On Thursday, September 19, the S&P 500 closed at a new twelve-month high as well as an all-time high. Since 1950, there have been twenty-nine years in which a twelve-month high was set in September.
In
those twenty-nine prior cases, the fourth quarter was twenty-four wins
and five losses, resulting in an average quarterly gain of 4.17 percent.
The weakest period in the fourth quarter, on average, was from October
20 to 27, during which that week experienced twelve one-percent losses
and only two gains of over one percent.
The sweet spot was from October 27 to December 5, which recorded twenty-five wins and four losses, with three percent moves being fifteen wins and zero losses. The last twenty instances, dating back to 1967, have followed this pattern.
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