This study looks at the S&P performance from June19 - July23 in those 29 years of the last 40 in which the trailing Quarter, March19 - June19 was positive. As of June 15, the March19 - June19 time frame, with three trading days remaining, is up 4.89% for 2024. The June19 - July23 reaction period will be split into two measures which have distinctly different characteristics, namely June19 - 27 and June27 - July23.
- The June 19 - 27 period which is strongly correlated to the June Post Opex week has been negative in this setup in 17 of the last 19 years.
- The last 14 cases has seen June27 - July23 positive, as well as 25 of the last 29 cases, the so called summer rally time frame you have heard speak of.