Bullish Weekly Price Action in US Stock Indices & Stats | Guilherme Tavares

From a price action perspective, the latest weekly close was quite bullish. Since the 70s, there have been few instances when the SPX reclaimed its 50-week MA within just 1 week after losing it, having previously been in an upward trend.

Average return 5 weeks later: 2.95%, positive 83% of the time.

Guilherme Tavares, March 25, 2025.

 

 NYA, SPY, ES, S&P 500, NQ, YM (weekly candles): 

Weekly Pivots and Retracement Levels.

 

Wednesday, March 26: Continuation or Reversal?

 

Frank Ochoa (March 25, 2025) - Pre-Market Video:
Last Week Compression. This Week Bullish Expansion? (video)

 Oppenheimer: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Trajectory (2020-2025): 

Buy March 23. From April high sideways-to-down into mid May low.

BoA: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Pattern (2015-2025): 

"Buy April Dip for May Rip."

 

Jeff Hirsch: April is the second-best month for DJIA (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950 and
fourth best for NASDAQ (+1.3%) since 1971. Post-election year April performance is just as good.

 

Carl Futia : June S&P E-mini futures headed for new bull market highs. 

Support is now 5800. 

 

Tom Pizzuti (March 25, 2025: "I’m not wholly certain that the wave iii low was set on

March 13th. and thus, open to a new low to complete iii. Of course, I could be wrong."

 

Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%. 

See also:
TPR (March 23, 2025) - Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2.

Markets Crash On Cue & Trump Won't Rule Out Recession | Martin Armstrong

Comment by Kirk: It looks like Trump is aware of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM). Markets crashed right on cue with Socrates, and he refused to rule out a recession. What is most curious is that you had a Panic Cycle for this week of March 10 [...]

 

Reply by Martin Armstrong: The ECM turned down on May 7, 2024. That was the day of the attempted assassination of Zelensky. Within weeks, the central banks started lowering rates. [...] We are headed into a Global RECESSION no matter what Trump thinks or does.

 

 Dow Jones Industrials Index - Weekly Timing Arrays (Feb 24 - May 12, 2025)

[...] This is NOT my personal opinion. Socrates is the only fully functioning Artificial Intelligence Computer with more than a 40-year track record. [...] It will be a depression in some regions, primarily Europe. One country alone does not dictate the trend globally. Trump cannot create an economic boom when the rest of the world is imploding.

Reference:
Martin Armstrong (March 10, 2025) - Markets Crash On Cue & Trump Refuses to Rule Out Recession.

 Explanation of Martin Armstrong's Weekly Timing Arrays.

 

See also:

Martin Armstrong (December 23, 2024) - Outlook for 2025: Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction.

DJIA and S&P Bullish Into Year-End, with Bouts of Profit Taking | Day Hagan

In the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500, near-term resistance exists within bullish price channels, as negative A/D Line divergences are resolved. The bulls remain in control, but we are watching for signs that the post-election market action signals the beginning of a transition to a choppier 2025. Large-, mid-, and small-cap proxies didn’t come close to filling the upside gap created by the election results, nor did they break below their recent topside breakout ranges and levels. I view this as supportive (bullish) in the near term. It also suggests that the recent low serves as the first level of short-term support.

DJIA and S&P 500 (daily bars). Short-term resistance is still in place. When coupled 

with high levels of “Excessive Optimism”, bouts of profit-taking shouldn’t be surprising. Mind the gaps.

Have equities brought forward the historically bullish returns of the fourth quarter following elections? Are we at risk of such an occurrence? While I still believe there will be instances of profit-taking as we approach year-end, I consider seasonal charts to be secondary; they are not as significant as primary indicators and models.

The Dow Industrials' Four-Year Presidential Cycle suggests a choppy start to 2025, with weakness in the latter part of the 

first presidential year extending into the second year—an outlook that has not been widely discussed on Wall Street.

 

The bull market typically continues into the first year after an election, but the first two years tend to be rocky. Many bear markets begin in the first year and persist into the midterm election year, as seen with the bear market that started in 2021 and continued into 2022. Therefore, looking ahead, prudence suggests adopting an investment strategy that objectively manages risk.

Reference:
Day Hagan (November 27, 2024) - Bullish into Year-End with Bouts of Profit Taking.

 

The typical December Seasonal Pattern starts off dull and pops mid-month.

US Stock Market Nearing a Top Similar to 1929 │ Tom DeMark

The stock market has been charging along for months. Perhaps not for much longer. Tom DeMark, an award-winning technical analyst who has advised investors such as Paul Tudor Jones, Leon Cooperman, and Steven A. Cohen, believes a market top is imminent.

DeMark highlights that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, from its December 1914 low to its September 1929 high, rallied 624%. From the 2009 low to this week’s high, the Dow has gained 587%. He notes that the current price action mirrors the patterns from the earlier period.  

 

DeMark focuses on trend exhaustion, with the guiding principle that "markets top on good news and bottom on bad." He uses sequences of 9 and 13 daily, weekly, or monthly bars, which need not be consecutive but must exceed the performance from 4 sessions ago in the 9-model or 2 sessions ago in the 13-model. For more information on DeMark's Sequential 9-13 Setup, visit his website [HERE], and [HERE].

 DJIA (1913-1933, and 2008-current; monthly bars).

"On the daily charts of the Dow and S&P, two new all-time highs are needed to trigger a sell signal."

DeMark suggests the Dow’s optimistic upside potential is 47,045, and for the S&P 500, it is 6,118.

"This could lead to a 5% to 10% pullback or a full breakdown."

 

 DJIA (2019-2024; monthly bars).

He also compares the current rally to the one from 2020 to early 2022. The multi-month advance from late 2022 shows a potential upside projection identical to that earlier move.  

 

 DJIA (Q4 2024; daily bars).

For the S&P 500, DeMark reports that the monthly sequential model countdown is at 12 or 13, with an upside potential of 6,118. The S&P 500 closed Thursday, November 14, at 5,949, unable to maintain gains above the 6,000 mark. 

 

On the daily charts, both the Dow and S&P are at sequential countdown 11, meaning two new all-time highs are needed to trigger a sell signal. This could lead to a 5% to 10% pullback or a full breakdown. "The past two weeks' rally has been precarious. A sudden halt in buying—without selling pressure—could undermine the rally and shift the market into a sellers’ phase."

 

"While good news may last until Trump's inauguration, once buying interest fades, any subsequent rallies are likely to be short-lived." 

  Nvidia (February-November 2024; daily bars).

"A new closing high would mark the end of its rally."

DeMark is also cautious about Nvidia, the key microchip maker driving the AI revolution, which reports results next week. The stock is at countdown 12, and a new closing high would mark the end of its rally. DeMark projects Nvidia’s upside potential at $154.50 but warns the downside risk "could be significant."

 

Reference:
Steve Goldstein (November 15, 2024) - Tom DeMark says the stock market is nearing a top as he draws 1929 parallels.

 

 DeMark's Sequential 9-13 Setup.

 

See also:
Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.
Sergey Tarassov (September 8, 2024) - Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025. 

 

 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Presidential Election Cycle 2024 - 2027.
4 Year Presidential Cycle in line with the Decennial Cycle. 

Trends and turning points are more important than levels. 60-, 80-, or 120-Year Cycle?

U.S. Stock Market Seasonality of the Week Before Thanksgiving │ Jeff Hirsch

DJIA has a fair track record over the last 31 years, rising 20 times the week before Thanksgiving (November 18-22) with an average gain of 0.44% in all years. But the other major U.S. stock market benchmarks are not as strong and there has been more weakness the past seven years. Since 2017, DJIA has advanced just once during the week before Thanksgiving.

Week Before Thanksgiving: DJIA Up 20 of 31, but Down in 6 of the Last 7.

 

Over the last 31 years, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have the same record, up 18 times, with similar average gains of 0.20% and 0.23% respectively. Russell 2000 has been the weakest, up 16 times with an average gain of 0.08%. Last year, the week before Thanksgiving, enjoyed solid across-the-board gains as the market recovered from a correction.

Should weakness materialize next week, it may be a solid set up for the Thanksgiving trade of buying into weakness the week before Thanksgiving and selling into strength around the holiday and/or during typical November end-of-month strength.

Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 15, 2024) - Week before Thanksgiving DJIA Up 20 of 31, But Down 6 of last 7. 

 

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 5, 2024) - Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 6, 2024) - Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish.

Unconfirmed Uptrend According to Dow Theory | Stephen Suttmeier

The current position of Dow Theory is an unconfirmed uptrend, or bull market, with new highs for the Industrials (DJIA) and a lack of new highs for the Transports (DJT). 

Until the Transports confirm the highs on the Industrials, this bearish non-confirmation signal for Dow Theory is a market risk.

Stephen Suttmeier — October 17, 2024.

Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025 | Sergey Tarassov

 » DJIA correction begun, and the 41 Month Kitchin Cycle suggests a decline until the end of 2025. «  
 —  Sergey Tarassov, August 5, 2024.

 

» Multiyear High in the DJIA between June and October 2024, i.e. sometime
between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle.  «    
 —  Sergey Tarassov, June 25, 2024.

Reference:
Sergey Tarassov (August 5, 2024) - Tune Up 41 Month Kitchin Cycle for DJIA. (video)
Sergey Tarassov (June 25, 2024) - Review of Forecasts for DJIA, Gold, Bitcoin, IOC and Mexican Peso. (video)

 2024 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table: » Major Panic - CRASH! «

 

Panic Cycles Week July 15 - 19 & Week September 9 - 13.

—  Martin Armstrong, June 14, 2024.

 

2024 DJIA Compared to 40-Month and 42-Month Cycles | Sergey Tarassov

Multiyear High in the DJIA between now and October 2024, i.e. sometime 

between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle (August 2024).

 

Reference:

 Sergey Tarassov (June 25, 2024) - Review of Forecasts for DJIA, Gold, Bitcoin, IOC and Mexican Peso. (video)

Sergey Tarassov (October 14, 2022) - 40 Month and 42 Month Kitchin Economical Cycles - Case Study. o)

Algo vs DJIA | Handler & Associates, Inc.

Reference:
Handler & Associates, Inc. (April 25, 2024) - OSS Nightly Indicators - Email Newsletter.

Pervasive Euphoria Across The Market | Lines on a Chart by Tom

The markets closed another week at record highs, with the S&P 500 up by 2.3%, the Nasdaq by 3%, and the Dow by 2%. [...] I want to share two charts that caught my attention: The first chart, courtesy of Sentimentrader, depicts the small speculator index at the bottom. The annotation succinctly captures the essence of the chart— "small speculators are all in." 

 

 Small speculators are all-in.

This mirrors my observation last week regarding fund managers being fully invested based on the NAAIM index. The alignment between market participants, both large and small, underscores the pervasive euphoria across the market.

 Tech leadership vs S&P 500 is at highs exceeding the Great Financial Crisis.

The second chart, from Bank of America Global Research, highlights the Technology leadership versus the S&P 500, reaching levels surpassing those seen before the Great Financial Crisis. This serves as an intriguing backdrop to maintain awareness as sentiment and positioning continue to stretch.

Quoted from:

TomTheTrader1 @ Twitter/X
Lines on a Chart by Tom - (Mar 24, 2024) - The Market & The Moon. 

 

This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index number is 93.22. 

Active fund managers are all-in.

 

 [Euphoriameter]

 

 [CNN Fear & Greed Index ]

 

 

 [McClellan Oscillator]

 

2024 Economic Forecast │ James Kim

The interest rate changes in the United States trigger international capital movements, which are reflected in the Dow Jones Index, an indicator of such movements. To predict future economic conditions, understanding the trends in U.S. interest rates and the Dow Jones Index can provide insights into both the U.S. and global economies. To comprehend the economic situation from 2023 to 2024, it's observable that the patterns of interest rates and Dow Jones Index during 2006-2007 are similar. The period when the U.S. continuously raises interest rates and then freezes them, leading up to a rate cut, is known as the 'Goldilocks' period, which is typically a phase of a major bull market in stocks.

 

 To aid your understanding, I have specified concrete dates. 

Think of these as reference points, focusing on the patterns and the dates surrounding them.

 

 When interest rates are frozen consecutively three times (Point (d)), the market gains confidence that there will be no further rate hikes. Similar to 2006, when three consecutive rate freezes led to breaking historical highs, the same pattern was observed on December 13, 2023, breaking the historical high of January 4, 2022 (Point (f) ).

 

The peak of the U.S. economy is predicted to be on May 8, 2024, with the U.S. stock market artificially creating a peak for about six months (until the first rate cut). The global economy, with the decline of the U.S. dollar, moves towards a strong bull market in individual countries. The magic of exchange rates creates opportunities for profit through currency differences and stock appreciation, leading to a surge in global stock markets. Global and U.S. stock markets are expected to start declining simultaneously around November 15, 2024 (just before the U.S. rate cut). At this point, the U.S. economy would have been declining for about six months from its peak, while the global economy, excluding the U.S., remains stable.

I believe there are signs of a weakening U.S. economy, which will lead to the start of interest rate cuts by the end of 2024. Eventually, about a year later on December 12, 2025, both the U.S. and the world will face an economic crisis. The peak of the U.S. economy is expected in May, while the global economy is predicted to peak in the second quarter of 2025 [...] I hope you too can achieve favorable outcomes during this time.

(1. - 4.) On August 2, 2023, through my posts, I predicted the breaking of the historical high of the Dow Jones Index and the freezing of U.S. interest rates (the Goldilocks period). I forecasted the peak of the stock market, the timing of the economic crisis, and all phases up to the great depression in 2032. By looking at my past Twitter posts, one can see that the results are following the same patterns exactly as predicted. My posts will be helpful to understand these patterns: 

(1.) Prediction of the 13th and 14th Cycles of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): This post outlines my predictions for the 13th and 14th cycles of the U.S. stock market and its potential trajectory. 

(2.) Forecast for the 14th and Current 15th Cycle (Great Depression Period) of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): In this tweet, I discuss the ongoing 15th cycle and its connection to the anticipated great depression period.
(3.) Prediction for the 14th and Current 15th Cycle of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): This tweet further elaborates on my predictions for the 14th and current 15th cycle of the U.S. stock market.
(4.) Estimation of the Dow Jones Lowest Point, Interest Rate Freeze (Goldilocks Period), and Major Bull Market (August 3, 2023): This post from August 3, 2023, predicts the lowest point of the Dow Jones, the freezing of interest rates (Goldilocks period), and the onset of a major bull market.

Quoted from:

James Kim @ X (Jan 2, 2024) - 2024 Economic Forecast.

The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle in Stocks │ Edward R. Dewey

Another cycle that has done all in its power to keep cycle scientists humble is one averaging 40.68 months in length. It has been present in industrial common-stock prices since 1871 and was discovered in 1912 by a New York group of investors. These gentlemen had learned that the Rothschilds had analyzed British consols (government obligations) and had broken up the price fluctuations into a series of repeating curves that had been combined and used for forecasting. The New York group hired a mathematician to discover the secret formula of the Rothschilds, and working with the Dow-Jones Railroad Averages, he discovered a forty-one-month cycle, plus three others, which his employers used to help them invest in the market. Apparently they were very successful around World War I.

 

Figure 38: The 41-Month Rhythm in Stock Prices, 1868-1945.

 

Some ten years after the original discovery, Professor W. L. Crum, of Harvard, noted a cycle of "39, 40, or 41 months" in monthly commercial-paper rates in New York. Almost simultaneously, Professor Joseph Kitchin, also of Harvard, discovered a cycle that he called forty months in six economic time series, bank clearings, commodity prices, and interest rates in both Great Britain and the United States from 1890 to 1922. As far as I know, it was not until 1935, twenty-three years after the original discovery, that this cycle was again noticed in the stock market. Our old friend Chapin Hoskins, who knew nothing of the earlier work, discovered this cycle in many series of price and production figures, including common-stock prices. Early in 1938 he made an extensive study of this cycle for one of the large investment-trust services.

Figure 38 shows the forty-one-month cycle (now refined to 40.68 months) from 1868 through 1945. As you can see, while its waves are not identical to an ideal 40.68 wave, which is represented by the broken zigzag, there is an amazing correspondence between them. This cycle persisted through wars and peace, good times and depressions.

Then, in 1946, something strange happened to our cycle. Almost as if some giant hand had reached down and pushed it, the cycle stumbled, and by the time it had regained its equilibrium it was marching completely out of step from the ideal cadence it had maintained for so many years. As you can see in Figure 39, it has regained the approximate beat of forty-one months or so, as before, but its behavior now appears upside down on our graph.

 

Figure 39: The 41-Month Rhythm, Upside Down, 1946-1957.

 

Scores of explanations and reams of paper have been expended to explain this behavior. We are familiar with most of the possibilities, such as distortion by random behavior, two or more other cycles of near lengths, and even a general public knowledge of this particular cycle, which may have had a distorting effect on its timing. But, in truth, no one can positively explain what happened in 1946 any more than they can explain the regularity of the rhythm for all the years that preceded it.

Quoted from:
Edward R. Dewey & Og Mandino (1971) - Cycles: The Mysterious Forces that Trigger Events.

 

Joseph Kitchin (1923) - Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors.
 

42-Month Cycle in the DJIA (weekly bars), March 2020 - October 2023.