November Post-Election Year Seasonality: Best Month of the Year | Jeff Hirsch

November is typically a bullish month, with twelve bullish days based on the S&P 500. This includes a streak of six consecutive bullish days starting on the first trading day (Nov 3 (Mon)). Although historically a bullish month, November does have its weak points.

November Performance of US Stock Indices: Last 21-Years (2004-2024) and Post-Election Years (1950-2021).

The DJIA and Russell 2000 tend to exhibit the greatest strength at the beginning and end of the month. The Russell 2000, in particular, is notably bearish on its 12th trading day (Nov 18 (Tue)); the small-cap benchmark has risen just eleven times in the past 41 years (since 1984). On this day, the Russell 2000's average decline is 0.41%.

Recent weakness around Thanksgiving (Nov 27 (Thu)) has shifted the strength of the DJIA and S&P 500 to align more closely with that of the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the majority of bullish days occurring at the start and end of the month. The best way to trade around Thanksgiving is to go long on any weakness before the holiday and exit into strength just before or after.
 

Reference: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 30, 2025) - November Best Month of the Year for DJIA & S&P 500.

 

Post-Election Year most bullish in 4-Year Presidential Cycle since 1985.

 

S&P 500 Average Daily Performance and Hit Rate (%) (1928-2024). 

 

S&P 500 Seasonailty First and Last Half of each Month (1928-2024). 

 

S&P 500: We are now in the final phase of this rally. 

 

SPX ES-minis: Down (= 80D peak?).

  

 Gold: 80-day cycle trough zone. Up Reversal?

 

Bitcoin: Heading towards the next 80-day cycle trough. Down.

 

See also:

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.