2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential & Decennial Cycles | NDR

The S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026, developed by Ned Davis Research, is a predictive model aggregating historical seasonal, presidential, and decennial cycles based on daily data from 1928 to 2024. The cycle composite projects an approximate +5.38% annual return. Major swings: Rise from January to mid-April. Drawdown into early-October. Recovery into year-end.

  

2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential, and Decennial Cycles.

 Ned Davis Research, December 31, 2025.

 

■ Q1 (January-March): Robust early-year momentum with minor fluctuations, accumulating +3.8% by late March.

■ Q2 (April-June): Early peak followed by initial decline and volatility, with a net pullback of around -1.0%.

■ Q3 (July-September): Continued oscillations with a downward bias, losses of around -0.8%.

■ Q4 (October-December): Trough early in the quarter, then sharp rally to year-end; gains of about +3.4%.

 

See also:

Nicholas D. Savino (January 1, 2026) - January 2026 S&P 500 Forecast. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.
Namzes (January 5, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500.
Namzes (January 1, 2026) - 2026 US Stock Market Forecast: 25% Bear Market and Recovery.

Larry Williams (December 25, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities.

Equities Expensive and Commodities Cheap?

Incrementum AG (Jun 1, 2017) - In a historical context, the relative valuation of commodities to equities seems extremely low. In relation to the S&P500, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) is currently trading at the lowest level in 50 years. 

The chart outlines the valuation of the GSCI relative to the S&P500. The GSCI comprises 24 commodities from all commodity sectors and serves as a benchmark for investment in the commodity markets and as a measure of commodity performance over time. If the ratio is low (green circles), it means that commodities are cheap relative to shares. If the ratio is at a high level (red circles), like during the Gulf Crisis in 1990, the prices of raw materials are relatively expensive.

The current ratio is 0.87 while the median is at 4.1. A return to the median gives 371% potential, but in most cases a rally doesn't stop at the median. In absolute terms, the scene seems set for a new bull market for commodities. According to Ned Davis Research, commodities gained 217% on average over the period of a bull market.