April 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished with bullish days present throughout April. Traders and investors appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.

 Since 1950, April has shown steady market gains from the first trading day to the last, with occasional

minor dips. In post-election years, April starts weaker, but the dip is brief and shallow.

As you can see in the above chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and post-election years since 1950, April has historically been nearly perfect with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In post-election years, April does tend to open on the soft side, but the early dip has historically been shallow and brief.

 

In post-election years, April remains a top performing month ranking second best for DJIA and S&P 500, and third best for NASDAQ. Average gains since 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500 are comparable to all years, but notably improve for NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. NASDAQ’s three post-election year April declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 27, 2025) - Taxes Schmaxes – April Strong Open to Close – Deadline Impact Fades.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2025) - April is the second-best month for S&P 500 and DJIA.

 

Other Bullish Scenarios:

 

Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%. 

Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023).

Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

 

Bearish Scenarios:

 

 Next 20-day Hurst cycle due to bottom around April 9 (Wed)(±).

 

 

 FINRA Margin Debt vs S&P 500 Real Values, suggesting risk as of late March 2025. 

 

 

Potential opportunity shorting the S&P 500 in
the next major downturn over the coming weeks.

Trigger Trades, March 27, 2025.

 

See also:

TPR (March 7, 2025) - The Three Week Cycle, Quarterly Shift, and IPDA Data Ranges.

TPR (March 11, 2025) - S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle. 

TPR (March 23, 2025) - Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2.

 

The Kondratieff Cycle and Its Subdivisions.

March 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

Rather turbulent in recent years, with wild fluctuations and large gains and losses, March has been experiencing some significant end-of-quarter hits. In post-election years since 1950, March has tended to open strongly, and this strength has generally persisted until shortly after mid-month (as indicated by the dashed arrow below). At that point, the major indexes lost momentum and closed out March with some choppy trading. In contrast, over the past 21 years, March has trended lower through mid-month before rallying in the second half.

 March strong early-month, mid-month losses with choppy trading,
often rally after Quadruple Witching (March 21), likely sharp decline the week after.

March is a particularly busy month. It marks the end of the first quarter, which brings with it quarterly Quadruple Witching (Friday, March 21) and an abundance of portfolio maneuvers from Wall Street. In recent years, March Quad-Witching Weeks have been quite bullish, but the week after has been nearly the exact opposite, with the DJIA down 22 of the last 37 years—and often down sharply.

 

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 26, 2025) - Beware The Ides of March.

 

 Updated $SPX July-Oct 2023 correction overlay:
1 week bounce then down into end of March final low. — Namzes, February 28, 2025.

See also:

Robert Miner (2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Parties. 

 The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics.