Commodity Supercycles are long-term, decade-spanning periods of sustained above-average price surges, driven by major demand shocks—such as industrialization, energy transition, and urbanization—alongside supply constraints and geopolitical shifts. Notable past cycles include 1896–1920 (US industrialization), the 1970s (oil crises), and 2000–2014 (China’s rise).
Gold-S&P 500 Ratio (monthly closes, 1925 to October 2025).
» There is an early breakout in Gold versus the S&P 500, a double bottom breaking higher. This signals a shift into a world unlike the past 40 years — a transition from an era of declining interest rates to one of rising rates. That creates different money flows. Money is no longer flowing mainly into bond and stock markets; instead, it is increasingly moving into precious metals, mining companies, and commodities. This marks the beginning of an outperformance of commodities and precious metals over traditional financial assets. «Today, advancements in AI, digitization, electric vehicles, robotics, the emergence of thousands of new data centers, other technologies, and the relentless rise of BRICS+ are set to fuel an unprecedented surge in energy demand, including coal, oil, gas, hydrogen, nuclear, geothermal, solar, and more. Urgent grid overhauls and expansions will drive a massive increase in demand for key metals such as lithium, nickel, silver, and copper.
The current Commodity Supercycle (2022-2045) is driven by several financial key factors, with interest rates playing
a central role. From 1980 to 2021, declining rates favored Bonds and Stocks, creating cup-and-handle patterns in Gold and Silver. Now, the
shift to an increasing interest rate environment is disrupting this
dynamic, as evidenced by a shoulder-head-shoulder topping pattern in
bonds.
When rates hit 4.5-5% on the 10-Year US Treasury Note Yield, stocks are likely to
decouple, with rates rising while stocks stagnate or decline. The Dollar (DXY), currently in an uptrend channel, could accelerate commodity
gains if it breaks downward. Inflation cycles further shape this
landscape: disinflation boosts safe-haven assets like gold and silver,
while accelerating inflation drives broader commodity markets. Money
printing, such as the significant stimulus in April 2025 (Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act), fuels gold and
silver in real-time, with other commodities responding as money flows
through the system.
Investment Potential Rankings: Commodities and Financial Instruments (October 2025):
Top: Lithium, Coal, Iron Ore. iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ: tracks large/mid-cap Brazilian equities for emerging market exposure), VanEck Steel ETF (SLX: tracks global steel sector companies (production, mining, fabrication). Highest potential due to recent bottoms, high historical leverage (50-150x for coal/iron ore, 20x for EWZ), strong breakout patterns, and inflation-sensitive demand (EV/BESS for Lithium, Steel +1.1%). Under-the-radar status maximizes asymmetry.Mid: Copper, Nickel, Natural Gas, Silver, Platinum, Palladium: Strong performers with breakouts or bottoming patterns; Silver/Platinum have top performer potential but face consolidation or supply risks; Copper near highs but neutral Q4 2025; nickel oversupply concerns.Low: Oil bearish short-term ($60/bbl YE2025); Gold strong but nearing consolidation, and less leverage than Silver.Lowest: S&P 500, NASDAQ, Bonds. Financial assets face headwinds from rising rates (4.5-5% disconnect); bonds least attractive due to downtrend and rotation to commodities.
The ongoing and escalating worldwide commodity boom is unfolding in a clear sequence: It began
in 2022 with a disinflation phase, where gold and silver led as
safe-haven assets, potentially pushing silver prices toward $60-90. Over
the next six to twelve months, a transition is expected where gold and silver may consolidate or experience choppy trading (point 7. in the historic long-term fractal).
Platinum-Palladium Ratio (monthly bars, 1986 to October 2025).
Platinum-Silver Ratio (monthly bars, 1986 to October 2025).
Copper-Gold Ratio (monthly bars, 1986 to October 2025).
Oil-Gold Ratio (monthly bars, 1984 to October 2025).
This mirrors historical patterns, such as the 2018-2020 period when gold rose during a slowdown, followed by oil's sharp rally in August 2020 after gold consolidated. The current cycle aligns with the 2001-2008 commodity bull market, characterized by a declining dollar and strong commodity outperformance against financial assets, as signaled by gold's breakout against the S&P 500.
In 2025, Precious Metals are surging,
with gold and silver both up over 60% year-to-date and mining stocks
nearly doubling in value. Technical indicators suggest short-term
overbought conditions, but the long-term outlook remains bullish.
Notably, spot silver has climbed above $50, showing backwardation
against futures prices around $48.70, indicating strong physical demand
and potential discrepancies between paper and physical markets.
Platinum, currently at a 0.4 ratio to gold, could revert to
its historical mean of 1.2-2x gold’s price, with potential to hit 5.5-6x
as seen in the early 1900s. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Copper (nearing all-time
highs), Steel (breaking out), Iron Ore, Nickel, and Lithium (up 100-300%
from bottoms) are also strong contenders.
Platinum-Gold Ratio currently 0.41 (gold/platinum 2.44) as of October 2025, with platinum at $975/oz, gold $3975/oz. Historical: Platinum premium (up to 6.63:1 in 1968) until late 1990s due to industrial demand (catalysts, auto); low 0.05 in 1885. Fluctuations from supply disruptions (South Africa/Russia mines), financial crises, geopolitical tensions, inflation fears; gold safe-haven spikes ratio in downturns (e.g., 2.3x in 2020, 3.1x Feb 2025).
Historical parallels provide further context. In the 1930s, gold’s revaluation with flat input costs led to massive mining gains. The inflationary 1970s and 2000s resemble today’s environment, while the 1940s-80s increasing rate cycle mirrors current conditions, with silver moving from consolidation to a boom.
This is not solely a precious metals bull
market but part of a broader commodity and hard assets cycle. To maximize returns in the current commodity cycle, one should have invested in under-the-radar commodities like oil, natural gas, iron ore, nickel, and copper between April and May 2025, when they formed quiet bottoms—evident in patterns like inverted head-and-shoulders and double bottoms—before gaining mainstream attention.
These assets, now moving higher, offered significant asymmetry as smart money positioned early, capitalizing on low public interest. For those yet to invest, opportunities remain in inflation-sensitive commodities like steel, coal, and lithium, which are breaking out or showing early uptrends, particularly as the dollar weakens and money flows from bonds and stocks.
back to its 2000 level, which could take many years. For now, we are right at the upper rail.
The biggest Bull Market of our Lifetimes is underway.
Moves that took years to unfold now happen in Months/Weeks.
A generational set-up unfolding. Go long and stay long.
The global financial shift isn’t coming—it’s already here. Gold. Silver. BRICS. De-dollarization. Geopolitics
and geoeconomics now underpin the unfolding of the next great global
commodity supercycle: escalating US–China rivalries, supply-chain
fractures, and rising WW3 risks accelerate the decline of the United
States’ 250-year empire-life cycle while cementing China’s ascent.
Collapsing US stock indices–to–gold ratios reveal deep monetary stress,
aligning with inflationary, interest-rate, and commodity-cycle dynamics
that signal dollar devaluation and the breakdown of the post–World War
II global financial system. The Great Rotation out of paper
assets—equities and bonds—into hard, tangible assets is igniting what
the charts suggest will become the greatest commodity bull market of our
lifetimes.
Wealth
preservation now hinges on tangible inflation hedges—metals such as
lithium, copper, and nickel; precious metals including gold, silver,
platinum, and palladium; and energy assets spanning coal, oil, gas,
hydrogen, nuclear, geothermal, and solar. Avoid rate-sensitive exposure
in US stock indices, and bonds; instead, accumulate undervalued,
cash-flow-rich commodity producers and physical holdings to capture
asymmetric, real-asset returns into around 2040.
See also:
