US Stock Rally vs. Market Breadth | Jason Goepfert

The indices soared [on Wednesday, November 6] while the average stock did not. It was one of the worst-ever days for participation on a day the S&P 500 jumped more than 2.5%.

S&P 500 after a >2.5% gain with less than 70% NYSE up issues and up volume.

On the NYSE, fewer than 70% of issues rose, and less than 70% of volume flowed into those issues. This has only happened 3 unique times - the aftermath of the 1987 and 2020 crashes and around the 2000 peak.

Jason Goepfert, November 7, 2024.

 

 S&P 500 futures after gapping up more than 1% the day after the US presidential election.

 

On track for only the 3rd gap up of more than +1% the morning after an election since the inception of S&P 500 futures. The other two were pretty, pretty good.

 

  Jason Goepfert, November 6, 2024.

Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points │ Jeff Hirsch

The first 5-6 trading days are typically bullish, followed by weakness in the week before Thanksgiving. The DJIA and S&P 500 strength has shifted to mirror the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the most bullish days occurring at the beginning and end of the month.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, November 5, 2024

 

 November Performance in “All Years” (1930-2015) and “Election Years” (1932-2012) 

— Jeff Hirsch, November 15, 2016.

 

November Market Performance (2001-2021) — Jeff Hirsch,  October 20, 2022.

 

 S&P 500 and Nasdaq average performance during the presidential election week.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025.
Ryan Detrick (October 28, 2024) - Best Six-Month Stretch for the S&P 500 Begins in November.

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for November of the Election Year 2024.
Alternative approach: 4-Year Presidential Cycle in Line with the Decennial Cycle.

S&P 500 vs VIX Put/Call Ratio | Jason Goepfert

Volume in VIX puts was more than two times that of calls on Friday.
That's one of the highest turnovers in 15 years.
It has typically spiked at times of extreme anxiety.

Jason Goepfert, November 4, 2024.

 

 Preliminary CBOE Put/Call Volume Ratio on Nov. 4 at 2PM ET 

is officially "pretty far up there".

Tom McClellan, November 4, 2024.

 

 S&P Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections | Steve Miller, November 4, 2024.

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars) | November 4, 2024.

Smart Money Went Long USD 5 Billion in S&P 500 Index Futures Last Week = 3rd Highest of Current Bull Market

The indicator is simply the difference in "Smart Money" confidence versus "Dumb Money" Confidence. If the Dumb Money
Confidence is at 100%, then that means that these bad market timers are supremely confident in a market rally. And
history suggests that when these traders are confident, we should be very, very worried that the market is about to
decline. When the Dumb Money Confidence is at 0%, then from a contrary perspective we should be [buying stocks],
expecting these traders to be wrong again and the market to rally. Buying the market the day this indicator flashes
green, and simply holding long for three months, makes money 95% of the time (Jason Goepfert ‏@sentimentrader).