Showing posts with label Premium/Discount. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Premium/Discount. Show all posts

Thursday, July 18, 2024

Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) Data Ranges | D'onte Goodridge

IPTA stands for Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm which controls the price action on our charts. It is the sole reason we get the four phases of the market: consolidation, expansion, retracement, and reversal. IPTA is used by Commercial Speculators to move large orders in the market. IPTA creates shifts on the daily chart every 20, 40, and 60 trading days, known as the IPDA look-back periods.
 
 IPDA Look-Back Periods = 20, 40, and 60 Trading Days

Approximately every 20 trading days, new liquidity pools form on both sides of the market. Understanding IPTA will give clarity about which levels are significant to current price. IPTA is always working and exchanging orders every second. IPTA can be applied on a daily timeframe of the current trading day or the first trading day of a month. 
 
Before trading a new month, traders should follow three steps to gain insight in the market:

(I.) Visualize IPDA Data Ranges in Daily Chart
The first step you must follow is finding the first trading day of a new month. Next you count back 20, 40, and 60 trading days (TD) from the first trading day of the month. Last find the highest high and lowest low in each look back data range.

 
The above is the daily chart of British pound versus US dollar (GBPUSD). Currently we are in January 2023, and the first official trading day is Monday, January 2, 2023. That is the start. From here we look back 20, 40, and 60 trading days: back 20 TD = December 2, 2022; back 40 TD = November 4, 2022; back 60 TD = October 7, 2022. Now we have all our look back data ranges. We find the highest high (red lines) and lowest low (blue lines) in al three quadrants.

(II.) Create hypothesis were price might draw to based on Technical and Fundamental Analysis
Now that we have finished our chart activity, we will take a look at technical analysis, then perform fundamental analysis and gain macroeconomic data that can aid with insight. Last, bring together the two analysis techniques to form a hypothesis on what price should do in the near future. 
 
Every new trading month, I am asking myself two questions: 
 
(1.) Is price going to give me a quarterly shift, meaning change trends?
(2.) Or is price going to continue its current trend? 
 
I have no idea whether or not the market is going to continue its trend or make a quarterly shift during the new month. However, using the IPTA ranges, I am able to structure some story-line, especially around liquidity. Going into a new trading month, IPTA ranges can help to figure out where the large orders of liquidity are residing. One side of the market is going to be taken, whether that is buy side liquidity or sell side liquidity. Look for the highs and lows that are still intact. This is where the price algorithm is going to draw to.
 
(III.) Consider Seasonality
Incorporate Seasonality for more insight going into a new trading month. Seasonality does not tell you when to buy or sell for the year but it does give a general sense of when to anticipate the high of the year or the low of the year or when a instrument may be going sideways for a month or a couple of months.

 
IPDA Library Example #1: Gold/USD vs IPDA.
 Primary driver of the market are Interest Rate Differentials (IRDs).
 
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erence:

Sunday, July 14, 2024

Trading Major News Events | D'onte Goodridge

News events typically inject momentum into the market, often prompting traders to anticipate where price might trend in response to the news. Making educated predictions about these movements is a common strategy rooted in technical analysis. Position yourself AFTER major news releases (NFP, CPI, PPI, PMI, FOMC etc.) with either a Pump & Dump or a Dump & Pump trading setup.


Sell Scenario/Setup: Wait for the buy side liquidity pool on the 15 minute timeframe to be raided first. After that, go to the 1 minute timeframe entry above the killzone's opening price. Then, anticipate that price will revert back down to a sell side liquidity level.
 
 
Buy Scenario/Setup: Wait for the sell side liquidity pool on the 15 minute timeframe to be raided first. After that, go to the 1 minute timeframe entry below the killzone's opening price. Then, anticipate that price will revert back up to a buy side liquidity level.
 
When price moves above the opening price of a killzone, it's in a premium. This is where to find ideal sell entries. 


When price moves below the opening price of a killzone, it's in a
discount. This is where to find ideal buy entries.

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

ICT Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) | Darya Filipenka

Timing is an important factor in trading, and a well-defined strategy can significantly increase your chances of success. The ICT Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) strategy is one approach that traders can utilize to identify high-probability trade setups. It’s important to pinpoint the specific time and day when the OTE is most likely to occur. Typically, this happens between 8:30 AM and 11:00 AM, New York local time.
 

Market Structure - As the market rises and declines and makes
higher highs/lower lows, each new swing higher/lower in price is anchored or directly reacting to another swing higher or lower. Every swing in price has an equal counter swing it is unfolding from and attempting to fulfill. 
 
Market Structure Shift (MSS) - comes from the HL or LH levels, it will serve as one of the reasons for us to enter the trade. A market structure shift is depicted as a significant level on the chart where the prior trend Is invalidated. When the market is in an uptrend, the market structure shift level is typically identified as a point where a lower low is formed. Conversely, in a downtrend, the market structure shift level Is often observed at a juncture where a higher high emerges. Notably, these market structure shifts tend to arise following a displacement, signaling a potential shift in the overall trend direction.

1. The Premium Zone represents the price correction range situated above the 0.5 (50%) level in the context of a downward momentum. Traders pay attention to this zone when considering selling opportunities.
2. The Discount Zone refers to the price correction range located below the 0.5 (50%) level in the case of an upward impulse. Traders observe this zone for potential buying opportunities.
3. The Equilibrium Zone denotes the price range where the asset's average price is located. In other words, it represents the fair price zone or the level of balance between buyers and sellers.
 

Traders and market makers seek opportunities to buy at a Discount and sell at the Premium zone. As a result, traders often disregard the 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci levels in their analysis and instead wait for the price to move above or below the equilibrium level. We focus on the Premium / Discount Zones, since the price does not always enter the OTE zone. Sometimes it is enough for price to adjust by 0.5 (50%) in order for the big man to gain or lose a position.
 

To select the high and low points of a dealing range, follow these steps:

1. Run a Fibonacci retracement tool from the highest high to the lowest low within the dealing range. This will help establish the overall range of price action.
2. Pay attention to areas where the algorithms consolidate. These consolidation areas indicate fair value and are important in determining the proper dealing range.
3. Consider the nearest high when the 50% Fibonacci level aligns with the common consolidation area. This will help identify the appropriate high point of the dealing range.
4. Select the lowest low as the low point of the dealing range. This ensures that the range encompasses the relevant price action and aligns with the areas where algorithms are active.

To implement the OTE strategy, follow these steps:

1. Determine the current market structure, whether it has a bullish or bearish bias. This ia crucial as Fibonacci levels work best within a trending market.
2. Identify significant swing highs and lows to draw the Fibonacci grid. These highs and lows are often visually prominent and easy to label.
3. Use the Fibonacci retracement tool to assess the correction potential in an uptrend (from bottom to top) or downtrend (from top to bottom).

Using OTE during Silver Bullet: After identifying the MSS, I recommend drawing an OTE retracement from the Swing Low (High) to the Swing High (Low). The optimal entry point for trades is typically at the 62% retracement level of that range. Once the trade is entered, the first target is typically set at the -27% extension level, and the second target is set at the -62% extension level. Wait for price to trade back into the FVG (Fair Value Gap) and then reprice out of the FVG towards the targeted pool of liquidity. Usually a FVG lines up with the 62% retracement level.  
 
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