US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025 | Larry Williams

Current market cycles suggest near-term weakness across the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones. The same pattern that accurately forecasted last April’s rally now points to a pullback. 

 

» Expect weakness in Bitcoin, gold, and stocks in the near term. Not a bear market yet, 

but caution is warranted. Cycles and fundamentals together suggest a pullback is ahead. «

 

The 255-day S&P cycle, which has consistently identified past buy and sell points, indicates we are in a weak phase lasting into spring 2026, with the next major buying opportunity around the turn of the year.

 

 » The S&P has a 255-day cycle. Historically, it has nailed buy and sell points 

remarkably well. Right now, we are in the weak part of that cycle. «

This weakness is not expected to trigger a crash, but rather a corrective phase after a strong run, followed by a probable year-end rally. The 2025 forecast of a bullish trend and March buying opportunity proved accurate; the 2026 outlook projects early weakness, then a recovery.

Fundamentally, stocks are overvalued relative to bonds and gold, historically a precursor to declines. This reinforces caution, even without technical confirmation. 

 

» Yes, maybe some weakness—but nothing like 1929 or 1970. 

So, I wouldn’t jump to Dalio’s conclusions. «

Ray Dalio has warned of an 80-year cycle implying severe turmoil. However, analysis of past instances (1863, 1946) shows mostly sideways markets rather than major collapses. The cycle may suggest weakness but not systemic crisis.

In summary: expect a corrective phase in equities, with parallel declines in gold and Bitcoin, but no imminent bear market. Year-end rally potential remains, and cycles continue to provide reliable foresight.

Reference:
Larry Williams (September 24, 2025)  - Old Dogs, New Tricks: Bitcoin and Gold, and what's next for stocks. (video)

 17:19 - NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones  

20:33 - Stocks Overvalued and 80 Year Cycle?

 

The 13-Week Cycle in Stocks.
 

See also:

Larry Williams (December 24, 2024) - 2025 US Stock Market Outlook: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

 Ray Dalio (April 7, 2025) - Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs.

August 2025 Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Indexes | Jeff Hirsch

August was the best DJIA month from 1901–1951, driven by agriculture and farming. Since 1988, however, it has become the worst month for DJIA and Russell 2000, and the second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000, with average returns from +0.1% (NASDAQ) to –0.8% (DJIA). In August 2022, all major indexes fell over 4%; in 2023, losses exceeded 1.8%.

 

Down from August 4 (Mon) into August 19 (Tue), mid- to late-month sideways to down, up into month end.

Since 1950, in post-election years (dashed lines in chart above), August typically starts strong with average gains in the first two trading days, then declines until shortly after mid-month. A rebound of varying size and length usually follows, before major indexes end the month in choppy or sideways trading.

 

S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2023:

The S&P 500 rises steadily through July (blue STA Aggregate Cycle), 
peaks in early August, and pulls back into late August.
 

In post-election years, August has been even weaker: it’s the worst month for DJIA and Russell 1000, second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. Average losses range from –0.5% (Russell 2000) to –1.5% (DJIA), with more down Augusts than up across all indexes.

  

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 28, 2025)  - Typical August Trading – Better Open in Post-Election Years but Still Historically Weak.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2025)  - August has been even weaker in post-election years. 

 

 

Bank of America (BoA) analyst Paul Ciana highlights a historical S&P 500 trend since 1928, where the average trend tended to be frontloaded in July, peaking by the end of August and correcting lower in September. However, since 2015 a similar pattern with a mid-August peak developed while the median trend sees a late September peak.

The summer doldrums (late June to early September) typically see 20-40% lower trading volumes and variable volatility due to reduced market participation. Equities, bonds, commodities, and forex show subdued activity, with occasional volatility spikes due to low liquidity, and, in August 2025, possibly from more US tariffs craze and geopolitical events. 

 

Namzes, July 26, 2025.

  

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report (see above) reveals extreme positioning in VIX futures, with dealers (= banks, broker-dealers, intermediaries managing risk from client trades, not speculating) holding substantial long positions and CTAs (= hedge funds, who are on the other side of the trade, typically as speculators) showing their largest short exposure since November–December 2021—a pattern that has frequently preceded spikes in the VIX. This unusual market setup suggests potential volatility in early August 2025 and aligns with Namze's forecast of an 80-day cycle low in the VIX during that period. However, the resolution may be delayed due to the scale of the positioning. 

Namzes' 2025 S&P 500 Roadmap, December 27, 2024. 

According to BofA Global Research, the average US Presidential Cycle Year 1

(1928-2024) peaks in July and falls around 8% by year-end.

 

A seasonal cycle analysis by Ned Davis Research on the 2025 S&P 500 composite—blending the standard seasonal, 4-year Presidential, and 10-year decennial cycles—projects a current peak, choppy action through October, a late-year drawdown,

and a strong Q4 rally. August and September appear as potential weak spots.

 Bitcoin Seasonal Pattern 2018-2024 vs 2025.

 

See also:

 David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - S&P 500 and NASDAQ Headed for August Hurst Cycle Troughs.

TPR (February 4, 2025)  - The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics.

 Robert Miner (January 8, 2025)  - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Party.

Namzes (April 16, 2025)  - S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue = 89% Correlation.

Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy.

Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) Data Ranges | D'onte Goodridge

IPDA (Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm), a ICT trading concept, is a theoretical model used to explain price movements driven by liquidity hunts, imbalances, and large orders from commercial speculators. It causes the four market phases—consolidation, expansion, retracement, and reversal—with shifts on daily charts every 20, 40, and 60 trading days, known as look-back periods, where liquidity pools form approximately every 20 days.

 

 IPDA Look-Back Periods = 20, 40, and 60 Trading Days

IPTA is always working and exchanging orders every second. IPTA can be applied on a daily timeframe of the current trading day or the first trading day of a month. Before trading a new month, traders should follow three steps to gain insight in the market:

(I.) Visualize IPDA Data Ranges in Daily Chart

The first step you must follow is finding the first trading day of a new month. Next you count back 20, 40, and 60 trading days (TD) from the first trading day of the month. Last find the highest high and lowest low in each look back data range.

 

The above is the daily chart of British pound versus US dollar (GBPUSD). Currently we are in January 2023, and the first official trading day is Monday, January 2, 2023. That is the start. From here we look back 20, 40, and 60 trading days: back 20 TD = December 2, 2022; back 40 TD = November 4, 2022; back 60 TD = October 7, 2022. Now we have all our look back data ranges. We find the highest high (red lines) and lowest low (blue lines) in al three quadrants.

(II.) Create hypothesis were price might draw to based on Technical and Fundamental Analysis

Now that we have finished our chart activity, we will take a look at technical analysis, then perform fundamental analysis and gain macroeconomic data that can aid with insight. Last, bring together the two analysis techniques to form a hypothesis on what price should do in the near future. 

 

Every new trading month, I am asking myself two questions: 

 

(1.) Is price going to give me a quarterly shift, meaning change trends?
(2.) Or is price going to continue its current trend? 

 

I have no idea whether or not the market is going to continue its trend or make a quarterly shift during the new month. However, using the IPTA ranges, I am able to structure some story-line, especially around liquidity. Going into a new trading month, IPTA ranges can help to figure out where the large orders of liquidity are residing. One side of the market is going to be taken, whether that is buy side liquidity or sell side liquidity. Look for the highs and lows that are still intact. This is where the price algorithm is going to draw to.

 

 British Pound Forex Seasonality.

(III.) Consider Seasonality

Incorporate Seasonality for more insight going into a new trading month. Seasonality does not tell you when to buy or sell for the year but it does give a general sense of when to anticipate the high of the year or the low of the year or when a instrument may be going sideways for a month or a couple of months.

 

IPDA Library Example #1: Gold/USD vs IPDA.

 Primary driver of the market are Interest Rate Differentials (IRDs).
 

Reference:

D'onte Goodridge (2022) - IPDA Data Ranges (video)

D'onte Goodridge (2022) - IPDA Library Example #2 - #7 (videos)

Michael J. Huddleston (2020) - ICT Forex Price Action Lesson: Advanced IPDA Insights. (video)

Michael J. Huddleston (2017) - Quarterly Shifts & IPDA Data Ranges. (video) 

Pervasive Euphoria Across The Market | Lines on a Chart by Tom

The markets closed another week at record highs, with the S&P 500 up by 2.3%, the Nasdaq by 3%, and the Dow by 2%. [...] I want to share two charts that caught my attention: The first chart, courtesy of Sentimentrader, depicts the small speculator index at the bottom. The annotation succinctly captures the essence of the chart— "small speculators are all in." 

 

 Small speculators are all-in.

This mirrors my observation last week regarding fund managers being fully invested based on the NAAIM index. The alignment between market participants, both large and small, underscores the pervasive euphoria across the market.

 Tech leadership vs S&P 500 is at highs exceeding the Great Financial Crisis.

The second chart, from Bank of America Global Research, highlights the Technology leadership versus the S&P 500, reaching levels surpassing those seen before the Great Financial Crisis. This serves as an intriguing backdrop to maintain awareness as sentiment and positioning continue to stretch.

Quoted from:

TomTheTrader1 @ Twitter/X
Lines on a Chart by Tom - (Mar 24, 2024) - The Market & The Moon. 

 

This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index number is 93.22. 

Active fund managers are all-in.

 

 [Euphoriameter]

 

 [CNN Fear & Greed Index ]

 

 

 [McClellan Oscillator]

 

Gold Breakout - Target 2,530 to 2,700 | Peter L. Brandt

This is a FOR REAL breakout in Gold. Goldfinger points to a target range of 2,530 to 2,700.

 

Peter L. Brandt @ Twitter/X (Mar 06, 2024)

 

June is typically the lowest month for Gold. 

The graph is based on the average prices; there are times when June tops rather than bottoms. 

Buy dips around monthly pivot levels. 

Friday’s Commitment of Traders (COT) Report from the CFTC had an interesting point about gold. The big money "commercial" traders responded to the rally in gold this week by posting the biggest jump in years in their collective net short position. This marks this week’s pop as at least a short term price top.

There has also been a big jump in total open interest lately. Usually such events mark a blowoff top in gold prices, although occasionally they are seen at a breakout point.

 Curiously, though, the small speculators in the "non-reportable" category were not chasing this week’s rally, and instead they reduced their net long position. They have not been net short as a group since 2016, so the analysis task consists in evaluating their relative net long position as a group. Having the small specs feel scared by this rally says it has some enduring legitimacy, once the short term overbought condition can get worked off. 

Tom McClellan @ Twitter/X (Mar 09, 2024)

Gold vs COT

Source: Fibbo SR (Aug 22, 2016)

Gold + Silver vs COT

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report suggests Gold and Silver could see a pullback.
Source: Fibbo SR (Jul 03, 2016)

EUR/USD Long-Term Low

Ahmed Farghaly (Nov 18, 2015) - EUR COT Analysis: Historically highest net long positions of commercial traders at the Euro low in March 2015
suggest that a Major Bottom in the Euro is in, and a 7.6 Year Rise of the Euro is about to start (chart HERE).

HERE

Ahmed Farghaly (Nov 19, 2015) - 15.23 Year Cycle in EUR/USD

Shifted Eurodollar COT points to SPX Major High in August | Tom McClellan

Tom McClellan (May 07, 2015): I do not know why it works to have the EuroDollars COT data shifted forward by a year to see what the SP500 will do.  But after seeing that it has worked for several years, at some point we stop wondering about the “why” question, and start to accept that there really is something working here.

I should emphasize that the relationship broke down during the Fed’s QE3, the $85 billion per month program of expanding the Fed’s balance sheet which started in September 2012 and then tapered down to nothing by October 2014.  During 2013 the once-nice leading indication seemed to be inverted for a while, and then the two plots got back into sync again starting in late 2013.  That was a frustrating time since I had come to trust its message so much when it was working well in 2011 and 2012. That just proves the point that no indicator is infallible, and one must continue to pay close attention to what is going on, just to make sure that everything is working as it is supposed to.

With the relationship back in sync now, it is appropriate to look ahead to a top due this summer, and some ugliness for stock prices this fall.  Ideally the top is due in early August, but there can be slight differences in the texture of the ED COT pattern and the actual behavior of the SP500. More HERE & HERE

Update - S&P 500 vs Commercial's Net Positions in Eurodollars 1 Year Ago

Tom McClellan discovered that commercial traders' net positions in Eurodollar futures shifted one year into the future are very likely to forecast the direction of the US stock markets (HERE).  CITs are (+/- 3 TD * ):

10/18/2012 high
11/08/2012 low
11/29/2012 high
12/13/2012 low
01/03/2013 high
02/14/2013 low

* COT-data  is  taken  from  the  close  of business  on  Tuesday  and  then released on the following Friday at 3:30 PM ET for futures only. It is also released twice a month or every other Monday for futures combined with the figures for options.

STD Red Week (Oct 29 - Nov 2)

www.chartsedge.com

While the S&P 500 futures continue to test support at 1400, Wallstreet's floor markets will be closed on Monday as New York braces for Hurricane Sandy. 

However,  STD Red Weeks are usually trenders from Tuesday a.m. to Friday a.m., that is: Monday and Friday usually reverse the Tuesday - Thursday trend. 

We expect a short term high around Full Moon (that is inverted to Mike Korell's forecast). If the typical Red-Week Pattern plays out, the low of the week should print by Thursday p.m. - Friday a.m., and will be followed by another decline with lower-lows into the Election-Week. As outlined earlier, the ITD suggests the high (some Elliott-Wave #4 or #2) could be reached as early as Tuesday-Wednesday (HERE).

This week includes the last 3 trading days of October and the first 2 trading days of November during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle, and the bias of the S&P 500 in the Election Year Seasonal Chart is up. 

S&P 500 Today = Eurodollar COT 1 Year Ago | Tom McClellan

In May 2011 Tom McClellan unveiled a sensational discovery:

There are some jewels in the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:  ... Commercial traders' net positions in eurodollar futures shifted forward by one year foretell the the stock market.
... Let's pause a minute to let that deep point sink in. Commercial eurodollar traders seem to "know" a year in advance what the stock market is going to do.  It is not a perfect correlation, but it is a darned good one.  I'm not sure what makes this work, but I have seen that it has worked great since about 1997 ... The term "eurodollars" should not be confused with the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro (HERE & HERE).

Projected CITs for the S&P 500 are (since COT data is weekly, CITs are +/-):

09/13/2012 high
09/20/2012 low
10/18/2012 high
11/08/2012 low
11/29/2012 HIGH of the Year
12/20/2012 low
01/03/2013 high
etc. 

STD Red Week (August 6 - 10)

For previous Short-Term-Delta Red Weeks in the S&P 500 see also HERE

STD Red Weeks oftentimes are trenders from Tuesday open to Friday open.  Monday and Friday often reverse the Tuesday - Thursday trend. This is the STD Red Week's pattern:

Alex Roslin's - COTs Timer (Aug 4)
Smart Money Commercial Hedgers dump S&P 500, COT signal flips to bearish

David Hickson - Hurst cycles (Aug 4)
We are expecting the 80-day cycle peak to form in the US markets soon, after which there will be a fall into the 80-day cycle trough which is expected in late August.
[Hurst triad] lines are presently projecting a target for the peak of 1400-1420.

Mike Burk - Seasonality (Aug 4)
As measured by the S&P 500 August has been, by far, the strongest month of the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle. I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday August 10 than they were on Friday August 3.

www.chartsedge.com

www.alphee.com

www.astrocycle.net

The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) broke above resistance from the July highs
and remains in an uptrend, but a spinning top formed on Friday.
These candlesticks show indecision and the prior two foreshadowed
pullbacks within the uptrend [Arthur Hill]