Al-Aqsa Triangle: Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb, and Suez Chokepoints

Following the partial disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is emerging as a second potential global energy chokepoint. The Ansar Allah movement (Houthis) in Yemen has announced an initial naval blockade targeting Saudi vessels, citing the long-standing Saudi air and sea blockade of Yemen. 

Al-Aqsa Triangle: Yemen–Iran strategy to disrupt global trade
by closing the Middle East's three key maritime chokepoints.

Bab al-Mandeb links the Suez–Red Sea corridor to the Indian Ocean and, alongside Hormuz, forms a dual chokepoint system vulnerable to escalation via Iran-aligned actors. A simultaneous disruption would block roughly a quarter of global energy flows and a large share of Asia–Europe trade, with Hormuz carrying 27% of seaborne oil and 20% of LNG, and the Bab al-Mandeb/Suez corridor each handling 11% of global trade and 8% of LNG. 

The Bab al-Mandeb is not yet fully closed. Commercial traffic continues, but the corridor is operating under elevated threat conditions. Attacks on selected vessels have increased, producing selective disruption rather than a comprehensive blockade. In response, some shipping lines are rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, while others continue transit under heightened security measures, including naval presence and route adjustments. In response to constraints at Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has shifted a significant share of exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, where approximately 4 million barrels of crude are loaded daily. Roughly 3 million barrels per day are destined for Asian markets and transit the Bab al-Mandeb.

American worthless signature: The repeated breaches of the agreement by the Great Satan regarding the MOU signed by the Presidents of Iran and the US have once again laid bare a fundamental truth: the signature of the US President is utterly worthless and devoid of credibility. It further reaffirms that coercion and brutality are inseparable components of the US creed and doctrine. Imam Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei, July 17, 2026.

Rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope adds 6,000 km (3,700 miles) and 10–14 days transit time, in some cases longer. This materially increases fuel, charter, and operating costs. War-risk insurance premiums for Red Sea transit have also surged, adding several hundred thousand USD per voyage. Escalation risk centers on a full blockade scenario. If Ansar Allah forces interdict all international shipping, not just Saudi vessels, the impact would be significantly greater.

 

Strategic Trade Significance: Hormuz vs. Bab al-Mandeb

Hormuz concentrates unmatched upstream energy dependency, funneling roughly 20% of global oil (17–20 million bpd), over 20% of LNG, and a decisive share of global helium vital for high-tech and medical supply chains. Because Saudi and UAE pipeline bypasses cover only a fraction of normal volumes, any disruption creates an immediate physical supply deficit—driving rapid oil and gas repricing with direct spillovers into petrochemicals, fertilizers, and industrial inputs.

Bab al-Mandeb anchors throughput rather than production, serving as the southern gateway to Suez. It carries 12–15% of global trade, including major Asia–Europe container traffic, dry bulk, and mid-single-digit million bpd of oil. Unlike Hormuz, these flows can be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, though doing so adds roughly 6,000 km, 10–14 days, and sharp increases in fuel costs, vessel utilization constraints, freight rates, and war-risk premiums.

Consequently, their economic transmission mechanisms diverge. Hormuz is a quantity shock that removes physical supply and forces immediate energy repricing. Bab al-Mandeb is a friction shock that preserves supply but degrades delivery efficiency, triggering broader, slower-moving inflation across manufactured goods, energy derivatives, and food. Fertilizer markets sit at the intersection, relying on Hormuz for Gulf ammonia and urea to exit, and on Bab al-Mandeb for efficient delivery to European and African markets.

Simultaneous impairment escalates systemic risk nonlinearly. Upstream supply contraction combines with downstream logistical breakdown, eliminating volume availability and transit efficiency at once. This dual constraint compresses global inventories, amplifies price volatility, and propagates cost increases across industrial inputs and consumer goods with minimal buffering capacity.

The Bab al-Mandeb handles thousands of commercial transits annually and links the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and Suez Canal—one of the world's critical trade corridors. Full closure would force large-scale rerouting around Africa, extending delivery times, increasing freight rates and insurance costs, and placing renewed stress on global supply chains.  

 

July 21, 2026: Iran Destroys F-15 Hanger Base, 100 US Troops Lost as Trump Panics.

Cost transmission effects would likely be broad-based. Higher transport costs would feed into fuel prices (gasoline, diesel, heating oil), airfares, food, consumer goods, and imported products. Firms would absorb higher logistics and energy costs, with partial pass-through to end consumers.

July 21, 2026: Bab al-Mandeb Strait Becomes New Shipping Flashpoint as Houthis Signal Blockade.

 

The EU is engaged via Operation Aspides with a mandate limited to protecting civilian shipping. The US and the UK are conducting separate military strikes against targets in Yemen. Historical precedent indicates limited containment success: prior multinational naval deployments with dozens of warships failed to durably constrain Ansar Allah capabilities. Current Ansar Allah systems include even more advanced drones and missiles than in 2025.

Zero Exits: Houthis Blockade Saudi Arabia. 

 

A concurrent escalation in Bab al-Mandeb alongside sustained tension in the Strait of Hormuz would affect the region's two principal energy and trade corridors simultaneously, posing a high-risk scenario for global economic disruption and upward pressure on energy, transport, and consumer prices.

Oil Outlook 2026: Navigating the Upcoming 40-Week Cycle Low | Namzes

18-Month Cycle & Major Lows: The 18-month cycle low that I was anticipating for mid-December 2025 arrived right on schedule (see middle panel). We likely also have a major 4-to-5-year cycle low in place, meaning we are in the very early stages of a new macro up-cycle.

Impending 40-Week Cycle Low: We are currently due for a 40-week cycle low, which historically carries a wide range but averages around 228 days. Over the next few weeks, we could see the market retest or slightly undercut recent lows, potentially filling the $67.83 gap on WTI futures (note that the Brent gap has already been filled).

 

 

 
Next Leg Higher: Once this low is firmly established, I expect the next leg higher to carry into the fall, aligning with typical seasonal strength through roughly October.

 

 Crude Oil, Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1984-2024).

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Technicals: Price is currently trading within the 20-week projection range—the half-cycle offset is illustrated in blue and purple (h/t Peter Eliades for bringing his excellent service to TradingView). To trigger the upside projections, price needs to reclaim its 200-day moving average (DMA), represented by the white line. Reclaiming this level is crucial to repairing the otherwise weak short-term technical picture.

Path to $150+: While the long-term structure looks like a textbook bullish breakout and retest, short-term momentum remains firmly to the downside. We need to see price recapture the 200 DMA and ultimately break above the diagonal resistance levels in the $80s, establishing a constructive structure of higher lows and higher highs on both the daily and weekly charts. The $120 level remains a massive overhead resistance; however, a clean close above it unlocks a move toward $150–$160, which remains our primary target for the coming months.

Speculator Capitulation: Speculative positioning has dropped significantly across both Brent and WTI (green line in bottom panel). This washout in positioning strongly supports the idea that a bottoming process is underway. There is a massive amount of dry powder in terms of financial barrels that can be aggressively added back the momentum shifts to the upside.
 

 

 

China Import Anomaly: The most critical variable to watch—and the primary reason oil prices haven't surged higher—is Chinese oil imports. China has essentially cut its imports in half, a reduction that effectively neutralized about 50% of the lost production and supply disruptions in the Gulf. They achieved this either by cutting refinery runs or aggressively drawing down their underground inventories (though without full data visibility, the exact mix remains speculative).

Macro Inventory Gamble: How long can China sustain a drawdown of 5 to 6 million barrels per day (MBD)? That is above my pay grade, but the global market is clearly continuing to deplete its inventories. The market is essentially betting on a normalization of the Strait of Hormuz and a return to regular production levels, which would theoretically allow countries to refill their Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) at lower prices.

 

 
Trump-Xi Geopolitical Quid Pro Quo? This massive inventory drawdown directly coincided with the recent Trump-Xi summit. It raises an interesting geopolitical question: Did the Trump administration quietly trade a policy of non-intervention regarding a China-Taiwan reunification in exchange for Beijing drawing down its inventories to suppress oil prices during this crisis? Given that China appears poised to move on Taiwan in the next few years anyway, Washington may have decided to extract a major economic concession while they still could.

 

The most important thing to watch, and the reason oil prices never went higher, is China's oil imports. They essentially cut imports in half, neutralizing about half of all lost Gulf production and supply. They did this either by reducing refinery runs or drawing down underground inventories (which remains speculation due to a lack of visibility).

How long can they continue drawing 5–6 MBD? That is beyond my pay grade, but the world is clearly depleting inventories—effectively betting on Hormuz normalization and a return to normal production levels that would allow SPR refills at lower prices.

This also coincided with the Trump-Xi summit. Did Trump trade non-intervention in a China-Taiwan reunification for China drawing down inventories during this crisis to keep oil prices lower? China will take Taiwan in the next few years anyway, so they might as well get something out of China in exchange.

 

With the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) running at maximum levels in June and China cutting its imports in half, trapped tankers are now trying to exit the Strait of Hormuz simultaneously, putting heavy downward pressure on the spot market. However, looking a few months out, the picture becomes far less rosy.

 

 
First, the current SPR release will stop shortly, and those borrowed barrels must be returned with interest. Second, while Gulf production needs to ramp up, Iran is actively trying to control and slow down traffic; recognizing that the Strait of Hormuz is their primary leverage, they are attempting to restrict shipping lanes to their side of the strait, as shown in the chart above. Third, China will eventually have to normalize its imports, which will reintroduce 5 to 6 MBD of incremental demand to the market. Finally, the world has drawn down over 1 billion barrels of inventory that must be replenished, leaving nations with very little cushion for further emergency SPR releases in the event of any future escalation.

 

Is the grand TACO real? Iran won the war and Trump capitulated, giving Iran everything they asked for. Knowing Trump, it is very possible he signed an MOU just to open the strait and lower oil prices, without any intent to keep his side of the agreement.

Iran will try to keep Hormuz traffic constrained to avoid giving up their oil card, so expect periodic escalations. Furthermore, Israel doesn’t want this deal to be signed, so they will continue escalations in Lebanon; since Lebanon was included in the agreement, this undermines any long-term peace deal. If escalations continue, Iran would be inclined to seek nuclear weapons as the only long-term deterrent against the US and Israel. Ultimately, we should expect more back-and-forth escalations rather than one grand deal or reopening.

 

Bottom line: There is no easy solution and no fast path to normalization. Iran holds the cards and won’t give them up at this stage. Oil trading sub-70 is a function of short-term flows of trapped barrels out of Hormuz, SPR releases, the China import boycott, and a speculator positioning unwind. Looking a couple of months out, the risk-reward is heavily skewed to the upside.

Namzes, June 28, 2026.

 

"No Longer an Eye for an Eye, but an Eye for a Head, Hand, and Foot" | IRGC

"If Trump hits Iran’s infrastructure, it will no longer be an eye for an eye, but an eye for a head, hand, and foot. America will be paralyzed." Mohsen Rezaee, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and top military adviser to  Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that any Trump-led strikes on Iranian infrastructure would trigger asymmetric retaliation, escalating beyond a proportional response. His remarks, aired on Iranian television today, followed the reported US postponement of attacks on Iranian power facilities.

 »  America will be paralyzed. «

 

Rezaee announced on Saturday that the war will continue until the US completely withdraws from the Persian Gulf and West Asia. He further declared that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to all vessels affiliated with the US, I$raHell, NATO, and G7 nations. Iran's blockade targets only those hostile countries, while vessels from China, Russia, Pakistan, India, Spain, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Japan, North Korea, South Africa, Thailand, Oman, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Kenya, and dozens of other friendly nations can pass through the strait. However, the strait’s closure to enemy states following the onset of U$raHell's airstrikes against Iran on February 28 has triggered what the International Energy Agency describes as the "largest oil supply crisis on record."

 »  For the war to end, the US must withdraw from the Gulf region. «

 

» There will be no ceasefire this time. The fate Hitler met in the snows
of Russia will await the Americans when they face our determination. «

 

Never stop your enemy from making mistakes.

 
The projected scale of radioactive contamination from the destruction of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant—as threatened by Trump—is severe. Bushehr, a Russian-built facility remains operational; however, the recent impact of a missile within 350 meters of the reactor compartment, indicates that the destruction is contemplated by U$raHell. A breach of the reactor’s containment would result in a nuclear catastrophe of exceptional scale and hazard.

»  Radioactive dispersion could extend to Oman and, across the Arabian Sea, reach southern India, with 

possible impacts on Sri Lanka and further spread toward Indonesia, Malaysia, and southern Thailand. « 

 
The reactor core contains approximately 72 tons of nuclear fuel, with more than 200 tons of spent fuel stored in adjacent pools. Destruction of the cooling systems would lead to core meltdown and a substantial release of radionuclides, including cesium-137, iodine-131, and strontium-90. While the containment structure is designed to localize part of such a release, prevailing winds would likely carry the radioactive plume southeast—directly toward the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
 

March 21, 2026: Retaliation for U$raHell's strike on Bushehr. Chaos erupts in Arad—home to
Dimona-linked nuclear personnel. Even Israeli sources admit that about 20 buildings were
destroyed, hundreds were killed and injured, and bodies are still buried under the rubble.

 

Epstein's boyfriend was absolutely duped by I$raHell and

his handler, Jared Kushner. Utter intelligence failure by the US.

 

» Israel needs to cease to exist. It is literally the cancer on the planet. «

Scott Ritter, March 22, 2026. 

 

» The world is witnessing an asymmetrical confrontation between two opposing sides, which has displayed the peak

of brutality as well as desperation on one side, and innocence along with heroic resistance on the other side. «
Qasem Soleimani, 2020.

 

» I say frankly to the American statesmen, who are now managing the genocide in Palestine: You will not be spared from this fire. The entire Palestine, from the sea to the river, belongs only to original Palestinians, including Christians, Jews and Muslims. «  

Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, 2023.  

 

In desert conditions, where there is minimal precipitation to wash contaminants from the soil and no significant river systems to transport suspended particles, cesium-137 would accumulate in salt flats and coastal zones with long-term persistence. For the UAE, the consequences would extend beyond economic disruption to potentially existential impacts. Subsequently, radioactive dispersion could extend to Oman and, across the Arabian Sea, reach southern India, with possible impacts on Sri Lanka and further spread toward Indonesia, Malaysia, and southern Thailand.

Already In the Thick of World War III | Alexander Dugin

Some people probably think that World War III might pass us by. That’s the "Patrick Syndrome": everything happening around us supposedly doesn’t concern us. Don’t fool yourselves. We are already in the thick of World War III. The United States has carried out a bombing strike on our ally, Iran. And nothing stopped them. Now, there’s nothing stopping them—or anyone else—from striking us next. At some point, they’ll decide that not only Iran, but Russia too should not have nuclear weapons. Or they’ll come to some other conclusion.

 

As useful as a band-aid on a corpse.

We’re already at war. They might strike if we advance. They might strike if we retreat. They can strike whenever and wherever they want. Ukraine, of course, is not Israel for the West—but it plays a similar role. Not long ago, Israel didn’t exist either. But it emerged and became a proxy for the collective West (although many Israelis would argue the opposite—that the West is actually a proxy for Israel).

Ukraine is in the same position. And it’s no surprise that Zelensky isn’t just asking, but demanding full support from the West—including nuclear weapons. The role model is obvious: the West is "Ukraine’s proxy." And by the way, the Kiev regime bombed Donbas in much the same way Israel bombs Gaza—only with fewer resources, and with Russia responding more decisively to protect its own people than the Islamic countries did.

 As more players join the war, the situation will evolve rapidly.

Our appeals to the UN and our peacekeeping efforts are now as useful as a band-aid on a corpse. If Iran falls, we’re next. Trump is entirely under the control of the neocons, just as he was in his first term. The MAGA project is over. There will be no “Great America”—only regular globalism.

Musk had already explained everything: Trump was involved in unsavory activities on Epstein’s island, and the footage is in Mossad’s hands. Musk distanced himself in time. Trump has lost his agency. He thinks he can just launch one strike—like he did with Soleimani—and then pull back. But pulling back isn’t an option. He has simply started World War III—and he’s not capable of ending it.

The MAGA project is over.

 

Now much depends on Iran. If Iran regroups and keeps fighting, it still has a chance to win. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The Houthis have blocked shipping in the Red Sea. As more players join the war, the situation will evolve rapidly. China will try to stay out—until it gets hit too.

 

If Iran surrenders, it will lose itself and betray everyone else. That goes for the rest of us as well. Russia is facing a deadly choice. The question is no longer whether to fight or not—Russia is already at war. Everyone knows this, except the Patricks. The question is: the way we’ve been fighting is no longer enough. That resource has been exhausted. So now we must fight differently. In a new way.

 

Alexander Dugin 

June 22, 2025