"Bull Hook" Toby Crabel Price Pattern in the S&P 500

The Toby Crabel Bull Hook pattern, present on July 18 (Fri), in the S&P 500 Cash Index, implies a potential short-term upward move for trading starting July 21, 2025. 

 

A Bull Hook happens when a bar has a lower range than the previous one, with its opening price

higher than the previous bar’s high and its closing price lower than the previous bar’s close.

 

Price action created the narrowest range of the last 8 days with a lower daily close. The daily bar has a "hook" shape (a bull flag on lower timeframes), hinting at a potential reversal to the upside due to consolidation and a shift in sentiment. The Bull Hook pattern is generally bullish, opening above the previous day's high and closing lower with a narrowing range. It's often followed by upward price moves in the days after. 

 

A recent analysis by Ali Casey provides additional insights. The Bull Hook pattern has limitations, including its better performance in trending or volatile markets, the potential for false signals and losses in some cases, and its reliance on precise execution, which can be influenced by news or macroeconomic events.
 

Reference:

Toby Crabel (1990) - Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns And Opening Range Breakout. 

Ali Casey (2024)  - Toby Crabel’s Bull Hook Trading Strategy Tested. 

 MyPivots.com (2025) - Scanner for Toby Crabel Price Patterns.

S&P 500 Rally Returns to Midpoint of Long-Term Channel | Deutsche Bank

The S&P 500 has rallied about 25% in 3 months to hit record highs, which seems impressive. But it is only 2% above the February peak; i.e., over the last 5 months, it is up 5% at an annualized rate. And year-to-date, it is up 6.5%, or 12.5% at an annualized rate. In historical context, these numbers do not stand out.

The S&P 500 has just caught back up to the middle of its post Global Financial Crisis channel, 

and price gain so far this year is in line with the long-run median outside of recessions.
 

The median annual gain for the S&P 500 over the last 100 years is about 11.5%. And if one were to look only at years without recessions, it is 13%; for those with positive returns, the median is a whopping 19.5%. Indeed, the S&P 500 trends upward over time with occasional selloffs, and over the last 15 years—i.e., since the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009)—it has been in a strong but wide channel rising at an annual rate of 12.5%. The rally has just taken it back to the middle of this channel, where it was at the February peak. 

 

Deutsche Bank, July 13, 2025.

 

  » Volatility is the toll we pay to invest. «

 

Since 1980 the median annual drawdown of the S&P 500 is 11% for all years,

and it's the same for election years (red boxes). 

 

» US stock market is among the three most overvalued in 100 years. « 

 

 Dow Industrials Four-Year Presidential Cycle 2024-2027, Ned Davis Research, 2024.

The Four-Year Presidential Cycle aligned with the Decennial Cycle, 1900–2024.

See also:
Wayne Whaley (July 6, 2025)  - The S&P 500 Jumps 26% in 86 Calendar Days: What's Next? 

"8 Bar Narrow Range" (8BNR) Toby Crabel Price Pattern in the NASDAQ

The 8 Bar Narrow Range (8BNR) is a technical trading pattern developed by Toby Crabel, introduced in his book "Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout". 

 

8 Bar Narrow Range (8BNR) pattern in the NASDAQ on July 11, 2025.

 

It is part of his framework of price action patterns that focus on periods of volatility contraction (narrow price ranges) as precursors to potential volatility expansion (significant price movements). Here's an explanation of what the 8BNR pattern suggests and its implications for traders:

The 8BNR pattern occurs when the 8-day range (the difference between the highest high and the lowest low over an 8-day period) is the narrowest range compared to any other 8-day period within the last 40 trading sessions. This indicates a period of low volatility or price consolidation, where the market has been trading in a relatively tight range over the past eight days compared to recent history.

The 8BNR signals a potential breakout, but it does not specify the direction. Traders often use the pattern in conjunction with Crabel’s ORB strategy:

 

Long Trade: Place a buy stop order at the open price plus the "stretch" (a calculated value based on the 10-day simple moving average of the smaller difference between the open and high/low).
Short Trade: Place a sell stop order at the open price minus the stretch.

 

Crabel’s research suggests that breakouts are more likely to be profitable if they occur early in the trading session. Trades triggered later in the day carry higher risk and may warrant smaller position sizes or avoidance of overnight holds. The 8BNR is more reliable when it occurs after a clear trend or during a pullback in a trending market. Multiple narrow range patterns in close proximity (e.g., consecutive NR7 or 3BNR, 4BNR, 8BNR days) may indicate congestion, reducing the reliability of the breakout.

Price always moves from Consolidation to Expansion,

never from Consolidation to Reversal or from Consolidation to Retracement. 

Like all technical patterns, the 8BNR is not foolproof. False breakouts, market noise, or unexpected events can lead to losses. Traders should avoid mechanical application and incorporate additional technical or fundamental analysis to confirm signals. Always combine the pattern with other market analysis for best results.

  

Reference:
Toby Crabel (1990) - Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns And Opening Range Breakout. 

orderbloque (March 1, 2025)  - Market Logic Based on Liquidity, Volume, and Inefficiency. 

Larry Williams (January 20, 2025)  - How Markets Move: The Natural Cycle of Range Change. 

 TPR (August 23, 2024)  - Recent Toby Crabel Price Pattern Setups in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures.

Toby Crabel (June 14, 2024)  - The Principle of Contraction/Expansion.

TPR (December 13, 2018)  - From Contraction to Breakout to Expansion.

Structural Characteristics of Bullish and Bearish Months | D'onte Goodridge

Traders want to find trending markets but often fail to see and understand the structural characteristics of bullish and bearish months. Both move in a similar fashion but inverse to one another. Here are the characteristics for the formation of a bullish month:

 

 

The first example is a daily chart of US Dollar versus Japanese Yen (USDJPY) during February 2023. The market was trending up. It was a bullish month. Let's identify the five key factors to a bullish month:

1. Price moves below the monthly opening price.
2. A swing low forms below the month's open.
3. Price purges a previous daily low (PDL) and reverses back to a previous daily high (PDH).
4. The market creates a market structure shift (MSS) to the upside and an Imbalance or Fair Value Gap (FVG).
5. Higher swing highs and higher swing lows form.

 

Looking at the daily candles in the USDJPY chart, we see the methodical sequence of a Bullish Month developing:
 

1. Price was movesg below the monthly opening price. Price stops below it, runs up, drops below it, runs up and continues the bullish trend.
2. A swing low below the month's open forms. This is a swing low because the candle on the left has a higher low and the candle on the right has a higher low, hence the low in the middle is the lowest point. To form a swing low  only takes three bars.
3. Price purges a previous low and works back to a previous high. The following day price reverses back to the previous daily high, all happening within a three bar setup, creating a swing low, which is a purge on the previous daily low and a reversal back to a previous daily high.
4. Next the market creates a shift to the upside with speed through a previous swing high and a FVG.
5. And price created a new swing high and a higher swing low.

The next example is a daily chart of Apple during January 2023. The same five criteria for a Bullish Month were met:

 

Now let's look at the five key factors to a Bearish Month:

1. Price moves above the monthly opening price.
2. A swing high forms above the month's open.
3. Price purges a previous daily high and reverses back to a previous daily low.
4. The market creates a shift to the downside and a FVG.
5. Lower swing highs and lower swing lows form.

 

The first example is a daily chart of British Pound versus US Dollar during August 2022. The market was trending down. Identify the above listed five criteria for the formation of a Bearish Month:

 

 

The last example is a daily chart of Gold during February 2023. Gold was in a down trend. Identify the structural criteria for the formation of a Bearish Month:

 

Reference:
D'onte Goodridge a.k.a. Forensic Forex (2023) - Characteristics of Bullish & Bearish Months. (video)  

 

 

 

See also:
Larry Williams (1998/2011) - Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading, 2nd Edition.

 Michael J. Huddleston (2017) - ICT Weekly Range Profiles.

Daye (2023) - The Quarterly Theory.

 

The Principle of Contraction/Expansion | Toby Crabel

Price always moves from Consolidation to Expansion, never from Consolidation to Reversal or from Consolidation to Retracement. 

 

After an Expansion, two possible scenarios can occur: either a Retracement or a Reversal, followed by another Expansion or Consolidation. That’s it—it happens over and over again. 

» The principle of Contraction/Expansion is defined as the market phenomenon of change from a period of rest to a period of movement back to a period of rest. This interaction between the phases of motion and rest are constantly taking place, with one phase directly responsible for the others' existence. «

 

Toby Crabel, 1990
 

In his study 'Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout' Toby Crabel defined the following range contraction and expansion patterns:

NR4 - The narrowest daily range relative to the previous three day’s daily ranges compared individually.
NR7 - A day with a daily range that is narrower than the previous six day’s daily ranges compared individually.
WS4 - (Widespread 4) A day with a daily range that is larger than any of the previous three day’s daily ranges.
WS7 - (Widespread 7) A day with a daily range that is larger than any of the previous six day’s daily ranges

             compared individually.

His key findings were: A cumulative total of Gross Profits for the contraction patterns vs expansion patterns on trades in the direction of the move off the open showed $710,000 for contractions on 7,313 trades and $102,000 for expansions on 7,524 trades. Profits were seven times larger for ORB (Opening Range Breakout) trades after contractions than expansions.

» Clearly something is going on here. The suggestion from these results is that one should be looking to go with a forceful move off the open after a contraction and not willing to do so after an expansion. In fact, fading price action off the open, with trend, after an expansion is a consideration. Other patterns can help with the decision on whether to fade a move off the open along with previously mentioned market context. If nothing else, one should be aware of the dangers of ORB trades the day after a big directional day. Caution is necessary after expansions. This is when the most attention is given to the market by the novice trades who invariably get caught in whipsaws and trendless markets. «  

 The more defined the congestion area, the better the chances for a Trend Day activity the following day.

Bitcoin - Inside Bar Narrow Range 4 (ID/NR4) in monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hour bar charts.

» An object at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed 

and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force. «
Isaac Newton's 'First Law of Motion', 1687

 

Reference:
Toby Crabel (1990) - Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns And Opening Range Breakout.

Jack Corsellis (2023) - Toby Crabel - Secret Trading Strategies of Billionaire Trader Revealed. (video)

Jarrod Goodwin (2023) - Testing Toby Crabel's Narrow Range NR4 Breakout Strategy on Daily and 4 Hour Time Frames. (video)
Ali Casey (2023) - Toby Crabel's Narrow Range NR4 Pattern. (video)

Swing Points as Trend Change Indication | Larry Williams

A trend change from up to down occurs when a short-term high is exceeded on the upside, a short-term trend change from down to up is identified by price going below the most recent short-term low. The first chart depicts such trend changes in a classic manner, study it well because reality comes next! Here are a couple of pointers on this technique. Although the penetration of one of these short-term highs, in a declining market, indicates a trend reversal to the upside, some penetrations are better than others.

» There are only two ways a short-term high or low is broken. «

There are only two ways a short-term high or low is broken. In an up trending market, the low that is violated or fallen below will be either a low prior to making a new rally high, as shown at (A) in the second figure, or a low that occurs after decline of a high that then rallies making a lower short-term high; it then declines below the low prior to the rally that failed to make a new high, as shown at (B). The better indication of a real trend change is the violation of the low shown at (A). 

 

Best Trading Patterns.

 

By the same token, a trend reversal to the upside will occur in one of the two following patterns: In (A), the rally peak prior to a new low is violated to the upside, or in (B), the market makes a higher low, then rallies above the short-term high between those two lows. In this case, again, the (A) pattern is the better indication of a real trend reversal.

Quoted from:
Larry Williams (2000) - Day Trade Futures Online. 

 

See also:

Larry Williams (2022) - How Markets Move: The Natural Cycle of Range Change. 

Larry Williams (1999) - Three Bar Patterns: The Smallest Fractals of Market Structure.  

 

Arthur A. Merrill (1980) - M and W Wave Patterns.

Trading the Pump & Dump Pattern | Cameron Benson

I'm going to show you that pattern that I use every single day on every single trade, whether I'm going long or short. The pattern that I'm referring to is the pump & dump and the dump & pump pattern. Every single market movement is either a pump & dump or a dump & pump pattern, and all trade setups are based on these two patterns.

 

 

Markets are fractal, and this pattern is going to occur on the weekly and the daily time frame, on the 4 hour, the 15-minute, the 30 second chart, etc. It doesn't matter: whatever you're looking at, this pattern is going to occur.

I use larger setups and then I start to break things down: I look at the date and day in the month, I look at the three-week cycle, at the three-day cycle, at what day are we in the week, and I look at the weekly range, what is the high and the low of the week. Are we working the low, are we working the high? 

 

Any unidirectional move – up or down - ends with a consolidation, followed by a break in market structure and a continuation to anther pivot level and/or it is followed by a reversal.

 

 

Three pushes to a high, a sideways consolidation, a break in market structure to the downside, then the dump. A lot of times the market will return down at least to the 50% retracement level or down to the level where the pump started or even below.

Reference:
Cameron Benson (May 27, 2023) - 15 Minute Talk That Will Change How You View The Market [Pump And Dump].
Cameron Benson (May 27, 2023) - Pump And Dump & Dump And Pump [Pdf-Slideshow of the above video].

See also:

Cameron Benson (Apr 27, 2023) - The 3 Day Cycle.
Cameron Benson (Apr 27, 2023) - The 3 Week Cycle.

Stacey Burke (2022) - Best Trade Setups Playbook. 

Al Brooks (2012) - Wedges and Other Three-Push Reversal Patterns.

The Three Day Cycle | Cameron Benson

 

 

The 3 Day Cycle  is a recurring market cycle, that when identified, can be the groundwork of a trade setup. It consists of 3 days, and begins with a false break at the current weeks high or low. In his Best Trade Setups Playbook Stacey Burke described the 3 Day Cycle setups as either pump and dumps, or dump and pumps: "They [the market makers] pump, pump, pump, go sideways and drop a bit, one more small pump, then a dump. The dump can go straight down, fast. The pump up, may often be hard to trade on the first day, the price action can be choppy, and back and forth, a slow grinding auction. Other times, you are forced to "chase the move."  

 

Finding Day 1:
Look for a false break above or below a previous day's high or low AT THE HIGH OR LOW OF THE WEEK.

Attributes of Day 1:
1. Breaks Below/Above Previous Days High or Low at the high of the week, and the day closes back inside of previous days range.
a. Sub Variation: Breaks through previous days level and days closes above/below that level. 

The following day, price comes back inside of the the range from 2 days ago and closes.
2. Can become a First Green Day or First Red Day (Signal for following day).
3. Day 3 sometimes turns into Day 1 at the close of the day.

 

 

 Attributes of Day 2 of the 3 Day Cycle:

Day 2 can be either
1. Continuation in direction of false break; or:
2. It can turn into ...
    a.) a First Red Day (FGD)
    b.) a First Green Day (FRD)
    c.) an Inside Day
    d.) a Trend Day

Areas of Interest:
1. High of the Day/Low of the Day (HOD/LOD)
2. High of the Session/Low of the Session (HOS/LOS)
3. Outside Day/Inside Day (Was there a false break?) (Act as Support/Resistance)
4. Low Bear/High Bull (Support/Resistance)

Day 2 Trade Setups:

- Long/Short Squeeze
- Parabolic Trend Trade
- High of the Session/Low of the Session (HOD/LOD) Trade
- High of the Day/Low of the Day (HOD/LOD)
- Low Hanging Fruit (LHF) Continuation (Trend Trade)

Method:
1. Support/Resistance References:
a. Low Bear/High Bull
b. Previous Days High/Low
c. HOD/LOD
2. Measure 3 Levels of rise/fall from Low/High of day for potential strike zone.
3. Use Support/Resistance References as additional confluence.

 

 

Attributes of Day 3 of the 3 Day Cycle:

1. Day 3 is the last day of the 3 Day Cycle.
2. A lot of times Day 3 can turn into Day 1, either on the current day or the next day 

(Reset of the Day Count).
3. Day 3 can either become a blow off trend continuation day (in the direction of the trend) or a reversal day.

Trade Setups:
1. Parabolic/Capitulation Trend
2. Reversal HOW/LOW
3. LHF Continuation (Trend Trade)

Areas of Interest:
1. Low/High of week
2. Previous Days High/Low (Support/Resistance/Trapped Volume)
3. High/Low of Day
4. High Bull/Low Bear (Support/Resistance)
5. OD/ID (Outside Day/Inside Day)

Reference:

Cameron Benson (Feb 9, 2023) - THIS Market Cycle Made Me A PROFITABLE TRADER.

Cameron Benson (Mar 5, 2023) - 3 Day Cycle Deep Dive.

Cameron Benson (Mar 30, 2023) - Trade Management.

Stacey Burke (2022) - Mastering the Day Count (4 Videos).

 

 

See also:

Cameron Benson (Mar 15, 2023) - Full Trading Strategy In One Live Class.

Stacey Burke (2022) - Best Trade Setups Playbook.

The Three Week Cycle | Cameron Benson

 

 

There are multiple ways of Week 1 taking place: 

1.) Price breaks out and fails at the High/Low of the month above or below a previous weeks high/low.
2.) A 3 Week Cycle has completed (gone through week 1,2,3), but has not reversed on week 3. 

I refer to this as a "revolving door" style a.k.a. Trending Model of the 3 week cycle.
3.) A breakout occurs above/below previous weeks level, and on the following week reverses back above/below that level.
4.) On week 3 the market reverses BUT on the following week the market continues in the previous direction (a.k.a. Reset). 

 

 

Reference:
Cameron Benson (Apr 27, 2023) - THIS 3 Week Market Cycle Will SIMPLIFY Your Trading.
Cameron Benson (Apr 27, 2023) - The 3 Week Cycle (pdf slideshow of the above video).

 

See also:

Cameron Benson (Mar 15, 2023) - Full Trading Strategy In One Live Class.

Stacey Burke (2022) - Best Trade Setups Playbook.

 Stacey Burke (Mar 09, 2023) - Trading Inside or Outside the Daily and Weekly Range.

Cameron Benson (Feb 07, 2023) - A Stacey Burke Style Trading Plan.
Cameron Benson (Jan 15, 2023) - Finding Day One in the 3 Day Cycle.