The Median Bull Cycle of US Stocks Lasts 32 Months │ Mark Ungewitter

The S&P 500 is up 68% over the 24-month period from October 2022 to October 2024. Since 1932, the median bull cycle has gained 73% over a 32-month span. We have counted 23 bull cycles since 1932. Of the 14 cycles that reached their two-year anniversary, six peaked in year three (43% of the time): 1953-1956, 1966-1968, 1970-1973, 1978-1980, 1987-1990, and 2016-2018.

 

The cyclical advance since October 2022 has reached its minimum targets, but is likely to extend further based on historical patterns. The average year-3 draw-up for all cases since 1949 (using similar labeling) is 12%, with a standard deviation of 9%, suggesting a peak for the S&P 500 of roughly 6,000 to 7,000 over the next eleven months. This is not a forecast, and it's somewhat unremarkable, but it may be useful for shaping expectations.

 

 

Reference:

Mark Ungewitter (November 18, 2024) - The Median Bull Cycle of US-Stocks Lasts 32 Months.

S&P 500 and the 3-Month VIX Relative to the VIX | Stephen Suttmeier

The 3-month VIX relative to the VIX (VIX3M/VIX) is below 1.0 and currently oversold. This tactical sentiment indicator signals fear heading into the 2024 Presidential election. We have observed similar conditions with the VIX3M/VIX being oversold ahead of the 2020 and 2016 Presidential elections. This suggests taking a contrarian bullish view on U.S. equities and supports the likelihood of a year-end rally.

Stephen Suttmeier, November 5, 2024

 

The spot VIX Index is currently above all of its futures contracts, in spite of a drop on November 5th. This is a condition reliably associated with price bottoms (and/or worrisome elections).

Tom McClellan, November 5, 2024 

Unconfirmed Uptrend According to Dow Theory | Stephen Suttmeier

The current position of Dow Theory is an unconfirmed uptrend, or bull market, with new highs for the Industrials (DJIA) and a lack of new highs for the Transports (DJT). 

Until the Transports confirm the highs on the Industrials, this bearish non-confirmation signal for Dow Theory is a market risk.

Stephen Suttmeier — October 17, 2024.

S&P 500 Cup-and-Handle Breakout Targets 5,930 & 6,180 | Stephen Suttmeier

The S&P 500 has experienced a bullish breakout from a cup-and-handle formation that formed between July and September, indicating potential upside targets of 5,930 and 6,180. 

Seasonal trends for the fourth quarter further support these targets. Last week’s tactical breakout appears strong, with support near the 5,775-5,745 range. Importantly, the cup-and-handle pattern remains intact as long as the S&P 500 stays above the 5,600s.

Stephen Suttmeier — October 15, 2024.