The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks | Lars von Thienen

The weekly S&P 500 shows that the nominal 180-week cycle, currently at 177 weeks, is in an early topping stage. This long-awaited time cycle has been monitored since the end of 2023 and has been cited as a key driver for the upturn lasting into this window. Now that we have arrived at this point, we need to pay close attention to the shorter-term cycles and technical indicators.

Weekly S&P 500 with nominal 180 weeks / 41-Month Kitchin Cycle topping | October 23, 2024

Before moving to the daily cycle analysis, it is worth noting that the cyclic-tuned RSI indicator has reached the upper band, indicating a "bull exhaustion" mode. This condition can turn within days into a "bulls tired" and/or "bulls exit" state, signaling that we are primed for a longer-term reversal. The same weekly cycles situation can be observed on the NASDAQ.

NASDAQ weekly cycles | October 23, 2024

Let's now examine the daily cycles, starting with the S&P 500 model.

 » The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. «

 S&P 500 daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The main cycles are the 192-day and the harmonic 89-day trading cycles. The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. The cRSI indicator shows we are nearing the upper band, which could also signal a final year-end rally before both daily cycles align with the downward-trending weekly cycle noted earlier. A similar perspective can be observed in the Nasdaq daily data.

Nasdaq Composite daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The shorter-term daily cycles with lengths of 80 and 200 trading days on the Nasdaq model are rolling over now and will likely continue into the end of 2024. These cycles are also coming into alignment with the next long-term downward swing, which is in sync with the long-term cycles shown earlier.

It's worth noting that we're seeing a divergence forming, as the market experienced a clear topping pattern in June of this year: At that time, the composite model peaked while the cRSI was breaking down below the upper band, issuing a sell signal. The price never went back to achieve a higher high, and the cRSI is indicating an even bigger divergence between the price action and the signal line. The technical indicators shown below have been adjusted to the cycles detected and mentioned above. The highlighted red or green shaded areas indicate that the higher timeframe - here the weekly S&P 500 - is also taken into consideration. 

S&P 500 - cRSI cyclic indicator | October 23, 2024

The multi-timeframe cyclic technical indicator is showing a clear divergence between price and the signal. While the weekly chart confirms another overbought situation at the time the divergence signal emerges, this provides technical confirmation of a possible top in place. A similar technical condition can be observed on the NASDAQ.

 

Nasdaq Composite | October 23, 2024

Quoted from:
Lars von Thienen (October 23, 2024) - The next wave on the horizon for the US stock markets – it is time to prepare.

See also:
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.

Sergey Tarassov  (September 8, 2024) - Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025. 

Sergey Tarassov  (June 26, 2024) - 2024 DJIA vs 40 Month and 42 Month Cycles.

Edward R. Dewey (1971) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle in Stocks. 

 

  Carol S. Mull (1989) - The 3 1/3 - Year Kitchin Cycle.

 

Joseph Kitchin (1923) - Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors.

1986-2024 S&P 500 Index Analog Projection into Early December

On a day to day basis the analog between S&P 500 closing prices of 1986 and 2024 had a 95% positive correlation over the past 180 trading days, which is the period since the beginning of 2024. Of course, only time will tell whether this correlation continues. With that in mind, the analog projects the upcoming swing highs and lows for the month of October to be more or less in line with Jeff Hirsch's average seasonal chart for October in election years: From the latest all-time high of September 26, the next swing low is projected to occur on October 9 (Wed), followed by a high on October 18 (Fri), and a potentially lower low around October 23-25 (Wed-Fri). Then a rally is expected to occur into November 29 (Fri). Note that in this context, direction is more important than price levels. The average S&P 500 return during October was slightly positive between 1950 and 2023, with 45 up years and 29 down years, and an average return of 0.75%.

Seth Golden is extremely optimistic about 2025: "From September 2023 to September 2024, the S&P 500 has been up greater than 30%. Historically, when the S&P 500 >25% over the trailing 12 months or more into a rate cut, stocks have NEVER been lower a year later and up close to +20% on average. There is no soft landing if there is no landing at all in 2025, and by all accounts the setup is clear!"  

 

A potential fly in the ointment for all of the above bullish outlook is Sergey Tarassov's long-term cycle analysis. He suggested that the 41-month Kitchin Cycle in US stocks would peak between June and October 2024, and be followed by a decline into December 2025-January 2026.  

 

That said, from a narrower medium-term Hurst cycle perspective, August 5 marked the low of a 40-week cycle. The market is now trending upward toward the next 40 week cycle's peak, and the last quarter of 2024 may very well conclude with new all-time highs.

Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025 | Sergey Tarassov

 » DJIA correction begun, and the 41 Month Kitchin Cycle suggests a decline until the end of 2025. «  
 —  Sergey Tarassov, August 5, 2024.

 

» Multiyear High in the DJIA between June and October 2024, i.e. sometime
between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle.  «    
 —  Sergey Tarassov, June 25, 2024.

Reference:
Sergey Tarassov (August 5, 2024) - Tune Up 41 Month Kitchin Cycle for DJIA. (video)
Sergey Tarassov (June 25, 2024) - Review of Forecasts for DJIA, Gold, Bitcoin, IOC and Mexican Peso. (video)

 2024 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table: » Major Panic - CRASH! «

 

Panic Cycles Week July 15 - 19 & Week September 9 - 13.

—  Martin Armstrong, June 14, 2024.

 

2024 DJIA Compared to 40-Month and 42-Month Cycles | Sergey Tarassov

Multiyear High in the DJIA between now and October 2024, i.e. sometime 

between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle (August 2024).

 

Reference:

 Sergey Tarassov (June 25, 2024) - Review of Forecasts for DJIA, Gold, Bitcoin, IOC and Mexican Peso. (video)

Sergey Tarassov (October 14, 2022) - 40 Month and 42 Month Kitchin Economical Cycles - Case Study. o)

S&P 500 Cycles - Top May 25th [+/-] & Correction into Mid-June | Martin Biber

The medium-term cycle (orange) shows a top around the 25th of May [+/-]. The short-term cycle is topping and has another down-up move into the late May cycle top. After that, we should expect a two to five-week setback before a new uptrend starts.

 

 

[My approach only needs a few daily data points to adjust to a new situation.]

Quoted from:
Martin Biber (May 16, 2024) - S&P 500 Cycles - Short-Term Correction.

 

Geocentric Bradley Barometer │ Turning Points in 2024

2023 Nov 13 (Mon) = High
2023 Dec 17 (Sun) = Low
2023 Dec 22 (Fri) = High
2024 Jan 04 (Thu) = Low
2024 Jan 13 (Sat) = High
2024 Jan 22 (Mon) = Low
2024 Jan 29 (Mon) = High
2024 Feb 09 (Fri) = Low
2024 Feb 13 (Tue) = High
2024 Feb 25 (Sun) = Low
2024 May 26 (Sun) = High
2024 Jun 11 (Tue) = Low
2024 Jun 29 (Sat) = High
2024 Aug 19 (Mon) = Low
2024 Aug 29 (Thu) = High
2024 Sep 07 (Sat) = Low
2024 Sep 14 (Sat) = High
2024 Sep 19 (Thu) = Low
2024 Sep 27 (Fri) = High
2024 Oct 01 (Tue) = Low
2024 Oct 05 (Sat) = High
2024 Oct 27 (Sun) = Low
2024 Nov 02 (Sat) = High
2024 Nov 13 (Wed) = Low
2024 Nov 25 (Mon) = High
2024 Dec 08 (Sun) = Low
2024 Dec 18 (Wed) = High
2024 Dec 26 (Thu) = Low

[ calculated and charted for New York City (EST / EDT) with Timing Solution ]

The very well‐known financial astrology indicator known as the Bradley Barometer [or Bradley Siderograph] was created by Donald Bradley in 1947. The theory was that what is happening up in the sky affects human behavior on earth, so Bradley created a barometer that was a combination of transits. By assigning positive values to positive transits and negative values to negative transits he created a weighted net sum oscillator graph. The Bradley also includes the declination of planets. The higher in the sky that a planet appears above the horizon, the more positive the value. The lower in the sky that a planet appears below the horizon, the more negative the value. This Bradley Barometer graph correlated well to the markets even though there was no known physical correlation. The Bradley does very well in forecasting the headwinds or tailwinds of long‐term market moves that can occur over many months […] In recent years, it has shown quite a number of failures. This may be due to a variety of factors. If the Bradley Barometer measures the natural organic flow of the market, then there are certainly external artificial influences that can diminish its effectiveness. Some of these factors may include high‐frequency trading and/or government interference through central bank stimulus. Artificial inflation will cause a market to rise regardless of transits. The market will still oscillate, but with an upward bias. Another important angle to consider about the Bradley is that it designed to be taken in the context of what is happening in the market. The Bradley Barometer is an oscillator. We all know that the market does not oscillate back and forth all the time.

Over the past century, the market has trended higher. However, in between, there are cyclical bull markets and bear markets and sometimes there are consolidation periods. Everything forecast must be taken in its relative context to current market conditions. In a bull market, the down periods in the Bradley may simply mark sideways consolidation periods. It is useful to think of negative planetary transits in the face of a bull market as being nothing more than headwinds that are just a pause in the uptrend. It also follows that in a bull market the periods of the Bradley may mark the largest bull runs. In bear markets, the positive runs in the Bradley model serve as just pauses in the selling. The negative drops in the Bradley mark periods of intense selling in the market. In neutral markets, the Bradley tends to mirror market movement like an oscillator. nevertheless, the Bradley is a very popular model to this day, and many financial astrologers still use it as a backbone to get an overall picture of what the market is doing or what it made do in the future.

Quoted from:
Larry Pesavento & Shane Smoleny (2015) - A Trader’s Guide To Financial Astrology.

 

ooo0ooo

 

Also consider:

New Moons typically mark beginnings of cycles, and Full Moons mark completions. 

In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are tops. 

In bear markets, New Moons are tops, and Full Moons are bottoms. 

More often than not, stocks will rise from around the 7th to around the 14th calendar day of a month, 

fall from the 14th to the 20th, and rise from the 20th to the 25th.

Major Red News Releases (NFP, CPI, PPI, PMI, FOMC etc.) and Options Expiration Dates (especially Quad and Triple Witching)

may delay or cancel typical cyclical market behavior and astro signals.

S&P 500 Cycles Forecast | Sergey Ivanov

S&P 500 / ES Major High = ± Sep 08-11, 2023 (Fri-Mon)

 

 

The 2nd half of this week [Sep 04-08] is going to be bullish for the index. Talking about the most probable date for expected (at daily time frame) bearish turn we may rely on the Moon cycle at M30 chart. If today's drop is considerable then a local top is was already set. The next date for local high will be reached by the end of Friday [Sep 08] or the very beginning of the next Monday [Sep 11].

Reference:
Sergey Ivanov (Sep 02, Sep 04 & Sep 05, 2023) - Forecasts calculated with Timing Solution software; published on Telegram.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Self-Similarity Charts for 2023 | Sergey Ivanov

1938 vs 2023

Highest Similarity Ratio between 1963 and 2023 - Projected Low of the Year is February 22 (Wed)

1966 vs 2023

1973 vs 2023

1982 vs 2023

2003 vs 2023

2009 vs 2023

Source:

Sergey Ivanov (Jan 24, 2023) via his free Timing Solution Forecasts Telegram Channel. 

See also:

Sergey Tarassov (2003) - Back Testing of Similarity Module.

Sergey Tarassov - Timing Solution Software.

Sergey Tarassov - Timing Solution Community Group.

Bearish Forecast for US Stocks Indexes | Sergey Ivanov

Sergey Ivanov (Nov 30, 2022) - We have two kind of very effective projection lines for the indexes: Self-Similarity vs 2008 year and Fixed Cycles Composite Line. As you can see they suggest an extreme bearish scenario for the next 1.5 months. If it already started or we have some additional expected bullish bounces is answered by temporal cycles projection lines. 

 

 

Source:
Sergey Ivanov (Nov 30, 2022) via his free Timing Solution Forecasts Telegram Channel  

See also:

Sergey Tarassov - Timing Solution Software

Sergey Tarassov - Timing Solution Community Group

Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War | Max Tension in March 2022

 

André Barbault's Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War is comprised of the degree distances of all planets between Jupiter and Pluto. When the graph is at its low point, there are one or more conjunctions between any planets from Jupiter to Pluto. Conjunctions tend to focus on turbulence. When the graph ascends, it is telling that we are on the way to planetary opposition within any two of the five planets involved. The low points reflect conditions of international, economic and social tension, conflict and war. Peaks typically forecast the opposite. Barbault's Index will print the the lowest point of the cyclical index in this entire 21st century by mid March 2022 .

 

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution. More on Barbault's Cyclic Index Here

SPX vs Turbo Cycle Projection

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution

SPX 2015 vs SPX 1987

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

SPX 2015 vs SPX 2011

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

DJIA 2015 vs DJIA 2008

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution. For the methodology see HERE

DJIA 2015 vs DJIA 1885

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution. For the methodology see HERE

Sergey Tarassov - Annual and Moon based Forecast for the SPX 2015-2016

Credits: Sergey Tarassov

Sergey Tarassov - [...] Moon cycles are an enigma for me. The cycle period is just one month; it makes this cycle very appealing for a swing trader. 

I have spent a lot of time trying to find an appropriate model for Moon cycles (for example, applying Walk Forward Analysis module in Composite module). 

This approach looks very promissing; at least it gives stable results (Walk Forward Analysis does not)."

[...] Sometimes cyclical patterns based on the Moon cycle appear (Moon phases, Moon tropical and Moon Draconic cycles), live for some time and then disappear. It looks like the typical time of the existence of this pattern is one year, may be less. It is difficult to say  what mechanism lies behind this phenomenon. Maybe some mass psychology patterns appear, make resonance with some Moon cycle, and this resonance gives to this pattern an energy to exist for some period of time." (HERE)

SPX vs Mercury Stationary Direct

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

HERE

SPX vs Jupiter 120° Uranus

June 22 (Mon) = Jupiter Trine Uranus (geocentric).
Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

S&P 500 vs Planet’s Declinations out of Bounds

 Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

Declinations of Mercury, Venus, and Mars exceeding the Sun's maximum declination (± 23.27 degrees) frequently correlate with market turns.

SPX vs Conjunctions of EAR-MER-VEN-MAR (heliocentric)

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

HERE