaging 60.5 days), this trough may arrive slightly early, narrowing the target window to late May.
NASDAQ: Unlike the S&P 500, the NASDAQ's 18-month cycle trough lies ahead, highlighting broader long-term uncertainty. However, shorter cycles offer actionable clarity. Following a late-March trough, price crossed above the 20-day FLD and significantly exceeded its upside target, signaling intense bullish momentum.
NASDAQ (daily candles), April to June 2026: Stronger than the S&P, with prior momentum overwhelming
normal cycle behavior. Now rolling into an 80-day decline, likely shallow relative to typical cycle moves.
The 40-day trough likely formed early. Price failed to even retrace to the 20-day FLD during this phase—a classic indication of exceptional strength rather than analytical error. Price is now returning to the 20-day FLD for an F-category interaction. At 48 days post-trough, the NASDAQ is poised to decline into its 80-day cycle trough alongside the S&P 500.
Australian ASX: The ASX anchors the global divergence thesis. Its 18-month cycle trough lies ahead, creating a structurally bearish backdrop. While the 20-week trough occurred slightly ahead of the US and boasts a highly reliable (74.4%) FLD interaction sequence, the index recently failed to reach its upside breakout target.
ASX (daily candles), April to June 2026: Structurally bearish into a pending 18-month trough. Failed upside targets
and expanding cycles confirm weakness. The 80-day trough is imminent or aligns into early June.
An unfulfilled bullish target is a vital diagnostic signal confirming underlying bearish pressure. Furthermore, a displaced nest of lows indicates expanding shorter cycles (delayed troughs), typical of a bearish environment.
Timing Metrics: 56 days have elapsed since the March trough. With recent cycle wavelengths averaging 57.8 days, the 80-day trough is imminent, though global synchronization could defer it to late May or early June.
German DAX: The DAX exhibits rigid, less fluid price action, but the principle of commonality allows for reliable cross-market tracking. A major trough formed on March 23, aligning with the ASX. Its 18-month trough remains ahead, supporting a long-term bearish framework.
DAX (daily candles), March to June 2026: Balanced and orderly. Moving into an 80-day trough,
likely slightly lagging the US, with no clear bearish distortion—expect moderate downside.
However, the DAX appears more neutral than the ASX; its FLD interactions have been clean and balanced, meeting targets with high reliability and no immediate bearish distortion. Following a recent F-category interaction, price is heading lower into an 80-day cycle trough, projected slightly behind the US timeline.
NIFTY 50 (daily candles), April to June 2026: Uncertain structure and weak signal quality. Likely a short bounce
from a 40-day trough, then decline into a delayed 80-day trough in June. Key: reclaiming the 20-day FLD.
A 40-day trough likely just formed; expect a brief rally toward the 20-day FLD before a deeper decline into an 80-day trough in June—lagging global markets by roughly two weeks. A failure to reclaim the 20-day FLD will signal that this downward leg is already underway.
Gold (XAUUSD): Gold remains intermediate-term bearish. While a 40-week trough formed on March 23, a prominent late-January peak continues to exert downward pressure.
Gold (daily candles), February to June 2026: Bearish phase intact. Repeated failure of bullish targets
confirms pressure. Now declining into an 80-day trough, potentially forming slightly early.
Recent price action confirms this underlying weakness: an FLD upside breakout met its target but lacked follow-through, subsequent rallies have faltered, and recent bullish targets were missed entirely. Following an F-category cross below the 20-day FLD, gold is moving toward an 80-day trough, likely arriving just ahead of late May.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Bitcoin closely tracks its composite cycle model. After a bounce off the 40-day trough, price peaked precisely as modeled before reversing. It has since broken below the 20-day FLD in an F-category event, hitting its initial downside target.
Bitcoin (daily candles), February to June 2026: Tracking its cycle model. Already in decline
toward a combined 80-day / 20-week trough. Further downside likely before completion.
The market is now compressing into a synchronized 80-day and 20-week cycle trough. Because of the larger 20-week cycle's magnitude, this trough should run deeper than the prior 80-day low. Despite realized losses, further downside is expected before the cycle bottoms.
Friday, May 8, 2026
Solar and Lunar Cycles in Earthquakes | Richard Pasichnyk
Today's theories that involve the mechanisms behind "continental drift" or plate tectonics are insufficient to explain all the observations. For one, convection cells as hypothesized do not work. As numerous scientists espouse, present theory does not explain the position of the ridges through time, conditions surrounding subduction zones, rotations of plates, and so forth. Furthermore, the Earth's core is not as theorized, and it is purported to generate convection cells.
Solar and Lunar Cycles in Earthquakes: An Electrostatic Trigger.
Unexpectedly,
most plates are in a state of compression, except Africa, which is
under tension. Present theory insists on tension at
plate edges where mountains form, not midplate, as observations
indicate. Another
contradiction is the "jigsaw" Earth, where plates are made up of pieces
that came from elsewhere. For example, Florida and coastal New England
were part of South America, parts of Newfoundland were once part of
Georgia, Nova Scotia was part of Africa, Yucatan was once part of the
Mississippi Valley, and so on. These and numerous other facts appear
to call for new theories about plate tectonics, which is the intent of
this article.
» A maximum in earthquakes occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity, particularly after solar flares. The Sun’s retrograde motion is linked to earthquakes and other geophysical phenomena. «
Solar Trigger
Earthquakes
are correlated with solar activity. Solar activity as indicated by
sunspots, radio noise, and geomagnetic indices play a significant role. A
maximum in earthquakes occurs at times of moderately high and
fluctuating solar activity, particularly after solar flares. The Sun's retrograde motion is linked to earthquakes and other
geophysical phenomena, including climate.
Strong earthquakes take place when the Earth crosses the central meridian of the Sun, and this knowledge has been used to successfully predict quakes to some degree. Variations in gravity, earthquake energy, and solar activity were correlated in another study. Solar activity and quakes are linked in numerous studies, but, for the most part, gravitational models do not work.
Lunar Trigger
Many continental drift theorists dismiss lunar effects because tides have little effect on their quake mechanism. They criticize any correlation between maximum global tidal forces and quake regions where local tides are not at a maximum, or can even be at a minimum. Meanwhile, studies of a lunar-phase trigger in 21 earthquakes shows that 14 occurred at the quarter moon, five at full moon, and two followed a lunar eclipse.Some scientists claim the effect is gravitational. In fact, one study of 2,000 quakes demonstrated they took place at times when tidal forces were over the epicenter of deep-focus earthquakes. Earthquakes occur more often when the Sun and Moon are in opposition (opposite sides of the earth) or in conjunction (in line on the same side).
Shallow-focus earthquakes and moonquakes vary in concert for the years 1971 to 1976. Unusually large quakes in the period 1950-1965 were remarkably numerous for the twentieth century. Though a lunar trigger is evident, gravitational effects alone are inadequate to explain the results, as Shirley states:
Some ambiguity arises when we attempt to interpret this result within the framework of conventional gravitational geophysical models... If the pattern found is due to some physical cause (as opposed to 'statistical accident') then this would seem to raise the question of the adequacy of the traditional model. There is reason to believe (on relativistic grounds) that the tidal stresses may not be the only significant stresses of external gravitational origin applied to the Earth... The underlying physical processes remain obscure.
Other correlations exist between lunar phase and earthquakes. A study of Nevada earthquakes reveals a close connection with variations of the tide-generating forces. The active periods are 0-2 days of closest approach (perigee), 0-3 days of conjunction and opposition (syzygy), and 0-3 days of 90° (quadrature) with the Earth. These active times are not completely in accord with the gravitational effects, but indicate a delay of up to three days. There is a correlation of earthquakes with lunar phase and the passage of the Moon through the area (local meridian), and also with a change in the polarity of the Sun's Interplanetary Magnetic Field.
Lunar-solar periods in quakes along the Pacific coast were correlated to the full or new moon near sunrise or sunset, and also with the fortnightly ocean tides, which are regulated by lunar tides. Likewise, microearthquake frequencies near Alaska's St. Augustine Volcano are correlated with oceanic tides. Undoubtedly, the gravitational effects are too weak, but the correlations show that there is a lunar trigger.
The mechanism is suggested with the understanding that there is a lunar influence on the occurrence of aurora, or the Northern Lights. As will be shown, the influence is electrostatic, with the Moon triggering cascades of particle flow and changing the contour of electromagnetic fields (i.e., bow waves, plasma torus, potential gradients, electrostatic repulsion, etc.).
FIG. 1. Seasonal occurrence of earthquakes. Histogram of 562 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 and greater in the Northern Hemisphere, 1505-1976, and Northern California, 1901-1976. Dates were brought to the nearest mid-month (15th to 15th) to show seasonal trends in relation to solstices and equinoxes. Peaks are evident in winter and around the vernal equinox, with secondary peaks around the autumnal equinox and the solstices. A lesser set of data (62 earthquakes) indicated a 6-month shift in the Southern Hemisphere, as could be predicted.
Magnetic and Electrostatic Forces
All materials in nature are magnetic, and many tectonic features are the result of the magnetic properties of minerals. Materials are attracted or repelled by magnetic fields, but, in most cases, the forces are extremely small. Another force exerted on minerals is electrostatic, particularly if the force changes with time.» Lunar-solar periods in quakes along the Pacific coast were correlated to the full or new moon near sunrise or sunset, and also with the fortnightly ocean tides, which are regulated by lunar tides. «
Electrostatic forces can be purely repulsive, so that two bodies always repel, regardless of their relative orientations – such as the two sides of a ridge. The ocean floor and ocean water, including its life forms (organic compounds), tend to meet the characteristics of certain classes of magnetic minerals (diamagnetic and antiferromagnetic). The crust and the Earth's interior tend to meet the characteristics of other classes of magnetic materials (paramagnetic and ferromagnetic). Both share a fifth class (ferrimagnetic), particularly with regard to the mantle (garnet). This class of material produces an axis like that observed along the ridge (uniaxial anisotropy, not perpendicular anisotropy), and this material (basalt or gabbro, i.e., garnet) exudes at the ridges.
These class distinctions in the magnetic properties of minerals allow for the development of ridge systems and subduction zones in the oceans, while the crust experiences mountain building (faulting, etc.) and so forth. In fact, electrostatic levitation is being employed in physics for frictionless transport of monorails and other devices. Electrostatic forces can overcome gravitational forces. In plate tectonics, the levitation is vertical, which allows the ridges to spread and plate-plate boundaries to exist without large amounts of drag.
Drill hole research near the San Andreas fault at Cajon Pass reveals the absence of large amounts of drag at plate-plate boundaries because of electrostatic effects. Furthermore, computer models of plate tectonics demonstrate that the mechanism requires the addition of other minor forces.
Aurora-like Glows
Aurora-like glows often accompany earthquakes. One theory claims this effect may be due to quartz microcrystals in rock under high pressure. A fairly high proportion of crystals must be present, but this, in itself, is not sufficient. The crystals must be arranged in the same direction, not randomly, so that the electricity produced by one is not cancelled out by another. Only then, with sufficient pressure, will an electrical discharge be produced. This is known as the piezoelectric effect.However, this theory is inapplicable in at least some situations. These aurora-like glows have also been observed over the sea. The sea floor is not solid, and currents constantly re-arrange the crystals. Sea water is high in conductivity, which would neutralize or buffer the forces. Earthquake lights are most frequent when the Moon has passed its closest approach, and thereby occur during a decrease in the lunar tide. If the piezoelectric effect were producing these lights, the opposite would be true; the lights would occur during an increase of lunar tide.
One report correlates luminous seas and earthquakes. This observation cannot be explained by either the bioluminescence theory nor the piezoelectric effect, but can be readily explained by an electrostatic model of earthquakes (energetic particles producing thermoluminescence). There are also many lighted-displays that quartz could never produce.
Other Phenomena
Spectacular ostentations and a variety of wonders are commonly a part of the earthquake scene. Rain attended by thunder, lightning, and wind often occurs before, during, or after the shock. Globes of fire, illuminations, extraordinary lights, and ball lightning, often claimed to be meteors, are seen. Other associations are dark fogs, red and blue suns, and gray and red lurid skies, to name just a few phases of the colored atmosphere. The atmosphere also manifests aurora-like incandescence, fire, smoke, electrical activity, cold air, tempestuous winds, and/or total calm. Added to the list is an array of indescribable sounds or total silence.Peculiarities (anomalies) in Earth currents (geoelectricity and telluric currents) near an earthquake's epicenter demonstrate that electrostatic effects occur prior to the events. Sparking, electric shocks, and the mutual attraction and/or repulsion of objects also show these electrostatic effects.
Mountain lights have been seen in the Andes, Alps, Mexico, and Lapland, even under cloudless skies and very low humidity. The effect was not lightning, but a potential gradient. These mountain lights are sometimes visible far out at sea. The Andes is described as a giant lightning rod, and has a constant glow from late spring to fall, with occasional outbursts—particularly during earthquakes, such as the great quake of August 1906. This aurora-like glow is noted on other mountains, as well.
No earthquake exhibits all of these somewhat ambiguously described displays, but each occurrence adds another detail to the potpourri of facts that indicate electrostatic effects play their part. Illustrating the effects of this new understanding of the Earth, we find correlations between earthquake activity and the Chandler Wobble, the Moon's position, and solar activity.
Weather Phenomena and Particle Flow
Pressure waves high in the atmosphere due to shifts in the ionosphere take place just prior to earthquakes. These so-called "ionoquakes" are a somewhat indirect observation of particle flow. Through ionization, particle flow would create a vacuum and thereby affect weather with pressure changes, storms, and winds. For four to six weeks before earthquake activity, large, recurring patterns of high pressure develop off the coast of California. High pressure patterns even outline the San Andreas fault hundreds of miles off the coast.The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) sector boundary crossings (SBC) cause changes in the Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and atmosphere. Enhanced precipitation of energetic electrons take place as the Earth's magnetic field is disturbed. The effects include changes in wind direction and the size of storms (Vorticity Area Index) about four days before and after the SBC, with the greatest effect in winter. The SBC also is correlated with lightning and thunderstorms, which display a maximum in winter. Large changes in conductivity and electric field variations occur that appear to be global (Arctic, Antarctic, and mid-latitudes).
» Analyzing nearly a century of data, our results reveal an increased likelihood of
earthquakes following geomagnetic storms, particularly 27–28 days afterward. «
Hongyan Chen et. al., 2025.
Hongyan Chen et. al., 2025.
The IMF and geomagnetic field (GMF) interact to display a 12-month wave, with a maximum at the vernal equinox, and are the "result of a common cause." Meanwhile, geomagnetic disturbances influence monthly variations in the air-earth current and mean temperatures in 32 U.S. stations. Geomagnetic storms alter surface atmospheric pressure and the development of storms.
Numerous studies show that weather displays more deep-seated effects in winter. This includes the positively charged superbolts, ten to one hundred times stronger than normal lightning, which occur near Japan mostly in winter, with a peak around the vernal equinox.
A maximum in thunderstorms occurs three days after solar events. The electrical potential of the lower troposphere and radionuclides show the greatest fluctuations three to four days after solar eruptions (especially hydrogen-alpha flares). Likewise, geomagnetic storms bring alterations in four to eight days.
Together, these weather phenomena indicate the characteristics of particle flow, which has a mechanism with a delay of three to four days. Because of IMF/GMF interactions, it peaks in winter and the equinox (also solstices). These weather phenomena suggest what is evident in earthquake occurrence as well.
Seasonal and Diurnal Occurrence
The seasonal occurrence of earthquakes indicates a solar-terrestrial linkage. A study of earthquakes along the San Andreas fault prior to the April 18, 1906, San Francisco earthquake show the majority took place around the vernal equinox in spring, with a second peak during winter.FIG. 2. Lunar periods of earthquakes. Histogram of the same earthquakes used in Figure 1, but plotted according to lunar phase, when data permitted. Peaks are evident for mid-phase, the 24-hour period between three and four days after a lunar phase, and for the quarter phase.
Another study displayed a daily, or diurnal, peak in quake occurrence in some areas. A nocturnal maximum peaks around midnight. In Japan, Italy, and other countries, there is also a noon maximum. The noon maximum is identified with summer maximum annually, and the midnight maximum with winter maximum annually.
Noon and summer quakes are associated with an elevation of the crust and atmosphere; midnight and winter quakes are associated with a depression. Noon and summer appear to generate the most destructive shocks, and midnight and winter generate slight or moderate quakes in this one study.
Another analysis of 15,325 events shows a higher occurrence at night and in summer. Seasonal peaks, and daily peaks of noon and midnight, are beyond the scope of gravitational theory and plate tectonics as they are presently described.
Radiowave and Isotope Fluctuation
Magnetic fluctuations and radio emissions at or near the quake area are frequent. Changes in magnetic field characteristics during and after quakes can be local or even Earth wide. Radio emissions can be caused by electric currents due to particle flow along magnetic field lines. For example, radio emissions during the Chilean quake of May 1960 were picked up by cosmic radio noise monitors across the U.S..Radio waves are noted to experience a sudden drop one to six days prior to an earthquake. Electrical conductivity increases (as the rocks are stressed) just prior to the earthquake, and short pulses of radio signals (time-varying acceleration) are observed. Magnetic fluctuations and radio emissions are indicative of particle flow and fields not recognized by present theory.
» Solar wind speed causes more dynamic pressure on Earth's magnetosphere
and is the physical mechanism which increases the number of earthquakes. «
Marilia Tavares and Anibal Azevedo, 2011.
Marilia Tavares and Anibal Azevedo, 2011.
Helium isotopes (³He) are generated in the oceans at the ridges in quantities about eight times higher than in the atmosphere. This indicates there is heat flux and helium from an unknown source. The source and mechanism is an electrostatic particle flow along a field line, and the particles are helium nuclei, protons, neutrons, electrons and others (typical of hydrogen plasma at relativistic velocities).
Animal Behavior
Unusual animal behavior preceding earthquakes is so consistent it has been used to predict them. In 1975, a quake in Haicheng, China, was successfully predicted partially as a result of this knowledge. An illustrated booklet, Earthquakes, compiled by the Seismological Office, Tientsin, China, says both historical and recent surveys prove animals react before the event. Additional evidence from the Chinese indicates that 58 species are aware of approaching earthquakes, and, undoubtedly, there are more.For example, a Japanese scientist noted that quakes in the Idai peninsula were correlated with the number of fish caught near the end of Sagami Bay. In the spring of 1930, swarms of quakes hit Ito on the east coast of the peninsula. It was around that time that abundant catches of horse mackerel and other fish took place at the Sigedera fishing grounds. On the other end of the biological spectrum, falls of camellia flowers also were correlated with quakes by this same scientist.
Even we humans are affected with disorientation, giddiness, nausea, uneasiness, and feelings of impending calamity prior to and during a quake. Scientists suggest this is the result of human sensitivity to ground waves, and to electrostatic effects (including the Serotonin Irritation Syndrome) and electromagnetic forces.» Unusual animal behavior preceding earthquakes is so consistent it has been used to predict them. The reason for this type of behavior has most scientists baffled. «
Knowledge of this sort extends back at least to the time of the naturalist and writer, Pliny the Elder (1st century). He designated animal response as one of four signs of a threatening earthquake. The U.S. Department of the Interior compiled 33 independent reports from various parts of the world.
The reason for this type of behavior has most scientists baffled. One researcher states what could be predicted from an electrostatic trigger: "The ground gives off static electricity before an earthquake." In addition, increases in the intensity of Earth currents (telluric) are considered one of the warning signs or precursors of an impending quake. The physiological effects on animals also may result from air ions offsetting biochemistry (Serotonin Irritation Syndrome). The evidence is strongly in favor of an electrostatic trigger for earthquakes, though no such models exist.
A New Model of the Earth
A global network of earthquakes suggests a new model of the Earth that includes electrostatic effects. Changes in the Earth's rotation, or length of day, are correlated with earthquakes. Also, the Sun's center, or the solar system's center of mass—which is determined when Jupiter is in conjunction with another of the large planets—has a triggering effect on earthquakes. This has led scientists to suggest a solar-terrestrial linkage.Solar flares abruptly change the Earth's rate of rotation. This, as is claimed, could trigger earthquakes. There is a 120-day oscillation in the length of day, atmospheric zonal circulation, solar activity, the IMF, and the GMF. A correlation between solar motion, geophysical phenomena, and climate exists as well.
Different earthquake belts have nearly common active periods, which indicates they are strongly coupled on a global scale. The number of moderately large earthquakes decrease when the number of very large earthquakes increase, which is "suggestive of a causal relationship between these two groups of quakes."
Such an observation could be predicted if there were a global system triggered by varying amounts of particle flow and an electrostatic mechanism. Likewise, there is a remarkable similarity in curves of the annual number of large quakes and large intermediate and deep-focus earthquakes. Furthermore, there are space-time correlations between gravity, solar activity, quake energy, and the Earth's crust.
Chandler Wobble
The Chandler Wobble is a 14-month period in the motion of the pole of the Earth's rotation—something like the wobble of a spinning top as it loses momentum. A study of 234 quakes for the period 1901 to 1970 demonstrates that their occurrence closely resembles the curve of the Wobble. Polar tides and seismic energy are correlated in such a way that a relationship exists between polar motion and quakes, which the researchers claim is due to a "common excitation source."» Evidence indicates an electrostatic trigger in earthquake occurrence. A new model of the Earth seems to be called for. «
The seismicity of major earthquake belts is correlated to amplitudes of the Chandler Wobble, changes in rotational velocity of the Earth, and the drift of the geomagnetic field for the years 1901 to 1964. The conclusion is "The patterns which emerged suggest that all of these diverse phenomena are related."
Earthquakes are correlated to the Wobble's sudden change (1957-1967), but earthquakes do not contribute any significant energy to the Wobble. The amplitude of the Chandler Wobble is correlated to quakes of magnitudes between 7.0 and 7.5, with especially good correlation with deep and intermediate quakes (≥ 7.0 and 70 km depth). The hypothesis seems inescapable: "there may well be a deeper mechanism which both triggers earthquakes and maintains the Chandler Wobble."
Evidence indicates an electrostatic trigger in earthquake occurrence. A new model of the Earth seems to be called for. Plate motions follow solar activity as observed at 71 stations around the world. The plates move back and forth while the 11-year cycle goes up and down. In combination, these facts suggest a global system of fields that regulate plate motion and that are interrelated with the IMF, the GMF, and solar activity.
Electric Universe Geology suggests new theoretical pathways for understanding Earth, as well as other planets and moons.
An Electrostatic Trigger
Evidence indicates an electrostatic trigger in earthquake occurrence. The solar wind provides some of the particles in solar plasma, and the Moon triggers particle cascades along field lines. If these factors are at work, predictions can be made. The equinoxes are times of greater interaction between IMF and GMF. Lunar phases and mid-phases (observations indicate a mechanism with a 3-4 day delay) are times of greater probability for triggering particle cascades.
Figures 1 and 2 show the influence of these factors in histograms compiled from the analysis of 562 earthquakes. Table 1 lists the ten worst earthquakes in history, along with these factors in relation to their occurrence. The present level of solar activity is at a maximum and should increase earthquake occurrence.
TABLE 1. The Ten Worst Earthquakes in History*
* According to lives lost.
A new model of the Earth seems to be called for. There is extensive evidence for this conclusion that is beyond the scope of this paper—for example, relationships with hydrocarbon deposits, heavy metal ore deposits, weather centers, and gravity anomalies. This field system is a result of the condensing planetary nebula, and thereby a solar-terrestrial linkage will be apparent in observations.
As a result, gravitational effects are not the only influence; electrostatic time-varying effects also play a role. That is, relativistic physics, not Newtonian physics, are involved. Gravitational forces are indistinguishable from the mechanical forces in a concept called the Einstein Equivalence Principle. Gravitational mass is identical with inertial mass, and mass is equivalent to energy. The forces were present during the formation of the Earth and guided the alignment of minerals. It is a case of the weak and electromagnetic forces—the electroweak force—controlling gravitational forces.
Evidence indicates interaction between gravitational and electromagnetic fields in accord with general relativity. Non-gravitational forces are evident in the Earth-Moon system, and gravity has been observed to shift during solar eclipses, such as on June 30, 1954. The conclusion of the physicist who performed the original experiment has been relatively ignored. Such observations, he concludes, can be accounted for "only by the existence of a new field."
Richard Michael Pasichnyk (b. 1950) has taken a completely interdisciplinary approach to more than 17 years of study in the physical sciences and history to uncover the underlying basis of cycle synchronicity and unified theory. He also is editor of an information-based public service organization.
Quoted from:
Richard Pasichnyk (1990) - Solar and Lunar Cycles in Earthquakes: An Electrostatic Trigger.
In: Cycles magazine, Foundation for the Study of Cycles, November/December 1990 issue, pp. 321–327.
Richard Pasichnyk (1990) - Solar and Lunar Cycles in Earthquakes: An Electrostatic Trigger.
In: Cycles magazine, Foundation for the Study of Cycles, November/December 1990 issue, pp. 321–327.
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