S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025 | Jeff Hirsch

We are revising our 15-Year Projection chart. This was first drawn in 2011 when our book Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It (Wiley) hit the stores. The projection was based upon, drawn from, years of historical patterns and data. In the years to follow numerous unprecedented events occurred, the Fed held its key lending rate in a range of 0 to 0.25% for an incredible seven years, under took multiple rounds of quantitative easing (QE) and essentially pledged unwavering support for the market. Many other nations and central banks around the world were taking similar or even more aggressive steps to support their own economies and markets. Negative interest rates and negative yields on 10-year bonds are not what we consider normal.
 

 

 

Our current updated projection is illustrated in the red line in the chart. In keeping with the history of market performance in pre-election years and the current trajectory of the indices, it would not surprise us for the market to continue rising through April make new high here in Q2, then pause over the weaker summer months before hitting higher highs toward yearend. Next year promises to be an embattled election year and the likelihood of another significant correction or even a bear market are higher.

 

Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (April 11, 2019) - Super Boom Is Underway!

 

 

 David Hickson: Hurst Cycle Projection for NASDAQ and S&P 500 — September 9, 2024.

 

 Jeffrey A. Hirsch: S&P 500 after Quadruple Witching Week — September 17, 2024.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch: S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for September 2024 — September 5, 2024.

   

Jeffrey A. Hirsch: S&P 500 Seasonal Election Year Pattern for 2024 — February 28, 2024.

 

Robert Miner: S&P 500 and the Election Year Cycle — April 25, 2024.

 

 Ned Davis: S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2024 — February 2, 2024.

 

Ned Davis: DJIA Presidential Cycle 2024 to 2027 — December 29, 2023. 

 

Ned Davis: Unprecedented Times vs DJIA Election Cycle — August 14, 2024.

 

Nautilus Research: Full View of the S&P 500 Election Cycle — September 1, 2022.

 

  Moore Research: S&P 500 23 Year Seasonal (1997-2019) — January 2, 2020.

Larry Williams: 2024 US Stock Market Outlook — December 15, 2023.

 

 Ned Davis: DJIA Decennial Cycle for 2021-2030 — February 2, 2024.

 

seasonax: DJIA Decennial Cycle & 4 Year Election Cycle — 2024.

 

Syria Warns the US: "Stop the Oil and Gas Robbery! Get Out Immediately!"

The United States tries to overthrow Syrian governments through different proxies like Israel and the Muslim Brotherhood since the 1970ies, and since 2011 through al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, more radical Jihadi terrorists and militias as well as through substantial US military forces inside of Syria. As a consequence more than half of Syria's population of 23 million is displaced from their homes, 5.5 million fled the country, and estimates of the total number of deaths, in what is framed as 'the Syrian civil war' by the West, vary between 603,064 and about 620,000 as of August 2023. 

 

On September 10, 2023 the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent a letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres and the President of the Security Council Ferit Hoxha, demanding that they put an end to aggressive practices and violations of the principles of international law and the provisions of the UN Charter, which are being committed by the United States of America and its military forces that are illegally present on one third of the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic - on more than sixty thousand square kilometers - in the northeast and in the Al-Tanf region in the southeast of the country (yellowish and light green on the map below). 

 

While the United Nations so far does not even recognize the illegal US presence and occupation in Syria as a fact,
the rate of theft was around 100-130 thousand barrels per day and recently reached 150 thousand barrels per
day in addition to 59.9 million cubic meters of natural gas and 413 thousand tons of domestic gas.

The Ministry pointed out that the United States of America and its tools continue to violate sovereignty and plunder the country’s wealth and strategic resources, with the aim of exacerbating the effects of illegal unilateral coercive measures and depriving Syrians of the capabilities of their homeland and increasing their suffering. The Ministry added that the value of the damage caused to the Syrian oil and mineral wealth sector as a result of acts of aggression, looting and sabotage committed by the US forces and their terrorist tools amounted to a total of $ 115.2 billion during the period from 2011 until the end of the first half of the year 2023. The Ministry stated that the latest statistics and estimates of the losses of the oil sector in Syria show that the value of direct losses amounted to $ 27.5 billion, resulting from the following: The theft, waste and burning of extracted oil quantities estimated at 341 million barrels. The rate of theft was around 100-130 thousand barrels per day and recently reached 150 thousand barrels per day in addition to 59.9 million cubic meters of natural gas and 413 thousand tons of domestic gas. The value is $21.4 billion. Vandalism and theft of facilities, resulting in damages amounting to $ 3.2 billion. 

 

Dana Stroul, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, US-Department of Defense, October 2019:
"The US now owns one third of Syria, all of the hidrocarbons, and the country's food basket. The rest is rubble."

The so-called ‘international coalition’ bombed oil and gas facilities in Syria, with the amount of damage amounting to $2.9 billion. The Ministry continued that the indirect losses amount to $87.7 billion, which represents the value of the lost benefits (from crude oil, natural gas, and domestic gas) as a result of a decrease in production below the planned rates under normal working conditions. Syria demanded that American officials be held accountable for these thefts and that the American administration be forced to compensate for them, end the illegal presence of American forces, and return the lands it occupies, oil and gas fields and other natural resources to the Syrian state to ensure improving the humanitarian and living conditions of the Syrians.

Reference:
SANA (Sep 10, 2023) - Syria: Washington and its terrorist tools continue to plunder Syrian strategic resources.

Map of Syrian Civil War - Syria news and incidents today (live map)
Kevork Almassian (Sep 15, 2023) - Syria's Warning to America: Get Out Immediately and Cease Oil Robbery! (video)

South Front Analysis & Intelligence (2023) - Updates on the Military Situation in Syria.
Wikipedia (2023) - Casualties of the Syrian civil war.

MFA of the People's Republic of China (2023) - US Hegemony and Its Perils.

The Geography of Violence | All Recorded Battles in History

» War is father of all, and king of all.
He renders some gods, others men; he makes some slaves, others free.
We must know that war is common to all and strife is justice,
and that all things come into being and pass away through strife. «
 
Heraclitus (c. 500 BC), Fragments 53 & 80.

Reference:
NodeGoat (2023) - Battles in History. (interactive website) 

See also:
Edward R. Dewey (1957) - Systematic Reconnaissance of Cycles in War.

André Barbault (1967) - The Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War 1900 - 2100.
André Barbault (1967) - Les Astres et l'Histoire.

Youth Bulge Options - A Demographic Theory of War | Gunnar Heinsohn

Today approximately 44 percent of the world’s 7.2 billion people are under 24 years old - and 26 percent are under 14. A staggering 82 percent live in less developed regions of the world – primarily sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Currently, the global median age is 29.2 years, a sharp contrast to Europe, for example, where the median age is 41. Of the 20 states with the lowest median ages worldwide, 18 are in sub-Saharan Africa. The UN predicts that the median age will rise to 42 years by the century’s end, and with it the world’s population will increase to 10.9 billion people. Developing and least developed countries have the highest fertility rates and many are expected to triple in population by 2100. The populations of Burkina Faso, Malawi, Niger, Mali, Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia are predicted to increase by 500%. In these countries demographic pressure is already responsible for food scarcity, water scarcity, malnutrition, and disease. 

The Youth Bulge Theory attempts to explain and to predict social conflict, migration, conquest and war, and was first introduced by the CIA in 1995 (The Demographic Backdrop to Ethnic Conflict: A Geographic Overview). Youth bulge specifically refers to a disproportionate percentage of a state population being between the ages of 15 and 24 years old. But the main point of the Youth Bulge Theory is that an excess in especially young adult male population predictably leads to social unrest, war and terrorism, as the third and fourth sons that find no prestigious positions in their existing societies rationalize their impetus to compete by religion or political ideology. 

In his study Söhne und Weltmacht (Sons and World Power: Terror in the Rise and Fall of Nations; 2003) German genocide expert Gunnar Heinsohn investigated family size in various societies in relation to the frequency of violent conflict since 1500 A.D. He concluded, that the presence of large numbers of young men in nations that have experienced population explosions — all searching for respect, work, sex and meaning — tend to turn into violent countries and become involved in wars. Heinsohn’s demographic materialism is not concerned with the absolute size of populations, but rather with the share of teenagers and young men. If the population under the age of 20 becomes 40% or more compared to the total, society is facing a youth bulge. Serious problems start when families begin to produce three, four or more sons.  Faced with limited resources, the surplus sons' competition for power and prestige does only leave six options: #1 Violent Crime, #2 Civil War, #3 Revolution, #4 Emigration, #5 Genocide, and #6 War of Conquest or Colonization.  
  

This is a man's world:
Somali surplus sons warming up for option #2.

Youth bulge can be seen as one factor among many in explaining social unrest and uprisings in society. But Heinsohn essentially claims that most historical periods of social unrest are lacking external triggers (such as rapid climatic changes or other catastrophic changes of the environment). Even most genocides can be readily explained as a result of a built-up youth bulge, including European colonialism, 20th-century fascism, the rise of Communism during the Cold War, the Arab Spring, and ongoing conflicts such as in Somalia, South Sudan, Central African Republic or in Mali. Since more than a decade Heinsohn keeps warning Western politicians about the too many angry young men outside the Euro-American world today — above all, too many Muslim young men in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. He considers them one of the principal threats to the West in the first quarter of the 21st century, and illustrates this also in the recent examples of Afghanistan and Iraq: Since 1950, Iraqi fathers of all ethnic and religious groups have sired, on the average, three to four sons. They produced a youth bulge. Saddam Hussein canalized this youth bulge in the options #4 to #6 (genocide, war of conquest, numerous Iraqis went into exile). Following Saddam's removal from power the competition for positions of power was transformed into a civil war (option #2) that is being driven by a massive wave of sons. It may not be easy to recognize the current violence as a civil war, because the Americans and their allies are fighting on one of the sides. But the fact that this was a civil war would become clear through its continuation once the US at her allies withdraw. The same phenomenon could be seen — according to Heinsohn — in Afghanistan (see video clip HERE) where the enormous surplus of sons could never be absorbed, in spite of the recruitment of large numbers of police and military personnel. War would therefore inevitably continue in one way or another even after the withdrawal of Western troops.