JPMorgan Maps and Times the Global Oil Supply Shockwave | Really?

JPMorgan commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva released a report on March 26, 2026 (no complete official  public version available) that outlines how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a progressive, region-by-region oil supply shock. As of March 30, 2026, this analysis remains the authoritative reference: 

 

East Asia and Asia-Pacific deplete first, Africa, Europe, and the Americas follow.

Gradual Inventory Depletion Crisis (according to JPM)

The global oil supply system has shifted from an abrupt flow disruption to a gradual inventory depletion crisis, with timing emerging as the central driver of economic impact. The report’s core projections—an initial gross supply shock of approximately 16 million barrels (MMbbl) per day tapering to around 10 MMbbl per day by April—continue to align with current developments.

 

Estimated Dependency on Persian Gulf / West Asia Oil Imports (2025–2026). 

Nature and Progression of the Supply Shock (according to JPM)

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has stayed more than 95% below normal levels since the last regular commercial tanker departed on February 28, 2026. The shockwave propagates from east to west, governed by maritime distances from the Persian Gulf. Asia, which normally receives over 80% of the crude oil transiting the Strait, faces the earliest and most severe effects. Pre-closure shipments have been exhausted, resulting in rapid inventory depletion across the region. India experienced the initial impact, followed by Northeast Asian importers including China, Japan, and South Korea.

 

The Strait of Hormuz is not closed: On March 29, Dimitri Lascaris boarded an Iranian civilian vessel and toured the Strait of Hormuz for approximately one hour. There, he observed and recorded the presence of nearly 100 oil tankers and cargo ships. By all indications, commercial vessels continue to transit the Strait in significant numbers, but they now do so on terms dictated by the Islamic Republic. 

Southeast-Asia, Asia-Pacific, and Africa (according to JPM)

Southeast Asian oil demand is projected to contract by roughly 300,000 barrels per day in April. Losses could exceed 2 MMbbl per day in May and approach 3 MMbbl per day by June if strategic reserve releases remain limited to individual national efforts. Africa is expected to encounter visible impacts in early April, with potential oil demand losses reaching 250,000 barrels per day should inventories continue to decline.

 

The Philippines declared a national energy emergency. 

 

Asia-Pacific Emergency Measures and Rationing (according to JPM)

Several Asia-Pacific governments have implemented structured conservation and demand-management policies. The Philippines (population 117 million) declared a national energy emergency on March 24, 2026 through Executive Order No. 110 signed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Department of Energy has directed power-sector participants to adopt immediate fuel-conservation protocols, prudent load management, and generation-schedule adjustments. A four-day work week has been introduced for many government offices, accompanied by encouragement of remote work and reduced non-essential travel. Fuel imports from alternative sources, including Russian crude under temporary US sanctions waivers, have been authorized. 

 

Australia (27M) holds approximately 36 days of petrol stocks, 34 days of diesel, and 32 days of jet-fuel inventories (figures from early March, now further drawn down). Nationwide rationing has not been enacted, though the government has temporarily eased fuel-quality standards for 60 days to redirect roughly 100 million liters of export-grade fuel into the domestic market each month. Service stations in some areas have introduced voluntary purchase caps, and national contingency planning for standardized stock reporting and potential future rationing is advancing. 

Australia is one of the world’s largest energy exporters—the third-largest exporter of LNG and the leading seaborne supplier of thermal and metallurgical coal. Rumor has it their degenerate eugenicist government now aims for a COVID-style "energy lockdown"—never letting a fine crisis go to waste. Like them, the European Commission is fanatically in line with the UN self-extinction Agenda 2030, always eager and ready to strangle its people beyond imagination.

South Korea (51M) has imposed a five-month ban on naphtha exports, effective March 27, 2026, to prioritize domestic petrochemical and refining needs. China has restricted overseas shipments of refined fuels to preserve domestic inventories. Approximately 5% of ethylene production capacity in Japan, South Korea, and China has shut down due to feedstock shortages.

Impacts on Europe and North America (according to JPM)

Europe (450M) is projected to face pressure by mid-April, primarily through elevated costs and intensified competition for non-Gulf supplies rather than outright physical shortages. Natural-gas prices on the continent have risen to 55–58 euros per megawatt-hour, while airlines confront severe pressure from surging jet-fuel expenses. Slovenia has become the first European Union member to impose explicit fuel rationing, limiting private motorists to 50 liters per day.

 

A dull face, yet impeccably groomed—vain, deeply self-important, and convinced he has control over everyone and 
everything: European Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, the quintessential apparatchik, an unshakable pillar of the regime.

Dozens of loaded oil tankers have been idling off the coasts of Belgium and the Netherlands for weeks. Port workers and tanker crews report that the EU Commission is preventing them from entering ports to unload their cargo. An EU oil shortage is being created to justify and bring about an "energy lockdown." These are the very same ilk who implemented the COVID‑19 plandemic script, who seize farmers' lands for "climate protection," who feed the meat grinder in Ukraine, who keep their mouths shut and bow down after the US blows up Europe's main pipelines with Russia, who wail over Greenland, and who cheer the US takeover of Venezuela — the very same Zionist perverts who have financed and participated in U$raHell's genocides and wars ever since — including the ongoing one against Iran.

North America appears latest in the timeline, with most Gulf shipments expected to cease arriving around April 15, 2026. The US (342M) is unlikely to experience direct physical shortages owing to its robust domestic production. The impact will manifest mainly through rising fuel prices and refined-product market dislocations. West Texas Intermediate crude has increased more than 40% in March and continues to trade approximately 10 dollars below Brent.
 

Mitigation Efforts and Global Responses (according to JPM)

Gulf producers are expanding alternative export routes to mitigate the disruption. Saudi Arabia has increased flows through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu from 0.8 to 3.3 MMbbl per day, with potential to reach 4.7 MMbbl per day by April. The United Arab Emirates has raised throughput on its Fujairah bypass pipeline from 1.1 to 1.6 MMbbl per day. These workarounds replace only a fraction of the lost capacity.

 

A Russian tanker with 650,000 barrels of Urals crude arrived in Cuba (11M) today despite

the US genocidal blockade of the island, providing limited relief for roughly 9–10 days.

 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has coordinated the release of 400 MMbbl from strategic reserves across its 32 member nations—the largest such operation in the agency’s history—with the US contributing nearly half from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has described the current disruption as the greatest threat to global energy security on record.

 

Geopolitical and Market Outlook

In Asia the energy supply crisis has strained aviation, agriculture, construction, and heavy transport sectors, prompting emergency measures. Geopolitically, the disruption has enhanced the attractiveness of Russian overland export corridors and reinforced the strategic position of US LNG supplies in both Asian and European markets.

As of March 30, 2026, Iran maintains a selective policy on the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed to vessels linked to U$raHell and their active allies. Tehran has explicitly permitted safe passage for ships from countries it considers "friendly" or non-hostile — China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iraq, and Bangladesh. Malaysia and Thailand have benefited on a case-by-case basis, sometimes involving prior diplomatic contact or a transit fee.

 

► Japan has declined to commit naval or military forces to US–Israeli operations, and is offered safe passage through the Strait.

► India has successfully negotiated transit for Indian-flagged LPG carriers and other vessels, occasionally escorted by the Indian Navy in the Gulf of Oman. 

► Pakistan has secured passage for specific tankers, and Iran has agreed to allow up to 20 additional Pakistani-flagged ships, with two vessels crossing daily.

► China has engaged in talks for safe passage of crude and LNG vessels, though some Chinese-linked ships have turned back due to practical risks despite assurances. 

► Bangladesh has been included in Iran’s list of friendly countries.
► Taiwan is a nation hostile to Iran, and has mitigated the crisis with oil reserves and secured LNG supplies through April. Short-term actions include accelerated procurement of alternative LNG from the US and Australia. Contingency plans involve emergency spot-market purchases and mutual assistance discussions with partners such as Japan and South Korea. 

► South Korea and Vietnam have conducted diplomatic outreach to Iran for safe passage, receiving positive indications from Tehran, though broad arrangements remain limited or pending. 

► The Philippines, not hostile to Iran, but one of the most vulnerable nations, has focused primarily on declaring a national energy emergency, implementing conservation measures, and sourcing Russian crude under temporary US sanctions waivers rather than pursuing high-profile direct diplomacy with Iran, although domestic calls for such talks have emerged. 

 

Continuously Updated Supply Chain Disruptions Map.

 

On March 26, 2026, Epstein's boyfriend announced a 10-day extension of the pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, extending the deadline to April 6. He cited an Iranian request for negotiations, noting that Iran had permitted "10 tankers to pass through the Strait as a goodwill gesture;" Iranian officials, however, denied that any talks were under way.

 

Iran continues to mock Epstein’s boyfriend...

 

...White House bimbo Karoline Leavitt insists 'negotiations'

are ongoing and Iran is lying by stating otherwise... 

 

...and as Iran and Asia bear the brunt of both immediate and long-term harm, the U$raHell

war machine puppeteers once again emerge as the leading and most immediate profiteers.

It’s about time to sink some aircraft carriers... 

   

Brent crude, which closed at $108.01 per barrel on March 27, now trades in the $111–115 range as of March 30, 2026. Macquarie Group has assigned a 40% probability to the conflict extending through June, a scenario that could drive Brent above $200 per barrel and US retail gasoline prices to approximately $7 per gallon. Wood Mackenzie has warned that a sustained Brent average of $125 per barrel throughout 2026 would be sufficient to trigger a global recession. 

 

Iran’s "reverse indicator" trading advice continues to play out in real-time:

At 4:12 PM ET on Sunday, March 29, Iran's Speaker of the Parliament said US pre-market news is

a "reverse indicator";  if they "dump" the market, then "go long," and if they "pump it, short it."

  

See also:

 SupplyStatus (March 28, 2026) - JPMorgan Maps Global Oil Shockwave from Hormuz Closure - Global Supply Crisis Timeline.

Stanislav Krapivnik (March 27, 2026) - No Energy, No Food: Global System Breakdown Begins.

TPR (March 23, 2026) - Crude Oil Long-Term Cycles Signal 2026 and 2028 Peaks Near $225–235.

No Energy, No Food: Global System Breakdown Begins | Stanislav Krapivnik

What is developing is not an "energy crisis" in the conventional sense. It is a loss of physical supply on a scale that the system is not built to absorb. A large share of global oil and LNG capacity is now either offline or severely impaired, and that supply cannot be replaced quickly because the infrastructure behind it is slow, complex, and highly specialized. We are not dealing with something that can be fixed by price signals or short-term policy adjustments. If the energy is not there, it is not there.

 

» And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, 

and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine. « 

Book of Revelation 6:6.

Infrastructure Cannot Be Rebuilt Quickly

Energy systems run on heavy, custom-built equipment—pressure vessels, pipelines, processing units—that take months to manufacture and even longer to install. If those systems are damaged, they cannot be repaired overnight. In many cases they need to be scrapped and rebuild. If upstream production is affected—wells, wellheads, reservoirs—the timeline stretches further. Redrilling alone can take months per site, and that assumes stable conditions, available crews, and functioning logistics. None of that is guaranteed in a disrupted environment. Even under ideal circumstances, restoring lost capacity is measured in years. 

» You can tighten your own belt, but when you see your children wailing and crying from hunger and there’s nothing you can do, that’s different. People pick up pitchforks, light torches, go to the city halls, and start burning things. We are going to see a lot of that. « 

The System Is Trapped in a Feedback Loop

The bottleneck does not stop at the damaged infrastructure. The global ability to produce replacement equipment is limited and concentrated in a handful of countries, all of which have their own demand. Manufacturing itself depends on energy, especially natural gas. That creates a closed loop: you need energy to rebuild energy systems, but the energy is what you are short of. So the recovery process is constrained by the same shortage that caused the problem.

Europe Is Structurally Exposed

Europe is in the most exposed position because it depends on imported energy while maintaining a large industrial base that cannot function without it. When supply falls short, the system does not adjust smoothly. It is forced into rationing. Governments prioritize households and critical services, and industry is cut first. That leads to forced shutdowns—chemicals, steel, fertilizer, glass—sectors that do not operate intermittently. When they stop, they stop completely. Some will not restart, because the economics no longer work or the supply chains around them have already broken down. This is how industrial capacity is lost, not gradually but abruptly.

 

» The first major trend is deindustrialization, depopulation of cities, and return to farms. The second is remilitarization, and the third mercantilism. In the future there will be regional trade blocs that are controlled by a local hegemon. We are witnessing the shattering of the old global order, and the emergence of a much more splintered multipolar system. « — Jiang Xueqin, March 10, 2026.

Fertilizer Is the Critical Link

Fertilizer sits at the center of the next phase. It is produced from natural gas, and without sufficient gas, production drops. When fertilizer becomes scarce or too expensive, farmers reduce usage. That directly lowers yields. Modern agriculture is not resilient to this; it is built on chemical inputs. At the same time, fuel costs affect every stage of farming—planting, harvesting, transport. So both key inputs are constrained simultaneously. The result is straightforward: less food is produced.

Food Systems Tighten, Then Strain

Food systems do not break instantly, but they tighten. Prices rise first. Then availability becomes uneven. Some goods become scarce, others disappear temporarily. Europe can buffer this for a time through imports, but it is still drawing from a global pool that is under the same pressure. If multiple harvest cycles are affected, the shortages become more visible and harder to manage.

 

 "They've been beaten to shit!" Epstein's boyfriend keeps

babbling about Iran wanting a 'deal.' — March 26, 2026.

 

"All the goals of the war with Iran have been achieved." 

US VP tries his hand at market manipulation. — March 26, 2026.

» The Pentagon is developing bold military options that could deliver a so-called "final blow" to Iran—ranging from seizing strategic islands in the Strait of Hormuz to launching ground operations against nuclear facilities. With oil above $100 a barrel, thousands of additional US troops deploying to the region, and diplomatic talks hanging by a thread, the most dangerous escalation scenarios are now firmly on the table. « — David Oualaalou, March 27, 2026.

Economic Contraction Is Inevitable

As energy and food costs rise, the economy contracts. Industry shuts down, jobs are lost, and consumption falls because people can no longer afford what they used to. This is demand destruction in its simplest form. It is not a choice—it is forced by cost. That contraction feeds on itself: lower output, lower income, lower demand. Under sustained pressure, this moves beyond a standard recession into a deeper, longer-lasting downturn.

Social Stability Comes Under Pressure

The social effects follow directly. Energy and food are not optional. When access becomes strained, people react. Lower-income groups are hit first, but the pressure spreads. We begin to see unrest, political instability, and governments imposing stricter controls—rationing, restrictions, prioritization of supply. Those measures can manage the shortage, but they do not remove it.

This Is a Multi-Year Problem

The timeline is the critical constraint. Even if conditions stabilize, rebuilding lost energy capacity takes years. That means the sequence does not resolve quickly. Energy shortages persist, industrial capacity remains impaired, agricultural output declines, and economic pressure builds over multiple cycles.

The Sequence Is Direct

The progression is linear and difficult to avoid once the supply gap is large enough: insufficient energy leads to rationing; rationing leads to industrial shutdown; industrial shutdown removes fertilizer production; reduced fertilizer lowers food output; lower food output raises prices and creates shortages; rising costs force economic contraction; and sustained pressure produces social instability. This is not a theoretical chain of events. It is the direct consequence of a system losing access to the inputs it requires to function.

 

Reference:
The Duran (March 27, 2026) - Energy collapse, supply chains WRECKED w/ Stanislav Krapivnik. (video) 

Stanislav Krapivnik is a Russian born former US army officer, energy and industrial supply chain specialist with direct experience in oil and gas infrastructure. He held senior supply chain positions at Cameron and Halliburton, managing sourcing and logistics for critical field equipment across Eurasia. He later worked in EPC project execution with Tecnimont, supporting large-scale refinery and LNG developments. His background centers on the manufacturing timelines, logistics, and operational realities behind global energy systems.

 

See also:

Alex Krainer (March 27, 2026) - The Hormuz Crisis Will Trigger the Worst Economic Collapse in 100 Years. (video) 

Jiang Xueqin (March 10, 2026) - New World Order: Iran War Ends US Empire. (video) 

Alexander L. Chizhevsky (2025) - Mass Excitability during Solar Cycle 25 (2019–2030).

"No Longer an Eye for an Eye, but an Eye for a Head, Hand, and Foot" | IRGC

"If Trump hits Iran’s infrastructure, it will no longer be an eye for an eye, but an eye for a head, hand, and foot. America will be paralyzed." Mohsen Rezaee, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and top military adviser to  Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that any Trump-led strikes on Iranian infrastructure would trigger asymmetric retaliation, escalating beyond a proportional response. His remarks, aired on Iranian television today, followed the reported US postponement of attacks on Iranian power facilities.

 »  America will be paralyzed. «

 

Rezaee announced on Saturday that the war will continue until the US completely withdraws from the Persian Gulf and West Asia. He further declared that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to all vessels affiliated with the US, I$raHell, NATO, and G7 nations. Iran's blockade targets only those hostile countries, while vessels from China, Russia, Pakistan, India, Spain, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Japan, North Korea, South Africa, Thailand, Oman, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Kenya, and dozens of other friendly nations can pass through the strait. However, the strait’s closure to enemy states following the onset of U$raHell's airstrikes against Iran on February 28 has triggered what the International Energy Agency describes as the "largest oil supply crisis on record."

 »  For the war to end, the US must withdraw from the Gulf region. «

 

» There will be no ceasefire this time. The fate Hitler met in the snows
of Russia will await the Americans when they face our determination. «

 

Never stop your enemy from making mistakes.

 
The projected scale of radioactive contamination from the destruction of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant—as threatened by Trump—is severe. Bushehr, a Russian-built facility remains operational; however, the recent impact of a missile within 350 meters of the reactor compartment, indicates that the destruction is contemplated by U$raHell. A breach of the reactor’s containment would result in a nuclear catastrophe of exceptional scale and hazard.

»  Radioactive dispersion could extend to Oman and, across the Arabian Sea, reach southern India, with 

possible impacts on Sri Lanka and further spread toward Indonesia, Malaysia, and southern Thailand. « 

 
The reactor core contains approximately 72 tons of nuclear fuel, with more than 200 tons of spent fuel stored in adjacent pools. Destruction of the cooling systems would lead to core meltdown and a substantial release of radionuclides, including cesium-137, iodine-131, and strontium-90. While the containment structure is designed to localize part of such a release, prevailing winds would likely carry the radioactive plume southeast—directly toward the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
 

March 21, 2026: Retaliation for U$raHell's strike on Bushehr. Chaos erupts in Arad—home to
Dimona-linked nuclear personnel. Even Israeli sources admit that about 20 buildings were
destroyed, hundreds were killed and injured, and bodies are still buried under the rubble.

 

Epstein's boyfriend was absolutely duped by I$raHell and

his handler, Jared Kushner. Utter intelligence failure by the US.

 

» Israel needs to cease to exist. It is literally the cancer on the planet. «

Scott Ritter, March 22, 2026. 

 

» The world is witnessing an asymmetrical confrontation between two opposing sides, which has displayed the peak

of brutality as well as desperation on one side, and innocence along with heroic resistance on the other side. «
Qasem Soleimani, 2020.

 

» I say frankly to the American statesmen, who are now managing the genocide in Palestine: You will not be spared from this fire. The entire Palestine, from the sea to the river, belongs only to original Palestinians, including Christians, Jews and Muslims. «  

Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, 2023.  

 

In desert conditions, where there is minimal precipitation to wash contaminants from the soil and no significant river systems to transport suspended particles, cesium-137 would accumulate in salt flats and coastal zones with long-term persistence. For the UAE, the consequences would extend beyond economic disruption to potentially existential impacts. Subsequently, radioactive dispersion could extend to Oman and, across the Arabian Sea, reach southern India, with possible impacts on Sri Lanka and further spread toward Indonesia, Malaysia, and southern Thailand.

Crude Oil Long-Term Cycles Signal 2026 and 2028 Peaks Near $225–235

Branimir Vojcic identifies four dominant weekly cycles (103, 144, 181, and 289 weeks) in crude oil futures (CL), projecting major peaks in October 2026 and June 2028, and troughs in July 2027 and October 2029 aligning with Martin Armstrong’s warning of prices surging into 2028 due to geopolitical risks. 

 

The dominant 174 day cycle on the daily CL chart shows a cycle trough at the end of June.

 

 Four dominant weekly cycles indicate CL peaks in October 2026

and June 2028, with troughs expected in July 2027 and October 2029.

 

 

Yearly timing arrays for NY Crude Oil Futures.

Martin Armstrong’s cycle-based forecast for NY crude oil futures shows multiple volatility and panic cycle convergences in 2028 that could drive prices to $200–240 per barrel from current levels around $90. Drawing from his Socrates AI and Economic Confidence Model, which identify 8.6-year global turning points, Armstrong's timing array chart above overlays empirical, long-term, and direction-change cycles to pinpoint heightened risk periods for oil disruptions. 

 

» Wars rarely end on political will alone, and this conflict is constrained by a dense web
of strategic, economic and security pressures that neither side can easily escape. «

Socrates Update: Oil $225 to $235 into 2028.

 

Amid the ongoing US–Israeli war with Iran, which has already reduced regional output by over 6 million barrels per day and spiked prices by 9%, Armstrong’s prediction aligns with analysts’ upward revisions for sustained supply risks.

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (March 22, 2026) - Crude Oil (CL) Long-Term Cycles.
Martin Armstrong (March 22, 2026) - Yearly Timing Arrays for NY Crude Oil Futures.

Scott Bessent's Covert MAGA Strategy for Trump 2.0 | Lu QiYuan

Many people believe Trump 2.0 will be a 'peaceful' presidency, but I think they are mistaken. If war becomes the best option to overcome the US crisis, Donald Trump will not shy away from further conflict. Trump and his team are determined to maintain US dominance on the global stage as an empire—nothing has changed in that regard. While some may hope for the decline of the US empire, and I can understand that sentiment, the following isn't about whether the US should or shouldn't remain an empire. It's about how the Trump 2.0 administration is attempting to salvage the situation.

 

 Lu QiYuan, Geopolitical Economist.

Through Elon Musk, Trump will aim to reform and abolish much of the federal bureaucracy, including challenging some of the core interests of the military-industrial complex. If he succeeds, it could shatter the entire establishment system, including the massive oligarchy operating behind it, particularly in the pharmaceutical and military sectors. However, the question remains: Can Elon Musk and his new department, DOGE, accomplish this goal? Honestly, I don't think he can. To make America great again (MAGA), there are three things the United States and its leadership must avoid:

• The collapse of the US military: To prevent the US military from collapsing, significant reform is necessary. As it stands, the US military is only capable of operating at the battalion level and is no longer able to challenge a major power in large-scale conventional warfare. While US combat tactics and intelligence networks remain the best in the world, the country’s conventional forces—including the Army, Navy, and Air Force—are falling behind. The US still holds an upper hand over smaller or medium-sized countries, but in conventional warfare with a major power, the military would stand little chance. If this situation persists for another five years, the US will be unable to challenge even medium-sized nations. The military’s strength today lies in special forces, covert operations, and tactics like assassination—but in terms of large-scale warfare, as seen in Ukraine, the US is no longer capable of handling such conflicts. This is a serious issue. The US military cannot collapse; it is a basic requirement for maintaining a global hegemonic empire. Over time, parts of the military have been privatized, but these private forces are unlikely to match the capabilities of groups like Russia’s Wagner, and their loyalty could be questionable. This privatization has left the US military in a fragile state.
• The collapse of the US dollar: To stabilize the US dollar, the US must address its looming debt crisis and budget deficit. At $40 trillion in federal debt, the US is approaching a dangerous threshold—a breaking point after which the dollar could face a severe collapse. This wouldn't necessarily mean a collapse against other currencies, but rather a collapse in value relative to assets like Bitcoin, gold, or other key commodities. This is a critical issue that cannot be postponed. The US needs to begin addressing this problem by 2025 and show clear results by 2026.
• The collapse of US capital markets: The US capital market is a key pillar supporting the US empire. To prevent its collapse, the US must achieve a degree of reindustrialization. Currently, the capital market is one of the few remaining supports for the US dollar itself.

But let’s now turn to Scott Bessent, whom Trump has chosen as his Treasury Secretary. To me, Bessent is the real gladiator behind Trump 2.0, not Elon Musk. I believe Bessent is one of the most important members of Trump’s Cabinet, and his role will be crucial in keeping the US empire alive. So, when Scott Bessent enters the Trump Cabinet, we can be sure that Trump’s ultimate support still comes from the same old force, because Bessent is one of the most powerful champions of the US establishment deep state.

 

» Bessent is one of the most powerful champions of the US deep state. «

 

Bessent is extremely intelligent and capable. Many are confused about George Soros' financial attacks around the world, including his famous campaign against the British pound in 1997. The truth is, it wasn’t Soros who was the main architect behind that; it was Bessent. Soros became famous because of Bessent, not the other way around. Bessent’s capabilities go beyond what most people can imagine. He possesses a deep understanding of monetary, currency, and financial systems—and, more importantly, he has real-world combat experience in financial warfare. He is a genius. But like everyone, Bessent also has his flaws. People like him, who are highly capable and self-confident, often don’t hide their moves or intentions. He has outlined the following four main goals for the Trump 2.0 administration:

1. The US budget deficit must remain within 3%.  
2. The US GDP growth must exceed 3%.  
3. The US crude oil production must increase by 3 million barrels per day.

4. The US must turn Mexico into an economic vassal to replace China in their supply chain.

Let me offer my prediction: In terms of US debt control, Scott Bessent suggests that the federal deficit needs to be limited to around $1 trillion for fiscal year 2025. This is nearly an impossible task. According to my calculations, US debt will reach $40 trillion by the end of the third quarter of 2025. Achieving this goal would require drastic cuts to federal spending, and I don’t believe Elon Musk has the ability to accomplish that. The US federal government simply won’t be able to generate enough revenue in time to cover the deficit. If the goal is to increase state revenue, the only way would be to militarize the entire country—which is not only nearly impossible, but something I would strongly advise against.

As for the 3% annual GDP growth goal: I believe it is achievable. Given Bessent’s capabilities, I think he could reach this target by maintaining a capital accumulation rate above 6%.

 

» You know what I did? I left troops in Syria to take the oil. I took the oil. «
Donald Trump in a January 2020 interview on Fox News.

Now, let’s focus on the goal of increasing crude oil production by 3 million barrels per day in the US: This is one of the clearest indicators of Trump 2.0’s strategy. But why 3 million barrels? Why this specific number? This is not a random figure. Do you know how much OPEC is reducing its production? Exactly 3 million barrels. Saudi Arabia has cut production by 1 million barrels, Russia by nearly 1 million barrels, and the remaining reductions add up to roughly 3 million barrels. So, while OPEC is cutting production by 3 million barrels, the US is increasing its production by the same amount.

Do you think Scott Bessent wants oil prices to fall? To crash? Maybe down to $20 a barrel? Do you think the energy giants would be happy with that? No, they would be furious because the cost of production in the US is around $30 a barrel. Do you think Bessent hasn’t thought about this? Of course, he has. He likely predicts, just as I do, that oil prices could rise to $150 a barrel. That’s why I said Bessent shouldn’t have made these statements public—they act as a warning signal about a potential US military operation. It suggests that the US might be preparing to take action against Iran and, in doing so, potentially shut down the entire Persian Gulf. That’s why Bessent wants to increase US crude oil production by 3 million barrels.

 

 

» When I left in 2021, Venezuela was ready to collapse. We would have taken it over. 

We would have gotten all that oil. It would have been right next door. But now we're buying it. «

Donald Trump, June 10, 2023.

For those who don’t understand the logic behind this, there’s a fundamental principle of supply and demand in the oil market: When OPEC reduces production, it typically signals a slight decrease in demand. However, when supply drops dramatically—such as due to war—prices can skyrocket, often exponentially rather than linearly. The US, as one of the few remaining major oil producers, stands to benefit from a major conflict in the Persian Gulf. With countries like Russia and Venezuela under heavy sanctions, the US could potentially monopolize oil prices, using this leverage to strengthen the US dollar against other currencies. This is essentially the same strategy the US employed in the Ukraine conflict, where by provoking the war and cutting off Russia’s energy supply to Europe, the US launched an attack on both the euro and the ruble.

 

 » Mexico is gonna have to straighten it out really fast, or the answer is absolutely. «

Donald Trump, November 25, 2024.

Scott Bessent, normally an extremely capable strategist, shouldn’t have revealed these goals so early, as doing so gives countries like China the chance to prepare and implement countermeasures. His statements now serve as a warning signal to world leaders about what’s to come and suggest that it is less likely the US will directly provoke a proxy war targeting China. During the anticipated surge in oil prices, the US could successfully collapse the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound, helping Scott Bessent achieve his goal. 

 

 

» Trump suggested missile strikes into Mexico against drug cartels. «
Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense in the first Trump administration, May 6, 2022.

On top of that, there's an additional strategy: The US could swiftly vassalize Mexico, rapidly industrialize it, and use it to complete a North American internal economic circulation. This would be the only way the US could successfully reindustrialize. Essentially, the US would turn Mexico into an economic vassal, replacing China in its supply chain. In fact, the most direct and simplest way for the US to reindustrialize would be to militarily occupy Mexico and use it as a substitute for China in its economic system.

Reference:
Awakening Richard (December 6, 2024) - Top Chinese Economist Exposes US Secret Plan. (video)

 

See also:

Pepe Escobar (November 28, 2024) - Trump’s Coming War on BRICS and the Global South.

Dmitry Skvortsov (November 25, 2024) - Trump's Plan to Ruin China.

 Francisco José Fernández-Cruz Sequera (October 30, 2024) - Global MAGA-nomics.

 Serge Bernard (2015) - From Conquest to Affluence to Collapse: The 250 Year Empire Life Cycle.