Entering the First Global Total War | Alex Krainer

In their conversation, Lena Petrova (IR, MBA, CPA, and political economy analyst) and commodities trader, former hedge fund manager, and geopolitical analyst Alex Krainer examine the dimensions of what he terms the "First Global Total War," driven by major energy and trade disruptions and broader global market stress stemming from the US war against Iran.

 

» This is not the Third World War. This is the First Global Total War. « 

 

Krainer frames the present moment as a systemic confrontation between two competing models of governance: the Western-led, British-derived system of free trade (globalism)—criticized as fostering a regulatory and labor "race to the bottom"—and the emerging multipolar framework rooted in Alexander Hamilton’s American System of political economy (economic nationalism). The latter is a protectionist, nationally oriented, and genuinely wealth-creating model that was applied with notable success by the United States, Germany, and Japan in the 19th century, and later as sovereigntist derivatives by Korea, Mexico, Brazil, Iran, China, and numerous other nations throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries. 

 

"The Monkey System:" 1831 cartoon attacking Henry Clay's "American System" from a
Jacksonian Democratic perspective favoring limited federal economic intervention.

 

Krainer forecasts a prolonged systemic confrontation with significant implications for global energy production, industrial output, trade, and food markets, arguing that tensions and worldwide wars will persist until the foundations of the current Western neocolonial financial architecture (including private central banking) are fundamentally challenged, ultimately defeated, and replaced.

 

Exhaustive List of Hydrocarbon and Major
 Energy Incidents (Non-Middle East).

 

Since April 3, ten oil refineries, power plants, and energy facilities across

 seven countries have been destroyed by "fires," "explosions," and "accidents."   

 

Escalation of Conflict

Krainer interprets the wars in Ukraine and West Asia as interconnected theaters within a broader strategic struggle. He argues that Western powers seek to open additional fronts—potentially in the Baltics, the Balkans, and around the Strait of Malacca—to prevent de-escalation in Ukraine and sustain strategic pressure.

Energy as a Strategic Lever

Control over energy flows, particularly through chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, is presented as the central axis of conflict. Krainer characterizes this dynamic as part of a long-standing effort by Western neocolonial financial interests to preserve influence over the Eurasian landmass.

 »  A worldwide naval confrontation centered on energy and trade access. «

 

Commodities Markets and Inflation

On the economic front, Krainer contends that elevated equity valuations are being sustained by central bank liquidity, masking underlying structural fragility. This, he argues, has produced a growing divergence between financial markets and the real economy. He anticipates upward pressure on oil and other commodities, describing current price behavior as slow-moving and lagged in its response to geopolitical developments.

US Air Force General Dan Caine refused President Donald Trump's attempt to access
nuclear codes during an emergency White House meeting on Saturday, April 18.

 

Rise of a Parallel System

Krainer highlights the gradual emergence of alternative financial and commodity networks operating beyond Western institutional control. He notes that many countries in the Global South are exploring paths outside IMF-aligned frameworks, despite the political and economic risks involved.

Reference:
Lena Petrova (April 21, 2026) - Alex Krainer: Global War Expands as Energy and Economic Crises Accelerate. (video)

  

See also:
Jiang Xueqin (April 17, 2026) - US War Against the World, and the Future International Order.
TPR (March 30, 2026) - JPMorgan Maps and Times the Global Oil Supply Shockwave. Really? 
Stanislav Krapivnik (March 27, 2026) - No Energy, No Food: Global System Breakdown Begins.

US War Against the World, and the Future International Order | Jiang Xueqin

The US war on Iran has entered a temporary pause, with no major events reported in the days following the Islamabad negotiations. This lull suggests the 'ceasefire' functions as a strategic reset rather than a resolution. 

"O Owner of Time, the time is at hand." 

 

Ceasefire Functions as Strategic Reset and Preparation for Prolonged Global War of Attrition

The US, having been placed on the defensive during the active phase, is using the cease fire to reposition forces, reassess tactics, and prepare for the next phase of operations. Behind-the-scenes movements include the Indonesian Defense Minister's visit to Washington, and the signing of an agreement granting US access to Indonesian airspace. This cooperation advances US influence over the Strait of Malacca, the world's largest maritime chokepoint and the route for roughly 80 percent of China's oil imports. 

» Do you think Scott Bessent wants oil prices to fall? To crash? Maybe down to $20 a barrel? Do you think the energy giants would be happy with that? No, they would be furious because the cost of production in the US is around $30 a barrel. Do you think Bessent hasn’t thought about this? Of course, he has. He likely predicts, just as I do, that oil prices could rise to $150 a barrel. That’s why I said Bessent shouldn’t have made these statements public—they act as a warning signal about a potential US military operation. It suggests that the US might be preparing to take action against Iran and, in doing so, potentially shut down the entire Persian Gulf. « Lu QiYuan, 2024.

Such control would counter Iranian dominance in the Strait of Hormuz and could disrupt East Asian economies if access were restricted. Further reinforcement comes from the deployment of the aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush, accompanied by approximately 10,000 Marines, raising total US troop strength in the theater to 60,000 and signaling readiness for potential ground operations. Domestically, President Trump has requested a $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget for the coming fiscal year, automatic draft registration for young men begins in December, and major US automakers have been directed to initiate war-munitions production. 

»  A worldwide naval confrontation centered on energy and trade access. «

 

These steps indicate preparation for a prolonged war of attrition. Complementing this posture, the announced naval blockade focuses on the Indian Ocean, avoiding direct exposure to Iranian missiles near the Strait of Hormuz while effectively enforcing a global embargo on vessels deemed to support Iran, including Russian 'shadow-fleet tankers' and Chinese shipping. The conflict is thereby expanding into a worldwide naval confrontation centered on energy and trade access.

Three Competing Models for the Future International Order

The unfolding events point toward three distinct and competing models for the future international order: (1) The Technate: Focused on North America; (2) Pax Judaica: Focused on the Levant and Israel; and (3) The Third Rome: Alexander Dugin's model, where Moscow unites the Eurasian continent to create a new era of world peace.

» The US will treat the Western Hemisphere as its own territory. «

The trajectory suggests the end of the current era of relative global stability. A sustained global conflict would compel US re-industrialization to support overseas operations, positioning the US as the central supplier of resources and manufactured goods while other regions confront disruption and scarcity. Trump's long-standing mercantilist stance—evident since the 1980s in calls to seize Iranian assets—underpins this shift from a finance-oriented economy to one rooted in resources and production. Observers note that over 127 vessels are now rerouting toward the Gulf of Mexico, consistent with a deliberate strategy to redirect trade flows. President Trump has consistently advocated monetizing US naval power by imposing tariffs on maritime trade instead of providing unrestricted protection.

Russia is positioned within the expanding naval confrontation through its shadow-fleet tankers, which fall under the scope of the US global blockade. The broader context of energy-access competition places additional pressure on European and Eurasian supply lines, though specific Russian responses remain tied to the ongoing US commitments in the Iran theater.

The Technate of America

The broader US strategy aligns with the Technate of America concept, a 1930s proposal for transforming the US into a self-sufficient continental fortress governed by technocratic principles. This model envisioned a unified territory incorporating Canada, Mexico, Greenland, Colombia, and Venezuela, managed through data-driven decision-making by engineers and scientists rather than traditional democratic or financial systems. 

 

1940 Technate of America Map: From the Arctic to the Amazon — Nazi-scale Lebensraum,
master-race ideology, and still active on the US empire's agenda today. Next stop: Cuba.

  

Recent US actions reflect elements of this vision. Venezuela has been positioned as a primary US proxy in South America, with the Trump administration's National Security Strategy treating the entire Western Hemisphere as US territory—a modern corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. 

» There's an additional strategy: The US could swiftly vassalize Mexico, rapidly industrialize it, and use it to complete a North American internal economic circulation. [...] In fact, the most direct and simplest way for the US to reindustrialize would be to militarily occupy Mexico and use it as a substitute for China in its economic system. « 

Lu QiYuan, 2024.

This framework prioritizes access to Venezuelan oil and the Argentina-Bolivia-Chile Lithium Triangle, critical for advanced technologies. Related initiatives include annexing Greenland, pressure on Canada, special-forces operations against Mexican cartels, and indications of military action against Cuba in the coming month.

» Venezuela remains a major obsession for the US. The US is expected to escalate sanctions and covert actions to oust the Maduro government in order to gain access to the world's largest reserves of hydrocarbons, as well as to gold, bauxite, iron ore, uranium, diamonds, and rare-earth elements [...]. Bolivia, which has the world's largest lithium reserves, will be treated in a similar fashion. Washington think tanks still consider Brazil a "swing state," and controlling Brazil's policies remains central to US efforts to limit and sabotage BRICS in the region. « Pepe Escobar, 2024.

These policies echo the Technate's emphasis on resource security, onshoring manufacturing, and continental self-sufficiency. The nations involved in recent US disputes—Canada, Greenland, Nicaragua, Honduras, Cuba, Venezuela, Colombia, and Mexico—correspond precisely to the geographic scope outlined in the original Technate map. Elon Musk has expressed support for aspects of this framework; his grandfather was an early proponent of the movement.

Elite Civil War and Internal Tensions

The current global instability stems from an intensifying internal contest within the US between nationalist and globalist factions. Opposition to Trump's strategy is anticipated from entrenched globalist elements, including the City of London and Wall Street, which continue to influence the European Union, NATO, and segments of the US deep state. These actors may respond with economic sabotage, engineered recessions, and organized anti-war protests directed at the national draft. 

Historian Peter Turchin's analysis of elite overproduction provides context: empires decline when excess elites act as societal parasites, and the US now confronts precisely such dynamics. Emerging technology and artificial-intelligence leaders from Silicon Valley are challenging the traditional financial elite amid unprecedented levels of debt and political polarization. This domestic clash of political factions underscores the risk of extended internal conflict within the US. Comparable nationalist-globalist divides are also evident in China, Russia, Iran, and Europe. 

Reference:
Danny El-Ayoubi (April 16, 2026) - Jiang Xueqin Warns: The End of The World Has Begun. Here's Why. (video)

  

Alongside universities, libraries, museums, mosques, synagogues, churches, hospitals and schools,
more than 100 major Iranian historical and cultural sites were destroyed in recent U$raHell attacks.

 

World War Trump.
[ Jiang Xueqin, April 21, 2026 ]

See also:

 Jiang Xueqin and Alexander Dugin (April 13, 2026) - Eschatology and Geopolitics. (video)

"Iran Must Destroy Israel to Survive or It Will Be Nuked" | Paul Craig Roberts

The real issue in this conflict is the Zionist agenda of "Greater Israel." Nobody in the Western media mentions it, but it is the central fact that explains the war. As long as Israel maintains that agenda, there can be no peace, no mediation, and no negotiated settlement. The nuclear issue is merely the pretext. The real objective is to remove Iran as an obstacle to Greater Israel—just as Iraq, Libya, and Syria were removed before it. This war is part of the same process.
 

» There is no room for Iran, no room for Turkey, no room for Saudi Arabia.

Either Iran prevails, or Iran is destroyed. There is no middle ground. «

 

The Zionist agenda historically envisioned Israel stretching from the Nile to the Euphrates. Now the concept has been expanded even further. In such a vision there is no room for Iran, no room for Turkey, no room for Saudi Arabia. If that agenda is pursued, the continued existence of Iran as a sovereign state becomes incompatible with it. That means Iran cannot negotiate its survival. How does a country negotiate its own disappearance? If Israel maintains the Greater Israel agenda, there is only one outcome: either Iran prevails, or Iran is destroyed. There is no middle ground.
 

» Iran cannot negotiate its survival. «
March 16, 2026: Iran's 57th barrage of Khorramshahr and Zolfaghar missiles with cluster warheads strikes Israel, overwhelming

Iron Dome, Patriot, and THAAD. With about 2,500 missiles and layered tactics, Tehran could sustain attacks for months.

Yet the Iranian leadership has repeatedly made the same fatal mistake. They wait to be attacked. They waited to be attacked once. They waited to be attacked again. And now they risk waiting until nuclear weapons are used. This is not how wars are won. Every successful general in history understands that victory belongs to the side that takes the initiative. Napoleon understood it. Robert E. Lee understood it. George Patton understood it. Iran does not.

» Waiting to suffer catastrophic destruction before acting makes no sense. «

March 16, 2026: US-Israeli missiles bombing Tehran.

 

Iran waits until it is hit, until it loses men, facilities, and cities, and only then responds. That is not strategy. That is paralysis. If Iran has the capability to respond after a nuclear attack, then it certainly has the capability to respond before one. Waiting to suffer catastrophic destruction before acting makes no sense. The strategic reality is simple: Israel has nuclear weapons. Iran does not. That alone places Iran at a severe disadvantage if it continues to leave the initiative in Israeli and American hands. Therefore Iran faces a stark choice. Either it destroys the military capacity threatening it, or eventually those forces destroy Iran. There is no diplomatic solution to a war whose real purpose is the elimination of your country.

» Russia and China are useless as allies. «
March 16, 2026: Yan Xuetong, Chinese political scientist, confronts Israeli general at a conference, accusing
Israel of killing 70,000+ Palestinian children; the general denies, citing efforts to avoid civilian casualties.

At the same time, Iran finds itself essentially alone. Russia and China talk about multipolarity, they talk about cooperation, they talk about organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and Iran is even a member of that organization. Yet when a SCO member is fighting for its survival, Russia and China stand aside. They issue statements. They talk about trade. They talk about negotiations. But when it comes to confronting the United States and Israel directly, they disappear. This demonstrates that Russia and China are useless as allies. They are governed by leaderships that appear to have no strategic vision. They behave as if trade deals are more important than geopolitical survival. They think in terms of commerce while their partners face existential threats.

» Russia, China are not Iran's friends. Russia is an occupied
country. PUTIN is a traitor in bed with the Chabad Lubavitch. «

A few words from Moscow and Beijing—such as a mutual defense commitment—could have prevented this war from ever starting. But those words were never spoken. Instead, Iran stands alone while Russia and China pursue negotiations and trade arrangements with the very power that is trying to destroy Iran. That means Iran cannot rely on anyone else for its survival. It cannot rely on Russia. It cannot rely on China. It cannot rely on international institutions. It can only rely on itself.

» Waiting for the next attack—especially when the enemy possesses nuclear
 weapons—is not a strategy for survival. It is a strategy for extinction. « 

March 16, 2026: Israeli white phosphorus munitions exploding over Khiam in southern

Lebanon. Its use against civilians is prohibited under international humanitarian law.

Which brings the situation back to the fundamental reality: the existence of Iran is incompatible with the Greater Israel agenda. As long as that agenda exists, Iran will remain a target. Therefore Iran has only two possibilities. Either Iran destroys the forces threatening it, or those forces destroy Iran. There is no negotiation that resolves this contradiction. There is no mediation that reconciles it.

Iran must recognize that it is fighting for its life. It cannot continue to sit back, absorb blows, and respond after the fact. That approach only invites escalation to nuclear weapons. If nuclear weapons are used, the conflict will not remain regional. Once that threshold is crossed, the danger becomes global nuclear war. That is why the initiative matters. Waiting for the next attack—especially when the enemy possesses nuclear weapons—is not a strategy for survival. It is a strategy for extinction.

Reference:
Nima R. Alkhorshid (March 16, 2026) - Paul Craig Roberts: Iran is Winning. (video)

Paul Craig Roberts (b. 1939) is an American economist, columnist, and former public official who served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy under Ronald Reagan. A proponent of supply-side economics, he helped shape the Reagan administration’s economic program. Roberts later became a syndicated commentator and author, known for strongly anti-neoliberal critiques of globalization, US foreign policy, and the financial system.

March 16, 2026.

 

March 16, 2026. 
 

See also:

Paul Craig Roberts (March 16, 2026) - Either Iran or Israel Has to Go.

Col. Lawrence Wilkerson (October 5, 2025) - "If I Were Iran, I’d Wipe Israel Out Preemptively."

The Fate of the Great and the Little Satans, and a New Eurasian World Order

Suddenly, the world is watching something it has not seen in decades: a direct challenge to the military architecture that has dominated West Asia since the end of the Cold War. The question now is not only who will win this war. The real question is something far bigger: What if this war has just exposed the real power structure of the world?

» Wise people who know Iran, its people, and its history never speak to this nation

in the language of threats, because Iranians are not those who surrender. «

Imam-e Shahid Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei (April 19, 1939–February 28, 2026).

 

Most people living through history never realize when they are standing at a real turning point. They believe they are witnessing just another headline. But the war against Iran is the moment that reveals the limits of Western dominance. It forces us to ask whether the international order can survive in a world that lost faith in its legitimacy.

 

Empires do not collapse in one loud moment. They erode. They decay slowly beneath the surface until, suddenly, a crisis pulls away the curtains and reveals the truth. History works this way. The fall of great powers rarely announces itself clearly. Instead, it hides behind words like "limited strike," "defensive war," or "regional conflict." Sometimes a war becomes a revelation, and the war launched by U$raHell against Iran since February 28, 2026, may prove to be exactly that moment.

 

Teheran, a weekend during August 2025. Couple of months 
before the U$raHell bombing and toxic oil rain. Looks nice?

 

70% of Iran's science and engineering graduates are women. 

 

October 2025: Tehran's "Holy Virgin Mary" metro station opened with Christian leaders present.

 

January 6, 2026: Imam Khamenei making a surprise Christmas Eve visit to the Tehran home of an Armenian 

Christian family, consoling them over the martyrdom of their son Robert Lazar during the U$raHell riots. 

» From Gaza to Minab, innocents murdered in cold blood. «

This is not simply another "Middle East conflict," but the moment when the global power structure began to crack. For more than thirty years, the world has lived under a single unspoken rule: Western military power guarantees global order. From Washington to London, from Brussels to Tel Aviv, the message was repeated again and again. U$raHell was unstoppable. Its fleets controlled the oceans, its bases surrounded the planet, and its dollar ruled the global economy. But history teaches a lesson: empires do not collapse when they run out of weapons; they collapse when the world stops believing in their legitimacy.

 

» No. We are waiting for them. We are ready for this war. «

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's reply when asked by 

NBC News on March 5, 2026, whether he feared a U$raHell ground invasion.

The Iranians have been planning for this war ever since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. They knew that, at some point, U$raHell would go after them, and their message to all the Arab Zionist lackeys in West Asia was brutally simple: if your territory hosts U$raHell bases, you are part of the battlefield. Neutrality is an illusion. Now, all these bases in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait, and Cyprus have been reduced to rubble, and for all practical purposes Iran will need to take control of Bahrain, while Ansar Allah (the Houthis) will bring down the Saudi family dictatorship.

 

So far, the Iranian drones and missiles in use are old and inexpensive, yet U$raHell is deploying scarce and costly air defense systems, rapidly depleting its stockpiles in an attempt to stop them. The Iranians know exactly what they are doing. They have barely begun to employ their hypersonic missile arsenal, and most of Iran's underground bases remain inactive. This is an asymmetric war of attrition, and ultimately Iran—with the support of the Axis of Resistance, China, and Russia—will defeat both the Great and the Little Satan, liberating West Asia from the Anglo‑Zionist neocolonial yoke.

 

» Terror, corruption, and hypocrisy are united against us | The world has made itself ready for another world war | We hear the shouts of the world-eating Zionist Jews from the throat of the Saudi King | Takfiris, Wahhabis, and Daesh ISIS have joined together | All at the hands of the Great Satan USA | For as long as the divine spirit is in the heart of this soil our enemies will not be allowed to sleep a single night | Soon everywhere will hear the name of Hussein. | The legacy of Khomeini will become international | The arrogant have been disturbed from their long comfort | What has delayed the global Islamic Awakening? | Imam Khomeini said: Jerusalem is ours! | When you threaten us with war, our response is not weak yet | Our answer to you is on the tip of a blade | The concept of surrender is gone from our minds | In Syria, Iraq, Yemen we are ready for war. Our missiles will rain down on our enemies | Our Sejjil Missiles will drop in the heart of Tel Aviv | The voice of Haydar will roar from the Kaaba | The era of oppression will end. «  

"Haydar, Haydar " (حيدر حيدر), a devotional hymn (noha) praising Imam Ali, referred

to as Haydar—"The Lion." Stanzas performed by Karbalaei Hossein Taheri, March 2025.

 

» The people of Khomeini and Soleimani will never submit to the Jews | Iran—the whip of justice, a symbol of honor, the noblest path and purpose, the sword of Haydar. And God is with Iran | ... Your army, your people, your lineage, your path—even if we face the whole world. « 

Ansar Allah battle cry of solidarity, March 4, 2026.

 

God is great. Death to America. Death to Israel. 

Curse on the Jews. Victory to Islam.

 

We have news that a Western-linked fuel tanker is burning in the Strait of Hormuz after being hit by Iranian Revolutionary Guard drones. For decades, Western strategists believed their fleets controlled it, but geography has always favored the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran does not need to occupy the strait; it only needs to threaten it. In an energy-dependent world, even the possibility of disruption shakes the global economy.

  

» Neutrality is an illusion. «

 

Military force can win battles, but it cannot manufacture legitimacy. Now the global system itself is changing. The world is no longer unipolar. China has become the largest manufacturing and trading power on Earth, and Russia has survived military and economic warfare while continuing to fight in Ukraine against the collective West. This war will give birth to a new Eurasian world order. But this is not about geopolitics only; it is civilizational.

 

» A civilization is not a collection of objects, but a synthesis of ideas and a movement of the soul. «

Malek Bennabi, The Conditions of Renaissance, 1960.

The Algerian thinker Malek Bennabi concluded that civilizations do not collapse when they lose material power; they collapse when they lose the moral idea that justifies that power. A colonial empire can possess air forces, fleets, satellites and nukes, but once its legitimacy erodes, its power is no longer leadership but simply coercion and perversion.

  

Epstein's narcissistic, megalomaniacal BBF: not only

pure evil but truly insane. What a degenerate pervert. 

 

The U$raHell Epstein Syndicate, out of spite, revenge, impotence, pure perversion, unleashes a Black Rain

to contaminate the civilian population of Tehran. One of the filthiest war crimes of contemporary history. 

 

Professor John J. Mearsheimer: From 1971 to 2021, U$raHell murdered 38 million people.

 

God is One, and the world’s prayers, hearts, and minds are with those who suffer under oppression—with the people of Iran, Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, Cuba, Venezuela, and every nation struggling for dignity. The collapse of the Great and the Little Satans is inevitable; their global colonial empire and their decadent, predatory civilization of the Antichrist are facing their final judgment. May their doom be swift, may justice prevail, and may God protect the faithful and grant them victory. Divine grace to Iran.