Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500 and Bitcoin; Focus on Gold | David Hickson

S&P 500: In previous updates we noted that the 20-week cycle trough likely formed on September 2, consistent with similar lows across global equity markets within a few days of that date. We discussed the probability that a minor low on September 25 represented the 20-day cycle trough. 

S&P 500 (daily bars) from late August to December 2025: 

Rebounding from 40-day trough, likely forming a 40- or 80-day peak —possibly at a marginal new high—before turning lower toward 80-day trough in November (Oct 10 + 37.2 CD = Nov 16 (Sun) ±). Market now in bearish phase into early Jan 2026.

The expected 40-day cycle trough appears to have occurred on October 10, driven by a sharp, news-related decline. This does not signal a larger-degree trough, but reflects the timing of external events with the 40-day low. Price has since bounced above the 20-day FLD, suggesting a short-term upside, possibly a marginal new high. Looking ahead, we anticipate an 80-day cycle trough in November, while the broader trend remains bearish into a major longer-term cycle low in early 2026.

Bitcoin formed a 20-week cycle trough on September 1, but its subsequent structure has been bearish. The October 17 low — possibly a 40-day trough — occurred below the 20-day FLD, signaling weakness, and any near-term bounce is likely temporary.

 

Bitcoin (daily bars) from late August to December 2025:

 18-month cycle points toward major trough in early 2026.

Bitcoin (monthly bars from 2017 to 2025) entering bear market expected to take price down to $25k.

 

The larger 18-month cycle points to a major trough in early 2026, keeping Bitcoin structurally soft into the broader decline.

 
Gold has been moving sharply higher, and is now approaching the peak of this move. In the monthly chart below, the upper panel displays cycles synchronized at peaks. Gold and other commodities often synchronize at peaks, and when markets accelerate sharply—as gold has—troughs are hard to identify, making peak-based analysis the most practical approach.

 

Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025: 

Now approaching the peak of this move.

Looking back to 1998, the analysis identifies 9-year cycle peaks around 2002, 2011, and 2020. The 2002 peak is somewhat uncertain due to gold’s persistent uptrend, while the 2011 and 2020 peaks are well-defined. Markets with synchronized peaks typically form W-shaped structures rather than M-shapes, consistent with gold’s 2011–2020 behavior. The 54-month cycle peak in 2016 also aligns neatly.

 

Gold (monthly bars) from 2020 to 2025: 

9-year, 54-month, and 18-month cycle peaks.

Since the 2020 9-year peak, 18-month cycle peaks have occurred in early 2022 and late 2023. Accelerating momentum has made these shorter-term peaks harder to pinpoint, creating some uncertainty around the exact timing of the late-2023 peak. Accordingly, the projected next 18-month cycle peak (indicated by a “circle and whiskers”) should be interpreted with caution. The same applies to the 54-month cycle peak, whose projection relies on historical averages and may have stretched over time.

The weekly chart below shows a “nest of highs,” where the 54-month, 18-month, 40-week, and 20-week cycles overlap. This cluster has shifted slightly later than projected, reflecting an expansion of the longer cycles rather than a flaw in the analysis.

Gold (weekly bars) from October 2024 to October 2025.

Potential 54-month peak by mid-October 2025: Gold remains in a strong uptrend, approaching

a major multi-year peak as the 20-week, 54-month, and possibly 9-year cycles converge.

 

Hurst noted that gold’s cycles generally run longer than stock market cycles, and the current data supports this. If cycles continue to extend, the next 20-week cycle peak should occur roughly 175 days after April, landing in mid-October 2025, suggesting a major 54-month peak may be forming now.

Gold (daily bars) from September to October 20, 2025.

Peak confirmed once price breaks key VTLs and FLDs.

 

Price targets are derived from FLD interactions, but all upward FLD targets have already been reached. We can, however, use the 9-year FLD for context: in 2015, price tracked this line before breaking above it, an interaction resembling a BC-category event in Hurst’s framework. This suggests the 2015 low may have been a very high-magnitude trough, potentially corresponding to a 36- or 54-year cycle low.

Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025.

All upward FLD targets have already been reached. On a log scale, the $250→$2,000 (~5×) move

from 2001 to 2011 projects a proportional long-term target from ~$1,000 in 2016 to around $5,000. 

 

Projecting forward on a logarithmic scale, the initial major move from roughly $250 in 2001 to $2,000 in 2011 represented a 5× gain. Applying the same proportional advance from around $1,000 points in December 2015 (36-year or 54-year low) to a long-term target near $5,000.

Reference:
David Hickson (October 20, 2025) - How Far Will Gold Go? - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

 

Gold remains in a long-term mean reversion channel. Currently near the upper resistance (~$4,300/oz), gold appears overextended and may revert toward the mean ($2,500–$3,500/oz) before resuming its secular bull trend. The channel’s higher highs and lows reinforce the broader projection toward ~$10,000/oz as inflation, currency debasement, and safe-haven demand sustain the long-term uptrend.

Subu Trade notes gold’s rare 9-week winning streak ending October 17, 2025 — with no prior 10-week runs since records began in 1970. On average, 9-week winning streaks yield a 0% positive outcome beyond the next day and precede average declines of 13% within two months. 

 Oct 21, 08:25 EDT

 » We are there. «

See also:

Martin Armstrong (October 21, 2025) - On Gold, EU Capital Controls, CBDCs, Cryptos, and Stocks.

David Hickson (October 6, 2025) - Hurst Cycles: Bigger Picture for SPX, NDX, ASX, and BTC.

David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

TPR (October 10, 2025) - Hurst 40-Week Cycle High in US Stock Indices | High of 2025. 

Branimir Vojcic (October 4, 2025) - Gold and Silver: Medium- and Long-Term Cycles. 

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025. 

Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Valid Trendlines (VTLs).
Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Future Lines of Demarcation (FLDs).

Hurst Cycles: Bigger Picture for SPX, NDX, ASX, and BTC | David Hickson

S&P 500: In our previous update, we identified three possible 20-week cycle troughs, and after comparing with less bullish markets (Nifty, ASX), concluded that the most likely occurred in the first few days of September. Price behavior since then supports that view. The next 20-day cycle trough likely occurred around September 25, slightly longer than average at 23 days. 

 

Price is rising from the 20-week cycle trough on September 2. The market is still bullish, moving up from either a 20- or 40-day trough, with the next expected 40-day or 80-day cycle trough due within one weeks to ten days. The 40-week cycle trough is projected around January 2026.

This mild irregularity raises the question of whether that trough was in fact an early 40-day one, since we’re due for another in about a week to ten days. Regardless, price remains in an upswing, moving out of that trough, and we stay bullish until the market gives evidence of peaking.

 

The S&P 500 e-minis (ES) is still running up and the composite cycle points to 7,000.

 

Schematic composite cycle projection for the S&P 500 during the 
bullish 9-month cycle phase of the current 18-Month Cycle. 

 

Looking at the bigger picture, the S&P 500 has a 54-month (4½-year) cycle trough in October 2022, followed by 18-month troughs in October 2023 and April 2025. The strong rally since April suggests that the trough may be of greater magnitude. We expect a 40-week cycle trough in January 2026, and a major 18-month (or possibly 54-month) trough by September 2026. Until then, the market remains upward-biased with periodic corrections.

 

NASDAQ: The NASDAQ shows nearly identical structure: a 20-week trough on September 2, and a 20-day trough on September 25. A 40-day cycle trough is due around mid-October.

 

Also rising from the September 2 20-week trough. A 40-day cycle trough is expected between mid- and late October, followed by a move down into the January 2026 40-week trough. The market remains up until evidence of a peak forms.

On the larger scale, the NASDAQ shares the same October 2022 54-month base and subsequent 18-month troughs in October 2023 and April 2025, placing it in its third 18-month cycle—historically the least bullish. If this up-move fails to sustain, it could turn sharply bearish. A 40-week trough is expected in January 2026, followed by a deeper 18-month or 54-month trough toward late 2026.

 

Australian ASX: The ASX has been valuable for cross-checking the US indices because it hasn’t been as relentlessly bullish. Its 20-week trough also appeared around early September, confirming cycle alignment. After a hesitant bounce, the ASX regained strength last week. Shorter cycles (20-day and 40-day) are slightly stretched, and a 40-day trough is due soon, followed by an 80-day in November and a 40-week trough in January 2026. 

 

The 20-week trough occurred on September 2–3; price struggled initially but recovered strongly from the 20-day trough. A 40-day trough is due within a week, an 80-day trough in November, and the 40-week trough in January 2026.

Its longer-term 40-month cycle (analogous to a 54-month in US markets) bottomed in April 2025, explaining the strong upward pressure. The ASX is expected to peak later this year, then weaken into January 2026 before another rally.

 

Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s 20-week trough formed in early September, consistent with equities. The 20-day/40-day identification remains uncertain, but price is currently advancing from that base.

 

The 20-week trough appeared in the first days of September. Price is currently rising, but it will later move down under the influence of the 40-week and 18-month cycles into a trough expected January 2026.

On the broader scale, Bitcoin’s 54-month trough came in December 2022, with an 18-month trough in August 2024 and a 40-week trough in April 2025. Its next key trough, of 18-month magnitude, is due in January 2026. Although the coming decline should be mild due to limited amplitude, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum may fade into early 2026 before the next major upswing.

 

Reference:
David Hickson (October 6, 2025) - The Bigger Picture - Hurst Cycles Market Update - 6 October 2025. (video) 

 

See also:

David Hickson (September 22, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Notes on the S&P 500: 20-Day Trough, Now Up.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

 Christopher Grafton (2022)  - Using FLDs to Forecast Market Turning Points and Trends. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 2, 2025) - S&P 500 Year-End Outlook: Strong Seasonal Setup Targets 7100.

Wayne Whaley (September 27, 2025) - S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September.  

 Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

Hurst Cycles Notes on the S&P 500: 20-Day Trough, Now Up | David Hickson

General outlook: US Dollar and USDJPY bouncing out of 80-day cycle troughs. Gold up. Oil struggling to confirm 80-day trough. Copper and EURUSD dropping to 80-day troughs. SPX, Nikkei, Bitcoin all formed 20-day troughs in new 20-week cycle. Ten year notes looking for 80-day cycle trough.

S&P500 E–Minis (ES) - subtle 20-day trough in new 20-week cycle. Up.

The S&P 500 e-minis continue their march upward in the new 20-week cycle. A subtle 20-day cycle trough formed last week, bullish pressure revealed by the fact price could not reach down to the 20-day FLD. There is a 40-day cycle trough looming in the second week of October. Up. 

Reference:
David Hickson (September 22, 2025) - The Macro Brief - 22 September 2025.

 

Schematic 40-Week Hurst Cycles Projection in a bullish trend.

 

J.M. Hurst's Nominal 20-Day and 40-Day Cycles.

 Three weeks up out of Sep 2 low; three pushes out of Sep 17 20-day cycle low; week

Sep 22-26 (XAMD); re-accumulation; Sep 24-25 low; up ≈ Oct 3-6; down ≈ Oct 24. 

 

See also: 

TPR (September 16, 2025)  - “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur” | Hurst Cycles Suggest Otherwise.  

Namzes (September 22, 2025) - Push higher into Oct Opex for 40W cycle peak? 

Christopher Grafton (September 3, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Notes on the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. 

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin. 

TPR (August 5, 2025) - Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle.

Bitcoin FLD Trading Opportunity with 8% Potential | David Hickson

The daily Bitcoin chart below is dated September 15 (Mon), with price near $114.5k. A 20-week cycle trough was identified on September 1 (Mon), which means 14 days have passed since then. The average length of a 20-day cycle is about 17.1 days, and we are approaching the expected timing for the next 20-day cycle trough. The nest of lows at the foot of the chart suggests that a 20-day cycle trough is likely to occur around September 18–19 (Thu-Fri).

20-week cycle trough confirmed on September 1 (Mon). Next 20-day cycle trough expected 

around September 18–19 (Thu-Fri). With the 20-week, 80-day, and 40-day cycles all

pushing up, upside targets are $120K+ by early October. 

Our main tool here is the 20-day cycle FLD. Price has already crossed above this FLD twice, producing a somewhat messy A-category interaction. The target from that interaction was achieved early on Friday, slightly exceeded, as expected after a 20-week trough. Now, price is dropping toward the next 20-day cycle trough. At that time, we expect it to find support at the 20-day FLD at around 112k. 

 

This creates the trading opportunity: If price finds support at the 20-day FLD when the 20-day trough forms, we can look for a long entry. The sequence of price interactions with the 20-day FLD has a 62.5% accuracy rating, making it a reliable setup. Why? There is bullish pressure: Bitcoin is rising out of a 20-week trough, with the 20-week, 80-day, and 40-day cycles all pushing upward. For different entry options, watch the 7-minute video (link below). 

 

Reference:
David Hickson (September 15, 2025) - FLD Trading Opportunity in Bitcoin. (video) 

See also: 

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

40-Week Cycle Blow-Off Top Target for the S&P 500 | Branimir Vojcic

The chart below shows 20-week and 40-week cycle price projections for  S&P 500. Getting to the 7,200 area +/- may satisfy both targets. The black trendline resistance will get into the 40-week cycle target range late this year.

40-Week Cycle Blow-Off Top Target for the S&P 500 (daily bars) 7,200 +/-.

 

Cycle price projections are fully satisfied about 70% of the time. The probability of approaching them without fully satisfying them is considerably higher. However, this is not the time to be complacent as the stock market is most overvalued in more than 100 years.

Nasdaq-100 Index (weekly bars) - Long-Term Elliott Wave Count, and Blow-Off Top Targets.

 

The green rectangles depict blowoff top targets for Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) for 20-week and 40-week cycles. The black count is preferred in which Primary wave 5, circle-5, will take the form of an ending diagonal, ideally into the green targets. The blue count is an alternative ending diagonal. In this count, NDX is now completing wave B of (4) with C expected in 2026 and (5) in late 2027 or early 2028.

The completion of circle-5 this year or in 2027/28 will mark the top of cycle degree wave V and super-cycle degree (III). Super-cycle (IV) can take about 15-20 years. Cycle a is expected in the early 2030s, then a bounce in cycle b, and then cycle c of (IV) in about mid-2040s. A typical retracement for (IV) is in the range of IV, i.e., the fourth wave of one lesser degree. That’s the long-term picture. The focus in the next twelve months will be on nailing the pending top and a cycle trough expected in mid-2026, +/-, which should be black circle-A or blue (4).

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (September 14, 2025) - Bravocycles Newsletter: Market Made New Highs – Will Bitcoin Follow?

 

XLF (2007-2041) is the ticker symbol for the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, an exchange-

traded fund (ETF) that tracks the performance of the financial sector within the S&P 500.

 

Upside bias likely holds into FOMC Meeting on September 17 (Wed).

Rally still has room toward 6,700 (log 61.8%), even 6,800 (100% W1) in blow-off top scenario.

40-week cycle peak in late September to early October will mark a long-term market top.

TPR, August 25, 2025.

See also:

Krasi (September 13, 2025)  - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis: Update and Long-Term View. 

Trigger Trades (September 13, 2025) - Blow-Off Top = Final Wave Before Correction. 

 Jeff Hirsch (September 9, 2025) - September Seasonality of US Stock Indices.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

Branimir Vojcic (August 5, 2025) - S&P 500 20-Week Hurst Cycle Support Around 6,000. 

Branimir Vojcic (2025) - Price Projections Using J.M. Hurst's FLD.
Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Future Lines of Demarcation (FLDs).

TPR (2025) - Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle.

Hurst Cycles Notes on the S&P 500 and Bitcoin | Christopher Grafton

General outlook: Gold, EURUSD both in 40 day cycle peak zone. US Dollar, Oil, Copper, USDJPY forming pro-trend 20 day cycle troughs. SPX E-Minis, 10 Year Treasuries at 80 day cycle peaks. Nikkei to 40 day cycle trough zone. Bitcoin 80 day cycle trough forming. 

S&P 500 E– Minis (ES, daily chart) - 80 day peak zone. Down.

 Bitcoin (daily chart) - 80 day cycle trough zone. Up.

Reference:
Christopher Grafton (September 2, 2025) - The Macro Brief - 2 September 2025.

 

See also:

Christopher Grafton (2011) - Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis.
David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

J.M. Hurst's Future Lines of Demarcation (FLDs) | Christopher Grafton

A Future Line of Demarcation (FLD) is a replica cycle plotted half a wavelength forward in time from the original cycle. If you can picture a semicircle representing a cycle, the FLD is a copy of that semicircle overlaid on the original, but offset forward. In effect, there are now two overlapping semicircles. 

 

The job of Hurst cycle analysis is to back-engineer the composite cycle (i.e., the price action we observe over time on the chart) and resolve it into its constituent cycles. The goal is to find their troughs and peaks, then determine our position within the cyclic scheme at the lower right edge of the Bitcoin chart below. An FLD can be generated for any cycle in the nominal model. Among other things, the interaction between price and FLDs allows us to estimate the future time and price of peaks and troughs, and to gauge future trend direction. The following examples should clarify this.

 

In the Bitcoin chart, a 20-week FLD has been generated by offsetting a line to the right of price at each date by half the wavelength of the 20-week cycle (the wavelength is 22.7 weeks, as shown at the bottom right of the chart, so the offset is 11.3 weeks). The FLD is an exact duplicate of the original price line. 

 

Bitcoin's 20-Week Cycle and FLD (from June 2021 to January 2022).

The horizontal arrows stacked down the left-hand side of the chart show the offset in action. You might notice a slight difference between the FLD inflections and the original price; this is because FLDs use the median price (high + low)/2. Notice also that as the FLD falls in future time, for example in August, the price is rising at that time; and as the FLD rises in future time, for example in December, the price is falling.

The primary use of the FLD in the Hurst Cycle notes service will be as a target measurement tool and to confirm the magnitudes of recent peaks or troughs. Let's start at the 22 June diamond stack marking the time location of the 40-week cycle trough. The 40-week cycle is represented by a light green diamond, and our cycle of interest, the 20-week cycle, is the dark green diamond just below it in the stack. The arc of the entire cycle has been plotted, and the next trough is estimated to occur in the last week of January 2022.

The origin price is the 22 June low of 23,894. Price rallies with the new 20-week cycle and meets the falling 20-week FLD on 7 August at 43,546 X(1). With these two pieces of information, we can now estimate an initial target for the 20-week cycle peak. We do this by subtracting the origin price from the FLD cross price and then adding the difference to the cross price. This generates an upside target of 63,198, which turns out to be 92% of the actual peak price, which came in at 68,789 on 10 November. The reason the FLD projection fell a bit short is covered in the next section.

Now, let's consider the downside target. Using the 10 November peak as the new origin price (68,789), price falls and meets the rising 20-week FLD on 24 December at 50,918 X(2). Subtracting the FLD cross price from the origin price and then subtracting the difference from the cross price generates a downside target of 33,047 (the actual low was 33,184, i.e., a little lower).

 

Next, we are looking at the 20-day cycle and 20-day FLD in the E-minis chart below. The start of the 20-day cycle is the low of 20 May (3,807.5).  

 

E-minis 20-Day Cycles and FLD (from 20 May to 21 June 2022).

Price rises to meet the FLD on 26 May at 4,012.8 X(1), generating an upside target estimate of 4,218.2 (as a reminder, we subtract the origin price from the cross price and add the difference to the cross price). The actual peak came in somewhat lower at 4,202.2. Why it undershot should become clearer when we examine the downside leg, but basically, it's because the 20-day cycle was under downward pressure from longer, falling cycles. When FLDs either exceed or miss their targets, it tells us something about the bigger picture.

It gets interesting on the downside leg now because price is actually falling into a major low, that of the 40-week cycle trough. In real time, this would have appeared on the chart as a nest of lows shown by circles and whiskers. We would have known the magnitude of the upcoming trough and been prepared for a sharp sell-off into it.

The origin price for the downside leg is the 4,202.2 top, and prices fall to meet the rising 20-day FLD at 4,053.95 X(2). However, this only generates a downside target estimate of 4,053.9, which is clearly too short. In real time, you would have expected a price overshoot to the downside because of the looming big trough and not just randomly closed out at X(2). You would have needed to step up to the next longer cycle, the 40-day FLD. So, let's look at that now.

 

For the downside leg, the origin remains the same as for the 20-day cycle at 4,202.2, and price declines to meet the rising 40-day FLD at 3,913.0 X(2), providing a downside target estimate of 3,623.7. The actual 40-week cycle trough came in at 3,661.5.

 

The origin price of the 40-day cycle is the same as that of the first 20-day cycle at 3,807.5. Price rallies and crosses the falling 40-day FLD at 4,031.5 X(1), generating an upside target estimate of 4,254.7. This is undershot by 52 points, again because longer cycles are pressing price down into an upcoming 40-week cycle trough.

Summary: FLDs are replica cycles that help the analyst estimate targets and work out the magnitude of recent peaks and troughs. Theoretically, when prices cross up through a falling FLD, we are halfway to the peak. When prices cross down through a rising FLD, we are halfway to the trough. The influence of longer cycles on a cycle of interest can cause price to either undershoot or overshoot the theoretical target, providing us with useful information about underlying trend strength and direction.

Reference:
Christopher Grafton (October 16, 2022) - FLDs.

See also:
Christopher Grafton (2011)  - Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis.