July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months but is also the seventh best performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.9% average gain. Lively trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year tends to bring an inflow of new capital.

Typical Post-Election Year July: Early Strength, Beyond Mid-Month Mixed.

This creates a bullish beginning, middle, and a mixed/flat final third. On average, over the last 21 years, nearly all of July’s gains have occurred in the first 13 trading days. Once a bullish day, the last trading day of July has had a modestly bearish bias over the last 21 years. In post-election years since 1950, July has exhibited a similar pattern to the recent 21-year period with some modest weakness just ahead of Independence Day.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2025)  - Typical July Trading: Strength Early, Beyond Mid-Month Mixed. 

 

Data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac are showing that since 1950, July has been the strongest month for both the DJIA and the S&P 500 in post-election years. Specifically, the DJIA has averaged a 2.1% gain, ranking first among months, with 15 positive years and only 3 negative years. The S&P 500 mirrors this, averaging a 2.2% gain, also ranking first, with 12 positive and 6 negative years. This covers 19 presidential election cycles from 1952 to 2020, providing a robust dataset spanning post-war booms, recessions, and technological shifts. A notable statistic is the 10-year streak of positive July returns for both indices from 2015 to 2024, suggesting a recent intensification of this seasonal pattern. The table below summarizes the performance:  

 

2025: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%.

 

 S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2023.

 

S&P 500 Average Annual Cycle (2014-2024). 

 

BraVoCycles (June 25, 2025)  - Long-term SPX Elliott Wave count.

 

See also:
Paul Ciana (May 17, 2025)  - S&P 500 on Track for Strongest May-to-July Gains in Years.

TPR (February 4, 2025)  - The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics. 

Is Trump Being Blackmailed Over Epstein Island? | Alexander Dugin

MAGA turns on Israel—and Trump: Is Trump being blackmailed over Epstein Island? Trump has declared war on Iran at the cost of losing his core voters. Furthermore, an unprecedented wave of anti-Israel sentiment has emerged within the MAGA base. Trump has lost the majority of his previous supporters. Many Americans are now ready to go against Trump, because what Trump is doing now is in total opposition to what he has promised. The neocons who now manipulate Trump were initially against Trump. They belong to the Never Trump faction of the Republicans, but now became supporters of Trump more in order to manipulate him.

 

Donald Trump and his then-girlfriend Melania Knauss stand with financier Jeffrey Epstein and 
British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, on February 12, 2000.

 

On the other hand,  Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Charlie Kirk, the main figures in MAGA—all feel betrayed by Trump. Elon Musk has abandoned Trump or is hinting, making allusions that Trump was involved with Epstein. At least, he participated in some pedophilia-related actions. That is a huge accusation. Musk has abandoned Trump’s camp before, on the eve before this Israel-Iranian war, and now the American-Iranian war has started. Another faction of MAGA—Rand Paul and Steve Bannon—recently met with Trump at the White House, urging him not to get involved in the Iranian war.

From POTUS to IsraHell's waiter: Genocide Don pulls the chair for Genocide Bibi,

February 5, 2025.

I think that now MAGA is not just split—it is totally lost. So Trump is, more than in the first term, kidnapped, taken as hostage by globalists, by deep state, by neocons, by all of those against whom he fought during his electoral campaign. He has destroyed his political base.

Musk suggested creating his new party, possibly dubbing “the America Party, ” earlier on. The left wing of the Democratic Party, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, are already against Trump, together with people like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, Alex Jones, Charlie Kirk, Matt Gaetz, and many others. So there is doubling in new politics—Trump has lost Trump. Trump is now outside of Trump once more.

At the same time, I don’t see the importance and the power of Democrats has grown—not at all. So Democrats still have a very low profile, a very low level of support. And Trump has lost his own support incredibly fast. So there is a huge amount of people in the United States who are against the war, but who have zero political representation. Before, they were distributed between Democrats and Republicans, and now they are totally abandoned. Immediately, we have a third pole. There are globalist left liberals, globalists; there is this MAGA core—that is the millions and millions and millions. That’s a third party or a third pole or a third power whose representation is now very badly needed in the United States, because the mass of the population that is not satisfied, neither with globalists or deep state nor with Trump now, is huge.

Elon Musk has once asked his 220 million followers if they think it’s “time to create a new political party in America that actually represents the 80% in the middle,”on his social media account with 200 million people, 60 million have participated in this poll and 80% have said yes. Musk and MAGA, if they would start a new party, I think it would win in all the ongoing elections.

 Elon Musk, June 5, 2025: "Time to drop the really big bomb: Trump is in the Epstein files."

The photo authentically depicts Donald Trump and financier Jeffrey Epstein together in 1997. 

We need to follow this moment, because it is not just hesitation from parts of people supporting Trump—Trump has lost his core voters, and they have no representation after the moment of glory, after the moment of victory when they won with Trump and through Trump. They once felt that victory was so close, and now, with this new war, they have lost all hope in Trump.

So I believe the Third World War, involving the United States, could unfold in parallel with a civil war within the country—not only between two factions of the population, but a three-pole civil war. Not just one against the other, but there are liberal democrats, there is the hardcore MAGA, and there are Trumpists and neocons loyal to Trump.

And now, in MAGA in general, there is unprecedented amount of anti-Israel feeling inside the United States. Most people—mostly American nationalists and patriots—they were more or less pro-Israel. And now, it is millions and millions of people hate Israel who they believed are trying to control the American government, which is against US sovereignty. They have nothing against Jews or Israel initially, but when Israeli politicians are believed to be manipulating the American government, that is different. That is a loss of sovereignty.

 

I have never seen in my life such a huge wave of anti-Israel feelings in American society. It is not anti-Semitic, not at all—it is anti-Israel. I think that the blow against Trump is much greater than he could have suspected. So there is something much more tectonic in these changes. That was a trap for him. That was his mistake, a big error—the biggest error he has committed, maybe in all his life—with this bombing of Iran. He didn’t reach any goal. Now, the United States is at war officially against Iran. He didn’t hit the goal, and he has lost everything, more than he could permit himself to lose.

I think that maybe he was really blackmailed. Many American patriots, they say Trump was blackmailed by Mossad, because he participated in the orgies or illicit actions on Epstein Island. They blackmailed him through those networks, and that would end his presidency immediately. Because Epstein’s case is something so awful that all American people are in a state of rage against that. And if Trump is now, it seems, implicated in or participated in that—so that would end his career. But many consider that the war against Iran is confirmation of the fact that he was on the Epstein list.

Reference:
Alexander Dugin (June 25, 2025)  - MAGA Turns on Israel—and Trump: Is Trump Being Blackmailed Over Epstein Island? 

 

See also:
David Pyne (June 25, 2025)  - Israel Lobby Fractures MAGA, Trump Support Falling, War Powers Expanded. (video)

We Have Completed Our Very Successful Attack | Donald J. Trump

 @realDonaldTrump

June 22, 2025 01:53 AM 

 

@realOsama

September 11, 2001 12:00 PM 

 

@RealHirohito

December 7, 1941 12:00 PM 

 

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Already In the Thick of World War III | Alexander Dugin

Some people probably think that World War III might pass us by. That’s the "Patrick Syndrome": everything happening around us supposedly doesn’t concern us. Don’t fool yourselves. We are already in the thick of World War III. The United States has carried out a bombing strike on our ally, Iran. And nothing stopped them. Now, there’s nothing stopping them—or anyone else—from striking us next. At some point, they’ll decide that not only Iran, but Russia too should not have nuclear weapons. Or they’ll come to some other conclusion.

 

As useful as a band-aid on a corpse.

We’re already at war. They might strike if we advance. They might strike if we retreat. They can strike whenever and wherever they want. Ukraine, of course, is not Israel for the West—but it plays a similar role. Not long ago, Israel didn’t exist either. But it emerged and became a proxy for the collective West (although many Israelis would argue the opposite—that the West is actually a proxy for Israel).

Ukraine is in the same position. And it’s no surprise that Zelensky isn’t just asking, but demanding full support from the West—including nuclear weapons. The role model is obvious: the West is "Ukraine’s proxy." And by the way, the Kiev regime bombed Donbas in much the same way Israel bombs Gaza—only with fewer resources, and with Russia responding more decisively to protect its own people than the Islamic countries did.

 As more players join the war, the situation will evolve rapidly.

Our appeals to the UN and our peacekeeping efforts are now as useful as a band-aid on a corpse. If Iran falls, we’re next. Trump is entirely under the control of the neocons, just as he was in his first term. The MAGA project is over. There will be no “Great America”—only regular globalism.

Musk had already explained everything: Trump was involved in unsavory activities on Epstein’s island, and the footage is in Mossad’s hands. Musk distanced himself in time. Trump has lost his agency. He thinks he can just launch one strike—like he did with Soleimani—and then pull back. But pulling back isn’t an option. He has simply started World War III—and he’s not capable of ending it.

The MAGA project is over.

 

Now much depends on Iran. If Iran regroups and keeps fighting, it still has a chance to win. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The Houthis have blocked shipping in the Red Sea. As more players join the war, the situation will evolve rapidly. China will try to stay out—until it gets hit too.

 

If Iran surrenders, it will lose itself and betray everyone else. That goes for the rest of us as well. Russia is facing a deadly choice. The question is no longer whether to fight or not—Russia is already at war. Everyone knows this, except the Patricks. The question is: the way we’ve been fighting is no longer enough. That resource has been exhausted. So now we must fight differently. In a new way.

 

Alexander Dugin 

June 22, 2025

Hurst Cycles Timing & Straddled Troughs in the S&P 500 | David Hickson

The 80-day cycle trough was anticipated around early to mid-last week, but as of June 16, 2025 (Monday), it is considered overdue. The cycle is at 70 days since the last trough on April 7, 2025, compared to a recent average wavelength of 61 days and Hurst’s historical average of 68 days.

 

The S&P 500 is expected to form an 80-day cycle trough around mid-June 2025, potentially straddled, 
with bullish price action likely to follow toward a 20-week cycle trough in early August 2025.

 

If the trough formed on June 16, 2025, it would be 2 days later than the historical 68-day average. If it formed last Friday (June 13, 2025), it would be 1 day earlier than the average. If price continues downward without a bounce, the trough could be delayed to around Monday, June 23, 2025 (see also Cosmic Cluster Days and Seasonal Pattern), potentially due to a rephasing of the 18-month cycle trough to April 7, 2025 (displacing the 80-day trough by ~20 days).
 

 A straddled trough in Hurst cycle analysis occurs when a cycle trough is weak or hard to identify because shorter 
cycles are overshadowed by longer ones (e.g., 20-week, 40-week, 18-month).

The 80-day cycle is weak, showing minimal downward price influence, likely overshadowed by longer cycles (20-week, 40-week, 18-month). This results in a straddled trough, where the trough is subtle and lacks a strong downward move, as seen in the upper chart in the red dashed composite model line. The next 20-Week Cycle Trough is expected in early August 2025, which will likely have a stronger influence on price due to the dominance of longer cycles.

Reference:
David Hickson (June 16, 2025)  - Straddled Troughs - What You Need to Know. (video) 

 

Philip Hopf: Elliott Wave projections for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Tom Pizzuti, June 17, 2025 (Tue): It doesn’t look like an impulse up from the June 12th low. I favor a break
under 6052.00 at some point today in an effort to push down to at least 5993.00 and preferably lower.  

Jeff Hirsch, June 17, 2025: "Get Ready for NASDAQ’s Christmas in July Mid-Year Rally."

 

See also:

David Hickson (May 19, 2025)  - Bullish Hurst Cycle Targets for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. 

Krasi (June 16, 2025)  - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis.

Cosmic Cluster Days | June 2025

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. The 'noise channel' serves as a signal filter, with the upper and lower limits of the channel being empirically defined. That said, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows also within the 'noise channel,' may correlate with or coincide with short-term market trends and reversals.

 

Cosmic Cluster Days  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel    — — —  Solunar Rhythm

 ○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon | ▴  = Lunar Declination max North / ▾ = max South |  立春 =  Solar Terms

 

Cosmic Cluster Days in June 2025:

 May 25 (Sun) | Jun 24 (Tue) | Jul 10 (Thu)

 

For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation method, click [HERE].

 

Lunation Cycle, click [HERE].  

Planet Speed (Retrogradity), click [HERE]. 

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Turning Points, click [HERE]. 

Sensitive Degrees of the Sun, click [HERE].

Planetary Declinations, click [HERE].

The SoLunar Rhythm in June 2025.

 

Venus at Greatest Elongation on Sunday, June 1, 2025 at 4:00 EDT.

Venus at Aphelion on Thursday, June 12, 2025 at 5:00 EDT.

Summer Solstice on Friday, June 20, 2025 at 22:42 EDT.

Earth at Aphelion on Thursday, July 3, 2025 at 15:54 EDT.

 

Selected geocentric events in June 2025 (EST/EDT).

June 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

In post-election years since 1950, early June strength has been notably stronger for NASDAQ and Russell 2000, while DJIA and S&P 500 have typically struggled.  

 

 Typical June Pattern of the S&P 500 in a Post-Election Year:

Early Strength: Starts with a slight uptrend, weaker than NASDAQ (2.5%) or Russell 2000. 

Mid-Month Dip: Drops around days 10-15 due to profit-taking or uncertainty. 

Late-Month Recovery: Rallies late June to a neutral or positive close, less than small-cap/tech gains.

 

So far in June 2025, Russell 2000 ($IWM) has gained 3.8% and NASDAQ ($QQQ) 2.5%, setting the stage for a typical brisk mid-month drop followed by a month-end rally, often led by technology and small caps.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 10, 2025) - Small Caps Rocking Typical Post-Election June.

 

 S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2023.