On Gold, EU Capital Controls, CBDCs, Cryptos, and Stocks | Martin Armstrong

The Gold price is driven by geopolitical uncertainty, not peace expectations, with central banks acquiring it for its neutral status against collapsing European sovereign debt. European investors buying gold while leaders escalate Russia tensions create a self-reinforcing fear cycle. This risk has prompted major European institutions to relocate gold reserves to New York and Singapore, anticipating the historical certainty of European capital controls during crises.

Gold's powerful rally is terminal, completing Wave (3) past $4,380 just as Market Vane's Bullish 

Consensus hits a historic extreme of 95, signaling an imminent, major corrective Wave (4).

Evidence of control includes the new mandatory bank account declarations—the initial phase of preventing capital flight. Further anticipated steps include regulating cryptocurrencies and implementing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) by January 2026, likely justified by a false flag event. Existing withdrawal limits (e.g., in Spain) confirm the focus on financial control, a practice rooted in historical currency cancellations and asset restrictions during past European crises.

 Dow-Gold Ratio from 1792 to 2025:

Dow valuation relative to gold now below mid-1960s.

The Socrates model forecasts a panic cycle in 2026 with intensified conflict and Euro stress, marked by a dangerous, unprecedented convergence of the international conflict and civil unrest cycles. This systemic risk is compounded by the destabilizing effect of Europe's large, unsupported migrant population. Economically, interest rates will rise, particularly in Europe, as geopolitical risk increases debt service costs. The unsustainable US debt trajectory confirms the sovereign debt crisis will lead to government failure when debt cannot be rolled over.

Investors are now in a "private wave," prioritizing private assets over government solvency. The primary stock market bubble risk lies in AI stocks, not blue-chip indices used by institutions for large-scale capital parking. Consequently, "smart money" is relocating capital to the United States (equities and real estate). This strategic move anticipates the CBDC's ultimate function: an impenetrable barrier to capital outflows, reflective of Europe's controlling political philosophy.

Reference:
Martin Armstrong (October 20, 2025) - Insider Sources Preparing For BIG Events (video)

Charts: Robert Prechter (October 21, 2025) - History and Outlook for Gold. (video)

 

Larry Williams' outlook for gold in Q4 of 2025.

The EU planned to launch the digital euro in October 2025. Now it’s delayed to 2029, officially for “technical reasons,” 

but actually after Trump banned the Fed from issuing digital legal tender, effectively sidelining the ECB too.

See also:
David Hickson (October 20, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500 and Bitcoin; Focus on Gold. 

 Martin Armstrong (August 28, 2025) - Europe's Debt Ponzi Scheme 2.0—Default or Forced Loan.

 Martin Armstrong (March 21, 2025) - Europe's Date with Destiny: Collapse by 2029 is Inevitable. 

Martin Armstrong (March 1, 2025)  - Europe Will Go to War, Lose, and Euro Will Become Extinct. 

Nikolai Kondratieff (1926) - Gold Production Mirrors the Long Wave, It Doesn’t Drive It.

Europe's Date with Destiny: Collapse by 2029 is Inevitable | Martin Armstrong

Comment by Hans: Mr. Armstrong, thank you for speaking the truth about the timeline of this war with Ukraine. Every news story here in Europe says the same thing. Russia was unprovoked. Never in my entire life have I ever witnessed such outright lies by the press. I do not see the Europeans rising up to overthrow these governments. We are sheep being led to the slaughter. You have forecasted that the euro will no longer exist, and they are rapidly moving to digital currencies, which will be, as you say, for capital control. We will not be able to leave or get our money out. [...] I think it is time to prepare for the future sooner than later.

» From about May 15th 2025 on, Europe is going into war, 

Europe will lose, and the Euro will become extinct. «
Martin Armstrong, March 1, 2025.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: It gives me no pleasure to live through Socrates’ forecasts [...] The euro has broken last year’s low and is still trading below it. We have a very serious Panic Cycle for Europe next year [2026], and they are pushing to cancel the currency’s move to digital as soon as possible. All they look at is capital controls, which will prevent bank runs and stop capital fleeing. They are trying to control their risk of the collapse of the EU. [...] Lagarde runs the ECB, pushing for the cancellation of the currency and moving to digital [by October 2025]. This is about taxes all over again.
 

» We are witnessing capital contracting in both the United States and Europe. «

Martin Armstrong, March 17, 2025.

[...] I have been warning that we are approaching World War III as a distraction from the collapse of sovereign debt in Japan and Europe. The total outstanding government and corporate bonds globally have now exceeded $100 trillion in 2024, as reported by the OECD. As I have also been warning, the central banks have been neutered. They can no longer fight inflation by raising interest rates because government debt just explodes. Governments have NO INTENTION of ever paying off their debt. They think there is no end to this game.

 » We are approaching World War III as a distraction from the collapse of sovereign debt in Japan and Europe.

Germany is heading into a very serious debt crisis for 2026. PANIC Cycles in 2026 around the globe. 

Major recession globally into 2028. EU prepares for war as a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029. «

[...] While central banks are cutting interest rates, borrowing costs remain much higher than before 2022’s rate hikes because the ECM, in particular, went to negative interest rates in 2014, which only encouraged governments to issue more debt. This all comes at a time when the EU wants to fund an army and prepare for war as a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029.

» Macron and Starmer are insane. Putin can detonate a 100-megaton nuke and the tidal wave

will wipe out Britain entirely. The Computer Has NEVER been Wrong. Europe Will Lose!!! «

Martin Armstrong, March 21, 2025.

 

[...] Germany is heading into a very serious debt crisis for 2026, and this does not bode well for Europe or the Euro. Nearly HALF of ALL outstanding government debt among OECD countries and emerging markets and around ONE THIRD of corporate debt will mature by 2027. Our computer is showing PANIC Cycles in 2026 around the globe. The defaults come when you cannot sell the NEW debt to pay off the old. [...] Everything is coming to the point of a major Sovereign Debt default that the government will not survive. [...] Add the trade wars and what our model shows a major recession globally into 2028; it is hard to see how many countries can even make it to 2029.

Reference:
Martin Armstrong (March 21, 2025) - Europe’s Date with Destiny.
Martin Armstrong (March 20, 2025) - Sovereign Debt Crisis Unfolding.

 

See also:

Martin Armstrong (March 17, 2025) - Ahead of Iran War, Capital Flows Flee the US and Europe.

Martin Armstrong (March 1, 2025) - Europe Will Go to War around May 15, Lose, and Euro Will Become Extinct.

Martin Armstrong (December 21, 2024) - Outlook for 2025: Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction. 

TPR (March 11, 2025) - The ECB's Dystopian Digital Euro Dictatorship Set to Launch in October 2025. 

Jim Bianco (February 13, 2025) - The ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s Attention.

Ahead of Iran War, Capital Flows Flee the US and Europe | Martin Armstrong

Comment by EKL: Your computer model tracks capital flows, [...] capital is being withdrawn globally in preparation for war. We could not make decisions in our boardroom without consulting Socrates anymore. It is unbiased and that is the most valuable asset in times of such uncertainty. God bless.

Martin Armstrong's Socrates Daily Global Capital Flows Heat Map as of March 17, 2025.

 » From about May 15th on, Europe is going into war, Europe will lose, and the Euro will become extinct. «
Martin Armstrong, March 1, 2025.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: Yes, you are correct. We are witnessing capital contracting in both the United States and Europe. It is even leaving Canada and Mexico. 

Quoted from:
Martin Armstrong (March 17, 2025) - Capital Flows Canada, Mexico, Europe.

» Perhaps we should credit the new president of the United States,
Donald Trump, for accelerating this process. «
Lu QiYuan, March 15, 2025.

See also:

Helena Glass (March 16, 2025) - Back Door World War III - A Netanyahu-Trump Collaboration.

Martin Armstrong (March 1, 2025) - Europe Will Go to War around May 15, Lose, and Euro Will Become Extinct.

Martin Armstrong (December 23, 2024) - Outlook for 2025: Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction.