- When Toy2mt is greater than 3%, the following year is 36-2 for an average gain of 16.7%.
- When Toy2mt is negative, the following year is 7-11 for an average loss of 2.6%.
- The 2025 Toy2mt came in at 1.35%. The above table shows the post-1950 performance, in which Toy2mt came in at 0-3%, which is considered the neutral signal range.
Monday, January 20, 2025
The Toy2mt Barometer Signals Neutrality for 2025 │ Wayne Whaley
Sunday, December 1, 2024
The Status of the TOY Barometer at the End of November | Wayne Whaley
The way equity markets move from one year to the next often provides insight into what to expect in the following year. One of my favorite Turn of the Year (TOY) barometers is Toy2mt, which tracks the S&P 500's performance over the two months from November 19 to January 19. Historically, when the S&P shows a gain of 3% or more during this period, it has performed very well over the following 12 months (36-2 record, with an average return of 16.6%). I have found that the November component of Toy2mt (November 19-30) serves as an early indicator of what may lie ahead for Toy2mt and the year to come.
As of November 30, six of the first seven Toy2mt days were positive, and the November segment of Toy2mt stands at +1.98%, with bulls targeting a +3% Toy2mt return. Below is the performance for the following 12 months (December-November) since 1950, based on three different levels of the November 19-30 segment of Toy2mt.
When the November 19-30 period registers +1.5% or higher, it has typically been a positive signal for the following 12 months (December-November). In 2024, the November 19-30 period came in at +1.98%. It’s still early, and we will learn much more over the next seven weeks.
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
20-Year High in Insider Selling Precedes Market Top | Adam Taggart
2. Corporate executives are selling far more stock than they are buying.
3. It doesn't take a genius to see that the insiders are cashing out while the getting is good,
Saturday, October 19, 2024
S&P Performance After Back-to-Back Double-Digit Years │ Wayne Whaley
There have been three occasions of at least four consecutive double-digit years: 1942-1945, 1949-1952, and five consecutive years during the early phase of the technology revolution from 1995-1999. This does not include the eight consecutive positive years in the 1980s, of which six were double-digit gains. Therefore, there is precedent for the rally to continue, especially if one believes we are in the second chapter of the technology revolution, driven by advances in AI.
Sunday, October 6, 2024
October 27: Key Date for the Year-End Rally | Wayne Whaley
A closer look at the historical data from the previous 14 cases reveals a pattern: while there tends to be some weakness in the second week of October, this is often followed by an "End of Year" rally starting around October 27. In fact, 13 out of the 14 instances recorded were positive from that date through the end of the year, with only a minor fractional loss occurring in 1964. Worth noting, four of the last five years have also seen positive performances during the period from October 7 to 15.
Sunday, September 29, 2024
The S&P 500 After the Current Six-Month Pattern | Wayne Whaley
Since 1950, this six-month pattern of one decline followed by five consecutive increases (Down-Up-Up-Up-Up-Up) has occurred 29 times. In 27 of those instances, the S&P was higher 12 months later, with an average gain of 12.8%.
Saturday, September 21, 2024
S&P 500 in Q4 After New 12-Month High in September | Wayne Whaley
Sunday, September 15, 2024
September 19-26 Weakest Seasonal S&P Week of the Year | Wayne Whaley
2. Weights the most recent years 2 to 1 vs those 50 years prior.
Saturday, August 31, 2024
S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October | Wayne Whaley
This period is followed by one of the strongest periods of the year, from October 28th to November 5th. In years with a summer gain of over 5%, this timeframe has averaged a gain of 2.61%, with a performance record of 21 gains and 1 loss.
Monday, August 12, 2024
After +10% January-July and a Negative First Half of August | Wayne Whaley
The following August 14-January time frame was 14-2 in this setup for an average 5 1/2 months gain of 9.34%. The 5% moves were 12-0 to the positive with the worst drawdown as measured from August 14 of the single digit variety.
The weakest period, on average, was September 23-October 2 which was 6-10 for an average loss of 0.90%. The strongest time frame was October 27-January 20 which was positive in all 16 of those setups for an average, 8 week, gain of 7.27%.
Wayne Whaley (August 10, 2024) - When a negative 1st two weeks of August is preceded by a +10% January-July.
» After an early August selloff, the market has tended to spend the balance of August bouncing
Monday, June 17, 2024
The Summer Rally | Wayne Whaley
- The June 19 - 27 period which is strongly correlated to the June Post Opex week has been negative in this setup in 17 of the last 19 years.
- The last 14 cases has seen June27 - July23 positive, as well as 25 of the last 29 cases, the so called summer rally time frame you have heard speak of.
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
During June the S&P 500 tends to be true to the trend | Wayne Whaley
2. January - May was 0-8% and
3. January - May was greater then 8%.
In those 35 years in which the S&P was positive for the 1st five months of the year, the month of June was 27-8 with the 3% June moves, 12-1 in the positive direction as opposed to a 4-11 June record in those years where the 1st five months of the year were negative with the 3% June moves 1-4.
In particular, the +8% January-May starts saw June averaging a 2.34% gain. As of Tuesday's close, May 28, the S&P is up 11.24% for the first five months of 2024.
Sunday, May 26, 2024
Top Ten S&P 500 Seasonal Periods after a +5% January-May | Wayne Whaley
Sunday, May 19, 2024
A New High in May - Makes the Fall Rally a Strong Play | Wayne Whaley
Since 1950, there have been 27 prior years of those 74 in which a High for the rolling year was set in May. In those 27 cases, the following June-December performance was 23-4 for an avg 7.58%, seven month gain. The 10% moves during the final seven months of those 27 calendar years were 12-0 to the positive side.
The fall rally I reference is Aug25-Dec8 with 26 wins after a May High vs on fractional loss. The scan deemed June21-July01 as the weakest period with a 12-14 mark for a modest 0.26% avg loss.
Sunday, March 24, 2024
S&P 500 March-April 2024 Seasonality │ Jeff Hirsch & Wayne Whaley
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 9, 2023, through (March 21, 2024), DJIA is up 18.4% and S&P 500 is up 20.9%. Fueled by interest rate cut expectations and AI speculation, these gains are approximately double the historical average already and could continue to increase before the “Best Months” come to an end.
This AI-fueled bull market has enjoyed solid gains since last October and will likely continue to push higher in the near-term, but momentum does appear to be waning with the pace of gains slowing. With April and the end of DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months” quickly approaching we are going to begin shifting to a more cautious stance. We maintain our bullish stance for 2024, but that does not preclude the possibility of some weakness during spring and summer.