S&P 500 Weekly High Expected October 21-22 | Robert Miner

E-mini S&P 500 weekly high probable by next week, ideally around October 21-22 (Mon-Tue). Followed by a 2-3 week correction. And Election Year Fall to Year End net bullish trend.

Robert Miner — October 16, 2024. 

 

On Monday, October 14, the net percentage of S&P 500 members hitting 52-week highs reached the highest level (22%) since March. Forward returns for the S&P 500 have consistently been positive after strong readings in net new highs.

 

 Bespoke — October 16, 2024.

The “Gone Fishing” Market

Source: Bespoke (Feb 27, 2017)

The latest example of zero volatility in the market comes courtesy of the S&P 500’s intraday trading range. Over the last 50 sessions, the S&P 500’s average percentage spread between the intraday high and intraday low has been 0.540%. Going back to 1983, when our database of intraday data begins, there has only been one other time where the S&P 500’s 50-day average intraday range was narrower. That was back in early February 1994 when the average range got as low as 0.539%, so the current narrow range is close to a record. But it gets even better.  Barring a big intraday move tomorrow (greater than 1% – an intraday range we haven’t seen since mid-December), the S&P 500’s average daily range will drop below the record low of 0.539% that has been in place for nearly a quarter of a century.

DJIA Performance during Presidential Terms | 1900-2017

Bespoke (Jan 19, 2017) - Through Thursday, the DJIA is up over 148% (not including dividends) since the close on [Obama's] Inauguration Day 2009, and that ranks as the fourth best return for the DJIA under any President since 1900. Calvin Coolidge presided over a gain of 251.7% during his time in office [...] followed by Clinton (227%), and FDR (197%) [...] Hoover presided over a decline of over 80% [...] the second George Bush saw the DJIA fall 22%.

The British Pound's 100-Year Debasement & The City's China Wild Card

Bloomberg (Jul 5, 2016) - Sterling first slumped after coming off the gold standard in 1931 in which it had been overvalued, just as it was in 1944 when it joined the Bretton Woods system of managed exchange rates. Another 30 percent devaluation was swallowed in 1949 and then Wilson sanctioned another drop in 1967 amid Britain’s balance of payments crunch. While the IMF was called in to help avoid a sterling crisis in the 1970s, it fell again in the early 1980s. 

UK Equity Markets Dip Below 5%.
Source: Bespoke (Jul 5, 2016)

The U.K. joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism, a precursor to the Euro, in 1990 but was forced out just two years later because it couldn’t sustain a link to the Deutsche Mark. Now there is speculation that life outside the EU will cost the pound its place in the top tier of reserve currencies. It currently accounts for 5 percent of foreign exchange reserves, according to the IMF. A weaker currency may not do that much to prop up the U.K. economy. While it should boost manufacturing and tourism, three-quarters of the economy is dependent on services such as finance and their future is subject to whatever access to the EU the British government can negotiate. There are also

British Pound Sterling (GBP) to Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY)
Source: www.xe.com

structural weaknesses leaning against the pound. The U.K. ran a near-record current account deficit of 6.9 percent of output in the first quarter and is suffering from weak productivity. Demand remains weak abroad and prices may not be that sensitive to swings in the exchange rate because producers still rely on foreign components for their goods.

Thierry Meyssan (Jul 04, 2016) - The Western Press keeps repeating the same message – by leaving the European Union, the British have isolated themselves from the rest of the world, and will have to deal with terrible economic consequences. And yet, the fall in the Pound could be an advantage within the Commonwealth, which is a far greater family than the Union, and present on all six continents. Famous for its pragmatism, the City could quickly become the international centre for the yuan and implant the Chinese currency in the very heart of the Union [...] The London Stock Exchange announced an agreement with the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS), and, in June, became the primary Stock Exchange in the world to rate Chinese treasury bonds. All the elements were in place to transform the City into a Chinese Trojan Horse in the European Union, to the detriment of US supremacy.

Ahmed Farghaly (Jul 6, 2016): GBPUSD: Contradicting the EUR