Saturday, September 15, 2012

S&P 500 Today = Commercial's Net Positions in Eurodollars 1 Year Ago

In May 2011 Tom McClellan unveiled a sensational discovery:
There are some jewels in the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:  ... Commercial traders' net positions in eurodollar futures shifted forward by one year foretell the the stock market.
... Let's pause a minute to let that deep point sink in. Commercial eurodollar traders seem to "know" a year in advance what the stock market is going to do.  It is not a perfect correlation, but it is a darned good one.  I'm not sure what makes this work, but I have seen that it has worked great since about 1997 ... The term "eurodollars" should not be confused with the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro
Projected CITs for the S&P 500 are (since COT data is weekly, CITs are +/-):

09/13/2012 high
09/20/2012 low
10/18/2012 high
11/08/2012 low
11/29/2012 HIGH of the Year
12/20/2012 low
01/03/2013 high