Showing posts with label Deindustrialization. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Deindustrialization. Show all posts

Thursday, April 23, 2026

Suicide by a Thousand Cuts: EU Migrant Population Hits Record 64.2 Million

Immigration to the European Union has surged to historically high levels, reaching a total of 64.2 million foreign-born residents in 2025. According to the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration, which utilizes Eurostat and UNHCR data, this represents a dramatic climb from the 40 million recorded in 2010 and a year-over-year increase of 2.1 million people. 
 
"Agents of Deveolpment," preparing for a crossing from the French coast toward the UK. 

To put this in perspective, approximately one in seven people residing in the European Union was born in a country other than the one where they currently live. The growth trend over the last 15 years highlights a significant shift in the bloc's composition.
 
 
Number of individuals born outside their country of residence
(including those with unknown birth country) in the EU, 2010-2025
 (excluding Portugal due to missing data).

 Number of immigrants in EU countries with the largest immigrant populations, 2010-2025.
 
Number of individuals born outside their country of residence in the EU, 2010-2025.
 
In 2010, the foreign-born population represented approximately 9% of the total EU population; by 2025, that share has risen to 14.25%. This presence is characterized by heavy geographic concentration, particularly in nations like Germany, where nearly 18 million foreign-born residents out of a total population of 83.6 million bring the local percentage to approximately 21.5%. 

Population Division, UN DESA, New York, March 21, 2000.
 
Resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly on the "Global Compact for Safe, 
Orderly and Regular Migration," A/RES/73/195, Marrakesh, Morocco, December 19, 2018
 
» 
The 2030 Agenda recognizes... migrant women, men and children... as agents of development. « 
 
This shift also carries a distinct demographic impact. While the median age of the broader EU population reached 44.9 years in early 2025, 72% of the foreign-born group in Germany is of working age, contrasting sharply with the aging domestic profile of the bloc. These figures demonstrate that migration is not just increasing in volume, but is fundamentally reshaping the labor and age structures of the Union's largest economies.

Immigrant Population in 2025 by EU country (% of total population).
 
The Geography of Concentration
A small number of countries handle the vast majority of arrivals and residency stocks. Germany continues to be the primary destination, hosting nearly 18 million foreign-born residents, of whom 72% are of working age. Meanwhile, Spain has emerged as the leader in recent growth, adding 700,000 residents in a single year—roughly one-third of the entire EU’s annual increase—bringing its total foreign-born population to 9.5 million (20%). While Germany and Spain account for nearly half of the total increase, smaller states like Luxembourg, Malta, and Cyprus are experiencing the most significant pressure relative to their population size.
 
Ranking of EU27 countries by total migrant inflows, 2024.
 
Ranking of EU27 countries by total migrant inflows per 1,000 inhabitants, 2024. 
 
Asylum applications follow a similarly concentrated pattern, with four nations receiving nearly three-quarters of all claims. Spain leads the applications with 141,000, drawing heavily from Latin America, followed by Italy with 127,000 and France with 116,000, both of which exhibit diverse source-country patterns. Germany received 113,000 applications, primarily from conflict-driven regions such as Syria and Afghanistan. While larger nations take the most applications in absolute terms, smaller countries often bear a greater burden relative to their population.
 
Countries of Origin of First-Instance Asylum Applicants, 2025.

 
Socio-Economic Strain and the Housing Crisis
As migration reaches these new peaks, official data points to a severe mounting strain on living conditions across the bloc. In 2024, 8.2% of EU residents were considered overburdened by housing costs, spending at least 40% of their disposable income on rent or mortgages. The crisis is particularly acute for the youth, with nearly one in ten people aged 15 to 29 facing a similar housing cost burden. Furthermore, 16.9% of the population now lives in overcrowded households, and 9.2% are unable to adequately heat their homes.
Refugees as a Share of Total Population, 2025: Germany hosts the most (≈2.7 million), more than double Poland (≈1 million), followed by France (≈751,000), Spain (≈471,000), and Czechia (≈381,000). Italy (≈314,000), Austria (≈281,000), and the Netherlands (≈263,000), while most others have fewer than 200,000. Totals include refugees, people in refugee-like situations, and displaced persons from Ukraine under temporary protection.
Recently, European Council President Antonio Costa has emphasized that housing affordability is now "at the core of people's disillusionment with democratic institutions." Spot on, Mr. Costa... these economic pressures, combined with concerns over public security, services, and the cost of living, have fueled the rise in anti-immigration sentiment across EU member states and the UK. While the EU allocates approximately 2% of its seven-year budget to migration and "border management," the bulk of the financial and social costs are currently borne by individual national governments. 
 
billion—more than twice the German federal government's total annual budget.
 
Now just imagine—due to a prolonged general economic crisis and decline—what will happen once national administrations are no longer able to milk their native populations for hundreds of billions of euros and can no longer redistribute enough protection money to millions of formerly pampered, predominantly male, military-age "refugees" and "migrants" from dozens of Muslim countries destroyed by U$raHell, UK, NATO, and the very EU… they may suddenly start helping themselves otherwise.
 
Most urgent EU priority instead: Drone production and another €90 billion "loan" for Ukraine.

Geopolitical Tensions and 'Defense' Realities
The official EU migration narrative is now inextricably linked to Russia... Russia's support of Syrian "dictator" Assad, the Libyan "Gaddafi regime," and "Putin's unprovoked aggression" against Ukraine. The EU currently hosts approximately 4.35 million Ukrainian nationals, with Germany serving as the largest host at over one million people. However, the political climate is shifting as domestic hospitality begins to wane. Berlin and Kyiv are now coordinating efforts to facilitate the return of military-age Ukrainian men to their home country's meat grinder as losses mount at the front.
 
Though this be madness, yet there is method in’t.

Simultaneously, the EU—getting ready for "war with Russia by 2030"—is pivoting toward a more aggressive "defense" posture. Through the recently launched €800 billion EU “ReArm Europe / Readiness 2030” plan, member states are significantly increasing "defense spending" to counter perceived Russian aggression. 
 
 Militarism, war, deindustrialization, mass-migration, inflation, debt, impoverishment,
corruption, energy and food shortages: All ingredients in place for a perfect storm in the EU.
 
Moscow has dismissed these security concerns as "nonsense," suggesting that EU governments are using the "threat narrative" to distract their citizens from internal domestic failures and the growing complexities of their deliberately self-fabricated "Agenda 2030" replacement migration crisis. 
 See also:

Monday, March 30, 2026

JPMorgan Maps and Times the Global Oil Supply Shockwave | Really?

JPMorgan commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva released a report on March 26, 2026 (no complete official  public version available) that outlines how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a progressive, region-by-region oil supply shock. As of March 30, 2026, this analysis remains the authoritative reference: 
 
East Asia and Asia-Pacific deplete first, Africa, Europe, and the Americas follow.

Gradual Inventory Depletion Crisis (according to JPM)
The global oil supply system has shifted from an abrupt flow disruption to a gradual inventory depletion crisis, with timing emerging as the central driver of economic impact. The report’s core projections—an initial gross supply shock of approximately 16 million barrels (MMbbl) per day tapering to around 10 MMbbl per day by April—continue to align with current developments.
 
Estimated Dependency on Persian Gulf / West Asia Oil Imports (2025–2026). 

Nature and Progression of the Supply Shock (according to JPM)
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has stayed more than 95% below normal levels since the last regular commercial tanker departed on February 28, 2026. The shockwave propagates from east to west, governed by maritime distances from the Persian Gulf. Asia, which normally receives over 80% of the crude oil transiting the Strait, faces the earliest and most severe effects. Pre-closure shipments have been exhausted, resulting in rapid inventory depletion across the region. India experienced the initial impact, followed by Northeast Asian importers including China, Japan, and South Korea.
 
The Strait of Hormuz is not closed: On March 29, Dimitri Lascaris boarded an Iranian civilian vessel and toured the Strait of Hormuz for approximately one hour. There, he observed and recorded the presence of nearly 100 oil tankers and cargo ships. By all indications, commercial vessels continue to transit the Strait in significant numbers, but they now do so on terms dictated by the Islamic Republic. 
Southeast-Asia, Asia-Pacific, and Africa (according to JPM)
Southeast Asian oil demand is projected to contract by roughly 300,000 barrels per day in April. Losses could exceed 2 MMbbl per day in May and approach 3 MMbbl per day by June if strategic reserve releases remain limited to individual national efforts. Africa is expected to encounter visible impacts in early April, with potential oil demand losses reaching 250,000 barrels per day should inventories continue to decline.
 
The Philippines declared a national energy emergency. 
 
Asia-Pacific Emergency Measures and Rationing (according to JPM)
Several Asia-Pacific governments have implemented structured conservation and demand-management policies. The Philippines (population 117 million) declared a national energy emergency on March 24, 2026 through Executive Order No. 110 signed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Department of Energy has directed power-sector participants to adopt immediate fuel-conservation protocols, prudent load management, and generation-schedule adjustments. A four-day work week has been introduced for many government offices, accompanied by encouragement of remote work and reduced non-essential travel. Fuel imports from alternative sources, including Russian crude under temporary US sanctions waivers, have been authorized. 
 
Australia (27M) holds approximately 36 days of petrol stocks, 34 days of diesel, and 32 days of jet-fuel inventories (figures from early March, now further drawn down). Nationwide rationing has not been enacted, though the government has temporarily eased fuel-quality standards for 60 days to redirect roughly 100 million liters of export-grade fuel into the domestic market each month. Service stations in some areas have introduced voluntary purchase caps, and national contingency planning for standardized stock reporting and potential future rationing is advancing. 

Australia is one of the world’s largest energy exporters—the third-largest exporter of LNG and the leading seaborne supplier of thermal and metallurgical coal. Rumor has it their degenerate eugenicist government now aims for a COVID-style "energy lockdown"—never letting a fine crisis go to waste. Like them, the European Commission is fanatically in line with the UN self-extinction Agenda 2030, always eager and ready to strangle its people beyond imagination.
South Korea (51M) has imposed a five-month ban on naphtha exports, effective March 27, 2026, to prioritize domestic petrochemical and refining needs. China has restricted overseas shipments of refined fuels to preserve domestic inventories. Approximately 5% of ethylene production capacity in Japan, South Korea, and China has shut down due to feedstock shortages.

Impacts on Europe and North America (according to JPM)
Europe (450M) is projected to face pressure by mid-April, primarily through elevated costs and intensified competition for non-Gulf supplies rather than outright physical shortages. Natural-gas prices on the continent have risen to 55–58 euros per megawatt-hour, while airlines confront severe pressure from surging jet-fuel expenses. Slovenia has become the first European Union member to impose explicit fuel rationing, limiting private motorists to 50 liters per day.
 
A dull face, yet impeccably groomed—vain, deeply self-important, and convinced he has control over everyone and 
everything: European Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, the quintessential apparatchik, an unshakable pillar of the regime.
Dozens of loaded oil tankers have been idling off the coasts of Belgium and the Netherlands for weeks. Port workers and tanker crews report that the EU Commission is preventing them from entering ports to unload their cargo. An EU oil shortage is being created to justify and bring about an "energy lockdown." These are the very same ilk who implemented the COVID‑19 plandemic script, who seize farmers' lands for "climate protection," who feed the meat grinder in Ukraine, who keep their mouths shut and bow down after the US blows up Europe's main pipelines with Russia, who wail over Greenland, and who cheer the US takeover of Venezuela — the very same Zionist perverts who have financed and participated in U$raHell's genocides and wars ever since — including the ongoing one against Iran.
North America appears latest in the timeline, with most Gulf shipments expected to cease arriving around April 15, 2026. The US (342M) is unlikely to experience direct physical shortages owing to its robust domestic production. The impact will manifest mainly through rising fuel prices and refined-product market dislocations. West Texas Intermediate crude has increased more than 40% in March and continues to trade approximately 10 dollars below Brent.
 
Mitigation Efforts and Global Responses (according to JPM)
Gulf producers are expanding alternative export routes to mitigate the disruption. Saudi Arabia has increased flows through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu from 0.8 to 3.3 MMbbl per day, with potential to reach 4.7 MMbbl per day by April. The United Arab Emirates has raised throughput on its Fujairah bypass pipeline from 1.1 to 1.6 MMbbl per day. These workarounds replace only a fraction of the lost capacity.
 
A Russian tanker with 650,000 barrels of Urals crude arrived in Cuba (11M) today despite
the US genocidal blockade of the island, providing limited relief for roughly 9–10 days.
 
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has coordinated the release of 400 MMbbl from strategic reserves across its 32 member nations—the largest such operation in the agency’s history—with the US contributing nearly half from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has described the current disruption as the greatest threat to global energy security on record.
 
Geopolitical and Market Outlook
In Asia the energy supply crisis has strained aviation, agriculture, construction, and heavy transport sectors, prompting emergency measures. Geopolitically, the disruption has enhanced the attractiveness of Russian overland export corridors and reinforced the strategic position of US LNG supplies in both Asian and European markets.
Russian Chechen combat units officially declare they will deploy to Iran to fight alongside Iranian forces if the US launches a ground invasion. They are framing it as a sacred Jihad against US power. The conflict is expanding globally.
As of March 30, 2026, Iran maintains a selective policy on the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed to vessels linked to U$raHell and their active allies. Tehran has explicitly permitted safe passage for ships from countries it considers "friendly" or non-hostile — China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iraq, and Bangladesh. Malaysia and Thailand have benefited on a case-by-case basis, sometimes involving prior diplomatic contact or a transit fee.
 
► Japan has declined to commit naval or military forces to US–Israeli operations, and is offered safe passage through the Strait.
► India has successfully negotiated transit for Indian-flagged LPG carriers and other vessels, occasionally escorted by the Indian Navy in the Gulf of Oman. 
► Pakistan has secured passage for specific tankers, and Iran has agreed to allow up to 20 additional Pakistani-flagged ships, with two vessels crossing daily.
► China has engaged in talks for safe passage of crude and LNG vessels, though some Chinese-linked ships have turned back due to practical risks despite assurances. 
► Bangladesh has been included in Iran’s list of friendly countries.
► Taiwan is a nation hostile to Iran, and has mitigated the crisis with oil reserves and secured LNG supplies through April. Short-term actions include accelerated procurement of alternative LNG from the US and Australia. Contingency plans involve emergency spot-market purchases and mutual assistance discussions with partners such as Japan and South Korea. 
► South Korea and Vietnam have conducted diplomatic outreach to Iran for safe passage, receiving positive indications from Tehran, though broad arrangements remain limited or pending. 
► The Philippines, not hostile to Iran, but one of the most vulnerable nations, has focused primarily on declaring a national energy emergency, implementing conservation measures, and sourcing Russian crude under temporary US sanctions waivers rather than pursuing high-profile direct diplomacy with Iran, although domestic calls for such talks have emerged. 
 
Continuously Updated Supply Chain Disruptions Map.
 
On March 26, 2026, Epstein's boyfriend announced a 10-day extension of the pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, extending the deadline to April 6. He cited an Iranian request for negotiations, noting that Iran had permitted "10 tankers to pass through the Strait as a goodwill gesture;" Iranian officials, however, denied that any talks were under way.
 
Iran continues to mock Epstein’s boyfriend...
 
...White House bimbo Karoline Leavitt insists 'negotiations'
are ongoing and Iran is lying by stating otherwise... 

...and as Iran and Asia bear the brunt of both immediate and long-term harm, the U$raHell
war machine puppeteers once again emerge as the leading and most immediate profiteers.
It’s about time to sink some aircraft carriers... 
   
Brent crude, which closed at $108.01 per barrel on March 27, now trades in the $111–115 range as of March 30, 2026. Macquarie Group has assigned a 40% probability to the conflict extending through June, a scenario that could drive Brent above $200 per barrel and US retail gasoline prices to approximately $7 per gallon. Wood Mackenzie has warned that a sustained Brent average of $125 per barrel throughout 2026 would be sufficient to trigger a global recession. 
 
Iran’s "reverse indicator" trading advice continues to play out in real-time:
At 4:12 PM ET on Sunday, March 29, Iran's Speaker of the Parliament said US pre-market news is
a "reverse indicator";  if they "dump" the market, then "go long," and if they "pump it, short it."
  

See
also:

Friday, March 27, 2026

No Energy, No Food: Global System Breakdown Begins | Stanislav Krapivnik

What is developing is not an "energy crisis" in the conventional sense. It is a loss of physical supply on a scale that the system is not built to absorb. A large share of global oil and LNG capacity is now either offline or severely impaired, and that supply cannot be replaced quickly because the infrastructure behind it is slow, complex, and highly specialized. We are not dealing with something that can be fixed by price signals or short-term policy adjustments. If the energy is not there, it is not there.
 
Los Cuatro Jinetes del Apocalipsis, símbolos de conquista, guerra, hambre y muerte.—Gustave Doré, 1866.
» 
And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, 
and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine. « 

Infrastructure Cannot Be Rebuilt Quickly
Energy systems run on heavy, custom-built equipment—pressure vessels, pipelines, processing units—that take months to manufacture and even longer to install. If those systems are damaged, they cannot be repaired overnight. In many cases they need to be scrapped and rebuild. If upstream production is affected—wells, wellheads, reservoirs—the timeline stretches further. Redrilling alone can take months per site, and that assumes stable conditions, available crews, and functioning logistics. None of that is guaranteed in a disrupted environment. Even under ideal circumstances, restoring lost capacity is measured in years. 

»
You can tighten your own belt, but when you see your children wailing and crying from hunger and there’s nothing you can do, that’s different. People pick up pitchforks, light torches, go to the city halls, and start burning things. We are going to see a lot of that. « 
The System Is Trapped in a Feedback Loop
The bottleneck does not stop at the damaged infrastructure. The global ability to produce replacement equipment is limited and concentrated in a handful of countries, all of which have their own demand. Manufacturing itself depends on energy, especially natural gas. That creates a closed loop: you need energy to rebuild energy systems, but the energy is what you are short of. So the recovery process is constrained by the same shortage that caused the problem.

Europe Is Structurally Exposed
Europe is in the most exposed position because it depends on imported energy while maintaining a large industrial base that cannot function without it. When supply falls short, the system does not adjust smoothly. It is forced into rationing. Governments prioritize households and critical services, and industry is cut first. That leads to forced shutdowns—chemicals, steel, fertilizer, glass—sectors that do not operate intermittently. When they stop, they stop completely. Some will not restart, because the economics no longer work or the supply chains around them have already broken down. This is how industrial capacity is lost, not gradually but abruptly.
 
» The first major trend is deindustrialization, depopulation of cities, and return to farms. The second is remilitarization, and the third mercantilism. In the future there will be regional trade blocs that are controlled by a local hegemon. We are witnessing the shattering of the old global order, and the emergence of a much more splintered multipolar system. « — Jiang Xueqin, March 10, 2026.
Fertilizer Is the Critical Link
Fertilizer sits at the center of the next phase. It is produced from natural gas, and without sufficient gas, production drops. When fertilizer becomes scarce or too expensive, farmers reduce usage. That directly lowers yields. Modern agriculture is not resilient to this; it is built on chemical inputs. At the same time, fuel costs affect every stage of farming—planting, harvesting, transport. So both key inputs are constrained simultaneously. The result is straightforward: less food is produced.

Food Systems Tighten, Then Strain
Food systems do not break instantly, but they tighten. Prices rise first. Then availability becomes uneven. Some goods become scarce, others disappear temporarily. Europe can buffer this for a time through imports, but it is still drawing from a global pool that is under the same pressure. If multiple harvest cycles are affected, the shortages become more visible and harder to manage.
 
 "They've been beaten to shit!" Epstein's boyfriend keeps
babbling about Iran wanting a 'deal.' — March 26, 2026.
 
"All the goals of the war with Iran have been achieved." 
US VP tries his hand at market manipulation. — March 26, 2026.

» The Pentagon is developing bold military options that could deliver a so-called "final blow" to Iran—ranging from seizing strategic islands in the Strait of Hormuz to launching ground operations against nuclear facilities. With oil above $100 a barrel, thousands of additional US troops deploying to the region, and diplomatic talks hanging by a thread, the most dangerous escalation scenarios are now firmly on the table. « — David Oualaalou, March 27, 2026.
Economic Contraction Is Inevitable
As energy and food costs rise, the economy contracts. Industry shuts down, jobs are lost, and consumption falls because people can no longer afford what they used to. This is demand destruction in its simplest form. It is not a choice—it is forced by cost. That contraction feeds on itself: lower output, lower income, lower demand. Under sustained pressure, this moves beyond a standard recession into a deeper, longer-lasting downturn.

Social Stability Comes Under Pressure
The social effects follow directly. Energy and food are not optional. When access becomes strained, people react. Lower-income groups are hit first, but the pressure spreads. We begin to see unrest, political instability, and governments imposing stricter controls—rationing, restrictions, prioritization of supply. Those measures can manage the shortage, but they do not remove it.

This Is a Multi-Year Problem
The timeline is the critical constraint. Even if conditions stabilize, rebuilding lost energy capacity takes years. That means the sequence does not resolve quickly. Energy shortages persist, industrial capacity remains impaired, agricultural output declines, and economic pressure builds over multiple cycles.

The Sequence Is Direct
The progression is linear and difficult to avoid once the supply gap is large enough: insufficient energy leads to rationing; rationing leads to industrial shutdown; industrial shutdown removes fertilizer production; reduced fertilizer lowers food output; lower food output raises prices and creates shortages; rising costs force economic contraction; and sustained pressure produces social instability. This is not a theoretical chain of events. It is the direct consequence of a system losing access to the inputs it requires to function.
 
Stanislav Krapivnik is a Russian born former US army officer, energy and industrial supply chain specialist with direct experience in oil and gas infrastructure. He held senior supply chain positions at Cameron and Halliburton, managing sourcing and logistics for critical field equipment across Eurasia. He later worked in EPC project execution with Tecnimont, supporting large-scale refinery and LNG developments. His background centers on the manufacturing timelines, logistics, and operational realities behind global energy systems.