The S&P 500 suggests a Hurst 20-week cycle trough has formed on August 1, but the NASDAQ and Bitcoin point to a trough that still lies ahead. This divergence underscores the need for cross-market confirmation before drawing firm conclusions.
S&P 500: The April 7 trough of 18-month or larger magnitude underpins the ongoing bullish bias. Sentient Trader Hurst cycle analysis software places the 20-week trough in early August, but the FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) interaction rating is weak (~30%), leaving doubt about whether it was the 20-week low. Price has shown some support at the 20-day FLD, but evidence remains mixed.
The April 7 trough of 18-month or larger magnitude underpins the ongoing bullish bias.
If the early-August low was indeed the 20-week trough, the S&P 500 could break above its mid-August highs and extend higher into autumn. If not, the index still has a decline due, possibly into late August, before resuming its primary uptrend. Traders should await confirmation through clearer FLD interaction.
Schematic 18-Month Cycle Projection for the S&P 500.
Hurst's original approach identifies harmonic cycle lengths between lows, and in any composite or summation of a set of cycles with 2:1 ratios of length and amplitude, the crests of individual cycles actually become troughs in the summation line (thick black line). Hurst analysis can also be used to identify cycles between highs, as illustrated by the gold example below.
Schematic composite cycle projection for the S&P 500 during the
bullish 9-month cycle phase of the current 18-Month Cycle.
NASDAQ: Like the S&P 500, the April 18-month and June 80-day troughs are confirmed, but the early August price action points more convincingly to a 40-day trough, not a 20-week low. The FLD sequence is highly rated (~54%), with clean breakdowns below the 20-day FLD, suggesting the 20-week trough still lies ahead. This cycle evidence looks stronger than in the S&P 500.
In the NASDAQ, Sentient Trader's nominal 20-week cycle currently uses an average wavelength of 20.9 weeks,
and therefore anticipates the 20-week cycle trough in late August or early September (thick dashed orange line).
The NASDAQ is likely to weaken into late August as it completes the 20-week cycle trough. Once that trough forms, the structure points to a strong rebound into a 40-week cycle high around late September, consistent with the dominant 18-month cycle uptrend. Until then, resistance at the 20-day FLD should cap the price.Gold: Remains rangebound beneath a potential 12-year cycle peak on April 22, but its phasing is uncertain. A recent 20-day cycle trough has been confirmed, providing short-term support. Price is currently trapped in a wedge, with both 40-day and 80-day VTLs (Valid Trend Lines) acting as boundaries.
A breakout above the wedge would lead to a potential 12-year cycle peak before a larger decline.
The immediate bias is for a short-term rise as the 20-day cycle exerts upward pressure. A breakout above the wedge or VTL resistance would open the door to new highs before the larger decline sets in. Failure to break higher could prolong sideways action.
Bitcoin: Cycle structure is very clear and highly rated (~69%). The 20-week trough has not yet formed; instead, price is in decline following a textbook F-category interaction at the 20-day FLD. Early August marked only a 40-day trough, not the larger low.
In Bitcoin, Sentient Trader averages the nominal wavelength of the 20-week cycle as 20.5 weeks,
and projects the cycle trough into the first week of September.
Price is expected to continue falling into the 20-week trough, likely completing within weeks. A rebound should follow once the trough is established, though risks remain of a bearish asymmetry if the cycle phasing proves misaligned. The short-term bias for Bitcoin remains downward.