There must always be a major and a minor, a greater and a lesser, a positive and a negative. In order to be accurate in forecasting the future, you must know the major cycles. The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles. I have experimented and compared past markets in order to locate the major and minor cycles and determined in what years the cycles repeat in the future. After years of research and practical tests, I have discovered that the following cycles are most reliable to use:
GREAT CYCLE - MASTER TIME PERIOD - 60 YEARS
This is the greatest and most important cycle of all, which repeats every 60 years or at the end of the third 20-year cycle. You will see the importance of this by referring to the war period from 1861 to 1869 and the panic following 1869; also 60 years later – 1921 to 1929 – the greatest bull market in history and the greatest panic in history followed. This proves the accuracy and value of this great time period.
Schumpeter’s model of economic cycles illustrated how shorter-term cycles combine to produce long waves. Specifically, he integrated Kitchin cycles (short business cycles lasting approximately 3–5 years) and Juglar cycles (medium-term investment cycles of 7–11 years), with three Kitchin cycles nested within each Juglar cycle. While Schumpeter also discussed Kuznets cycles (spanning 15–25 years), these were not included in the charts above. The charts focus on the interaction between Kitchin and Juglar cycles, showing how their interplay contributes to the formation of long waves lasting about 56 years. According to Schumpeter’s framework, a typical long wave consists of 18 business cycles.
50-YEAR CYCLE
A major cycle occurs every 49 to 50 years. A period of "jubilee" years of extreme high or low prices, lasting from 5 to 7 years, occurs at the end of the 50-year cycle. "7" is a fatal number referred to many times in the Bible. It brings about contraction, depression and panics. Seven times "7" equals 49, which is shown as the fatal evil year, causing extreme fluctuations.
30-YEAR CYCLE
The 30 year cycle is very important because it is one-half of the 60-year cycle or Great Cycle and contains three 10-year cycles. In making up an annual forecast of a stock, you should always make a comparison with the record 30 years back.
20-YEAR CYCLE
15-YEAR CYCLE
Fifteen years is three-fourths of a 20-year cycle and most important because it is 180 months or one-half of a circle.
10-YEAR CYCLE
The next important major cycle is the 10-year cycle, which is one-half of the 20-year cycle and one-sixth of the 60-year cycle. It is also very important because it is 120 months or one third of a circle. Fluctuations of the same nature occur which produce extreme high or low every 10 years. Stocks come out remarkably close on each even 10-year cycle.
7-YEAR CYCLE
This cycle is 84 months. You should watch 7 years from any important top and bottom. 42 months or one-half of this cycle is very important. You will find many combinations around the 42nd month. 21 months or 1/4 of this cycle is also important. The fact that some stocks make top or bottom 10 to 11 months from the previous top or bottom is due to the fact that this period is 1/8 of the 7-year cycle.5-YEAR CYCLE
The cycle is very important because it is one-half of the 10-year cycle and 1/4 of the 20-year cycle. The smallest complete cycle or work-out in a market is 5 years.
In Four-Dimensional Stock Market Structures and Cycles, Bradley F. Cowan identified the Saturn 5-Year cycle using data back to the 1700’s. This chart used CycleTimer to automatically calculate that cycle anchored at the March 2000 top in the NASDAQ. The middle chart zooms in on the 2009-2014 5-Year Saturn cycle and adds Cowan’s 5-Year Venus-Earth cycle. The bottom chart zooms in further on the top using daily data.
MINOR CYCLES
The minor cycles are 3 years and 6 years. The smallest cycle is one year, which often shows a change in the 10th or 11th month.84-YEAR CYCLE
There
is an 84-year cycle, which is 12 times the 7-year cycle, that is very
important to watch. One-half of the cycle is 42 years – 1/4 is 21 years,
and 1/8 is 10½ years. This is one of the reasons for the period of
nearly 11 years between the bottom of August ,1921 and the bottom of
July, 1932. A variation of this kind often occurs at the end of a Great
Cycle or 60 years. Bottoms and tops often come out on the angle of 135°
or around the 135th month or 11¼-year period from any important top or
bottom.
Quoted from:
W.D. Gann (1950s) - Stock Market Course (p. 218 ff.).
See also:
W.D. Gann (1950s) - Stock Market Course (p. 218 ff.).
See also: