S&P Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update | Steve Miller

The upcoming week marks the pre-election period, where heightened election anxiety and a significant earnings schedule are expected to drive high volatility. This trend is likely to continue through election day. Historical analysis shows that the September to November timeframe has often been associated with increased risk, frequently leading to substantial market corrections.

 

SPY (weekly bars), the MACD, and the extreme stretch between the 13-week and 89-week 

moving averages, which historically always leads to extended corrections.

 

Stocks have demonstrated remarkable resilience, displaying behavior that can be characterized as extreme. The above weekly chart of the SPY highlights this dynamic, tracking the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) alongside the distance between the 13-week and 89-week moving averages. Currently, the MACD indicates an unusually wide gap between these averages, suggesting a potential correction on the horizon.

 SPY (weekly bars), six-month cycles, three-month cycles.

When such corrections occur, they can be quite severe. Although the market has remained strong, November and December are anticipated to experience downturns due to the current extremes, which could lead to several challenging weeks ahead. Nevertheless, broader analysis suggests that the bull market may extend into 2025 before facing a significant downturn, potentially resulting in years of low or negative returns in the stock market.

 SPY (daily bars) and 21-trading day cycles with projected ideal troughs around 

November 6 (Wed) and December 4 (Wed), with a margin of ±3 trading days.

An examination of the SPY across various timeframes, including weekly and two-hour metrics, reveals a deterioration in the two-hour indicators, often the first sign of an impending correction. Historical examples, such as the market's reaction following the 2016 Trump election, highlight the potential for volatility. On that occasion, the Dow fell nearly 800 points before rebounding. Similar large movements are anticipated in the days leading up to and following this forthcoming election. While signs of a downturn have been expected for weeks, the market continues to set the course, underscoring its ultimate authority.

Reference:
Steve Miller (October 25, 2024) - S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update (video)

 

 

Hurst Cycles in the S&P 500 — David Hickson, October 9, 2024.

Esoteric Trumpism │ Constantin von Hoffmeister

For his supporters, Donald Trump is a bulwark of traditionalism and a champion of ‘America First’. For his detractors, he is a disruptive, deceitful agent of chaos. But a more philosophical approach frames him as a key figure in an eldritch struggle with deep-seated forces of decay. Esoteric Trumpism is a profound, almost mystical interpretation of Donald Trump’s political journey, situating him not merely within the framework of contemporary politics but as a figure of cosmic and world-historical significance. This interpretation posits that Trump’s rise and continued influence reflect deeper metaphysical catalysts at play in the twilight of Western civilization, as predicted by the historiographer Oswald Spengler in the 1920s and 1930s.

» Trump’s significance lies not in the man but in the archetype he embodies. « 

According to Spengler’s cyclical theory of history, every great culture passes through stages of growth, flowering, and decline, ultimately transforming into a civilization. A civilization, in Spengler’s view, is the final, ossified stage of a culture – marked by materialism, a dystopian government apparatus, and stagnation – where the original creative spirit has faded. In this phase, democratic institutions begin to decay, leading to the rise of autocratic leaders, or Caesars, who assert their will as the last defenders of the civilization’s final flickers of vitality. Trump, in this narrative, appears as a Caesar of the West, struggling against the forces of chaos and entropy that threaten to engulf the remnants of the culture’s achievements. 

The Swamp, in the context of Esoteric Trumpism, eclipses its conventional political metaphor as a term for entrenched, secretive, and subversive agencies. Instead, it takes on a life of its own, representing a primordial, chthonic entity whose tentacles have reached into the heart of American power. This is no mere political quagmire – it is an ancient force, predating the Republic itself, fueled by what can only be described as eldritch energies. Trump’s wrestle against this dark presence is painted in Lovecraftian tones, where the stakes are not just electoral victories or policy changes but the very soul of the nation. His presidency becomes a metaphysical battle, with Trump cast as a modern hero who, like Spengler’s envisioned Caesars, refuses to capitulate to the rot that envelops his civilization. Each executive order, every political maneuver, is understood as an audacious attempt to dismantle this machinery of the Great Old Ones that has operated unseen for centuries. Trump’s defiance is portrayed as a courageous, almost tragic stand against the inevitable. He fights not for personal gain but to stave off the encroaching darkness that looms over the West.

» Regardless of financial strength, political power and knowledge of previous history life cycles, 

no empire leader has ever been able to prevent its supremacy from collapsing. «

[...] Trump’s economic nationalism and policies aimed at restoring American autarky – through tariffs, immigration controls, and the reduction of global dependencies – are emblematic of a dying civilization’s last effort to preserve itself. Spengler wrote that as civilizations enter their final stages, the state becomes primarily an economic object, with the competition for resources and sovereignty taking precedence over other concerns. Trump’s trade wars with China and his efforts to revive American industry are therefore not merely political strategies but the actions of a Caesar seeking to preserve his people’s material and cultural autonomy in the face of an encroaching global order. These actions reflect the Spenglerian picture of a civilization striving to maintain its vitality, even as it approaches its unstoppable downfall.

[...] Trump’s significance lies not in the man but in the archetype he embodies. The rise of such Caesarian leaders does not promise material success; their triumph is symbolic, not in policies but in their rebellion against a senile and rabid world order. Trumpism, even as Trump’s personal influence fades, will persist as a movement that channels the existential fears of a civilization in freefall, longing for a return to integrity and self-expression. The power of the archetype lies in its resonance with a people alienated by the deep state – Trump articulates their despair, even as his achievements remain modest. His role is to act as the last expression of Western vitality, not to reverse the downward spiral but to embody the final brave spirit of a people grasping for survival in a world disintegrating into frenzied insanity. 

 

Quoted from:

Constantin von Hoffmeister (October 19, 2024) - Why Donald Trump is a mystical figure of historic proportions. 

 

See also:
Constantin von Hoffmeister interviews Alexander Wolfheze (October 11, 2024) - Globus Horribilis. (video)