September Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1950, September has historically delivered bearish stock market performance across major indexes, with all-year averages dropping 0.6% to 0.8% by month-end. Midterm-election years significantly amplify this weakness through four-phases: 

 

► Sep 1–8 (Tue–Tue) = Trading Days 1–5: Sideways-to-up / modestly higher. Most midterm series (especially Russell 2000 and DJIA) rise, with several peaking near +0.5% to +1.0%.
► Sep 9–17 (Wed–Thu) = TD 6–12: Sideways to mildly fading. Early gains are largely held or only slowly given back. S&P 500 midterm often remains the strongest (still near its peak), while NASDAQ and Russell lines begin drifting lower.
► Sep 18–25 (Fri–Fri) = TD 13–18: Steady decline. The mid-month advantage disappears; indices trend lower and most move into negative territory.
► Sep 28–30 (Mon–Wed) = TD 19–21: Accelerating sell-off / sharp weakness. Losses deepen, particularly in NASDAQ and Russell 1000 (historically finishing around –1.6% to –1.8%). Russell 2000 also shows a late plunge.

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 1, 2026) - September Seasonality: Weakness Intensifies in Midterm Years.

Average S&P 500 total-return path (indexed to 100 on midterm Election Day) for all midterm years since 1970 (1970–2022), spanning roughly ±6 months. X-axis centers on Election Day (first Tuesday in November); y-axis tracks cumulative total return. The average line rises in the final ~22 trading days before the election (= October 2, 2026) and continues higher afterward (+14.1% average in the following six months). A separate “Lost Control” series (party loses presidential trifecta) lags the broader average post-election (+10.4% vs. +16.1%).

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Seth Golden (July 28, 2026) - Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains.

Third-to-Last Trading Day of August: 90.5% Bullish Record | Jeff Hirsch

August's third-to-last trading day is a calendar favorite for the bulls. Over the past 21 years, the S&P 500 has risen 19 times—a 90.5% win rate—making it one of only two days of the year with 19 gains in 21 years; the other is the first trading day of July.

 Bullish Third-to-Last Trading Day of August (2005-2025).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has an even stronger claim: its third-to-last trading day of August has been its best-performing day of the entire year, also gaining 19 of 21 times (90.5%).

This unusually strong late-August bias may reflect seasonal positioning: institutions prepare portfolios for the fall, retirement and investment contributions continue, and investors anticipate upcoming earnings, economic data, and Federal Reserve developments. With August ending, markets also begin positioning for the historically active final four months of the year.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (August 26, 2026) - Dow's Best Day of the Year.

See also:
Jeff Hirsch (July 25, 2026) - August Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Seth Golden (July 28, 2026) - Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains.

Price Performance vs. Zodiac Signs, Lunar Phase & Mercury Retrograde

S&P 500 (SPX) performance by color-shaded Zodiac Signs (2016–2026),

New Moon, Full Moon and rosa-shaded Mercury Retrograde periods. 

S&P 500 Strategy: Go long during bullish zodiac phases and short during bearish phases; hold through phase end with a 2% stop-loss (1% tighter stops improved results). Starting with $1,000, a 10 year walk-forward case study produced $5,410. The win rate exceeded RSI, Stochastic, and MFI, slightly outperforming Stochastic. Low-win-rate signs (e.g., Gemini at 39%) can be omitted. 

Augmented version: Enter long only when Stochastic (14,1,3) ≤20 during a bullish phase; enter short only when ≥80 during a bearish phase; hold through the full phase. Python backtest: $18,571.79 over two years with a 66.67% win rate. 

Using 10 years of S&P 500, Mercury retrograde periods frequently preceded major pivots, with post-retrograde directional flips.

Upcoming Events (dates and times for New York City):

Jul 29 (Wed), 2026 07:34 EDT — Full Moon (Buck Moon)

Aug 12 (Wed), 2026 12:11 EDT — New Moon

Aug 23 (Sun), 2026 00:19 EDT — enters Virgo (150 deg from 0 deg Aries = vernal equinox)

Aug 27 (Thu), 2026 19:18 EDT — Full Moon (Sturgeon Moon / Lunar Eclipse)

Sep 10 (Thu), 2026 21:12 EDT — New Moon

Sep 22 (Tue), 2026 16:05 EDT — enters Libra (180 deg) (Fall Equinox)

Sep 26 (Sat), 2026 05:49 EDT — Full Moon (Corn / Harvest Moon)
Oct 10 (Sat), 2026 08:51 EDT — New Moon

Oct 22 (Thu), 2026 23:00 EDT — enters Scorpio (210 deg)

Oct 24 (Sat), 2026 03:02 EDT — Mercury Retrograde Begins

Oct 25 (Sun), 2026 15:38 EDT — Full Moon (Hunter's Moon)
Nov 08 (Sun), 2026 23:02 EST — New Moon

Nov 13 (Fri), 2026 11:01 EST — Mercury Direct Resumes

Nov 21 (Sat), 2026 16:00 EST — enters Sagittarius (240 deg)

Nov 24 (Tue), 2026 00:53 EST — Full Moon (Beaver Moon)
Dec 08 (Tue), 2026 15:49 EST — New Moon

Dec 21 (Mon), 2026 10:50 EST — Capricorn (270 deg) (Winter Solstice)

Dec 23 (Wed), 2026 09:28 EST — Full Moon (Cold Moon)

 

Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX; 2016–2026) 

 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD; 2016–2026) 

Gold (XAUUSD; 2016–2026) 

Silver (XAGUSD; 2016–2026)

 

WTI Light Crude Oil (XTIUSD; 2016–2026)

 

Dollar Index (DXY; 2016–2026)

 

Reference:

Astrology Toolkit [SS] TradingView Indicator coded by Steversteves. 

 

Forecast Based on "Moon Synodic + Sun in Virgo" Model | Sergey Tarassov

 

 

 [HERE]

 

See also:
TPR (2024) - 24 Chinese Solar Terms in 2025. Winter Begins Today (立冬 - Lì Dōng).
Tianbao Zhou et al. (2021) - Chinese Stock Indices, Gann Time Theory and Solar Terms.
W.D. Gann (1950s) - How to Divide the Yearly Time Period.

The Turn-of-the-Month Effect: A Century of Empirical Evidence

The turn-of-the-month (TOM) stock market anomaly, where returns cluster heavily around month-end and early-month trading days, is validated by academic literature. Analyzing Dow Jones data from 1910 to the present using a relative trading day counter that excludes weekends and holidays reveals that while mid-month returns remain weak or negative, performance surges dramatically from the second-to-last trading day (day -2) through the fourth trading day (day +4) of the new month. 

 The TOM anomaly (-2 to +4 trading days) has delivered persistent outperformance

versus buy-and-hold with lower drawdowns across 116 years of Dow data.  

 

Segmenting this 116-year history into three 40-year periods (1910–1950, 1950–1990, and 1990–present) confirms consistent TOM outperformance across all regimes, despite a post-1990 dip on the final trading day skewed by rare macro anomalies like 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis. A systematic strategy trading this -2 to +4 window historically outperformed traditional buy-and-hold, generating higher profits with lower drawdowns during the 1929 crash, multi-decade sideways markets, the dot-com bust, and the 2022 bear market, showing historical flat periods often precede strong resurgences. The strategy's second-largest drawdown occurred in 2008, supporting the outlier theory. 

 

Hypothesized causes like recurring automated capital flows (salaries/retirement) and institutional rebalancing remain unproven, as trading volumes do not spike and automated systems did not exist in 1910. Lacking a definitive causal consensus, the TOM effect persists either as a structural confluence or an unexplained anomaly. 

 

See also:
Unger Academy USA (2019) - Trading Strategies: End Of Month Rally. (video)

August Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

The chart isolates August performance across Trump's first term (2017–2020), 2025, and the 2018 midterm. Returns have exceeded August's bearish reputation, but the structure persists: early weakness, late strength.

 

Early-month weakness, stronger second half: On average, the Nasdaq closed up nearly 6%.

Lows on August 13 (Thu) and August 17 (Mon), followed by a near 3% DJIA rally into month-end.

 

Trump-era policy shocks have repeatedly triggered selloffs that quickly reversed into "TACO Trade" rallies. This cycle differs—tensions with Iran appear less susceptible to rapid de-escalation. Seasonality is supportive, but elevated valuations, geopolitical risk, and macro fragility increase the odds that August 2026 diverges from precedent.
 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2026) - Can Trump Defy August’s Bearish Reputation Again?

 

S&P 500 2026 vs. best-correlated year: 2007 (84%).  

 

SOX, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 Annual Seasonal Patterns 1995-2025.

August Stock Market Performance 2001-2021.

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.  

Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026.

Jack Gillen (1979) - Important Solar and Lunar Degrees for Trading US Stock Indices.

DJIA Triggers Down Friday/Down Monday Signal at 51,839 | Jeff Hirsch

The DJIA recorded its sixth Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) of 2026 this week—a signal worth monitoring based on Stock Trader’s Almanac research (2026 ed., p. 78). A DF/DM occurs when the DJIA declines on Friday (or the final trading day of the week) and the following Monday (or first trading day of the next week). While not a guaranteed sell signal, history shows DF/DMs often mark inflection points and have frequently preceded weakness within 90 calendar days. Short-term rebounds are common, but many have been temporary.

 DJIA performance hinges on whether the 51,839.26 DF/DM level holds.

The latest DF/DM followed DJIA’s sharp July 17 (Fri) decline, which ended a multiweek advance amid technology and semiconductor weakness, geopolitical concerns, and rising oil prices. Monday’s attempted dip-buying rebound failed, leaving open whether current strength is durable or simply another post-DF/DM bounce.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures (daily bars):

DF/DM history suggests the next 90 days depend on 51,839.

 

Since 2000, the DJIA has experienced 271 DF/DMs. In only 32 cases (11.8%) did the DJIA avoid closing below the Monday DF/DM close over the next 90 days. When that level held, returns were historically stronger; when breached, performance was notably weaker, with limited gains over the following 60 trading days. The key level is Monday's close of 51,839.26. Holding above it would suggest this DF/DM may be a temporary setback; a close below it would increase the historical risk of further weakness.
 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 21, 2026) - DJIA Down Friday/Down Monday: A Key Level to Watch. 

 

See also:

Tom Hougaard (2025) - The Thursday-Friday-Monday Pattern.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Christopher Grafton (July 13, 2026) - S&P 500 Update: 80-Day Cycle Peak by Late-July. 

Nicholas D. Savino (June 30, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026.

July OpEx Since 1990: Friday –0.35%, Then Stabilization | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1990, July options expiration has been choppy, with the weakest performance on expiration Friday: DJIA and S&P 500 average –0.35%, NASDAQ –0.44%, and all three decline about two-thirds of the time. 

Expiration week is mixed—DJIA +0.38% (58.3% positive), S&P 500 ~flat (–0.04%), NASDAQ –0.13%. The following week stabilizes modestly (DJIA +0.15%, S&P 500 +0.09%); NASDAQ averages –0.17% but rises in 52.8% of years, skewed by a few large drops. Overall, July expiration tends to create brief downside pressure that fades as focus returns to earnings and fundamentals.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 14, 2026) - July Monthly Option Expiration: Weakest Friday, Modestly Better Following Week.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Christopher Grafton (July 13, 2026) - S&P 500 Update: 80-Day Cycle Peak by Late-July. 

Nicholas D. Savino (June 30, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for July 2026.

Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026 | Sergey Tarassov

Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution charts correlate the S&P 500 with harmonics of the 41-month Kitchin cycle (currently averaging 1,267.7 days, or 3.473 years).

 

 Note: Based on daily closes, the plotted waves are band-pass–filtered components centered on the target periodicity

(Kitchin range) and subsequently smoothed via averaging/Fourier/digital filtering, suppressing high-frequency noise

and yielding a clean sinusoidal form. Accordingly, they lack utility for day trading or short-term execution.  

The cycle projections (green, blue, and magenta lines) for 2026 in the first chart suggest that the current sideways-to-down phase in the S&P 500 concludes by mid-late-July, followed by a strong projected surge into year-end, then a decline or retracement into Q1–early Q2 2027, and a renewed rise into Q1 2028.

The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection of the S&P through 2028.

  

The long-term chart (2021–2028) indicates an upward trajectory in the S&P 500’s Kitchin cycle into late 2026, followed by a sharp correction in Q1 2027 and a continued rise extending through 2027–2028.

  

Reference:

Sergey Tarassov (July 11, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle and S&P 500.

See also:

Sergey Tarassov (2024) - Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025.

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - The Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. 

 

Cyclical Profiles of Kitchin (41-Month) and other Dominant Cycles across Assets and Sectors. 

 

Sergey Tarassov's table classifies each asset by its dominant cyclical drivers (e.g., Kitchin ~3–4y, Juglar ~9y, sunspot harmonics, Venus synodic, 7.8y Gold) and indicates which periodicities statistically dominate price behavior. The “Profile” column quantifies cycle influence, showing the proportion or confidence of a given cycle explaining variance (e.g., “Kitchin 100%” = primary driver). Overall, it’s a multi-cycle attribution framework used to build composite waveforms and time market turning points via overlapping periodic structures. "H" notation interpreted as harmonic components (e.g., 2H, 3H, 4H of Sunspot cycle). "Venus syn" → "Venus synodic" for clarity. Consistent cycle formatting: Cycle (length) where applicable. Ranges unified: e.g., 2H–4H instead of 2H 3H 4H. Missing profiles left blank (—) rather than inferred.

 

Key Cycle Periodicities. 

The second table standardizes all cycles of the first into approximate durations in days and years. Kitchin Cycle (~3.3y) ≈ Sunspot Cycle 3H (~3.7y) explains why they co-appear frequently in the dataset. Other key dominant drivers are: 5.5y (Sunspot 2H) → strongest macro-economic driver (confirmed in GDP note), 7.8y (Gold cycle) → dominant in FX + metals, and 9y (Juglar) → long equity + credit structure. Instruments with Kitchin + 3H Sunspot + Venus synodic (e.g., crypto, grains) tend to show high volatility clustering due to cycle interference.

July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Historically one of the market's stronger months, July typically sees a consistent upward trend across all major indexes (solid lines), often driven by optimism ahead of second-quarter earnings. Over the last 21 years (2005–2025), gains have built from a strong first trading day, with the NASDAQ leading at an average gain of just over 3%. While the S&P 500, DJIA, and Russell indexes also show robust positive trends, their momentum generally slows after mid-month.

Historically strong and earnings-driven, July favors broad index gains—especially the NASDAQ—
but midterm election years routinely trigger underperformance and small-cap volatility.

However, midterm election years tell a different story (dashed lines). Performance during these periods is notably weaker and more volatile: the DJIA and S&P 500 manage only modest gains, while small-caps (Russell 2000) historically struggle the most, often finishing July in negative territory. Ultimately, while seasonal trends favor equities, the midterm backdrop warns that volatility can emerge unexpectedly.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - Strong July Trends Could Face a Midterm-Year Test. 

July Seasonal Stock Market Performance (2000-2020).

 

 

 July is historically one of the year's strongest months, ranking third since 1950 for both the
DJIA and S&P 500 during midterm election years with average gains of 1.6% and 1.3%.

 

NASDAQ's 12-Day Midyear Rally—last 3 days of June through first 9 of July—
has gained an avg 2.5% since 1985, hitting in 32 of 41 years (78%).

 

Second Half 2026 Outlook.
 

In US midterm years (2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022), July delivers the broadest

market strength of the second half, with every major sector posting positive

average returns (S&P 500 +3.65%), led by Technology (+4.11%),

 Energy (+4.26%), and Consumer Discretionary (+4.10%).  

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 2, 2026) - June Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.  

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 22, 2026) - NASDAQ's 12-Day Midyear Rally from June 25 to July 14, 2026. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Jack Gillen (June 23, 2026) - Important Solar and Lunar Degrees for Trading US Stock Indices. 

David Hickson (June 15, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, Gold, BTC. 

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. 

Namzes (January 10, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500.

Important Solar and Lunar Degrees for Trading US Stock Indices | Jack Gillen

According to Jack Gillen in "AstroStats for the New York Stock Exchange" (2002), the transit of the Sun through 13°–22° Cancer is one of only two Sun-related market statistics that reached his highest reliability category, defined as the 70–100% accuracy group: 

"There are only two statistics related to the Sun falling into the group of the 70–100 percent accuracy. They were both activated in the United States chart on July 4, 1776, and the natal Sun is at 13-degrees of Cancer. On July 5th of every year the Sun transits 13-degrees of Cancer. This cycle has an orb of 13–22 degrees of Cancer, and the transit dates would be from July 7–15 each year. The price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be higher on the 15th than on the 7th..." 

Gillen associated this pattern with the natal chart of the United States, dated July 4, 1776, in which the Sun is positioned at 13° Cancer. Based on his research, the period from July 7 to July 15 each year—when the transiting Sun moves through 13°–22° Cancer—has historically shown a bullish tendency in the stock market. 

 

His rule states that the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on July 15 is expected to be higher than its closing value on July 7. Gillen reported an overall historical accuracy rate of 72.8% across the full sample he analyzed, while the period from 1987 to 2001 produced an even stronger accuracy rate of 86.6%. As a result, he regarded this as one of the most significant Sun-based market indicators in his work, interpreting it as a recurring mid-July bullish pattern linked to the activation of the US Sun degree. About other sensitive degrees of the Sun, he writes (1979):

"The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more or less active for each year, as the Sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year. So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. 

Jun 29 (Mon) 17:44 = SUN @ 8 CAN = 98 degrees = positive = should reach a low and turn up
Jul 04 (Sat) 23:37 = SUN @ 13 CAN = 103 degrees = negative = should reach a high and turn down
Jul 08 (Wed) 03:08 = SUN @ 16 CAN = 106 degrees = positive
Jul 10 (Fri) 05:28 = SUN @ 18 CAN = 108 degrees = negative
Jul 24 (Fri) 21:30 = SUN @ 2 LEO = 122 degrees = negative
Jul 29 (Wed) 01:59 = SUN @ 6 LEO = 126 degrees = positive
Aug 09 (Sun) 13:46 = SUN @ 17 LEO = 137 degrees = negative

[more HERE]

The market will always be influenced by the Sun pattern, and it will happen year after year. You will find from January to the last two weeks in July the market prices will be upwards, and in the latter part of the year, after the influence of Leo, the market will be down in price. This is the average trend that will always occur. This affects volume as well as price itself."

The solar cycle is a highly reliable annual cycle based on the Sun's direct, unvarying motion, allowing market turning points and seasonal patterns to be tracked to the exact day year after year. Acting as a market almanac of observed price behaviors, this cycle maps market responses to the Sun's passage through the zodiac signs, providing investors with a predictable annual road map. 

 

Key Turning Dates of the Solar Cycle vs. the DJIA, 1885-2015.

(Pesavento & Smoleny, 2015) 

 

Because the United States was founded on July 4, 1776, under the cardinal sign of Cancer, American financial markets are also exceptionally sensitive to planets transiting cardinal points or forming key harmonic angles to them. Consequently, the market consistently establishes major lows as the Sun enters the four cardinal signs: Aries, Cancer, Libra, and Capricorn (blue thick verticals in the chart above: March 20–21, June 20–21, September 22–23, December 21–22). Chronologically, the annual cycle of the Sun versus the DJIA unfolds through these cardinal alignments and their corresponding market seasonals:

■  January / Capricorn (Opposition): The Sun’s opposition in Capricorn marks an extreme bottom point, which immediately triggers a strong January Effect (bullish December 20 to January 7) rally.

■  March / Aries (Square): The Sun enters Aries, creating the first challenging square to the US natal sign, often coinciding with the volatile Ides of March (bearish February 2 to March 28).

■  April: As the Sun advances, market momentum shifts into the April Earnings Rally (bullish March 28 to April 16).

■  May: This upward momentum stalls, prompting the classic "Sell in May and Go Away" (bearish April 16 to June 26) defensive strategy.

■  June/July / Cancer (Conjunction): The Sun’s conjunction in Cancer creates a distinct market bottom that directly sets the stage for the subsequent Summer Rally (bullish June 26 to September 4).

■  October/November / Libra (Square): The Sun enters Libra, forming a second, highly disruptive square to the US sign; these combined October–November squares present the market’s greatest systemic challenges, historically triggering the Fall Crash Cycle (bearish September 4 to October 27) and major market meltdowns.

■  December: Following the autumn lows, the cycle concludes as the market recovers into the year-end Santa Claus Rally (bullish October 27 to December 8), resetting the annual pattern.

 Seasonal Dates of the Solar Cycle vs. the DJIA.

 

Moon from Virgo to Pisces = Go Long | Moon from Pisces to Virgo = Go Short

His lunar statistics were detailed primarily in "AstroStats for the New York Stock Exchange" (2002), with related discussion in the revised "The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange" (2009). He analyzed historical NYSE/DJIA data against Moon transits, assigning reliability percentages. Individual Moon signs rarely reach his high-confidence threshold (70–100% accuracy), but specific patterns and directional cycles do. 

"There is a Moon statistic that falls into the 70–100 percent group but is closer to the 70 percent group, and that’s the Moon’s transit from Virgo to Pisces. Therefore, if you are looking to go long with a stock it’s best to start during this period. [...] If you have a stock you want to short, your best chance would be from the sign of Pisces to Virgo." 

On average, the Moon spends 2.46 days transiting through each zodiac sign.

Times and Dates for New York (ET).

 

 Reference:

Jack Gillen (2002) - The Sun-Stats.  

Jack Gillen (2002) - Moon-Stats (2026 to 2034). 

Jack Gillen (2002) - Astro-Stats for the New York Stock Exchange (ISBN 9780967581491).  

Jack Gillen (1979) - The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 22, 2026) - NASDAQ's 12-Day Midyear Rally from June 25 to July 14, 2026.

¡¡ TPR (February 4, 2026) - 2026 US Stock Market Forecast Based on Jack Gillen's Principles. !!