Hurst Cycles Notes on the S&P 500: 20-Day Trough, Now Up | David Hickson

General outlook: US Dollar and USDJPY bouncing out of 80-day cycle troughs. Gold up. Oil struggling to confirm 80-day trough. Copper and EURUSD dropping to 80-day troughs. SPX, Nikkei, Bitcoin all formed 20-day troughs in new 20-week cycle. Ten year notes looking for 80-day cycle trough.

S&P500 E–Minis (ES) - subtle 20-day trough in new 20-week cycle. Up.

The S&P 500 e-minis continue their march upward in the new 20-week cycle. A subtle 20-day cycle trough formed last week, bullish pressure revealed by the fact price could not reach down to the 20-day FLD. There is a 40-day cycle trough looming in the second week of October. Up. 

Reference:
David Hickson (September 22, 2025) - The Macro Brief - 22 September 2025.

 

Schematic 40-Week Hurst Cycles Projection in a bullish trend.

 

J.M. Hurst's Nominal 20-Day and 40-Day Cycles.

 Three weeks up out of Sep 2 low; three pushes out of Sep 17 20-day cycle low; week

Sep 22-26 (XAMD); re-accumulation; Sep 24-25 low; up ≈ Oct 3-6; down ≈ Oct 24. 

 

See also: 

TPR (September 16, 2025)  - “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur” | Hurst Cycles Suggest Otherwise.  

Namzes (September 22, 2025) - Push higher into Oct Opex for 40W cycle peak? 

Christopher Grafton (September 3, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Notes on the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. 

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin. 

TPR (August 5, 2025) - Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle.