S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low | Namzes

The big picture remains unchanged: I still expect a bear market, with a buyable 3.5-year Hurst cycle low in Q3 2026. The 20-week cycle low arrived on schedule—just one day after the ideal March 27 (Fri) window outlined in my 2026 forecast.

 Chart 1: The new 20-week cycle could run higher into late May. The current 40-day cycle is now about halfway through.

I didn’t expect new all-time highs—my plan was for a rejection at the golden pocket retracement. Instead, a mix of CTA driven mechanical buying and Trump playing the market like a violin produced the blow-off top I’d anticipated back in February. The market always finds a way to humble you. 

 

The current 40-day cycle is roughly halfway complete (Chart 1). Next week should clarify whether the rally has further upside or is topping out. In my base bear case, April 17 was flagged as a potential turning point, but so far there are no signs of buying pressure slowing. Options expiration (OPEX) often serves as a pivot—either on the day itself or shortly after.

 
From a Hurst cycle perspective, the S&P 500 may still have several percent of upside left. That said, I’m not chasing it. As in February, I’ve stepped aside—risk/reward isn’t compelling for my multi-month holding framework, especially with weekend headline risk in play.

Timing-wise, the next 40-day low is due around May 7 (Thu). That should provide clearer insight into structure—namely the depth of the pullback and the strength of the rebound into late May (Chart 2). This sequence would then feed into a larger decline toward a higher-degree summer low. Leading indicators continue to point to a more meaningful downside move in the weeks ahead, so I remain heavily in cash.

  

 Chart 2: Options expiration (OPEX) often acts as a pivot, either on the day itself or a few days after. 

Next 40-day low due around May 7 (Thu), followed by a rebound into late May.

 

Short-term models have triggered a buy signal. If you’re leaning bullish, the new 20-week cycle could extend into late May, including a typical retest of the May 40-day low. However, given the negative pressure from the dominant 3.5-year cycle, my base case is that this rally is a false breakout—likely forming another divergent top and unlikely to persist beyond April.

It’s extremely rare for a 40-week cycle (top panel, Chart 3) to undercut its prior low and still go on to make new highs. In S&P 500 history, I could identify only one comparable instance. The usual structure in such cases is an M-shaped pattern with a clear bearish bias, as highlighted by the arrows.

 

Chart 3: It’s rare for a 40-week cycle to undercut its low and still go on to make a new high.

Bottom panel shows 20-week cycle, expected to synchronize with the 40-week cycle around July. 

That’s exactly how I expected the current 20-week cycle to unfold. That said, we now need price action to confirm emerging bearish signals. A bullishly configured cycle could still extend into June. While models have triggered a buy signal, participation remains narrow and volume is light. In my view, a downside resolution over the next few weeks remains the highest-probability outcome—but it still requires confirmation. Cycles define the setup; price action and models provide the trigger. The bottom panel shows the 20-week cycle, which I expect to synchronize with the 40-week cycle around July.

To illustrate what typically happens after a 20-week cycle low when the 40-week cycle has already failed, we can look back at Q1 2022 (Chart 4). In January of that year, the price made a lower low, confirming that the 40-week cycle had failed and signaling the start of a larger-degree correction.

 

Chart 4: Typical outcome after a 20-week low when the 40-week cycle has already failed.

 

This was followed by a series of bounces that retraced some of the decline but failed to make new highs. The market then rolled over and established new lows. This pattern is typical behavior roughly 99% of the time.That’s why I’ll be watching closely to see whether the current breakout turns out to be a deviation that ultimately resolves to the downside over the next few weeks, especially with the longer 3.5-year cycle exerting downward pressure.

I'm watching for a potential Wyckoff upthrust after distribution (UTAD) to play out over the next few weeks (Chart 5). For the bulls, it's critical to keep any pullbacks shallow and hold above the 2026 opening price at SPY 685.71, as well as above the overall consolidation range. 

 

Chart 5: Watching for a potential Wyckoff UTAD to unfold in the coming weeks.

Doing so will help avoid the setup looking like a classic false breakout. I've also overlaid the 2022 bear market in yellow for reference, in case the bearish thesis unfolds and we see a similar structure develop.

Reference:
Namzes (April 17, 2025) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact – Q3 3.5-Year Cycle Low.

See also:
Namzes (January 10, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500. 
Namzes (January 1, 2026) - 2026 US Stock Market Forecast: 25% Bear Market and Recovery.

Krasi (April 19, 2026) - This is a 4-year cycle high—don’t get too excited.

David Hickson (April 7, 2026) - Twenty-Week Cycle Trough Or Greater? (video)

S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low | Branimir Vojcic

The S&P 500 cycle composite of the dominant 339, 185, 124, and 79-day cycles forecasts a reversal by late March. This move is expected to manifest as a "dead cat bounce," peaking near 6,500 in late May before a projected decline into October.

 

 

Bill Sarubbi notes that post-OPEX weeks in March are traditionally bearish, projecting a low for the S&P 500 and US stocks between March 26 (Thu) and April 7 (Tue).

 

Sarubbi's S&P 500 cycle composite forecast for 2026 started at a January peak, followed by a choppy decline through June, punctuated by a brief April recovery. After a late-summer bounce, the market hits its annual low in late September/early October. The year concludes with a sharp rally through December, carrying bullish momentum into 2027. 

 

Reference:

Branimir Vojcic (March 22, 2026) - S&P 500 Cycles Update.

Bill Sarubbi (March 20, 2026) - Post-OPEX weeks in March.

 

The best timed trade of 2026.

Crude Oil Long-Term Cycles Signal 2026 and 2028 Peaks Near $225–235

Branimir Vojcic identifies four dominant weekly cycles (103, 144, 181, and 289 weeks) in crude oil futures (CL), projecting major peaks in October 2026 and June 2028, and troughs in July 2027 and October 2029 aligning with Martin Armstrong’s warning of prices surging into 2028 due to geopolitical risks. 

 

The dominant 174 day cycle on the daily CL chart shows a cycle trough at the end of June.

 

 Four dominant weekly cycles indicate CL peaks in October 2026

and June 2028, with troughs expected in July 2027 and October 2029.

 

 

Yearly timing arrays for NY Crude Oil Futures.

Martin Armstrong’s cycle-based forecast for NY crude oil futures shows multiple volatility and panic cycle convergences in 2028 that could drive prices to $200–240 per barrel from current levels around $90. Drawing from his Socrates AI and Economic Confidence Model, which identify 8.6-year global turning points, Armstrong's timing array chart above overlays empirical, long-term, and direction-change cycles to pinpoint heightened risk periods for oil disruptions. 

 

» Wars rarely end on political will alone, and this conflict is constrained by a dense web
of strategic, economic and security pressures that neither side can easily escape. «

Socrates Update: Oil $225 to $235 into 2028.

 

Amid the ongoing US–Israeli war with Iran, which has already reduced regional output by over 6 million barrels per day and spiked prices by 9%, Armstrong’s prediction aligns with analysts’ upward revisions for sustained supply risks.

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (March 22, 2026) - Crude Oil (CL) Long-Term Cycles.
Martin Armstrong (March 22, 2026) - Yearly Timing Arrays for NY Crude Oil Futures.

S&P 500 Forecast for March 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino

Following a brief correction through March 3 (Tue), the forecast projects a rally toward a peak around March 9 (Mon). This high is expected to be followed by a decline into March 16 (Mon), a rally leading into March 27 (Fri), and subsequent weakness heading into the end of the month.

 

March 3 (Tue) Low, March 9 (Mon) High, 

March 16 (Mon) Low, March 27 (Fri) High.

 

This forecast focuses on directional timing and is not scaled for price.

 

Reference:

Nicholas D. Savino (March 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for March 2026.   

[check for updates] 

 

S&P 500, NASDAQ, DJIA, and Russell 2000 (daily bars) and 20-week cycle.

 

S&P 500 (daily bars) vs 22-year and 60-year cycles.

 
See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 25, 2026) - February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

TPR (February 22, 2026) - S&P 500 Hurst Analysis: Projection into Mid-March 20-Week Cycle Low. 

Larry Williams (February 19, 2026) - 2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa.

Larry Williams (1998) - The Oops! Reversal Setup.

VIX Cycles: Forecasting Volatility Peaks Through 2032 | Branimir Vojcic

Seasonality within the Standard & Poor’s 500 Volatility Index (VIX) indicates that volatility typically rises toward the spring, declines during the summer months, and ascends once more into October (see chart below). 

 

Vix Seasonality.

This cyclical behavior usually runs inverse to the stock market. Crucially, this 6-month cycle aligns almost perfectly with the classic VIX seasonal pattern, reinforcing the likelihood of the next move. Chart 1 illustrates the six-month cycle that dominates the daily timeframe, aligning closely with established VIX seasonality patterns.

Chart 1: VIX - 6-Month Cycle.

Shifting our focus to longer-duration significant cycles, we examine the two-year and 3.5-year cycles (Chart 2). The latter is formally recognized as the Kitchin cycle and is observable across numerous financial markets. Although these two powerful cycles are frequently out of phase, they generally succeed in capturing significant spikes within the VIX. By combining them (Chart 3), we yield a composite cycle signal; we observe that these two cycles capture the majority of the VIX's historical movements, notwithstanding a notable failure in 2005.

 

Chart 2: VIX - 2-Year and 3.5-Year Cycles.

 

Chart 3: VIX - Composite of 2-Year and 3.5-Year Cycles.

Naturally, various other cycles—both of shorter and longer durations—simultaneously influence price action. On the monthly VIX chart, the six-year and ten-year cycles are the dominant forces, beautifully capturing multi-year fluctuations (Chart 4). It is important to note that both of these cycles reached troughs in 2005, which explains why the shorter-term cycles were unable to produce a volatility spike during that period. 

 Chart 4: VIX - 6-Year and 10-Year Cycles.

 

The integration of these two cycles further underscores their critical importance for long-term VIX trajectories. Currently, the composite cycle signal forecasts a multi-year cyclical peak in 2032, a period which may correspond to a significant low in the stock market. Finally, by incorporating the two-year and 3.5-year cycles, we add essential granularity to the composite of these very long-term cycles (Chart 5).
 

Chart 5: VIX - Composite of 6-Year and 10-Year Cycles.

 

The next significant cycle peak and trough are estimated to occur in November of 2026 and throughout 2027, respectively. Following that inflection point, the VIX will generally maintain an upside bias toward 2032. Given that stock market movements are typically inversely correlated with those of the VIX, does this imply that the equity market will decline through October 2026, rally in 2027, and subsequently enter a secular bear market until the early 2030s?

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (February 16, 2026) - What Message is Volatility (VIX) Sending? Part 1 & Part 2. (videos)

 

See also:

Dylan O'Neill (March 1, 2026) - VIX: Wall Street's Exact Formula to Measure Fear In the Markets. (video)

2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa | Larry Williams

Crude Oil

Larry Williams identifies a setup for potential decline, noting that commercials (via Commitments of Traders (COT) Report red line in the chart below) have ceased aggressive buying and are exiting the market, with the line declining after marking a recent bottom. 

 

The public (green line) has become heavy buyers, signaling vulnerability. His proprietary valuation indicator (gold line, based on Crude-Gold Ratio) shows overvaluation, similar to prior pullbacks. As a conditional trader, he views this as a setup but requires trend change confirmation. 

 

 Downward setup via overvaluation and commercial selling; imminent cyclical

downturn, low in March/June needing trend confirmation for shorts.

 

Cyclically (weekly charts), a downturn is imminent, with a low expected in about three months (around March or June), historically good for longs. He advises watching for sell signals in energy markets, emphasizing cycles for bias and timing.

Natural Gas

Williams was seeking a short-term buy opportunity but canceled orders due to lack of upward movement today, anticipating a possible bounce. He stresses evaluating the COT report to determine if commercials or the public are buying, cross-referenced with open interest for directional insight. While acknowledging a seasonal pattern, he deems it less significant than current buyer/seller dynamics via the COT.

Gold

Williams admits a prior bad call, expecting a cyclical high aligned with Bitcoin's peak, but Gold held firm. Currently, commercials (COT red line) are unusually buying the decline at high levels, a position not typical and reminiscent of past buy opportunities. He notes recent shorts in Silver and Copper have shifted.

 

Gold bullish from commercial decline-buys and March cycles; 

Silver similar with rally soon, upside late Feb/March on trend change.

 

Cyclically, short-term (red) and longer-term (blue) cycles converge in March, establishing a substantive buy point without implying a drop to chart lows. This timeframe warrants bullish attention, pending trend change.

Silver

Williams observes that Silver exhibits strong similarities to Gold, historically regarded as the "poor man's gold" but now akin to the "expensive man's gold." It follows a comparable cyclical pattern, indicating the onset of a rally within the ensuing couple of weeks from the time of discussion. Aligning with his year-end forecast, he anticipated initial downward pressure, followed by an upward shift around late February or early March. He emphasizes restraint in entry, requiring confirmation of an upside trend change—such as a trend line breakout or moving average signal—within that timeframe to qualify the trade.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Disparity in Advance/Decline, and Why Dow is Stronger

Williams affirms a bull market persisting through 2025 into mid-2027, dismissing pessimists based on repeated past errors. The advance-decline line (net cumulative advances vs. declines) is at new highs while stocks are not—an anomaly he has rarely seen, historically followed by higher prices, providing a fundamental bullish rationale. 

 

 

Bull to mid-2027 via advance-decline highs; Dow stronger than

S&P on value focus, mid-March cyclical buy/rally.

Comparing charts below: Dow Jones futures show a higher low and greater strength than S&P E-minis, attributed to fewer "hot stocks" like the Magnificent Seven in the Dow, which suffered hits. 

 

The Dow better represents quality and value, with funds shifting there for protection over speculation. As a trader, Williams is long Dow contracts, not S&P, due to Dow's outperformance. 

Cocoa

Williams sees a buy setup, though not yet long, awaiting trend change. Commercials (top pane red line) are adding positions amid declining total open interest (black line)—indicating others exit, a rare bullish "bubble up." Valuation (gold line, Cocoa-Gold Ratio) shows undervaluation, contrasting prior overvalued tops. 

 

 

Rally from commercial "bubble up" buys and undervaluation; 

short-term immediate, major in June/July with trend entry patience.

 

Cyclically, short-term (red) suggests immediate rally start; longer-term (blue) aligns with short-term around June/July for ideal entry and bigger move.

 

Reference:
NinjaTrader Live (February 18, 2026) - 2026 Market Outlook with Larry Williams. (video)
 

See also:

Foundation for the Study of Cycles (February 17, 2026) - Larry Williams on Inflation and the Coming Bear Market. (video) 

Larry Wiliams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities.

Namzes (February 18, 2026) - 2026 Crude Oil Projection.
Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - 2025-2027 Oil Price Decline Linked to Solar Cycle Activity.

Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - Strong Inverse Correlation between Ap Index and Gold Price.

Revised February S&P 500 Forecast | Nicholas D. Savino

Nicholas Savino has revised his February 2026 S&P 500 forecast, inverting the original cycle projection (left chart above). While February 5 (Thu) was previously slated as a peak, recent price action now points toward a low. From this pivot, a rally to a new all-time-high is expected to unfold, extending through February 17 (Tue), followed by choppy, sideways price action through month-end (right chart above).

Update, February 9, 2026.

 

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 27, 2026) - February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Namzes (January 5, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500.

2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500 | Namzes

Following the November 21 (Fri) 40-week cycle low and the December 19 (Fri) 40-day cycle higher-low confirmation, the S&P 500 is now in a new 40-week cycle uptrend. Though the next 40-day cycle pullback is expected in late January, the rising 20-week cycle should drive the S&P 500 higher toward around the February 20 (Fri) option expiration.

Q1 rally, mid-year correction, July and October windows for yearly low, rally in Q4. 

 
Building on prior calls like the accurate November 2025 low, the chart above illustrates July 2026 as an ideal nested low for multiple cycles (20-week, 40-week, possibly 18-month and 3.5-year or 42-month).

Reference:
Namzes (January 5, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500.

 

 [ Note: A November 21, 2025, 40-week cycle low would render prior TPR Hurst cycle analyses

and longer-term phasing (e.g., HERE, HERE, and HERE) largely incorrect and obsolete. ]

 

Midterm Years, January 3, 2026.

  

» The 21 November low was the 40-week trough. « 
Christopher Grafton, January 9, 2026.

See also:

Namzes (January 10, 2026) - VIX Cycles.

Namzes (December 31, 2026) - US Stock Market Forecast: 25% Bear Market and Recovery.

2026 Gold Forecast | Namzes

Back in February 2024, our main call was to watch for Gold to break the 2,080–2,100 level, which would trigger a trend move; it has since moved up over 2x. Short-term moves are hard to call and cycles are not stable, so I focus on mini-trend moves where I can hold a position for several months. We are now approaching a potential multi-month peak, which will be followed by a sizable pullback.

 

 Updates to the 2025 Gold Forecast.

The main idea for 2026 is a peak in Q1 around February, followed by a 20%+ decline toward mid-summer in July and a subsequent resumption of the bull market. 

  

 Peak in February. 20%+ decline through July. Bull market resumption.

 

In the chart above the composite projection is shown in orange, with seasonality displayed in the middle. The 18-month cycle in the bottom panel is due for a low between April and August; while this long cycle has wide dispersion, the best guess is that an initial low occurs in April with the final low in July. 

 

 

 

I found the three most similar cycles and displayed them in the chart above with a composite line in pink. While this is a small sample size, it serves as a decent reference point.

 

Reference:

Namzes (January 8, 2026) - 2026 Gold Forecast.

Gold Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1975-2024).

See also:

Namzes (January 11, 2025) - 2025 Gold Forecast. 

Namzes (December 31, 2025) - 2026 US Stock Market Forecast: 25% Bear Market and Recovery.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns. 

2026 US Stock Market Forecast: 25% Bear Market and Recovery | Namzes

My base case for 2026 is a sharp but ultimately corrective bear market—approximately a 25% drawdown—followed by a meaningful recovery into year-end. Structurally, I expect a classic sequence: an early-year head fake, a multi-month liquidation phase, and a strong fourth-quarter rally.

 

 2026 Forecast for the S&P 500 (green line):

■ Rally into ~Feb 17 toward 7,250–7,400; topping risk, minor low ~Mar 27.
■ Acceptance below 6,532 confirms top; 6,144 next, then risk to low-5,000s.
■ Cycle lows: Jul 24 (major low, sharp rally) and Oct 27 (3.5Y trough, cleaner divergent entry).
■ Downside ~5,200 (4,600–4,800 extreme), followed by Q4 rally to ~5,950.

 

■ The bullish advance should extend into mid-February, with the S&P 500 potentially pushing into the 7,250–7,400 zone. Up to approximately February 17, the trend should remain constructive, but I will be watching closely for topping signals and negative divergences as that window approaches. A minor corrective low is likely around March 27.

■ The first serious warning that the market has topped will be acceptance below 6,532. If that level gives way, the next downside objective is 6,144. A sustained break below 6,144 materially increases the probability of a deeper liquidation that carries the index into the low-5,000s.

■ I am focused on two potential windows for a major cycle low: July 24 and October 27, the latter aligning with a projected 3.5-year cycle trough. My expectation is that July produces an important low, followed by a sharp rally. However, the more attractive risk-adjusted opportunity may come in October, where a lower low accompanied by positive divergence would offer a cleaner and more durable entry.

■ In terms of price targets, my central downside objective is near 5,200. In an extreme scenario, the lower bound of the range would be 4,600–4,800, while the upper bound of the bear-market low region sits around 5,400–5,600. From there, I expect a powerful fourth-quarter rally, with a year-end target near 5,950.

From a longer-term perspective, the decennial pattern also supports this roadmap (see chart below). Year six of the cycle is historically choppier. Across 23 prior observations, the average profile shows a push higher into February, followed by a volatile and corrective phase, and ultimately a year-end rally. As noted in my 2025 forecast, year five is typically the strongest year of the cycle; even after the spring 2025 crash, the market recovered impressively, consistent with that tendency.

 

 Dow Jones (monthly candles), 2023-2027.

» In my 2025 forecast, I noted that year five is typically the strongest year in the decennial cycle, and that even

after the spring crash the market recovered impressively. Year six, by contrast, is usually much choppier. «

  Dow Jones (daily bars), 2025-2027.

» The de-trended decennial pattern, shown in grey with matching years in orange, 

conveys the same structure: early advance, decline, consolidation, and a year-end rally. «

 

The same decennial pattern, shown on a de-trended basis above, reinforces this view. In the comparative analysis, the de-trended data appear in grey, with selected analog years highlighted in orange. The message is consistent across both views: an early advance, a meaningful decline, extended choppiness, and a decisive rally into year end. 

 

Dow Jones historical study looking for similar periods: 1966 (green) is best overall fit.

 

 Dow Jones composite (magenta) of a dozen best matching years.

 

2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500: Following the November 21 (Fri) 40-week cycle low and the December 19 (Fri) 40-day cycle higher-low confirmation, the S&P 500 is now in a new 40-week cycle uptrend. Though a 40-day cycle pullback is expected in late January, the rising 20-week cycle should drive the S&P 500 higher toward around the February 20 (Fri) option expiration.

Q1 rally, mid-year correction, July and October windows for yearly low, rally in Q4.  

 

Building on prior calls like the accurate November 2025 low, the chart above illustrates July 2026 as an ideal nested low for multiple cycles (20-week, 40-week, possibly 18-month and 3.5-year or 42-month).

 

Reference:

Namzes (December 31, 2025) - 2026 Forecast: 25% Bear Market and Recovery. 

[Additional commentary and other asset forecasts will follow in the thread over the coming weeks.] 

 

Bitcoin: 2025 largely played out in a typical 4Y cycle way (top panel). Bottom panel is Hurst cycles projection from Dec 2024. April was 18M low; Nov - 40W low. I expect a push higher early in 2026 before cycle rolls over and we go towards 4 year cycle low.

The 2026 Dollar Playbook.

The 2026 Euro Playbook.

See also:

Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy. 

TPR (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Stock Indices. 

Larry Wiliams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities.