The Toy2mt Barometer Signals Neutrality for 2025 │ Wayne Whaley

The S&P's performance from November 19 to January 19 has an interesting history of accurately predicting the direction of the S&P over the subsequent 12 months. I refer to this time frame as Toy2mt (Turn of the Year - Two months).  See November 23rd Post. 

 Neutral Toy2mt Signal Performance since 1950 = Average 9.3% Annual Gain.

 

• When Toy2mt is greater than 3%, the following year is 36-2 for an average gain of 16.7%.
• When Toy2mt is negative, the following year is 7-11 for an average loss of 2.6%.
• The 2025 Toy2mt came in at 1.35%.  The above table shows the post-1950 performance, in which Toy2mt came in at 0-3%, which is considered the neutral signal range.

Neutral Toy signal performance is in line with historic norms, as 73.7% of post-1950 Toy years have been positive for an average gain of 9.3%. I have other Toy Barometers with similar forecasting acumen that are still works in progress, which I defer to when Toy2mt is inconclusive.

Wayne Whaley, January 18, 2025.

 

MAG 7 January 2025 Seasonality Charts. 

 

 See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 17, 2025) - Market Bounce After December Low Breach Encouraging.