November Post-Election Year Seasonality: Best Month of the Year | Jeff Hirsch

November is typically a bullish month, with twelve bullish days based on the S&P 500. This includes a streak of six consecutive bullish days starting on the first trading day (Nov 3 (Mon)). Although historically a bullish month, November does have its weak points.

November Performance of US Stock Indices: Last 21-Years (2004-2024) and Post-Election Years (1950-2021).

The DJIA and Russell 2000 tend to exhibit the greatest strength at the beginning and end of the month. The Russell 2000, in particular, is notably bearish on its 12th trading day (Nov 18 (Tue)); the small-cap benchmark has risen just eleven times in the past 41 years (since 1984). On this day, the Russell 2000's average decline is 0.41%.

Recent weakness around Thanksgiving (Nov 27 (Thu)) has shifted the strength of the DJIA and S&P 500 to align more closely with that of the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the majority of bullish days occurring at the start and end of the month. The best way to trade around Thanksgiving is to go long on any weakness before the holiday and exit into strength just before or after.
 

Reference: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 30, 2025) - November Best Month of the Year for DJIA & S&P 500.

 

Post-Election Year most bullish in 4-Year Presidential Cycle since 1985.

 

S&P 500 Average Daily Performance and Hit Rate (%) (1928-2024). 

 

S&P 500 Seasonailty First and Last Half of each Month (1928-2024). 

 

S&P 500: We are now in the final phase of this rally. 

 

SPX ES-minis: Down (= 80D peak?).

  

 Gold: 80-day cycle trough zone. Up Reversal?

 

Bitcoin: Heading towards the next 80-day cycle trough. Down.

 

See also:

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

Gold and Silver: Medium- and Long-Term Cycles | Branimir Vojcic

Everyone’s talking about Gold and Silver. They have had stellar moves, but which one is really set to shine next? 

Gold is about to take the lead over Silver in the coming 3 months, based on the powerful 36-week cycle. But here’s the catch: focusing on just one cycle can sometimes leave you blindsided. Multiple cycles sometimes tell a different story.

Gold may be forming a blow-off top, but it still holds some near-term potential. Long-term Hurst cycle analysis predicts a multi-year cycle trough around 2030.

Silver — often referred to as "poor man's gold" — has been on the rise, but long-term Hurst cycles suggest a multi-year trough in late 2029, give or take.

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (October 4, 2025) - Everyone’s talking about Gold and Silver.

Branimir Vojcic (September 24, 2025) - Gold and Silver Cycles: Exploring Near-Term Potential and Long-Term Troughs. (video)

40-Week Cycle Blow-Off Top Target for the S&P 500 | Branimir Vojcic

The chart below shows 20-week and 40-week cycle price projections for  S&P 500. Getting to the 7,200 area +/- may satisfy both targets. The black trendline resistance will get into the 40-week cycle target range late this year.

40-Week Cycle Blow-Off Top Target for the S&P 500 (daily bars) 7,200 +/-.

 

Cycle price projections are fully satisfied about 70% of the time. The probability of approaching them without fully satisfying them is considerably higher. However, this is not the time to be complacent as the stock market is most overvalued in more than 100 years.

Nasdaq-100 Index (weekly bars) - Long-Term Elliott Wave Count, and Blow-Off Top Targets.

 

The green rectangles depict blowoff top targets for Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) for 20-week and 40-week cycles. The black count is preferred in which Primary wave 5, circle-5, will take the form of an ending diagonal, ideally into the green targets. The blue count is an alternative ending diagonal. In this count, NDX is now completing wave B of (4) with C expected in 2026 and (5) in late 2027 or early 2028.

The completion of circle-5 this year or in 2027/28 will mark the top of cycle degree wave V and super-cycle degree (III). Super-cycle (IV) can take about 15-20 years. Cycle a is expected in the early 2030s, then a bounce in cycle b, and then cycle c of (IV) in about mid-2040s. A typical retracement for (IV) is in the range of IV, i.e., the fourth wave of one lesser degree. That’s the long-term picture. The focus in the next twelve months will be on nailing the pending top and a cycle trough expected in mid-2026, +/-, which should be black circle-A or blue (4).

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (September 14, 2025) - Bravocycles Newsletter: Market Made New Highs – Will Bitcoin Follow?

 

XLF (2007-2041) is the ticker symbol for the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, an exchange-

traded fund (ETF) that tracks the performance of the financial sector within the S&P 500.

 

Upside bias likely holds into FOMC Meeting on September 17 (Wed).

Rally still has room toward 6,700 (log 61.8%), even 6,800 (100% W1) in blow-off top scenario.

40-week cycle peak in late September to early October will mark a long-term market top.

TPR, August 25, 2025.

See also:

Krasi (September 13, 2025)  - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis: Update and Long-Term View. 

Trigger Trades (September 13, 2025) - Blow-Off Top = Final Wave Before Correction. 

 Jeff Hirsch (September 9, 2025) - September Seasonality of US Stock Indices.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

Branimir Vojcic (August 5, 2025) - S&P 500 20-Week Hurst Cycle Support Around 6,000. 

Branimir Vojcic (2025) - Price Projections Using J.M. Hurst's FLD.
Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Future Lines of Demarcation (FLDs).

TPR (2025) - Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle.

Ethereum Hurst Cycle Analysis: Turning Points for 2025-2026 | Branimir Vojcic

The chart below represents a dual Hurst cycle analysis of troughs and peaks in the 4-hour chart for Ethereum (ETHUSD). The orange line is the cycles composite, based on current estimates of periods, phases, and amplitudes.

Ethereum (4-hour bars) and Cycle Composite (orange line).

 

■ Next 40-week cycle peak (expected) late August or early September 2025.
■ Next 40-week cycle trough late 2025 or early 2026.
■ Next 18-month cycle peak in May 2026.
■ Next 18-month cycle trough September or October 2026.
■ Ethereum's bullish outlook from 2025 to 2028 predicts significant gains relative to Bitcoin.

Do not correlate price with the amplitudes of the cycle composite. Instead, use peaks and troughs as estimates of price turning points. 

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (August 11, 2025)  - Ethereum Hurst Cycle Analysis: Key Turning Points for 2025-2026. (video)

Long-term Spectrum Cycle Composite for ETH.

 

Ethereum Detrended Seasonality, 2020-2025.

 

Ethereum's 2016–2024 returns show Q1–Q2 strength (+20% avg monthly, May +36.48%, 55.56% positive), summer dips (Jun -5.84%, Sep -7.24%, 44.44% positive), and Q4 gains (+7.4% avg, 55–77% positive). Volatility: abs avg 20–30%, medians 4–5%.

Expectations for Remainder 2025 (Sep–Dec) and Q1-Q2 2026: Sep likely dips (-7.24%, 44% positive); Oct–Dec rebounds (+6–8%, 55–77% positive), possibly amplified by year-end sentiment. 2025 YTD momentum (+43.57% May, +41.22% Jul, +24.11% Aug) may soften Sep, but volatility (13–19% abs avg) warrants caution. Q1 2026 (Jan–Mar) rally (+17% avg, 66–78% positive); Q2 (Apr–Jun) strength Apr–May (+29% avg, 56–67% positive) then Jun dip (-5.84%, 44% positive), with ~+20% monthly early-year upside but high vol (20–30% abs avg).

 

See also:
Branimir Vojcic (July 14, 2025)  - Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+.
Philip Hopf (August 8, 2025)  - Ethereum Outlook – Technical Structure and Price Targets.

Ethereum Outlook – Technical Structure and Price Targets | Philip Hopf

After price had risen significantly in recent weeks, Ethereum reached new interim highs at USD 4,070 on August 8, but may now be approaching a medium-term correction. 

 

Ethereum (weekly bars): Major resistance zone around USD 4,107.

The stablecoin market volume stood at USD 250 billion on July 23 and is currently growing by roughly USD 5 billion per week. It has already reached approximately USD 280.8 billion. Over 50% of all stablecoins operate on the Ethereum blockchain – a factor seen as clearly positive for Ethereum. Capital flows show significant inflows into Ethereum ETFs in recent weeks. A notable divergence is visible between retail investors and large investors (institutions/whales):

ETH (black line) Number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 10k (blue line) sharply rising:

The whales are eating Ethereum alive.

 

■ Retail investors have been steadily reducing their Ethereum holdings for months, even during recent price gains.

■ Large investors, on the other hand, have been accumulating heavily. 

■ Number of addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH – currently worth around USD 40 million each – has risen sharply.

 

This is interpreted as a long-term bullish signal: “smart money” is buying while “dumb money” is selling.

 

Short-term price may reach USD 4,200–4,300, followed by a quick pullback.

 

From a technical perspective, there is a major resistance zone around USD 4,107 that has repeatedly triggered sharp corrections in the past. In the short term, price could reach this area or slightly exceed it (up to about USD 4,200–4,300). A breakout above this level might attract momentum traders, potentially followed by a quick pullback.

The expected correction could, depending on the exact high, amount to USD 1,000–1,300, bringing the price down to the USD 3,000 range or lower. This phase is viewed as a buying opportunity.

 

A correction down to around USD 3,000 should be followed by a medium-term
rise to USD 5,500–6,500 and long-term targets of USD 12,000–14,000.

In the medium term, after the correction, another upward move is anticipated, with targets between USD 5,500 and 6,500. In the long term price regions of USD 12,000–14,000 are considered possible. Exact timing cannot be derived from Elliott Wave analysis, as price movements and patterns can vary greatly in duration.

Reference:

Philip Hopf (August 8, 2025) - Ethereum: The Whales are Eating the Market Alive! (video)

 

ETH's 3-year cycle rises late 2025–mid-2027 as BTC’s 4-year cycle declines until early 2027, 

favoring ETH’s outperformance vs. BTC through ~2028.

S&P 500 20-Week Hurst Cycle Support Around 6,000 | Branimir Vojcic

The S&P 500, having bounced off support, is projected by Hurst Cycle Analysis to reverse near its current level and decline into a 20-week cycle low around the third week of August, likely finding support around 6,000 (+/- 50) at the 20-week Forward Line of Demarcation (FLD). 

April 7, 2025, was an 18-month cycle low, and the next 40-week cycle (= 9-month cycle) troughs are estimated for early 2026 and late Q4 2026.

The Hurst Cycle Composite line for the Nasdaq 100 4-hour chart (orange) predicts a mid-August trough, a peak around late September 2025, and a subsequent decline.

 

Reference:

Branimir Vojcic (August 4, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycle Analysis: 20-week cycle low in the third week of August.

 

See also:
Krasi (July 28, 2025)  - S&P 500 Likely Topping 40-Week Hurst Cycle This Week.
David Hickson (July 28, 2025) - S&P 500 and NASDAQ Close to 40-Day Hurst Cycle Peak. 

Price Projections Using J.M. Hurst's FLD | Branimir Vojcic

Using Bitcoin as an example, I will explain the cycle-based price projection method described by J.M. Hurst. In cycle literature, this method is referred to as price projections using the Forward Line of Demarcation (FLD). [The FLD is essentially a displaced moving average, acting as a leading indicator of price interaction with the cycle’s midpoint and as a dynamic support or resistance level.]

 

 

Definitions:
Cycle period = time interval between cycle troughs 

FLD = Forward Line of Demarcation = price shifted by half the cycle period
Cyan line = median of the price bar
TD = trading day
CD = calendar day

 

In the Bitcoin example, the FLD band is constructed by offsetting the median price (High Price + Low Price / 2) by TD = 7 and TD = 8, which correspond to CD = 9 and CD = 10 for the nominal 20-day cycle, presumed to vary between 19 and 20 CDs.

  

■ H1 is the vertical distance between the last low before the median price intersects the left FLD band boundary and the intersection point.

■ H2 is the vertical distance between the last low before the median price intersects the right FLD band boundary and the intersection point.

■ The lower level of the target range is determined by adding H1 to the left FLD boundary intersection point. The upper level of the target range is determined by adding H2 to the right FLD boundary intersection point.

The price targets derived from this method are met with an average probability of 0.7 (i.e., 70% of the time), though they may vary by a few percentage points depending on the cycle length and the financial instrument involved. If one allows for the price to approach—rather than fully reach—the target range, the probability of success increases significantly.

In uptrends, upward targets are reached with a higher probability, while downward targets are less likely to be met. Conversely, in downtrends, downward targets are more probable, and upward targets less so. If a target is not reached, it may indicate a pending price reversal due to one or more longer cycles exerting pressure in the opposite direction.

For cycle periods, one may use Hurst’s nominal cycle periods (see table above) or estimated actual cycle periods, if appropriate software is available. In either case, some tolerance (+/-) around the estimated cycle lengths should be considered.

This remarkably powerful method is difficult to surpass by any other I have encountered. It produces projection targets similar to those obtained using converged Centered Moving Averages (CMA) and focal point-based projections—a logical outcome, since all are based on cycles and their inherent properties.

I hope this explanation demystifies price targets. A combination of price and time targets for turning points is a powerful tool—it helps one stay in the trend as long as possible while anticipating both the price and timing of reversals.

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (2024)  - Price Projections Using FLDs – How to Read Charts.

 

See also:

Christopher Grafton (2022)  - Using FLDs to Forecast Market Turning Points and Trends.

Christopher Grafton (2011)  - Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis. 

TPR (2025)  - J.M. Hurst’s Cyclic Theory.

Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+ | Branimir Vojcic

The analysis of Bitcoin’s performance concludes that Ethereum is likely to outperform Bitcoin over the next few years. However, Bitcoin’s price trajectory is still expected to show significant movement. 

 

Bitcoin's cycle peak in the 2nd half of 2025 will likely coincide with price reaching the green rectangle range, which is a forty-week

cycle price target. According to the preferred Elliott Wave count, that peak should be a wave (a) of super-cycle degree.

 

A cycle composite on the weekly chart projects Bitcoin's peak into the second half of 2025. 

 
A composite of three dominant cycles on the weekly chart indicates continued upside in the coming months, with a cycle peak projected for the second half of 2025. This peak is expected to align with Bitcoin reaching a price target within a green rectangle range, as determined by a 40-week cycle, and corresponds to a wave A of supercycle degree according to the preferred long-term Elliott wave count.

The relative performance of Ethereum versus Bitcoin will likely be better in the next few years.

 

Following this peak, a downturn is anticipated in 2026, with a cycle trough expected in the second half of the year or early 2027. This corrective phase is identified as a supercycle wave B, potentially bringing Bitcoin’s price down to around the 40,000 range during a multi-year correction. The lower blue trend line is highlighted as a logical support level during this period. The corrective wave B could manifest in various forms, such as a zigzag, triangle, or other corrective structures.

After the correction, a supercycle wave C is expected to drive Bitcoin’s price to the 160,000 range or higher, marking a significant long-term upward movement. This analysis combines cycle analysis and Elliott wave theory to provide a comprehensive outlook on Bitcoin’s price behavior over the coming years.

 

ETH’s dominant 3-year cycle enters an up-phase from late 2025 to mid-2027, while BTC’s 4-year cycle remains in decline until early 2027. This out-of-phase alignment supports ETH outperformance vs. BTC through ~2028.

Ethereum is expected to outperform Bitcoin until 2028: Ethereum operates on a dominant three-year cycle, while Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle. These cycles are currently out of phase—Ethereum's cycle is projected to rise from late 2025 to mid-2027, while Bitcoin's cycle will decline until early 2027. Though other factors also influence performance, these dominant cycles are key long-term indicators. 

 

Reference:

Branimir Vojcic (July 14, 2025) - Bitcoin's Next Move (2025-2028): Cycle and Elliott Wave Analysis. (video) 

Branimir Vojcic (May 21, 2025)  - Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Which Crypto Will Dominate? (video) 

 

Altcoin Season Index: It is not Altcoin Season!
 

Bitcoin's Seasonal Trend.

 

 

Bitcoin formed a 40-week cycle trough in April, followed by an 80-day cycle trough in late June. Bitcoin recently hit a $121,000 target set in May or June, with price finding support at the 80-day cycle FLD. A 20-week cycle trough is expected in early September, likely at the 20-week FLD level. A 54-month cycle trough in late 2022 drives the current bullish action, with an 18-month cycle trough in August 2024 forming bullish M shapes. The current 18-month cycle, ending in early 2026, is expected to be less bullish as the 54-month cycle turns down. Watch for a peak before the next 18-month cycle trough in early 2026.

 

Hurst Cycle Analysis for Bitcoin by David Hickson, July 14, 2025.

Seasonal Weakness in US Stocks During July Options Expirations | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1990, the Friday of July’s monthly options expiration week has shown a bearish bias for the DJIA, which declined 21 times in 35 years, with two unchanged years—1991 and 1995. On that Friday, the average loss is 0.36% for the DJIA and 0.35% for the S&P 500.

 DJIA down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.36% loss.

 

The NASDAQ has declined in 23 of the past 35 years during this week, with an average loss of 0.46%, including seven consecutive down years most recently. This trend suggests a potential seasonal bearish pattern likely linked to options trading dynamics.

NASDAQ down 23 of 35 years (65%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.46% loss.

For the full week, the DJIA posts the best performance, rising in 21 of 35 years with an average gain of 0.39%. However, the NASDAQ has been the weakest, declining in 21 years—including the last seven consecutively—with an average loss of 0.18%.

S&P 500 down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.35% loss.

The week following monthly options expiration also tends to be bearish for the NASDAQ, which averages a loss, compared to mild gains for the DJIA and S&P 500.

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 11, 2025)  - July Monthly Options Expiration Week – NASDAQ Down 7 Straight.  

 

Positive Seasonality for Nasdaq (1990-2024) ends this week. SPX is similar.

 

Detrended Seasonality for S&P 500 (1990-2024). 

 

Namzes (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 Forecast Update. 

 

Namzes (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 2025  - 1965 Analogue Update.

 

 Nominal 20-Day Hurst Cycle in the S&P 500.

 

See also:

Krasi (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis. 

Branimir Vojcic (July 5, 2025)  - The NAAIM Index vs the S&P 500.
David Hickson (June 30, 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500. 

Jeff Hirsch (June 25, 2025)  - July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices.