Showing posts with label Geoeconomics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Geoeconomics. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Gold Rises Not with Inflation, But with Geopolitical Issues | Martin Armstrong

Comment by FD: Is he breaking the London metals dealers’ hold to suppress the gold price?
 

Reply by Martin Armstrong: I am tired of hearing the same constant nonsense about gold being intentionally suppressed by dealers, and that’s why it’s not at $10,000. I have traded against these people for years. Here is a clip from  The Forecaster with Barclay [Leib], who used to work for me years ago, talking about how he checked me out with Goldman Sachs before taking the job. 
 

Every manipulation these dealers ever pulled off was to the upside – not to suppress gold. They sell 10x more when people think gold is rising, not declining. This BS claim that they were suppressing gold to help the government keep inflation in check is total BS!  
 
[...] Gold rises NOT with inflation, but with geopolitical issues. Here was the National Debt Q2 1980 at $877.614bn. As of Q2 2024, it stood at $36,218bn. The debt has risen 40.29% since 1980. Gold hit $875 on January 21, 1980, in the cash market. If gold rose because of inflation or the debt level, then it should be $35,260 per ounce. The gold dealer could buy all of Wall Street with that price.
 
These people who make up these excuses [gold price manipulation] are unbelievable. Gold pays no interest, which is why they lease it out. Otherwise, it is a dead asset that brings in no income. It is a hedge against the government in times of uncertainty—that’s it. It is not a hedge against inflation or the size of the debt. That has been a great sales pitch, but that is it.

Applied MAGA-nomics: The Future of American Re-Industrialization

 
Bright Days Ahead.

 
 
Make America Great Again! 
 
 
  
Por ti, volaré. 
 
  
Espera, que llegaré.
 
  
 
Mi fin de trayecto eres tú.

Sunday, April 6, 2025

Germany’s Final Descent into Deindustrialization | Gerry Nolan

They blew it up. Literally. As if watching the Nord Stream pipelines get surgically terrorized by US led NATO operatives wasn’t humiliation enough, Berlin just greenlit the demolition of its own functioning coal-fired power plant in Ibbenbüren, Westphalia, in the middle of an energy crisis. No enemy army invaded. No external power sabotaged it. The German government did it to itself.

This isn’t an 'energy transition'. This is energy seppuku.
 
The very plant they blew up could’ve kept homes warm and industry humming. But instead, Germany’s ruling class, wagging their tail for Ursula von der Leyen’s green fantasies and Washington’s LNG extortion racket, chose deindustrialization. They’ve become the first major economy to voluntarily plunge into managed decline, while gas prices soar and steel furnaces go cold.

 
Demolition of  the Ibbenbüren Power Plant on April 6, 2025. The fully operational 838-megawatt coal
power plant was shut down in 2021 as part of Germany’s 'green' Energiewende (energy transition).

Let’s be clear: this is not about the environment. If it were, they wouldn’t be buying dirty coal and gas from abroad while gutting their own infrastructure. This is political obedience disguised as climate policy. The message? Fall in line with Atlanticist diktats, or watch your economy get dismantled, one pipeline, one smokestack at a time.

 
When ruthlessness, vassalage, and madness have a joyful rendezvous: Germany's final descent into deindustrialization and
US energy colony status is rejoiced by the CIA-directed German government's propaganda broadcaster Deutschlandfunk
"Former Coal Power Plant: Demolition in Ibbenbüren a Success."
 
The demolition of Ibbenbüren is more than symbolic. It’s the self-immolation of a once-proud industrial giant, now reduced to an energy vassal state begging for overpriced American LNG, locked into permanent austerity to subsidize a war they cannot win in Ukraine.

There is no love for Germans in this arrangement. Only contempt. And still, not a whisper about the real sabotage, the Nord Stream bombing, the economic war, the slow squeeze of sovereignty. Instead, Berlin celebrates its own collapse with photo ops and press releases. If this is “progress,” it’s the kind that ends in darkness, ration cards, and a long winter of regret.

 

In a conversation with Tucker Carlson on April 4, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brought up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. He recalled how US President Donald Trump had called the Europeans 'insane' for already sourcing most of their energy from Russia. 'Do they want to double that?' Bessent quoted Trump. 'And they did. And look what happened,' Bessent said. Carlson interjected, 'We blew it up.' Laughter erupted, and Bessent quipped, 'Somebody did. Probably Putin. Some Norwegian fisherman bumped into it, is what I read.'
 
 » Washington’s LNG extortion racket. «

Trump declared that the European Union must purchase $350 billion in US energy, primarily LNG and oil, to secure relief from his proposed tariffs. [...] Meeting Trump’s $350 billion goal would demand a fivefold increase, straining production, shipping, and EU willingness to pivot from suppliers like Norway and Qatar.

Please, It’s Too Much Winning. We Can't Take It Anymore, Mr. President!


 » We're gonna win so much that you may even get tired of winning! You’ll say:
"Please, please, it’s too much winning. We can't take it anymore, Mr. President. It’s too much!" 
And I’ll reply: "No, it isn’t! We have to keep winning, we have to win more! «

 
 
POTUS 45 | 47 

  
 
 » Thursday and Friday were 2 consecutive days in the S&P of more than -4.5% declines,
and the NASDAQ fell more than -5%. This only happened during huge crashes. What's next? «

 

»
There’s a fantastic research paper called “Buffett’s Alpha”, which analyzes the “factors” that Buffett tilts towards. Buffett is exposed to the Betting-Against-Beta and Quality-Minus-Junk factors, with 1.7x leverage. I highly recommend you read this. «
 
 
» Hurst Cycles: Short term cycles - 2-3 days higher for wave 4 and 20d high then another 2-3 days lower for wave 5
and 20d low will fit perfect. I think we have 20w high late March and now heading lower into 20w low. «
Krasi: Weekly Preview, April 5, 2025.
 

Friday, April 4, 2025

We Support Trump’s Tariffs. Here Is Why | Dimitri Simes Jr.

We support Trump’s tariffs. They are beneficial for humanity. They will accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire.
 
Economic Self-Sabotage: Tariffs raise costs for US consumers and businesses, resulting in higher prices for everything from cars to electronics. This impacts the average American's wallet, shrinking purchasing power and slowing growth. A weaker economy means less leverage on the world stage.

» Trump’s tariffs are beneficial for humanity. They will 
accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire. «

Alienating Allies: Imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, or 20% on the EU, doesn’t exactly convey a “team player” mentality. Allies are already retaliating—China’s counter-tariffs and Europe’s threats are just the beginning. When your friends abandon you, your influence diminishes rapidly.



The formula Trump's team used to calculate tariffs. 
 Brilliant minds at work: Tariffs = Trade Deficit/US Imports.

Dei
ndustrialized Reality
: The US is no longer the manufacturing giant it once was. Decades of offshoring have gutted its industrial base. Tariffs can’t protect industries that barely exist anymore. Steel mills and factories won’t magically return. Instead, higher costs will simply burden the service-heavy economy that remains.
 
Handing Rivals a Win: China is eager to capitalize. Tariffs push global trade away from the US, and Beijing is ready to fill the void, strengthening ties with Asia, Africa, South America, and even Europe. The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals like China and Russia gain ground.
 
 » The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals gain ground. «

Dol
lar’s Status at Risk
: The US dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency relies on trust and trade. Tariffs breed chaos, retaliation, and currency wars, potentially leading to a push by BRICS nations to abandon the dollar. If this happens, America’s financial power could crumble—especially considering the historically high price of gold.
 
 » History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these. «

Ove
rreach and Collapse
: Empires fall when they overextend. Tariffs are a gamble; Trump is betting on short-term gains, but the long-term consequences could be a fractured trade system and a US too weakened to lead. History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these.
 
Trump’s tariffs might seem like a bold move to “Make America Great Again,” but they could end up being a wrecking ball to its global influence. The empire is already on shaky ground, and tariffs could be the final push that sends it crashing down.

 
  


  
»
The problem is that Trump will be blamed for the recession/depression
the world is headed into, which will not bottom until August 25th, 2028. «
 
 
 » They’ve all been living in our house. Driving our car. They open our fridge, eat our food. 
They’ve taken advantage of us. You have to pay. « Unless you are Israel.
US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, April 6, 2025.

Thursday, April 3, 2025

Medvedev Watching the River Flow


» As it is, Russia barely does any trade with the US and EU, nearly all of it is under sanctions. Yet, our economy is growing 3% now. 
We’ll take the advice of Lao Tzu and sit by the river, waiting for the body of the enemy to float by.
The decaying corpse of the EU economy. «
 

A significant number of European politicians have succumbed to acute Russomania (also known as Russophobia)—a psychiatric disorder stemming from a bipolar affective exaggeration of Russia’s influence on the lives of Europe and Europeans. The condition typically alternates between two distinct phases: manic and depressive.

The manic stage is characterized by motor agitation, aggressiveness, and a tendency to provoke and attack stronger opponents without assessing one’s actual capabilities against the target of the attack. Sometimes, it ends in uncontrolled urination and defecation. Examples of patients in the manic stage include Macron, Starmer, Stubb, and several other European politicians.
 
From Third Reich to European Union.

The depressive phase is characterized by melancholy, emotional and physical fatigue, eating disorders, hypochondria, and self-harm. A patient in the depressive stage of Russomania may harm themselves, including self-sterilization (self-castration). At present, this stage is more commonly observed in women (Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Kallas) or in hermaphrodites suffering from drug addiction (patients Zelensky, Saakashvili).

Treatment is symptomatic. Traditional medications are generally ineffective. The best therapeutic effect has been observed with the combined use of strong sedative drugs such as "Kalibr," "Onyx," "Iskander," and the powerful multi-component tranquilizer "Oreshnik." In particularly severe cases, nuclear neuroleptics such as "Yars" and "Sarmat" must be used.
 
 

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Red Alert: Is the US Economy Headed for a Devastating Recession?

1. Stock Markets are facing significant uncertainty. US stocks ended last week with a 2% decline. Goldman Sachs has assigned a 35% chance of a US recession within the next 12 months. The firm has also officially reduced its S&P 500 forecasts, citing the impact of higher tariffs and increasing recession risks.


2. The Trade Deficit reached unprecedented levels in February, ballooning to $147.9 billion. January's revised deficit also soared to $153.3 billion. This surge is primarily due to a significant increase in imports of industrial supplies, such as oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), gold, and steel, as producers prepare for an extended trade war.


3. The financial storm is intensifying. Since January 31st, the S&P 500 and the US Dollar Index have dropped by 6.5% and 3.5%, respectively. This is a rare occurrence, as the last time both stocks and the Dollar fell in tandem by such a significant margin was in 2008.


4. The US Stock Market is experiencing historically unprecedented concentration levels, surpassing even the intense frenzy of the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. The top 10 stocks now make up 36% of the S&P 500, approaching an all-time high.


5. Gold is gaining attention as a safe haven. According to Bank of America, 58% of fund managers believe gold performs best during a trade war. Over the past 12 months, $7 trillion has been added to gold's market capitalization, signaling significant economic uncertainty.


6. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued a concerning forecast regarding the US debt. Federal deficits are expected to rise from 6.2% of GDP in 2025 to 7.3% by 2055. Public debt is projected to surge dramatically, growing from 100% of GDP in 2025 to a staggering 156% by 2055.


7. The Yield Curve typically shows higher yields on long-term US bonds compared to short-term bonds, reflecting the greater risk associated with lending money over a longer period. However, the US is currently experiencing an inversion of the curve, a historical pattern that has reliably preceded past recessions.


8. By February 2025, the U3 Unemployment Rate is projected to be 4.1%, while the U6 unemployment rate is expected to be 8.0%. Peter Schiff argues that the U3 rate appears low because it doesn't account for millions of unemployed individuals who aren't included in the official statistics. According to him, the US systematically hides the true extent of unemployment.


9. If Trump were to escalate with Tariffs, the impact on complex supply chains could be significant. Cars, for example, could see an additional $12,200 in costs due to tariffs, particularly those with parts from Canada or Mexico, which would face the steepest increases. Additionally, domestically produced goods that rely on imported materials would incur hidden tariff costs, further adding to the economic burden.


 

»
China is crushing the US in the technological innovation race. China’s economic model is superior to America’s. Chinese companies reinvest their profits into expanding production, employment, research, and development, while US companies reinvest their profits into stock buybacks. «Prof. Michael Hudson, November 21, 2024.
 

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

Are Metals Kicking Off the Next Commodity Supercycle? | Alex Krainer

Market analysts tend to attribute great significance to the price of copper as an important leading economic indicator: if demand for copper is rising, the economy is growing (and vice versa). For that reason, they pay close attention to what "Dr. Copper" is saying. But last week, Gold also made new all time highs at around $3,050/oz. Silver rallied quite strongly as well, but it's still trading well below its ATH price, which was just shy of $50/tr.oz. in April of 2011. Here is what the whole COMEX metals complex looks like:
 
 COMEX Metals Complex (January 01, 2021 = 100)
 
There has been an overall rising trend in the metals, building gradually from late 2023. However, platinum barely moved thus far and palladium actually dropped by more than half in the last four years. The rise in Gold, Silver and Copper may be driven by inflation fears rather than economic growth. Those three metals are investors' preferred inflation hedges. Inflation hedging demand is likely what's behind the upward pressure on prices. 
 
Europe's great rearmament frenzy and the hundreds of billions of euros being allocated for it might end up adding more upward pressure to prices of industrial metals, as well as energy. In all, this will end up giving a strong boost to commodity price inflation in what could end up being a self-reinforcing cycle, triggering the next leg in the widely anticipated commodity supercycle.

US Commodity Price Index (1795 to Present)
with Major Inflation Peaks (Red Dots) & Major Inflation Troughs (Blue Dots).
Shown as 10 Year Rolling Compound Growth Rate with Polynomial Trend at Tops & Bottoms.

Long commodity cycles suggest that currency debasement and inflation may peak in the early 2040s. A commodity supercycle could reach its peak by 2045 (indicated by the last red dot), following a long cycle wave that spans approximately 55 years, with each cycle growing 5 years longer over the past 200 years. This pattern implies that the next peak will occur around 2045, 65 years after the peak in 1980.

None of this will happen overnight: the commodity supercycle is expected to span a period of 10 to 25 years, and it will be marked with many price rallies, followed by corrections and consolidations in that time. It should therefore be navigated with due caution and an iron discipline.

 

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Dumb & Dumber: US Senate Hearing on National Security | Judge Napolitano

 Tulsi Gabbard, National Intelligence Director & John Ratcliffe, CIA Director.
 
"God of all life, we seek Your guidance in a world filled with challenges. Today, prepare the members of this body [the US Senate Hearing on National Security] for the difficult work of solving life's riddles. Grant them the wisdom to find common ground and accomplish Your will in our nation and the world. Teach them to give of themselves for the good of others. Lord, amen."
 
Once upon a time, a transactional real estate shyster known as The Rabbi, a hillbilly, a crusader, a tattletale, a muy pendejo, and an aloha princess—each very ambitious and cunning—embarked on a journey to change the world forever. One day, they ...
 
 


» I often think about what has happened to the concept of truth in our society. People lie constantly, deceive endlessly, and spin narratives all the time. It has become so difficult to know what to believe anymore. This is a tragic situation. And by the way, this is most apparent when it comes to Israel. There, you are often not even allowed to discuss how Israel behaves, or how the Israeli issue relates to other issues. It’s simply dismissed, and as a result, people end up speaking about it in vague, indirect ways. The level of dishonesty in our society is truly staggering.

» The US is killing without purpose. We decide to attack the Houthis, and we do it.
We don’t care about the Constitution, the law, or the lives of civilians.
«
 
We have been, and continue to be, complicit in supporting a genocide in Gaza since late 2023. If you look at our actions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria, the number of people—civilians, including women, children, and the elderly—who have died is staggering. And when you look at how Israel behaves in the Middle East today, it's clear they are launching attacks in countries all around the region. And we support it. No one protests. They decide to attack southern Lebanon, and they do. They decide to attack Syria, and they do. We decide to attack the Houthis, and we do. We don’t care about the Constitution, the law, or the lives of civilians. This is the point we've reached. « John J. Mearsheimer, March 27, 2025.
 
See also: