2026 High in the Benner Cycle | "Time to Sell Stocks and Values of all Kinds"

"Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices" was authored by Samuel T. Benner and first published in 1875. Benner was an Ohio farmer who, after suffering heavy losses during the Panic of 1873, became intensely interested in the recurring patterns of economic booms and busts. 

 

 » Periods When to Make Money. «  Original business card of George Tritch Hardware Co., 1872.

Through his studies, he identified repeating 8-9-10, 16-18-20, and 27-year cycles that he believed aligned with both lunar cycles, solar activity, and major economic turning points. According to analyses of historical events, his forecasts achieved roughly 90% accuracy (more background HERE). For 2025, Benner’s cycle predicted the US stock market driving higher. For 2026, Benner's chart forecasts a major stock market top: "High Prices and the Time to Sell Stocks and Values of All Kinds" into 2032 ["Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a Good Time to Buy Stocks"].   

 » "B." [2026] Years of Good Times. High Prices and the Time to Sell Stocks and Values of All Kinds. «  

  

Benner Cycle Forecast for the Period 2015–2035.

In Benner's projection 2026 is marked as a "B" phase year — a peak of high prices and euphoria, often the culmination of a bull market before a shift to downturns. Historical "B" peaks have aligned (often within 1-2 years) with major tops like: 1929 (Great Depression peak), 2000 (dot-com bubble), 2007 (pre-2008 crisis), and others. 2026 is the final peak year, and should be followed by underperformance or bearish conditions into 2032.

 

 

Martin Armstrong contends that Benner’s cycle is more a historical curiosity than a reliable predictive tool, noting that it has been both right and wrong many times: 

 

The claim that Benner’s Cycle predicted the Great Depression is false. The chart [above] that was published in the Wall Street Journal altered Samuel Benner’s cycle, which was based on agriculture. It predicted a high in 1927, not 1929, and the low in 1930, not 1932. Claims that Benner’s work calls for a crash in 2025 are flat-out wrong. His target years would be 2019 and 2035, based on his data, not the altered, fake news published by the Wall Street Journal in 1933.

 

Benner was a farmer. Applying his cycle to the economy today is no longer effective, any more than the Kondratieff Wave. Both were based on the economy, with agriculture being the #1 sector. As the Industrial Revolution unfolded, those cycles remain relevant for commodities, but not the economy. Agriculture, when Benner developed his model, accounted for 53% of the economy. Today it is 3%. If they were alive today, they would have used the services industry. Capital flows are still pointing to the dollar, given the prospect of war and sovereign defaults outside the USA.

Martin Armstrong, August 30, 2025.

 

See also: 

TPR (2022) - "Periods When to Make Money" | Benner Cycle Projection into 2023 Major Low. 

2026 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Patterns by Political Party | Robert Miner

The Midterm Election Year typically performs the worst in the four-year election cycle. The chart below illustrates the average Midterm Election Year performance of the S&P 500 since 1950, categorized by first-term political party (1st Term Democrats, 1st Term Republicans):

Winter High – Summer Low –  Bull into Year-End.
First week of January: Major high (around +0.5%)
Second week of February: Major low (around -4%)
Mid-April: Major high (around +3%)
First week of August: Major low (around -6%)
Last week of 2026: Major high (around +8%)

Net Long-term Average of Midterm Election Year Performance under 1st-Term Republicans: +3%.

 

Reference:

Robert C. Miner (January 31, 2024) - The Definitive Guide to the U.S. Election Cycle and Stock Market Trends: 

Profit from the most consistent cycle in the U.S. economy.

 

See also:
Robert Miner (January 8, 2025)  - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Party. 

Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500 and Bitcoin; Focus on Gold | David Hickson

S&P 500: In previous updates we noted that the 20-week cycle trough likely formed on September 2, consistent with similar lows across global equity markets within a few days of that date. We discussed the probability that a minor low on September 25 represented the 20-day cycle trough. 

S&P 500 (daily bars) from late August to December 2025: 

Rebounding from 40-day trough, likely forming a 40- or 80-day peak —possibly at a marginal new high—before turning lower toward 80-day trough in November (Oct 10 + 37.2 CD = Nov 16 (Sun) ±). Market now in bearish phase into early Jan 2026.

The expected 40-day cycle trough appears to have occurred on October 10, driven by a sharp, news-related decline. This does not signal a larger-degree trough, but reflects the timing of external events with the 40-day low. Price has since bounced above the 20-day FLD, suggesting a short-term upside, possibly a marginal new high. Looking ahead, we anticipate an 80-day cycle trough in November, while the broader trend remains bearish into a major longer-term cycle low in early 2026.

Bitcoin formed a 20-week cycle trough on September 1, but its subsequent structure has been bearish. The October 17 low — possibly a 40-day trough — occurred below the 20-day FLD, signaling weakness, and any near-term bounce is likely temporary.

 

Bitcoin (daily bars) from late August to December 2025:

 18-month cycle points toward major trough in early 2026.

Bitcoin (monthly bars from 2017 to 2025) entering bear market expected to take price down to $25k.

 

The larger 18-month cycle points to a major trough in early 2026, keeping Bitcoin structurally soft into the broader decline.

 
Gold has been moving sharply higher, and is now approaching the peak of this move. In the monthly chart below, the upper panel displays cycles synchronized at peaks. Gold and other commodities often synchronize at peaks, and when markets accelerate sharply—as gold has—troughs are hard to identify, making peak-based analysis the most practical approach.

 

Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025: 

Now approaching the peak of this move.

Looking back to 1998, the analysis identifies 9-year cycle peaks around 2002, 2011, and 2020. The 2002 peak is somewhat uncertain due to gold’s persistent uptrend, while the 2011 and 2020 peaks are well-defined. Markets with synchronized peaks typically form W-shaped structures rather than M-shapes, consistent with gold’s 2011–2020 behavior. The 54-month cycle peak in 2016 also aligns neatly.

 

Gold (monthly bars) from 2020 to 2025: 

9-year, 54-month, and 18-month cycle peaks.

Since the 2020 9-year peak, 18-month cycle peaks have occurred in early 2022 and late 2023. Accelerating momentum has made these shorter-term peaks harder to pinpoint, creating some uncertainty around the exact timing of the late-2023 peak. Accordingly, the projected next 18-month cycle peak (indicated by a “circle and whiskers”) should be interpreted with caution. The same applies to the 54-month cycle peak, whose projection relies on historical averages and may have stretched over time.

The weekly chart below shows a “nest of highs,” where the 54-month, 18-month, 40-week, and 20-week cycles overlap. This cluster has shifted slightly later than projected, reflecting an expansion of the longer cycles rather than a flaw in the analysis.

Gold (weekly bars) from October 2024 to October 2025.

Potential 54-month peak by mid-October 2025: Gold remains in a strong uptrend, approaching

a major multi-year peak as the 20-week, 54-month, and possibly 9-year cycles converge.

 

Hurst noted that gold’s cycles generally run longer than stock market cycles, and the current data supports this. If cycles continue to extend, the next 20-week cycle peak should occur roughly 175 days after April, landing in mid-October 2025, suggesting a major 54-month peak may be forming now.

Gold (daily bars) from September to October 20, 2025.

Peak confirmed once price breaks key VTLs and FLDs.

 

Price targets are derived from FLD interactions, but all upward FLD targets have already been reached. We can, however, use the 9-year FLD for context: in 2015, price tracked this line before breaking above it, an interaction resembling a BC-category event in Hurst’s framework. This suggests the 2015 low may have been a very high-magnitude trough, potentially corresponding to a 36- or 54-year cycle low.

Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025.

All upward FLD targets have already been reached. On a log scale, the $250→$2,000 (~5×) move

from 2001 to 2011 projects a proportional long-term target from ~$1,000 in 2016 to around $5,000. 

 

Projecting forward on a logarithmic scale, the initial major move from roughly $250 in 2001 to $2,000 in 2011 represented a 5× gain. Applying the same proportional advance from around $1,000 points in December 2015 (36-year or 54-year low) to a long-term target near $5,000.

Reference:
David Hickson (October 20, 2025) - How Far Will Gold Go? - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

 

Gold remains in a long-term mean reversion channel. Currently near the upper resistance (~$4,300/oz), gold appears overextended and may revert toward the mean ($2,500–$3,500/oz) before resuming its secular bull trend. The channel’s higher highs and lows reinforce the broader projection toward ~$10,000/oz as inflation, currency debasement, and safe-haven demand sustain the long-term uptrend.

Subu Trade notes gold’s rare 9-week winning streak ending October 17, 2025 — with no prior 10-week runs since records began in 1970. On average, 9-week winning streaks yield a 0% positive outcome beyond the next day and precede average declines of 13% within two months. 

 Oct 21, 08:25 EDT

 » We are there. «

See also:

Martin Armstrong (October 21, 2025) - On Gold, EU Capital Controls, CBDCs, Cryptos, and Stocks.

David Hickson (October 6, 2025) - Hurst Cycles: Bigger Picture for SPX, NDX, ASX, and BTC.

David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

TPR (October 10, 2025) - Hurst 40-Week Cycle High in US Stock Indices | High of 2025. 

Branimir Vojcic (October 4, 2025) - Gold and Silver: Medium- and Long-Term Cycles. 

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025. 

Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Valid Trendlines (VTLs).
Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Future Lines of Demarcation (FLDs).

High Inflation: We are in Kondratieff's "Summer of Summer" | Ahmed Farghaly

Many people are wondering what has been happening to the prices of gold and silver recently. We were expecting developments similar to those that occurred after the 2020 bottom of the Kuznets wave [aka the 18-Year Cycle] in global markets. The first chart below presents our cyclical analysis of the Commodity Price Index.

 

 » We are in the “summer of summer.” «

 Commodity Price Index (quarterly bars, log scale) from 1750 to 2025: 162-Year, 54-Year, 18-Year, and 9-Year cycles. 

[Note, there is ongoing debate regarding the precise starting points of the 162-year and 54-year cycles.
It can be argued that both should be anchored to the Great Depression low of 1932, rather than to 1949-50.]

It is evident that the 54-Year Kondratieff wave, first identified by Nikolai Kondratieff, is clearly reflected in this historical chart. Even more intriguing is the apparent presence of a 162-Year larger-degree Kondratieff wave that maintains the same 3:1 harmonic relationship to the Kondratieff wave as the Kondratieff wave does to its smaller counterpart, the 18-Year Kuznets wave. In our cyclical model, the cycle spanning three Kondratieff Waves is called the Hegemony wave.
 

972-Year Methuselah Wave = three 324-Year Enoch Waves

Enoch Wave = two 162-Year Hegemony Waves 

Hegemony Wave (156.88 y) = three 54-Year Kondratieff Waves

Kondratieff Wave (52.72 y) = three 18-Year Kuznets Waves

Kuznets Wave 17.52 y) = two 9-Year Juglar Waves 

Juglar Wave (8.76 y) = two 54-Month Kitchin Cycles 

Kitchin Cycle = three 18-Month cycles = six 40-Week cycles

Many economists have described the “seasons” of the Kondratieff wave—spring (stable growth), summer (high inflation), autumn (low inflation and asset bubbles), and winter (deflationary recession). Typically, spring coincides with the first Kuznets cycle, summer with the second, and autumn and winter with the third. The highest inflation rates within a Kondratieff wave occur during the summer phase, corresponding to the second Kuznets cycle, which began in 2020.

 

» To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven. «
Ecclesiastes 3:1.

We are currently in the second Kuznets cycle (2020 to late 2030ies) of the second Kondratieff cycle (2000 to 2050) within the ongoing Hegemony wave (1950 to 2100)—a phase that can be described as the “summer of summer.” This phase suggests that we are likely to experience the highest inflation levels since the American Civil War (1861–1865).

» We are likely to experience the highest inflation levels since the American Civil War. «

US Inflation: Annual Percentage Change from 1774 to 2007, with Outlook Extending to 2106.

  

Our next chart above illustrates annual inflation in the United States since 1777. A distinct 162-Year Hegemony wave pattern emerges, with an inflation peak in 1813 marking the summer of the first Kondratieff cycle, a higher peak in 1865 corresponding to the summer of the second Kondratieff cycle, and a lower peak during World War I representing the summer of the third Kondratieff cycle. A comparable peak reappeared in 1980. According to our cyclical outlook, inflation in the current Kondratieff cycle is expected to surpass the levels of the 1970s, as this phase represents the second Kondratieff cycle within the broader Hegemony wave—the “summer season.”

The most advantageous assets to hold at this stage of the cycle—both from the standpoint of the Hegemony wave and the Kondratieff summer—are precious metals, real estate, and equities that tend to benefit from periods of high inflation.

Quoted from:
Ahmed Farghaly (October 6, 2025) - High Inflation: We are in Kondratieff's "Summer of Summer". 

 

 The Ultimate Summer:

972-Year, 324-Year, and 162-Year cycles.

» We are in the Sixth Wave that peaks
on Sunday, December 12, 2032. «

 

» Yet, what experience and history teach us is this: that nations and governments have never
learned anything from history, nor acted in accordance with the lessons to be derived from it. «
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, Introduction to Lectures on the Philosophy of History, Berlin, 1822.

 

See also:

Ahmed Farghaly (2016) - The 162-Year Cycle in Stocks and Commodities Since 1509.

Hurst 40-Week Cycle High in US Stock Indices | High of 2025

The Dow Jones reached its peak in the Hurst 40-Week Cycle as expected on Friday, October 3, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit their highs on Thursday, October 9. This marks the likely high for 2025.

 

Schematic Hurst 40-Week Cycle in the S&P 500 (daily bars; April 7, 2025 to January 1, 2026). Please note that, in any composite or summation of cycles with 2:1 ratios of length and amplitude, the crests of individual cycles become troughs in the resulting summation curve (thick black line).

In the S&P 500, the breakdown on Friday, October 10, expanded to four times the average true range of the past 20 trading days, erasing the lows of the previous three weeks in a sharp, 7-hour move down to August's high. The index closed down 3.36% on the highest volume since August 1, while the NASDAQ dropped 4.24% and the DJIA fell 2.44%.
 

The 20-Day Cycle Low is projected to occur between October 10-13 (Friday to Monday), followed by a brief 2-3 day bounce. Afterward, the market is expected to continue its downward trajectory into the next nominal 20-Day, 40-Day, and 80-Day Cycle Lows around October 24-27 (Friday to Monday).

A brief recovery is anticipated during the first week of November, before the market continues downward into the next 40-Day Low, which is forecasted for around November 28. Another short bounce is expected during the first week of December before the final decline into the 40-Week Cycle Low, which should occur between late December and early January 2026.

The principle of confirmation [20-week VTL] on display.

See also:

David Hickson (October 6, 2025) - Hurst Cycles: Bigger Picture for SPX, NDX, ASX, and BTC.

David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin. 

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

 TPR (August 5, 2025) - Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle. 

Hurst Cycles: Bigger Picture for SPX, NDX, ASX, and BTC | David Hickson

S&P 500: In our previous update, we identified three possible 20-week cycle troughs, and after comparing with less bullish markets (Nifty, ASX), concluded that the most likely occurred in the first few days of September. Price behavior since then supports that view. The next 20-day cycle trough likely occurred around September 25, slightly longer than average at 23 days. 

 

Price is rising from the 20-week cycle trough on September 2. The market is still bullish, moving up from either a 20- or 40-day trough, with the next expected 40-day or 80-day cycle trough due within one weeks to ten days. The 40-week cycle trough is projected around January 2026.

This mild irregularity raises the question of whether that trough was in fact an early 40-day one, since we’re due for another in about a week to ten days. Regardless, price remains in an upswing, moving out of that trough, and we stay bullish until the market gives evidence of peaking.

 

The S&P 500 e-minis (ES) is still running up and the composite cycle points to 7,000.

 

Schematic composite cycle projection for the S&P 500 during the 
bullish 9-month cycle phase of the current 18-Month Cycle. 

 

Looking at the bigger picture, the S&P 500 has a 54-month (4½-year) cycle trough in October 2022, followed by 18-month troughs in October 2023 and April 2025. The strong rally since April suggests that the trough may be of greater magnitude. We expect a 40-week cycle trough in January 2026, and a major 18-month (or possibly 54-month) trough by September 2026. Until then, the market remains upward-biased with periodic corrections.

 

NASDAQ: The NASDAQ shows nearly identical structure: a 20-week trough on September 2, and a 20-day trough on September 25. A 40-day cycle trough is due around mid-October.

 

Also rising from the September 2 20-week trough. A 40-day cycle trough is expected between mid- and late October, followed by a move down into the January 2026 40-week trough. The market remains up until evidence of a peak forms.

On the larger scale, the NASDAQ shares the same October 2022 54-month base and subsequent 18-month troughs in October 2023 and April 2025, placing it in its third 18-month cycle—historically the least bullish. If this up-move fails to sustain, it could turn sharply bearish. A 40-week trough is expected in January 2026, followed by a deeper 18-month or 54-month trough toward late 2026.

 

Australian ASX: The ASX has been valuable for cross-checking the US indices because it hasn’t been as relentlessly bullish. Its 20-week trough also appeared around early September, confirming cycle alignment. After a hesitant bounce, the ASX regained strength last week. Shorter cycles (20-day and 40-day) are slightly stretched, and a 40-day trough is due soon, followed by an 80-day in November and a 40-week trough in January 2026. 

 

The 20-week trough occurred on September 2–3; price struggled initially but recovered strongly from the 20-day trough. A 40-day trough is due within a week, an 80-day trough in November, and the 40-week trough in January 2026.

Its longer-term 40-month cycle (analogous to a 54-month in US markets) bottomed in April 2025, explaining the strong upward pressure. The ASX is expected to peak later this year, then weaken into January 2026 before another rally.

 

Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s 20-week trough formed in early September, consistent with equities. The 20-day/40-day identification remains uncertain, but price is currently advancing from that base.

 

The 20-week trough appeared in the first days of September. Price is currently rising, but it will later move down under the influence of the 40-week and 18-month cycles into a trough expected January 2026.

On the broader scale, Bitcoin’s 54-month trough came in December 2022, with an 18-month trough in August 2024 and a 40-week trough in April 2025. Its next key trough, of 18-month magnitude, is due in January 2026. Although the coming decline should be mild due to limited amplitude, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum may fade into early 2026 before the next major upswing.

 

Reference:
David Hickson (October 6, 2025) - The Bigger Picture - Hurst Cycles Market Update - 6 October 2025. (video) 

 

See also:

David Hickson (September 22, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Notes on the S&P 500: 20-Day Trough, Now Up.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

 Christopher Grafton (2022)  - Using FLDs to Forecast Market Turning Points and Trends. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 2, 2025) - S&P 500 Year-End Outlook: Strong Seasonal Setup Targets 7100.

Wayne Whaley (September 27, 2025) - S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September.  

 Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.