S&P 500 1969 vs 2025 | Yuriy Matso

 S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

 

In J.M. Funk's chart of the "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression," the year 2025 belongs to the sequence of 1801-1857-1913-1969. This sequence is [...] labeled "Panic. Dumping."

 

 

S&P 500 1969 - 70 = 2025 - 26 ?

Reference:

2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

Possible 2025-1981 Analog for the S&P 500 | Tom McClellan & Branimir Vojcic

The S&P 500 in 2024 closely mirrors its performance in 1980, the year Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in the presidential election. Wall Street celebrated Reagan's victory, expecting him to be a transformative leader capable of resolving the nation’s problems. However, despite Reagan's eventual success, the first two years of his presidency were challenging for stock investors.

 Upper chart: S&P 500 vs shifted 1978-81 pattern.
Lower chart: S&P 500 vs daily spectrum cycle analysis composite.

Do not compare shapes; only focus on market turning points, which occur on very similar dates.

 

Whether 2025 will follow a pattern similar to 1981 remains a topic of ongoing analysis. For now, attention is focused on the sharp market dip triggered by the December 18, 2024 FOMC meeting. The Fed announced a 0.25% rate cut, as expected, but tempered expectations for additional rate cuts in 2025, leading to a wave of sell-offs. This recent dip mirrors a similar decline that bottomed on December 11, 1980.

The difficulties of a transformative presidency are evident, as Reagan faced challenges in implementing his policies. Similar obstacles may arise for Trump, and even if his efforts succeed, there is a risk that investors could be overestimating their potential impact—much like the overoptimism seen in 1980.

Reference:
Tom McClellan (December 20, 2024) - The December Dip That Was A Week Late.

 Tom McClellan (December 6, 2024) - Presidential Cycle Effects with a New President.
Tom McClellan (November 14, 2024) - Post-Election Celebrations We Have Seen Before.

Branimir Vojcic on X - December 20, 2024.

Branimir Vojcic (December 20, 2024) - Did the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Top?

2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'

In J.M. Funk's chart of the "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression," the year 2025 belongs to the sequence of 1801-1857-1913-1969. This sequence is connected by a long clock hand or needle to the center of the chart, labeled "Panic. Dumping." 

 

2025 in the 56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression.

(J.M. Funk's original chart of 1932, redrawn by David Williams in 1982)

 

» A knowledge of the present and history is therefore a key to the future. Until Government Standards are based upon the recognition of exterior forces (which govern human conduct) history will repeat itself. THE CHART WILL PREDICT THE FUTURE because the human make-up includes, aspiration, greed, intemperance, fickleness, etc., which traits are governed by endurance; 

endurance is governed by exterior forces which fluctuate in rhythm and tempo 

as constantly as the Sun in its journey through the heavens. «  

James Morris Funk, 1932.

 

• The Panic of 1801 marked the end of the first phase of the Napoleonic Wars and brought an abrupt halt to the prosperity the US had been experiencing from the carrying trade. Stock prices on the NYSE fell by about 25%.
• The Panic of 1857 was caused by bank failures, railroad overextension, and falling commodity prices, leading to a financial collapse. The stock market lost about 30%, and numerous businesses and banks failed. The crisis resulted in a severe recession, which lasted until 1859.
• The Panic of 1913-14 was triggered by the Balkan Wars (1912-13), which foreshadowed war among Europe's major powers. This resulted in a gradual liquidation of US securities by European investors, culminating in a 40% loss by August 1914, when the NYSE closed for four months.

 

 DJIA (daily closes) 1912-1915.

• Throughout 1969, the S&P 500 continued to decline from its November 29, 1968 peak, falling by 37% to its low on May 25, 1970 (18 months)—marking the worst bear market since 1937-38.  

 

  DJIA (daily bars) 1965-1973.

 Through the 9-year subcycle, 2025 is also related to 2016, 2007, 1998, etc. 

 

There are two other long needles extending from the center of Funk's chart, pointing to the sequences 1817-1873-1929-1985 and 1837-1893-1949-2005: According to Funk, in each 56-year period three major panic periods occur at 20-20-16 year intervals.  

 

So, was there a panic or significant decline in 1985? No. The DJIA closed the year up by 28%. But then in fact, 2005 was the first "fifth year" of any decade in the history of the DJIA to close in the negative, with a shocking decline of 0.6%. Since the 1880s, the fifth year in each Decennial Cycle has been, on average, the most profitable year of the entire cycle, and this pattern may well repeat itself in 2025 as well. The best argument against a positive outlook for 2025 is the fact that the US stock markets have already surpassed the crest of the 42-month cycle, which is expected to bottom out in the first quarter of 2026.

 

 Dow Jones industrial Average 1985 and 2005 (weekly bars).

Then there is this needle from the outer white ring, pointing to 2024, with the label "High Prices. Sell Save" (which corresponds to the major high of November 29, 1968 and, as expected, a major high in December 2024), and another needle from the inner white ring, pointing to around the cusp of 2026-2027 is labeled "Low Prices. Buy" (which corresponds to the January and May 1970 major lows in the S&P 500 – for more details, see the monthly chart below).

 

Since the 1760s, all major financial crises in the US and Western Europe have consistently clustered around Funk's 56-Year Cycle and its subcycles, which all appear to be closely connected to Moon-Sun tidal harmonics. David Williams concluded: "The results show conclusively that regardless of wars, rebellions, population changes, industrialization, technological, and monetary changes, American business has been dominated by a 56-year rhythm." 

 

The 56-Year Pattern of American Business Activity since 1761 vs. Planetary Cycles & Table with the

Accuracy of Major Planetary Aspects of the Jupiter-Uranus Cycle and the Jupiter Saturn Cycle at 

Business Cycle Turning Points 1929-1982 (Williams, 1982).

  

However, also note that the projections of the Four Year Presidential Cycle (see also HERE), the Decennial Cycle (see also HERE), and the Benner Cycle present distinctly different scenarios and outcomes for 2025 and the coming years. And, by the way, BlackRock just canceled the Business Cycle.

 

Reference:

J.M. Funk (1932) - The 56-Year Cycle in American Business Activity. Privately published. Ottawa. IL.

LCdr. David Williams (1947) - Rhythmic Cycles in American Business. 

LCdr. David Williams (1959) - Astro-Economics.
LCdr. David Williams (1982) - Financial Astrology. 

 David McMinn (1997) - The Sun, the Moon, and the Number 56.

David McMinn (1999) - Astrology and the 9/56 Year Cycle. 

David McMinn (2018) - 9/56-Year Cycle and Financial Panics. 

David McMinn (2019) - J.M. Funk and the 9/56 Year Cycle.

Lars von Thienen (2022) - Cycles of Financial Crisis: Using Long Term Static Cycle Models. (video)

 

 S&P 500 Index (daily bars) vs 56 Year Cycle.
December 11, 1968 to December 11, 2024 = (365.2422 * 56) = 20,454 days apart.

Blue line = S&P 500 daily closes shifted forward 20,454 days = Funk Cycle.

  S&P 500 Index (monthly bars) 1966 - 1972.

» Throughout 1969, the NYSE continued to decline from its December 1968 peak 

[= December 2024], falling by 37% to its low in May 1970 [= May 2027]. «

See also: 

TPR (2015) - 2015 in J.M. Funk’s 56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression.

Tom McClellan (December 6, 2024) - Presidential Cycle Effects with a New President.

Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.

TPR (2022) - Periods When to Make Money: Samuel Benner's Cycle Projection into 2026 High.
TPR (2012) - 2025 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table (1784 - 2121).

 

Google Search Result: "Funk Cycle"

1986-2024 S&P 500 Index Analog Projection into Early December

On a day to day basis the analog between S&P 500 closing prices of 1986 and 2024 had a 95% positive correlation over the past 180 trading days, which is the period since the beginning of 2024. Of course, only time will tell whether this correlation continues. With that in mind, the analog projects the upcoming swing highs and lows for the month of October to be more or less in line with Jeff Hirsch's average seasonal chart for October in election years: From the latest all-time high of September 26, the next swing low is projected to occur on October 9 (Wed), followed by a high on October 18 (Fri), and a potentially lower low around October 23-25 (Wed-Fri). Then a rally is expected to occur into November 29 (Fri). Note that in this context, direction is more important than price levels. The average S&P 500 return during October was slightly positive between 1950 and 2023, with 45 up years and 29 down years, and an average return of 0.75%.

Seth Golden is extremely optimistic about 2025: "From September 2023 to September 2024, the S&P 500 has been up greater than 30%. Historically, when the S&P 500 >25% over the trailing 12 months or more into a rate cut, stocks have NEVER been lower a year later and up close to +20% on average. There is no soft landing if there is no landing at all in 2025, and by all accounts the setup is clear!"  

 

A potential fly in the ointment for all of the above bullish outlook is Sergey Tarassov's long-term cycle analysis. He suggested that the 41-month Kitchin Cycle in US stocks would peak between June and October 2024, and be followed by a decline into December 2025-January 2026.  

 

That said, from a narrower medium-term Hurst cycle perspective, August 5 marked the low of a 40-week cycle. The market is now trending upward toward the next 40 week cycle's peak, and the last quarter of 2024 may very well conclude with new all-time highs.