Bullish Weekly Price Action in US Stock Indices & Stats | Guilherme Tavares

From a price action perspective, the latest weekly close was quite bullish. Since the 70s, there have been few instances when the SPX reclaimed its 50-week MA within just 1 week after losing it, having previously been in an upward trend.

Average return 5 weeks later: 2.95%, positive 83% of the time.

Guilherme Tavares, March 25, 2025.

 

 NYA, SPY, ES, S&P 500, NQ, YM (weekly candles): 

Weekly Pivots and Retracement Levels.

 

Wednesday, March 26: Continuation or Reversal?

 

Frank Ochoa (March 25, 2025) - Pre-Market Video:
Last Week Compression. This Week Bullish Expansion? (video)

 Oppenheimer: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Trajectory (2020-2025): 

Buy March 23. From April high sideways-to-down into mid May low.

BoA: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Pattern (2015-2025): 

"Buy April Dip for May Rip."

 

Jeff Hirsch: April is the second-best month for DJIA (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950 and
fourth best for NASDAQ (+1.3%) since 1971. Post-election year April performance is just as good.

 

Carl Futia : June S&P E-mini futures headed for new bull market highs. 

Support is now 5800. 

 

Tom Pizzuti (March 25, 2025: "I’m not wholly certain that the wave iii low was set on

March 13th. and thus, open to a new low to complete iii. Of course, I could be wrong."

 

Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%. 

See also:
TPR (March 23, 2025) - Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2.

The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics

Excluding the specifics of the decennial and presidential cycles, the average annual cycle of the S&P 500 since 2004 reveals five consistent seasonal periods, three of which are suitable for high-probability swing trades (90%+):

 

 S&P 500 average annual cycle (2014-2024).

Since the S&P rises 70% of the time, bearish trends are less consistent than bullish ones.

# 1: Mid-February to Late-March Decline: Price action shows an important top between February 14 and 15, followed by a bearish trend lasting into March 20. 

 

 Bearish from February 14-15 High to March 20 Low (2004-2023).

Average move lower: -2.35% (during 12 out of 20 years, down = 60%).

[ ¡ stats in tab referring to February 15 to March 1 (not March 20) - typo, error ?]

# 2: Late-March Rebound: Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has risen 18 times between March 23 and April 27.

 

 Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023).

Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

# 3: July Rally: Since 2009, the S&P 500 has always risen between June 27 and July 25. Not most years. Every single year.

 

 Bullish from June 29 Low to July 25 High (2009-2023).

Average move higher: +4.27% (during 15 out of 15 years, up = 100%).

 

# 4: September Chop: Lack of clear bullish or bearish trends; tentatively sideways to down.

 

September chop between September 1 High to September 30 Low (2009-2023).

Average move higher: +2.77%. Average move lower: -2.63% (during 8 out of 15 years, down = 53%).

# 5: November Rally:  S&P 500 consistently rising since 2004 and averaging a 4.88% gain.

 

Bullish from October 25 Low to November 30 High (2004-2023)

Average move higher: +4.88% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

Reference:

BeSomebodyFX (January 14, 2025) - The S&P 500's Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns. With statistics.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonality (2000-2025).

 

February averaged 0.1% gain over the past 

five decades, with positive results at 56%.

 

Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs

as a % of total Assets Under Management (1996-January 2025).

S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Parties | Robert Miner

Since 1949, the typical pattern of a Post-Election Year is generally flat until late March. The second and fourth quarters are notably bullish, while the first and third quarters tend to be less so. A significant correction in the third quarter is usually followed by a bull trend into year-end. Since 1981, the average trend in Post-Election Years has followed a similar structure but with consistently higher returns (average performance of all Post-Election Years since 1949 +8%, since 1981 +15%).

 

Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%.

That said, Post-Election Year returns have historically favored 1st-Term Democrats. Since 1949, there has been only one instance of a loss during a Post-Election Year with a 1st-Term Democrat, while 4 out of 6 1st-Term Republicans saw losses.

 

 Market Action in Post-Election Years under Republicans and Democrats since 1953.
— Jeffrey A. Hirsch, January 14, 2025.

Data suggests caution in the third quarter during a 1st-Term Republican administration, and the first quarter is typically the worst-performing. Swing traders should wait for the Spring Low to occur between late March and early April before entering long positions. Post-Election Years generally show strong second-quarter performance with a consistent bull trend from the Spring Low to the Summer High (which can occur as early as mid-May), with an average return of around 4%. The Summer High period, from June to August, sees positive returns only in about one-third of Post-Election Years. 

 

The third quarter often trends sideways or down into the Fall Low in late September, with an average decline of around 7% from the Summer High. Since 1949, only one Fall Low to Year-End period has resulted in a loss, compared to an average gain of 7.6%. Since 1981, every Post-Election Year has seen positive gains from the Fall Low, making the Fall Low to Year-End rally the most consistent trend. Since 1981, each Post-Election Year has closed above the lows of September, October, and November, even if some years briefly dipped below. 

 

Reference:
Robert C. Miner (January 31, 2024) - The Definitive Guide to the U.S. Election Cycle and Stock Market Trends: 

Profit from the most consistent cycle in the U.S. economy.

 

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 2, 2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Patterns.

Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy.

Larry Williams (December 24, 2024) - 2025 US Stock Market Outlook.

 

January Market Performance: Last 21 Years (2004–2024), Post-Election Years (1950–2021), and 2025.

— Jeffrey A. Hirsch, January 10, 2025.

S&P 500 Weekly High Expected October 21-22 | Robert Miner

E-mini S&P 500 weekly high probable by next week, ideally around October 21-22 (Mon-Tue). Followed by a 2-3 week correction. And Election Year Fall to Year End net bullish trend.

Robert Miner — October 16, 2024. 

 

On Monday, October 14, the net percentage of S&P 500 members hitting 52-week highs reached the highest level (22%) since March. Forward returns for the S&P 500 have consistently been positive after strong readings in net new highs.

 

 Bespoke — October 16, 2024.

S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025 | Jeff Hirsch

We are revising our 15-Year Projection chart. This was first drawn in 2011 when our book Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It (Wiley) hit the stores. The projection was based upon, drawn from, years of historical patterns and data. In the years to follow numerous unprecedented events occurred, the Fed held its key lending rate in a range of 0 to 0.25% for an incredible seven years, under took multiple rounds of quantitative easing (QE) and essentially pledged unwavering support for the market. Many other nations and central banks around the world were taking similar or even more aggressive steps to support their own economies and markets. Negative interest rates and negative yields on 10-year bonds are not what we consider normal.
 

 

 

Our current updated projection is illustrated in the red line in the chart. In keeping with the history of market performance in pre-election years and the current trajectory of the indices, it would not surprise us for the market to continue rising through April make new high here in Q2, then pause over the weaker summer months before hitting higher highs toward yearend. Next year promises to be an embattled election year and the likelihood of another significant correction or even a bear market are higher.

 

Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (April 11, 2019) - Super Boom Is Underway!

 

 

 David Hickson: Hurst Cycle Projection for NASDAQ and S&P 500 — September 9, 2024.

 

 Jeffrey A. Hirsch: S&P 500 after Quadruple Witching Week — September 17, 2024.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch: S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for September 2024 — September 5, 2024.

   

Jeffrey A. Hirsch: S&P 500 Seasonal Election Year Pattern for 2024 — February 28, 2024.

 

Robert Miner: S&P 500 and the Election Year Cycle — April 25, 2024.

 

 Ned Davis: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2024 — February 2, 2024.

 

Ned Davis: DJIA Presidential Cycle 2024 to 2027 — December 29, 2023. 

 

Ned Davis: Unprecedented Times vs DJIA Election Cycle — August 14, 2024.

 

Nautilus Research: Full View of the S&P 500 Election Cycle — September 1, 2022.

 

  Moore Research: S&P 500 23 Year Seasonal (1997-2019) — January 2, 2020.

Larry Williams: 2024 US Stock Market Outlook — December 15, 2023.

 

 Ned Davis: DJIA Decennial Cycle for 2021-2030 — February 2, 2024.

 

seasonax: DJIA Decennial Cycle & 4 Year Election Cycle — 2024.

 

Don't Panic in or out of a Market | Robert Miner

Beware of FOMO. Don't Panic in or out of a Market. Learn to identify probable market position, specific trade opportunities and trade management.

 

ES U24 - daily closes.

» A "daily" high is likely early next week, followed by a 4-5 day or so decline. «

 

ES U24 - weekly bars.

 » ES is likely to be mostly trendless for another week or two. When the two momentum cycles are 

aligned, a consistent trend will follow. The resolution is likely to eventually be to the upside. «

 Robert Miner @ X — September 14, 2024. 

 

» Don't Panic ! «

Robert Miner @ X — September 4, 2024.

 

See also:

Robert Miner (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500 Uptrend May Extend to 5,800 Into Equinox.  

S&P 500 Uptrend May Extend to 5,800 Into Equinox | Robert Miner

Daily S&P 500 data from the July high shows an an A-B-C correction into August 13. Since then, the S&P 500 has continued upward and sideways, reaching a new high last Friday, August 30. With daily momentum showing a bull reversal, the S&P 500 is expected to remain bullish for the next few days and likely exceed the July high within the next week or two. The daily closing level of 5,798 is a key benchmark to watch.

 

 

Key dates to monitor include the week ending September 20, which aligns with the next Fed announcement and the fall equinox on September 22. Historically, reversals often occur near the fall equinox. If the S&P 500 remains sideways or rises into this period, it could signal the completion of the current upward trend and the onset of a counter-trend move.

 

For the next three weeks, the S&P 500 should target the range of 5,689 to 5,783 based on weekly closing data. Monitoring this range is essential. A weekly close within this range by the week ending September 20 may indicate a potential weekly high. Weekly momentum indicators suggest that the S&P 500 is likely to continue its upward trend for another two to three weeks.

 

Reference:
Robert Miner (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500, Gold and Bitcoin Updates. (video)

 

See also:

Robert Miner (April 26, 2024) - The S&P 500 and the Election Year Cycle.

S&P 500 Voids Potential ABC Correction | Robert Miner

S&P 500 voids potential ABC correction. Bear Reversal signal not made. 

Short term high probable by Friday, May 17th. But decline should be corrective not impulsive.

Robert Miner - May 15, 2024

 

See also:
Robert Miner (April 26, 2024) - The S&P 500 and the Election Year Cycle.