S&P 500 After Rapid 10% Gains: +17% Avg One-Year Return | Alex Krainer

Historical S&P 500 data shows that sharp 10% rallies over a 10-day span tend to exhibit strong follow-through. On average, returns have been approximately +0.6% after one week, +2.5% after one month, and +17% over the following year.

Rapid 10%+ bounces in the S&P 500 (weekly candles), 1980 to 2026.

A review of the weekly S&P 500 chart from 1980 to 2026 highlights multiple instances of these "rapid +10% bounces," marked by green and red arrows. In most cases, these moves were followed by continued upside, though there were notable exceptions—such as the period around 2000.

 

Alex Krainer argues that the current setup differs meaningfully from the 2000  episode. He notes the absence of broadly synchronized overbought conditions among megacap stocks today, and emphasizes that the more significant declines in 2000 occurred only after the index had already fallen below its 40-week moving average.
 

S&P 500 RSI readings above 70 have led to pullbacks in 8 of the last 10 cases over two years, with the other two resulting in flat consolidation. The daily chart (May 2024–April 2026) marks these signals with red arrows for pullbacks and one green arrow, alongside recent price action near 7,000. This suggests an 80% likelihood of a near-term pullback, though prior corrections since the 2025 rally have been relatively mild.

Reference:
Alex Krainer (April 16, 2026) - Rapid S&P 500 10% rallies in 10 days historically show strong follow-through. 

 

Jeffrey Hirsch notes that the S&P 500's 7.57% gain in the first 10 trading days of April 2026 ranks as the second-strongest start to April since 1950.

Gains averaged +10.8% for the rest of the year, with full-year returns positive in 91.7% of cases (+16.2% avg.).

Historically, such powerful early-April momentum has been a bullish signal: in 20 of 24 comparable cases (83.3%), the market delivered further gains over the remainder of the year, with an average advance of +10.8%. Full-year returns were positive in 22 of those 24 instances (91.7%), averaging +16.2%. Hirsch’s data also segments April starts into performance tiers, with 2026 firmly in the top group—where subsequent returns have consistently outpaced those seen in the middle and bottom tiers.

S&P Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update | Steve Miller

The upcoming week marks the pre-election period, where heightened election anxiety and a significant earnings schedule are expected to drive high volatility. This trend is likely to continue through election day. Historical analysis shows that the September to November timeframe has often been associated with increased risk, frequently leading to substantial market corrections.

 

SPY (weekly bars), the MACD, and the extreme stretch between the 13-week and 89-week 

moving averages, which historically always leads to extended corrections.

 

Stocks have demonstrated remarkable resilience, displaying behavior that can be characterized as extreme. The above weekly chart of the SPY highlights this dynamic, tracking the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) alongside the distance between the 13-week and 89-week moving averages. Currently, the MACD indicates an unusually wide gap between these averages, suggesting a potential correction on the horizon.

 SPY (weekly bars), six-month cycles, three-month cycles.

When such corrections occur, they can be quite severe. Although the market has remained strong, November and December are anticipated to experience downturns due to the current extremes, which could lead to several challenging weeks ahead. Nevertheless, broader analysis suggests that the bull market may extend into 2025 before facing a significant downturn, potentially resulting in years of low or negative returns in the stock market.

 SPY (daily bars) and 21-trading day cycles with projected ideal troughs around 

November 6 (Wed) and December 4 (Wed), with a margin of ±3 trading days.

An examination of the SPY across various timeframes, including weekly and two-hour metrics, reveals a deterioration in the two-hour indicators, often the first sign of an impending correction. Historical examples, such as the market's reaction following the 2016 Trump election, highlight the potential for volatility. On that occasion, the Dow fell nearly 800 points before rebounding. Similar large movements are anticipated in the days leading up to and following this forthcoming election. While signs of a downturn have been expected for weeks, the market continues to set the course, underscoring its ultimate authority.

Reference:
Steve Miller (October 25, 2024) - S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update (video)

 

 

Hurst Cycles in the S&P 500 — David Hickson, October 9, 2024.

Algo vs SPY | Handler & Associates, Inc.

Reference:
Handler & Associates, Inc. (May 5, 2024) - OSS Nightly Indicators. Tonight's Free Charts - Email Newsletter.

Smart Money Went Long USD 5 Billion in S&P 500 Index Futures Last Week = 3rd Highest of Current Bull Market

The indicator is simply the difference in "Smart Money" confidence versus "Dumb Money" Confidence. If the Dumb Money
Confidence is at 100%, then that means that these bad market timers are supremely confident in a market rally. And
history suggests that when these traders are confident, we should be very, very worried that the market is about to
decline. When the Dumb Money Confidence is at 0%, then from a contrary perspective we should be [buying stocks],
expecting these traders to be wrong again and the market to rally. Buying the market the day this indicator flashes
green, and simply holding long for three months, makes money 95% of the time (Jason Goepfert ‏@sentimentrader).

Moon and Stocks - The Four Lunar Month Cycle

Markets repeat directly or inversely somewhere between (+/- 2 days) the 4 Lunar Month Cycle (118.12 Days)
and the average synodic period of Mercury (116.88 Days). More on the Delta Phenomenon HERE - Please note:
Inversions of polarity oftentimes occur +/- 2 weeks around equinoxes and solstices (HERE)

Delta-Pattern on Track

Also see HERE + HERE.

www.astrocycle.net