As expected, last week, the completion of minor Elliott Waves 4 and 5 led to a bearish weekly reversal, confirming the pattern on schedule and initiating a downward move. We are currently in week 17 of the 20-week cycle, with the cycle low expected within the next 1–3 weeks, likely mid-August, followed by an upward move into September.
Key upcoming milestones include a 40-week low in November or December 2025 and a 40-week high in February or March 2026. Market reversals typically occur gradually rather than with abrupt crashes. Thus, between now and February/March 2026, anticipate a series of highs and lows. After this period, the market is likely to experience a more pronounced decline. For historical parallels, examine the periods of January–August 2000, May–December 2007, and August 2021–March 2022.