How Algorithms Impact Market Direction: 80% of Breakouts Fail | Richie Naso

The first thing you need to truly understand is that algorithms control the stock market; not the large institutional players, not the massive hedge funds, but price auction algorithms. Algorithms are there to create volatility and liquidity; they have no mind, they are programmed to go to technical areas, certain levels, to take out buy and sell orders. The market operates on a day-to-day basis with both premium and discount levels. When the market moves toward a premium level, the algorithms target that area to create liquidity. Conversely, when the market moves lower, the algorithms aim for the discount area to generate liquidity.
 

 Equilibrium Level and Premium -Discount Zones.

Algorithms dictate the direction of the market, especially in the near term. The mathematical equations used in these algorithms are designed by humans, based on historical data. When the market is trending lower and algorithms reach a significant technical level (support/resistance, supply/demand zones, previous highs and lows of sessions, days, weeks, months, imbalances, order blocks, 50%-levels, round numbers, option strike prices) and the market is trending lower, algorithms will activate and target that technical area. They recognize that the area is a support level. They also understand that they can manipulate investor emotions to make them believe that the market is bottoming out. 

 

Premium-Discount Zones for Short and Long Setups.

As a result, when the algorithm hits that technical area, it aims to trigger emotions that lead investors to sell or short in response to what appears to be a breakdown. These breakdowns are often referred to as "failed breakout trades," and they tend not to succeed. In fact, they fail in more than 80% of cases.

 

 » Some of the best trade setups are failed breakouts. «

Why? Because it’s a contrived effort by the mathematical logic of the algorithms, designed to make investors do exactly what the algorithms want. The goal is to get people to go short at the bottom and encourage long investors to sell their positions at the lowest point, clearing the way for an upward movement. First, shorts need to be covered. Then, longs who sold at the bottom will be motivated to buy back shares, creating another emotional impulse. Typically, this leads to a poor trade for those who sold too early.

» The goal is to get people to go long at the top. «

 

The same principle applies in both directions—whether the market is moving up or down. For instance, in a false breakdown, algorithms may manipulate the market to sell. In a false breakout, they may prompt buying. In both cases, the effect is similar: short covering and long investors buying at the wrong time. To sum it up, the algorithms exploit emotional responses. There is no support for short positions when the market is trending down, and the longs who are caught at the top are forced to sell. This creates the momentum for the market to move in the opposite direction.

 » 80% of Breakouts fail. «

This is why some of the best trades are failed breakdowns—buying against technical levels that are collapsing. This is when and where you should buy, while everyone else is being pushed out of the market. You don’t want to short a failed breakdown in a technical area, nor should you buy a breakout in such an area. Instead, you should do the opposite in these situations. 

 

» Algos do what they are programmed to do. They take no prisoners. «

 

My most successful trades, without question, occur when stop orders are triggered. People use stop orders to protect themselves from losses. This is where you should enter the market—against stop orders. If stop orders are triggered and the market has to sell down, you should buy. Conversely, if stop orders are triggered on the way up, you should sell. The key is to position yourself on the other side of stop orders.

 

 » Printing money. That’s what we do. And we do it every day. «

To sum it up, algorithms are written by programmers, and have to be designed to go somewhere. Where do they go? To technical areas. Those algorithms are heading there, without a doubt. They aim to shake out longs and get people to go short or vice versa. So, what do the smart players do who are at the bottom of these algorithms, scooping up all this action? They feed into these people. That's the purpose of algorithms. We take advantage of what they give us. Printing money. That’s what we do. And we do it every day. 

 

You need to know the technicals, the levels, and pay attention to them. Technical areas are borders, and price history is how you identify and track them. Do multi-time frame analysis; understand what failed breakdowns and failed breakouts look like; double bottoms, double tops, pin bars, three-push-patterns, three-bar reversals, and M and W patterns, all the way down to the 1-minute chart. Find out what else VWAP, EMA (9), and Keltner can do for you. Wait for price to get to technical areas, and for reversal setups to form. Price to price, level to level, zone to zone. Don't chase trades; scale into them, as single-entry trades will kill you. Understand position management; know your stop-loss level, take-profit targets, and your R, and take what the market gives you. Consider taking partial profits and holding positions through a session close or daily close. Journal your trades; some of your best trades will be losing trades that help you learn valuable lessons. Keeping things simple is the key to success as a trader.

 

Reference:
Richie Naso's YouTube! Channel. 

Richie Naso @TradeZeroOfficial.

Richie Naso (2023) - Think like a criminal. (video) 

Riz Iqbal (2024) - Richie Naso explains exactly how the Market Algorithm works. (video)

See also: 

orderbloque (2024) - Market Logic is Based on Liquidity, Volume, and Inefficiency.

Abdullah Shah (2024) - Premium and Discount Zones – SMC & ICT Trading.

TTrades (2023) - Discount & Premium - ICT Concepts. (video)

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Draw on Liquidity.

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Optimal Trade Entry (OTE).

Max Singh (2019) - Turtle Soup Trading Strategy.

Jevaunie Daye (2024) - The Quarterly Theory.

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Algorithmic Price Delivery & Time Macros Intro.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Market Maker Buy Model and Sell Model (MMXM).

Michael J. Huddleston & Jevaunie Daye (2024) - ICT Time Macros & Quarterly Theory.

ICT Time Macros & Quarterly Theory | Michael J. Huddleston & Jevaunie Daye

Algorithmic macros are timed directives for market maker price algorithms to seek and take out liquidity levels and imbalances in the market. Hence looking at a chart the first task is always to identify imbalances/inefficiencies, buy-side and sell-side liquidity levels. Look at previous day's highs and lows, session highs and lows, highs and lows in the last three days and the previous week. 

 

 

There are 8 macros during the trading day:

 

          #1  London Pre-Open Macro      02:33 - 03:00 EST/EDT

#2 London Open Macro               04:03 - 04:30

#3 New York AM Macro                 08:50 - 09:10
#4 London Close Macro               09:50 - 10:10
#5 London Fix Macro                    10:50 - 11:10
#6 New York AM Close Macro    11:50 - 12:10
#7 New York Lunch Macro          13:10 - 13:40
#8 New York PM Close Macro    15:15 - 15:45

 

ICT Killzones and Macros in the US Dollar Index 5 minute chart.

 

ICT Killzones and Macros in the S&P 500 E-mini Futures 5 minute chart.

Macros focus mainly on the first 20, 30, or 40 minutes of a trading hour (22.5 Minute Cycle). 

 

► There are no ICT macros during the Asian Session.  

► The macro between 9:50 and 10:10 is a time window where the market maker algorithm starts running for liquidity (look for ICT Silver Bullet setup).

► The period between 10:50 and 11:10 marks the end of the 3rd hour of the New York AM Session, and the first 90 minutes of floor trading (90 Minute Cycle). 

► The transition from the AM session to the lunch period leads either to consolidation, reversal or continuation (6 Hour AMDX/XAMD Cycle).

 

Divison of the trading day according to the Quarterly Theory:

6 Hour Sessions, 90 Minute Quarters & 22.5 Minute Micro Cycles/Quarters (EST/EDT).

 

6 Hour Sessions & 90 Minute Quarters in the S&P 500 E-mini Futures 15 minute chart.
 

90 minute Cycles & 22.5 Minute Micro Quarters in the S&P 500 E-mini Futures 1 minute chart.

 

Based on market structure and price action prior and during a macro, three categories can be classified:

 

(1.) Manipulation Macros sweep both buy-side and sell-side liquidity levels.

(2.) Expansion Macros sweep liquidity only on the buy-side OR the sell-side (trending price).

(3.) Accumulation Macros are characterized by ranging prices. 

 

Swing highs and lows of macro intervals can act as support and resistance.

 

Reference:

Michael J. Huddleston (July 9, 2023) - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Algorithmic Price Delivery & Time Macros Intro. (video)
Michael J. Huddleston (June 26, 2023) - 2023 ICT Mentorship - Opening Range Gap Repricing Macro. (video)

Michael J. Huddleston (2017) - Projected Range & Objectives.

Michael J. Huddleston (2015) - ICT Daily Range Profiles.

Daye (2023) - The Quarterly Theory.

 

See also:

Muhammad Aatiq Shah (2024) - ICT Macros Times – Smart Money Time-Based Trading.

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Algorithmic Price Delivery & Time Macros Intro.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT AM NY Session A+ Setup based on Quarterly Theory.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - Quarterly Theory - London and New York AM & PM Setups.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Silver Bullet Strategy.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - Implementing Economic Calendar Events.

LuxAlgo (2024) - ICT Killzones.

LuxAlgo (2023) - ICT Silver Bullet.

LuxAlgo (2023) - ICT Macros.

The Market Makers Method | Jones Zondo

Price is a reflection of the number of transactions and the price paid for these transactions. A large number of transactions are required in order to shift price. The Forex market is said to trade about $4,000,000,000,000 [four trillion dollars] on average daily. The bulk of transactions are executed by large “Warren Buffet” institutions, and not by laptop traders such as ourselves.

 » A typical pattern of behavior particularly when analyzing the Three-Day Cycle is to be able
to identify a peak high followed by three moves down and a reversal which will form a peak low. «

Market Maker ability to dominate the market is overwhelming. It costs roughly 10,000 Lots to move the market by 1 pip, with this in mind Market Makers have the ability to move the price at will and retail traders can’t. For a retail trader to truly succeed in Forex, you need to at least have a concept of this Mammoth process so that you will understand what is happening and why. Rather you adapt to trade with them instead of against them once we are done with the secrets. Once you realize that price is moved as a result of intention, logic decision and the idea that price is a product of emotional feeling (sentiments) of various traders is misguiding “BS”. Failure to realize this, your trade career will be emotion driven leaving you to react to every trade.

Quoted from:
Jones Zondo (2018) - Market Makers Secrets. Private study notes extracted from various entities. 

 

See also:

Steve Mauro (2011) - The Market Makers Method.

Cameron Benson (June 16, 2024) - The Complete 3 Day Cycle Short-Term Trading System.

Michael J. Huddleston (2016) - ICT Forex - Market Maker Primer Course. (videos)

ICT T.G.I.F. (Thank God It's Friday) Setup | Darya Filipenka

Algorithmic trading is a method of executing trades using pre-programmed instructions or algorithms that automatically trigger trades based on certain conditions. It's a fascinating approach that can help traders make more precise and efficient decisions. Now, let's focus on a specific algorithmic trading model called the TGIF (Thank God It's Friday) setup. This is a day-based algorithmic trading model that can be applied to all assets. As the name suggests, this model is designed to be used on Fridays. The TGIF setup focus is on a market pullback into the current weekly range. It is particularly effective when anchored against higher time frame analysis.

» In the last portion of Friday’s trading, if it hasn't occurred yet, you can expect some retracement of the weekly range. «

Michael J. Huddleston, 2023

When using the TGIF setup it's crucial to approach from a top-down perspective. This means starting with higher time frame analysis, such as monthly or weekly charts, to get a broader view of the market's direction. In candlestick analysis, there is a concept called the ICT Power of 3. This refers to a specific pattern and distribution phase that can indicate a potential reversal or exhaustion in the market. By studying the one-month chart, you identify the weekly range and its key levels. You apply Fibonacci levels to pinpoint the sweet spot where the TGIF setup is likely to occur. You also conduct top-down analysis by examining higher time frame charts to get a broader view of the market's direction. Keep an eye out for the ICT Silver Bullet formation. 

To apply the TGIF setup, follow these steps:

1. Start by analyzing the higher time frame charts, such as monthly or weekly charts, to get a broader view of the market's direction.
2. Identify the Weekly Range Profile and its key levels, such as the High and the Low of the range.
3. Use Fibonacci levels to pinpoint sweet spot where the TGIF setup is likely to occur.
4. Look for the pullback into the weekly range.
5. Pay attention to the ICT Power of 3 pattern in candlestick analysis, which can indicate potential reversals or exhaustion.
6. Keep an eye out for the ICT Silver Bullet formation, a powerful pattern that provides valuable insights into market dynamics.
7. Combine all these analysis techniques to make informed trading decisions using the TGIF setup.

Quoted from:
Darya Filipenka (2023) - Algorithmic Trading - TGIF.

 

Michael J. Huddleston (June 19, 2023) - The TGIF Setup.

 

See also: 
Michael J. Huddleston (September 27, 2022) - ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 07 - Defining Weekly Range Profiles. (video)

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Algorithmic Price Delivery & Time Macros Intro.

Daye (2024) - The Quarterly Theory.
TPR (2023) - The ICT Power of 3: Accumulation - Manipulation - Distribution (AMD).
TPR (2022) - Daily Range = Accumulation + Manipulation + Expansion + Distribution (AMD).

The Quarterly Theory | Jevaunie Daye

In March 2023 Jevaunie Daye (traderdaye), a young ICT trader from the US, took the trading world by storm with his Quarterly Theory (not to be confused with the Quarters Theory), a concept he derived from Michael Huddleston's ICT mentorships. Within weeks Daye's Youtube Channel with just one video in which he briefly outlined his theory exploded to 16,000 subscribers: "Time must be divided into quarters for a proper interpretation of market cycles."  

 

 

 

 Daye (March 14, 2023) - Ever wondered ... ?

The idea is to split year, month, week, day and session into quarters at specific times which lead to ICT's Power of 3 (Accumulation-Manipulation-Distribution) cycles within those quarters. They present in one of these two forms:

Q1. (A)ccumulation - Consolidation.
Q2. (M)anipulation - Judas Swing.
Q3. (D)istribution - Low Resistance Liquidity Run.
Q4. (X) - Continuation or Reversal of previous quarter.

(OR)

Q1. (X) - Continuation or Reversal of previous quarter.
Q2. (A)ccumulation - Consolidation.
Q3. (M)anipulation - Judas Swing.
Q4. (D)istribution - Low Resistance Liquidity Run.

 

Daye (April 14, 2023) - Introduction to Quarterly Theory.

 

Blending the Quarterly Theory and basic ICT concepts leads to enhanced precision. Understanding Quarterly Theory allows to be flexible. It fits in with any style of trading, as it is universal to all time-frames. The Quarterly Theory removes ambiguity, as it gives specific time-based reference points to look for when entering trades. Before being able to apply this theory to trading, one must first understand that time is fractal:

Yearly Quarters = 4 quarters of three months each.
Monthly Quarters = 4 quarters of one week each.
Weekly Quarters = 4 quarters of one day each (Monday - Thursday). Friday has its own specific function.
Daily Quarters = 4 quarters of 6 hours each = 4 trading sessions of a trading day.
Sessions Quarters =  4 quarters of 90 minutes each.
90 Minute Quarters =  4 quarters of 22.5 minutes each.

 

Yearly Cycle: Analogously to financial quarters, the year is divided in four sections of three months each:

 

Q1 - January, February, March.
Q2 - April, May, June (True Open, April Open).
Q3 - July, August, September.
Q4 - October, November, December.

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily candles) — Monthly Cycle.

Monthly Cycle: Considering that we have four weeks in a month, we start the cycle on the first month’s Monday (regardless of the calendar Day):

 

Q1 - Week 1: first Monday of the month.
Q2 - Week 2: second Monday of the month (True Open, Daily Candle Open Price).
Q3 - Week 3: third Monday of the month.
Q4 - Week 4: fourth Monday of the month.

 

 

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4 hour candles) — Weekly Cycle.

 

Weekly Cycle: Daye determined that although the trading week is composed by 5 trading days, we should ignore Friday, and the small portion of Sunday’s price action:

 

Q1 - Monday.
Q2 - Tuesday (True Open, Daily Candle Open Price).
Q3 - Wednesday.
Q4 - Thursday.

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (1 hour candles) — Daily Cycle.

Daily Cycle: The Day can be broken down into 6 hour quarters. These times roughly define the sessions of the trading day, reinforcing the theory’s validity:

 

Q1 - 18:00 - 00:00 Asia.
Q2 - 00:00 - 06:00 London (True Open).
Q3 - 06:00 - 12:00 NY AM.
Q4 - 12:00 - 18:00 NY PM.

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (15 minute candles) — 6 Hour Cycle.

6 Hour Quarters or 90 Minute Cycle / Sessions divided into four sections of 90 minutes each  (EST/EDT):

 

Asian Session

Q1 - 18:00 - 19:30
Q2 - 19:30 - 21:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 21:00 - 22:30
Q4 - 22:30 - 00:00

 London Session

Q1 - 00:00 - 01:30
Q2 - 01:30 - 03:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 03:00 - 04:30
Q4 - 04:30 - 06:00

NY AM Session 

Q1 - 06:00 - 07:30
Q2 - 07:30 - 09:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 09:00 - 10:30
Q4 - 10:30 - 12:00

NY PM Session 

Q1 - 12:00 - 13:30
Q2 - 13:30 - 15:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 15:00 - 16:30
Q4 - 16:30 - 18:00

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (5 minute candles) — 90 Minute Cycle.

Micro Cycles: Dividing the 90 Minute Cycle yields 22.5 Minute Quarters, also known as Micro Sessions or Micro Quarters:

 

Asian Session

Q1/1 18:00:00 - 18:22:30
Q2     18:22:30 - 18:45:00
Q3     18:45:00 - 19:07:30
Q4     19:07:30 - 19:30:00
Q2/1 19:30:00 - 19:52:30 (True Session Open)
Q2/2 19:52:30 - 20:15:00
Q2/3 20:15:00 - 20:37:30
Q2/4 20:37:30 - 21:00:00
Q3/1 21:00:00 - 21:23:30
etc.    21:23:30 - 21:45:00

London Session

00:00:00 - 00:22:30  (True Daily Open)
00:22:30 - 00:45:00
00:45:00 - 01:07:30
01:07:30 - 01:30:00
01:30:00 - 01:52:30  (True Session Open)
01:52:30 - 02:15:00
02:15:00 - 02:37:30
02:37:30 - 03:00:00
03:00:00 - 03:22:30
03:22:30 - 03:45:00
03:45:00 - 04:07:30
04:07:30 - 04:30:00
04:30:00 - 04:52:30
04:52:30 - 05:15:00
05:15:00 - 05:37:30
05:37:30 - 06:00:00

New York AM Session

06:00:00 - 06:22:30
06:22:30 - 06:45:00
06:45:00 - 07:07:30
07:07:30 - 07:30:00
07:30:00 - 07:52:30  (True Session Open)
07:52:30 - 08:15:00
08:15:00 - 08:37:30
08:37:30 - 09:00:00
09:00:00 - 09:22:30
09:22:30 - 09:45:00
09:45:00 - 10:07:30
10:07:30 - 10:30:00
10:30:00 - 10:52:30
10:52:30 - 11:15:00
11:15:00 - 11:37:30
11:37:30 - 12:00:00

New York PM Session

12:00:00 - 12:22:30
12:22:30 - 12:45:00
12:45:00 - 13:07:30
13:07:30 - 13:30:00
13:30:00 - 13:52:30  (True Session Open)
13:52:30 - 14:15:00
14:15:00 - 14:37:30
14:37:30 - 15:00:00
15:00:00 - 15:22:30
15:22:30 - 15:45:00
15:45:00 - 15:37:30
15:37:30 - 16:00:00
16:00:00 - 16:22:30
16:22:30 - 16:45:00
16:45:00 - 17:07:30
17:07:30 - 18:00:00

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (30 second candles) — 22.5 Minute Cycle.

The Monthly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one week each. Start counting the quarters from the first full week, meaning if the first week relating to the traditional month is a partial week, it is omitted and viewed as distortion. The first full week of the month is the first quarter, the second week is the second quarter, the third week is the third quarter and the fourth week is the fourth quarter.

 

Daye (Feb 19, 2024) - Quarterly Theory - The Secret ICT Trading Strategy.

The Weekly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one day each. Monday is the first quarter, Tuesday is the second quarter, Wednesday is the third quarter and Thursday is the fourth quarter. Friday is not included into the weekly cycle due to the fact that it has its own specific function.

The Daily Cycle is comprised of four quarters, six hours each, which perfectly aligns with the four trading sessions of a trading day. The first quarter is the Asian session, the second quarter is the London session, the third quarter is the New York session and the fourth quarter is the afternoon session. 

 

Each Session is comprised of four quarters, 90 minutes each. During the Asian session, the 90 minute cycles are as follows: 18:00 to 19.30 is the first quarter, 19.30 to 21:00 is the second quarter, 21:00 to 22:30 is the third quarter and 22:30 to 24:00 midnight is the fourth quarter. During the London session, the first quarter is 00.00 / midnight to 1:30. The second quarter is 1:30 to 3:00. The third quarter is 3:00 to 4:30, and the fourth quarter is 4:30 to 6:00. The New York AM Session starts with the first quarter at 6:00 and lasts to 7:30. The second quarter is 7:30 to 9:00. The third quarter is 9:00 to 10:30. And the fourth quarter is 10:30 to 12:00. The first quarter of the New York PM Session starts  at 12:00 and lasts to 13:30. The second quarter is 13:30 to 15:00. The third quarter is 15:00 to 16:30. And the fourth quarter is 16:30 to 18:00.

Now that we understand that time is fractal, we can begin to look into the functions of some of the quarters. Price is delivered by an algorithm. So there must be some initial input which is used to make decisions throughout each cycle. This is the function of Q1. Q1 dictates the quarters which follow, meaning Q1 is used as a barometer for forecasting market conditions in the subsequent quarters of each cycle. If the first quarter is overextended, expect the second quarter to consolidate, and if the first quarter is in a tight range, expect the second quarter to expand. 

 

 

True Opens are the main components of quarterly theory. There are specific openings of price which serve as a time-based filter for gauging manipulation swings or stop-hunts. True opens are the beginning of Q2 of every cycle.  True Opens are defined by these times:

• Yearly True Open = 1st Monday of April.
• Monthly True Open = 2nd Monday of the month.
• Weekly True Open = 18:00 every Monday.
• Daily True Open = 12:00 (Midnight).
• NY AM Session True Open = 7:30
• NY AM Session True Open = 13:30
• Asian Session True Open = 19:30
• London Session True Open = 1:30
  

 

Buy below True Open. Sell above True Open.

 

 

It is a simple concept to understand. If you are bullish within a specific cycle, you want to buy below its true open, and if you are bearish within a specific cycle, you want to sell above its true open. This will increase your accuracy tremendously, as key levels usually rest above or below true opens. Every cycle has its own true open. The true year open is the opening price of the first Monday of April. The true month open is the opening price of the second Monday of the month. The true week open is Monday at 18:00. The true day open is 12 o'clock midnight. The true open of the age on session is 19:30. The true open of the London session is 1:30. The true open of the New York session is 7:30. And the true open of the afternoon session is 13:30. The image to the right depicts how true opens function during bullish market environments.

There are two sets of instructions that the algorithm follows:  

AMD-X and X-AMD

 

A = Accumulation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation = Judas Swing
D = Distribution
X = Reversal or Continuation

After a tight Q1 range the Q2 Manipulation Phase begins. ICT calls this the Judas Swing. According to his algorithmic theory, the purpose of this fake move is to get traders offside. After Q2 the real move takes place: the Q3 distribution phase and is usually the easiest to trade as the previous quarter has already established a trend of the cycle. The fourth phase is X which can either continue to establish range of the cycle or reverse. In regards to this example, the fourth quarter is reversal. As you can see, price reverses at Higher Time Frame Premium-Discount Arrays (PDAs) or key levels. 

 

 The AMD-Principle is represented in every bar of every time-frame (monthly, weekly, daily, 4 Hour, etc.) 

with a price value at which it starts trading (opening price), the highest price value (high), the lowest (low), 

and  a value of the time it ends trading (close).

Liquidity is induced when price breaches old highs and old lows while trading into key levels. If you usually trade with the one minute chart, you need a 15 minute PDA. If you usually trade with the five minute chart, you need a one hour PDA. If you usually trade with the 15 minute chart, you need a four hour PDA. If you usually trade with the one hour chart, you need a daily PDA. And if you usually trade with the four hour chart, you need a weekly PDA. 

 

Regarding X-AMD, the first quarter is the continuation or reversal of the previous Q. Of the previous cycle, using what we understand from the function of Q1, Q2 should then accumulate, resulting in high range price action. Q3 would then be the manipulation phase. However, the rules for the true opens are static. They don't change. The opening price of Q2 will always be its true open. So if the profile that you're looking at is X-AMD, even though accumulation takes place during Q2, you will use the opening price of Q2, which is its true open to gauge, the Judah swing, which will present itself more times or not in Q3. The last phase will be the distribution phase, which will be the easiest phase to trade in regards to X-AMD. 

 

Dividing a 90 Minute Cycle into 22.5 Minute Quarters (Micro Sessions).

 

Reference:

Daye - YouTube Channel.
Daye on Twitter/X @traderdaye

Daye's Full course / Quarterly Theory.

Daye (April 14, 2023) - Introduction to Quarterly Theory.

 ICT Concepts (2023) - Quarterly Theory and True Open. (video)

Michael J. Huddleston & Jevaunie Daye (2024) - ICT Macros & Quarterly Theory.

 

Kirsten Boersma (September 10, 2023):

Quarterly Theory - the Hack of the Algorithm?

» Is this proof of the algorithm existing or not? I do think so;-) 

And it's mind blowing how this fractal quarterly theory happens over and over again. «