Stocks
move in 10-year cycles, which are worked out in 5-year cycles – a
5-year cycle up and a 5-year cycle down. Begin with extreme tops and
extreme bottoms to figure all cycles, either major or minor.
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Rule
1 - A bull campaign generally runs 5 years – 2 years up, 1 year down,
and 2 years up, completing a 5-year cycle. The end of a 5-year campaign
comes in the 59th or 60th months. Always watch for the change in the
59th month.
Rule 2 - A bear cycle often runs 5 years down – the first move 2 years down, then 1 year up, and 2 years down, completing the 5-year downswing.
Rule 3 - Bull or Bear campaigns seldom run more than 3 to 3½ years up or down without a move of 3 to 6 months or one year in the opposite direction, except at the end of Major Cycles, like 1869 and 1929. Many campaigns, culminate in the 23rd month, not running out the full two years. Watch the weekly and monthly charts to determine whether the culmination will occur in the 23rd, 24th, 27th or 30th month of the move, or in extreme campaigns in the 34th to 35th or 41st to 42nd month.
Rule 2 - A bear cycle often runs 5 years down – the first move 2 years down, then 1 year up, and 2 years down, completing the 5-year downswing.
Rule 3 - Bull or Bear campaigns seldom run more than 3 to 3½ years up or down without a move of 3 to 6 months or one year in the opposite direction, except at the end of Major Cycles, like 1869 and 1929. Many campaigns, culminate in the 23rd month, not running out the full two years. Watch the weekly and monthly charts to determine whether the culmination will occur in the 23rd, 24th, 27th or 30th month of the move, or in extreme campaigns in the 34th to 35th or 41st to 42nd month.
Rule 4 - Adding 10 years to any top, it will
give you top of the next 10-year cycle, repeating about the same average
fluctuations.
Rule 5 - Adding 10 years to any bottom, it will give you the bottom of the next 10-year cycle, repeating the same kind of a year and about the same average fluctuations.
Rule 6 - Bear campaigns often run out in 7-year cycles, or 3 years and 4 years from any completed bottom. From any complete bottom of a cycle, first add 3 years to get the next bottom; then add 4 years to that bottom to get bottom of 7-year cycle. For example: 1914 bottom – add 3 years, gives 1917, low of panic; then add 4 years to 1917, gives 1921, low of another depression.
Rule 7 - To any final major or minor top, add 3 years to get the next top; then add 3 years to that top, which will give you the third top; add 4 years to the third top to get the final top of the 10-year cycle. Sometimes a change in trend from any top occurs before the end of the regular time period, therefore, you should begin to watch the 27th, 34th, and 42nd month for a reversal.
Rule 8 - Adding 5 years to any top, it will give the next bottom of a 5-year cycle. In order to get top of the next 5-year cycle, add 5 years to any bottom. For example: 1917 was bottom of a big bear campaign; add 5 years gives 1922, top of a minor bull campaign. Why do I say, “Top of a minor bull campaign?” Because the major bull campaign was due to end in 1929.
Rule 5 - Adding 10 years to any bottom, it will give you the bottom of the next 10-year cycle, repeating the same kind of a year and about the same average fluctuations.
Rule 6 - Bear campaigns often run out in 7-year cycles, or 3 years and 4 years from any completed bottom. From any complete bottom of a cycle, first add 3 years to get the next bottom; then add 4 years to that bottom to get bottom of 7-year cycle. For example: 1914 bottom – add 3 years, gives 1917, low of panic; then add 4 years to 1917, gives 1921, low of another depression.
Rule 7 - To any final major or minor top, add 3 years to get the next top; then add 3 years to that top, which will give you the third top; add 4 years to the third top to get the final top of the 10-year cycle. Sometimes a change in trend from any top occurs before the end of the regular time period, therefore, you should begin to watch the 27th, 34th, and 42nd month for a reversal.
Rule 8 - Adding 5 years to any top, it will give the next bottom of a 5-year cycle. In order to get top of the next 5-year cycle, add 5 years to any bottom. For example: 1917 was bottom of a big bear campaign; add 5 years gives 1922, top of a minor bull campaign. Why do I say, “Top of a minor bull campaign?” Because the major bull campaign was due to end in 1929.
1919 was top; adding 5 years to 1919 gives 1924 as bottom of a 5-year bear cycle. Refer to Rules 1 and 2, which tell you that a bull or bear campaign seldom runs more than 2 to 3 years in the same direction. The bear campaign from 1919 was 2 years down – 1920 and 1921; therefore, we only expect one-year rally in 1922; then 2 years down – 1923 and 1924, which completes a 5-year bear cycle.
Looking back to 1913 and 1914, you will see that 1923 and 1924 must be bear years to complete the 10-year cycle from the bottoms of 1913-1914. Then note 1917 bottom of the bear year; adding 7 years gives 1924 also as bottom of a bear cycle. Then, adding 5 years to 1924 gives 1929 top of a cycle.
» The ten-year cycle continues to repeat, but the greatest advances and declines occur at the end of the 20-year and 30-year cycles, and again at the end of the 50-year and 60-year cycles, which are stronger than the others. «
Quoted from:
W.D. Gann (1950s) - Stock Market Course (p. 217).
W.D. Gann (1950s) - Stock Market Course (p. 217).
See also:
