Showing posts with label The Inner Circle Trader. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Inner Circle Trader. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 20, 2023

ICT Daily Range Profiles | Michael J. Huddleston

(I) The Classic Buy Day or Sell Day Template
This is the best template to make money since it is a wide range trending day that unfolds mostly on Monday, Tuesday and latest on Wednesday during the London session. The New York session will eventually give a retracement to continue with the trend that was set during the London session. The daily range will last for 7 to 8 hours once the profile is established.
 
Always buy when the market drops at the right time of the day at key support level (buy below the opening price).
On a buy day, if price starts by trading above the opening price, do not fall for that and wait for it to trade below the opening price.
The faster the move to the support the good the trade, (it will look stupid and scary but buy when you see a fast move down to support).
The distance from the open price to support will be 15 – 30 pips on average. If the move from open price to support in London session is more than 30 pips, wait for New York trade.
If you can’t trade London session you can trade New York session to get in sync with London trade.
Always take small profit of 20 – 30 pips at 12:00.
The sell template will be vice versa of the buy template. 
 

Mostly it will give a rally or drop from the daily opening price to the low or high of the day during the London session. The trend usually lasts into 11:00 EST.
 
(II) The London Swing to Z Day Template
This template is found in the middle of a larger price swing when the trend is exhausted after a large explosive move. It is a narrow range day and ideally occurs on Thursday. 
 
This will unfold in the middle of a Larger swing (strong move has minor to no retracement, most of the time price will consolidate after a strong or very big move and this template will unfold).
If you had 2 – 3 days of big move, expect a pause in price.  


Price will initially drop below the opening price, then run above the opening price and go back to the range into consolidation. It first appears to unfold as the Classic Buy or Sell Template. But if it continues consolidating, do not look for continuation into the New York session. Take profits.
 
(III) The London Swing to New York Open / London Close Reversal Template
The bullish version of this template always begins like a Classic Buy or Sell template with a decline below the opening price before price starts rallying. Once price drops, a buy entry forms, price rallies to a higher time frame Point of Interest (POI). If this happens during the New York session, it indicates a classic market reversal. 

▪ The reversal market profile is one that typically forms as a Key Reversal Day.
▪ It will form a sell day during a bullish Asian, London and Possibly into New York session but fails to hold its rally and reverse lower.
▪ The swing up will likely be the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders top on higher time frame or swing up to the higher time frame OTE.
▪ This move will many times look just like classic London open buy day.
▪ Many times at 18:00 GMT or even later the market will eventually consolidate into the new trading day.
▪ The reversal market profile will form a buy day during bearish Asian, London and possibly into New York session but fails to hold its lower price slide and reverse higher.
▪ The swing down will likely be the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders bottom on higher time frame or swing down to the higher time frame 
OTE.
▪ This move will many times look just like classic London open sell day.


The template is used to either reach for a bearish order block on a higher time frame, for a turtle soup raid or to close a range. On a bullish day it will first create an initial low of the day during the London session, run up and create the high of the day during the New York session around the London Close, then run back down and clear the initial low that was created during the London session. Ideally it can pan out after the market is in exhaustion based on the higher time frame's dominant trend.
 
(IV) The Range to New York Open / London Close Rally Template
Generally this template is to be expected on days with high or medium impact news events like interest rate announcements, etc. Ahead of these events price will remain in consolidation during the Asian and London sessions. Lows will be cleared initially and after the news price explodes into a directional move.
 
This pattern will unfold most often during the NFP, FOMC and Interest Rates Announcements.
Before the News price will break London Lows and rally after News Release.
Always remember to see cross pairs of the major pair you are trading when this template unfolds.
If Dollar is dropping and EURUSD pair is consolidating EURJPY will be buying.
If Dollar dropping, GBP is buying and EUR is consolidating, wait for GBP to hit resistance level and EUR will give nice range to New York Open/London Close rally setup.
If majors are consolidating but crosses are moving, wait for the crosses to hit key Support/Resistance levels and come back to majors and trade to the direction of the crosses.
 
  
(V) The Consolidation Raid on News Release Template
Unfolding during the New York session on days with high impact news, mostly FOMC press releases. During and shortly after the news old highs and lows of prior consolidation levels will be taken out. Ideally buy when a low is taken out and sell when a prior high was breached.
 
This pattern will unfold most often during the NFP, FOMC and Interest Rates Announcements.
After opening price, market will consolidate before the News.
During the News releases price will drop to induce traders and take stops (this move might not be that big below the consolidation but it has to break the consolidation).
After clearing the stops and inducing, price will move into true direction.
You have to identify Key support level or order block below the consolidation.
See if price will reject at support/resistance within 5 minutes after News release, if it won’t reject then leave the trade because you might be wrong in your analysis.
 
 News are used to Inject Volatility. One of the most difficult ways to trade is to try to trade the News Releases. The Internet is littered with so-called robots or programs designed to quickly give you trading profits on the knee-jerk reaction to the news. This is pure gambling. We can never know for sure what the numbers will be in the reports, we don’t guess. However, we can wait for the release and watch the reaction and many times a signal will form within 5 minutes after the news release. Many times price will trade counter direction to the intended news hawks. 

 
 (VI) The London Swing to Seek & Destroy Template
This is the kind of day that won’t make you money. The Market Makers clear intention is to take out both buyers and sellers. Initially it would give you a London Open opportunity and setup, but very likely that won’t come to fruition. The narrow range zig-zag template lasts throughout the New York session and will oftentimes create an inside day. The template is usually applied in the middle or at the end of a larger price swing. 
 
This template will unfold most often after a big move/swing or at the end of the price move (support/resistance).
It is better to trade when a pair is in the middle of the range knowing it is going to support or resistance rather than trading a pair that is already in support/resistance because we don’t know if is going to hold the Support/Resistance or break it.


Wednesday, April 5, 2023

ICT Weekly Range Profiles | Michael J. Huddleston

These profiles are conceptual models that describe typical patterns of how prices might behave during a trading week. Each profile has unique characteristics that can guide traders in anticipating potential market movements. However, it’s important to note that these profiles are not rigid predictions but rather frameworks to understand market tendencies. 

(I) Classic Tuesday Low of the Week = Bullish Profile
When price is bullish it may manipulate on Monday and hover above a higher a higher time frame discount array. Then on Tuesday it drops into Higher Time Frame Premium-Discount Arrays (HTF PDAs) to form low of the week. 
How to anticipate? To anticipate all this phenomenon you should know the HTF PDA. When the market fails to drop into the discount array on Monday then its most likely that Tuesday will se the drive lower to mark weekly low in London or New York session.
 
 
(II) Classic Tuesday High of the Week = Bearish Profile
When price is bearish it may manipulate on Monday and hover below a higher time frame premium, array. Then on Tuesday it rises into higher time frame premium array to form high of the week. 
How to anticipate? To anticipate all this phenomenon you should know the higher time frame Premium array. When the market fails to rise into the premium array on Monday then its most likely that Tuesday will se the drive higher to mark weekly high in London or New York session.

 
 
(III) Wednesday Low of the Week = Bullish Profile
When price is bullish it may manipulate on Monday and Tuesday and hover above a higher a higher time frame discount array. Then on Wednesday it drops into higher time frame discount array to form low of the week. 
How to anticipate? To anticipate all this phenomenon one should know the higher time frame Discount Array. When the market fails to drop into the discount array on Monday and Tuesday then its most likely that Wednesday will se the drive lower to mark weekly low in London or New York session.
 
 
(IV) Wednesday High of the Week = Bearish Profile 
When price is bearish it may manipulate on Monday and Tuesday and hover below a higher a higher time frame premium array. Then on Wednesday it rises into higher time frame premium array to form high of the week. 
How to anticipate? To anticipate all this phenomenon you should know the higher time frame premium array. When the market fails to rise into the premium array on Monday and Tuesday then its most likely that Wednesday will se the drive higher to mark weekly high in London or New York session.
 
 
(V) Consolidation Thursday Bullish Reversal
When price is bullish it may consolidate on Monday through Wednesday then runs the intra-week low and rejects it forming a market reversal.
How to anticipate? To anticipate this you must know the higher timeframe discount array. And when price fails to drop into higher timeframe discount array then its likely that Thursday will see drive lower on market driver news or interest rate release late New York session around 02:00 PM (New York local time).
 
 
(VI) Consolidation Thursday Bearish Reversal
When price is bearish it may consolidate on Monday through Wednesday then runs the intra-week high and rejects it forming a market reversal.
How to anticipate? To anticipate this you must know the higher timeframe premium array. And when price fails to rise into higher timeframe premium array then its likely that Thursday will see drive higher on market driver news or interest rate release late New York session around 02:00 PM (New York local time).
 
 
(VII) Consolidation Midweek Rally = Bullish Profile
When price is bullish and consolidates Monday through Wednesday then runs into intra-week high and expands higher into Friday.
How to anticipate? When the price is bullish and has yet to run to premium array on the higher timeframe and it has recently rallied from a discount array and simply paused without any bearish reversal price action. This indicates price is about to expand higher for the premium array.
 
 
(VIII) Consolidation Midweek Decline = Bearish Profile
When price is bearish and consolidates Monday through Wednesday then runs into intra-week low and expands lower into Friday.
How to anticipate? When the price is bearish and has yet to run to discount array on the higher timeframe and it has recently declined from a premium array and simply paused without any bullish reversal price action. This indicates price is about to expand lower for the premium array.
 
 
(IX) Seek and Destroy Bullish Friday = Neutral-Low Probability Profile
When price consolidates Monday through Thursday running shallow stops under and above intra-week high, then runs the intra-week high and expands higher into Friday.
How to anticipate? When market is awaiting interest rate announcements or Non-Farm Payroll, it can create this profile in the summer months of July and August. Better to avoid trading in these conditions.
 
 
(X) Seek and Destroy Bearish Friday = Neutral-Low Probability Profile
When price consolidates Monday through Thursday running shallow stops under and above intra-week high, then runs the intra-week low and expands lower into Friday.
How to anticipate? When market is awaiting interest rate announcements or Non-Farm Payroll, it can create this profile in the summer months of July and August. Better to avoid trading in these conditions.
 
 
(XI) Wednesday Weekly Bullish Reversal = Bullish Profile
When price is bullish and consolidates Monday through Tuesday and drives lower into higher timeframe discount array on Wednesday to induce sell stops and then strongly reverses.
How to anticipate? When the market is trading at the long term or intermediate term low, price will pair institutional buying with pending sell side liquidity (sell stops raid).
 
 
(XII) Wednesday Weekly Bearish Reversal = Bearish Profile
When price is bearish and consolidates Monday through Tuesday and drives higher into higher timeframe premium array on Wednesday to induce buy stops and then strongly reverses.
How to anticipate? When the market is trading at the long term or intermediate term high, price will pair institutional selling with pending buy side liquidity (buy stops raid).
 
 
 
The weekly price movement in financial markets follows a recurring pattern of consolidation, expansion, reversal, expansion again, consolidation, and a potential reverse or retracement. For example:
  1. Sunday Open Consolidation: The week often begins with price consolidation on the Sunday open, reflecting a cautious approach as traders assess the weekend developments.
  2. Monday Expansion: As the trading week gains momentum, Monday is typically marked by an expansion phase. This reflects increased activity and movement as traders react to new information.
  3. Tuesday Reversal: The following day, Tuesday, often witnesses a reversal in price trends. This can be attributed to traders reassessing their positions after the initial expansion phase.
  4. Wednesday Expansion: Midweek, the market tends to experience another expansion phase. This reflects a renewed bout of activity and movement in response to evolving market dynamics.
  5. Thursday Consolidation: On Thursday, there’s often a consolidation phase. Price ranges may narrow as traders assess the overall sentiment and prepare for the end of the trading week.
  6. Midweek Friday Reverse or Retrace: As the week approaches its close, Friday may see a reversal or retracement in trends. Traders might adjust their positions before the weekend, leading to a shift in price direction.

This weekly cycle reflects the rhythm of market sentiment and participant actions throughout the trading week.
 
 

Friday, July 1, 2022

ICT Intraday Trading Templates | Daily and Weekly Market Maker Cycles

 
» The market is made by the minds of men, and all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man's operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.

Great activity and breadth induces trading in large quantities by big operators on the floor and outside. Such a market enables the manipulator to unload a large line of stock. When he wishes to accumulate a line, he raids the market for that stock, makes it look very weak, and gives it the appearance of heavy liquidation by sending in selling orders through a great number of brokers.

You say all this is unethical, if not unscrupulous. You say it is a cruel and crooked game. Very well. Electricity can be very cruel, but you can take advantage of it; you can make it work for your benefit. Just so with the stock market and the Composite Man. Play the game as he plays it.
«  —  Richard D. Wyckoff, 1931
 
All financial markets are dominated by investment banks, often referred to as institutional traders or "smart money." To be more precise, the leading players in these markets include JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Citi, XTX Markets, UBS, State Street Corporation, HCTech, HSBC, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and Goldman Sachs. Collectively, their positions account for up to 80% of the total volume in the Forex, bond, stock, and commodity markets.

While these banks also engage in speculative trading, the majority of their activity is classified as "market making." This entails buying and selling on behalf of their clients, which primarily include hedge funds, pension funds, commercial banks, corporations, other financial institutions, and central banks. In fact, central banks are among their most valued clients. The sheer volume of their orders means that transactions cannot be executed in single lots in any market, necessitating the roles of market makers and liquidity providers. Big banks earn commissions from these activities, often risking their clients' capital for market manipulation and additional profits.

This information is crucial for small retail traders as it reveals an important insight: if the major banks primarily act as market makers and liquidity providers, they inherently drive the market toward areas of liquidity. Market movements are not random; they are influenced by intention, logic, strategy, and measurable factors. Price levels can be predicted. Michael J. Huddleston, the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) and author of many smart money trading concepts, emphasizes this understanding:

» There is always a puppeteer. There is always someone pulling the strings. It's never being left to randomness of buying and selling. There is no support and resistance in the marketplace. These are all notions that promote the idea of free trade. When it comes to the truth of the markets: It's complete and utter control and manipulation. It's a very simple approach. It's about price: It's the open, the high, the low, and the close of the daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly bars. It's not support nor resistance what is moving the price order flow. It's all about where the money is. The retail textbooks will never teach you this: Price moves to where the money is. And the money is at the levels where most retail traders have their entry and stop loss orders - just to get harvested by the smart money during false moves and false breakouts. « 

The good news is that market makers consistently leave footprints within their accumulation-manipulation-expansion-distribution framework. These include order blocks, imbalances, fair value gaps, liquidity voids, liquidity pools, stop runs, and equilibrium. (HERE - HERE - HERE)

Big banks rely less on indicators and employ more software engineers and programmers than technical analysts, and for good reason: market making and order processing are fully automated by algorithms designed to maximize returns. They utilize daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly charts, largely ignoring popular retail indicators, forecasting methods, and trading systems. Their market-making strategy focuses exclusively on breaking down large orders into smaller increments, executing these transactions continuously and efficiently, and profitably misleading retail traders.

Smart money drives the markets in daily and weekly cycles, with accumulation, manipulation, expansion, and distribution as their core business model. The typical weekly market maker cycle is as follows:

(1.) The week starts with a trap move on Sunday night or early Monday morning. 

(2.) Then follows an 'accumulation phase' and the setting up of an initial high and an initial low in the Asian session, during which price is usually held in a narrow range. 

(3.) The accumulation phase is followed by what Wyckoff coined the 'spring', an engineered false breakout against the real intention of the market maker to 'support or resistance levels' to harvest the retail traders' entry and stop loss orders there. The market maker considers these levels as 'liquidity pools'.

(4.) Next the market maker initiates the actual planned market move. This results in the formation of a trend that can be slow and steady, or it could be swift and furious. In the cash market a trend can be just a few hours, in the futures market up to 8 or 10 hours. On the chart the trend will be seen as a series of drives or pushes in the market maker's intended direction.

(5.) Towards the end of the day or the end of the session, there will be a corrective distribution phase and pattern of some type (wedge, pennant, head and shoulders, M or W formation), when price pulls back from the high or the low of the day because the market maker liquidates positions (see also HERE).

There is a high probability that the weekly low or high will form before the opening of the New York session on Wednesday. The odds increase further between Tuesday and Wednesday, particularly during Tuesday's London session leading into Wednesday's New York session. Even market makers do not possess infinite capital, so they must orchestrate retracements to secure profits before continuing their strategies. This is why sudden, aggressive pullbacks can seem to occur out of nowhere.  


 

To gain a more detailed understanding of how smart money manipulation operates on a day-to-day basis, Michael J. Huddleston has developed six ICT Intraday Trading Templates. These templates offer insights into when to expect market movements, clues related to daily and weekly biases and ranges, and a perspective on the internal structure of daily and weekly market maker cycles: 

(1.) The Classic Buy or Sell Day Template: This is the best template to make money since it is a wide range trending day that unfolds mostly on Monday, Tuesday and latest on Wednesday during the London session. The New York session will eventually give a retracement to continue with the trend that was set during the London session. The daily range will last for 7 to 8 hours once the profile is established. 

Mostly it will give a rally or drop from the daily opening price to the low or high of the day during the London session. The trend usually lasts into 11:00 EST.



(2.) The London Swing to Z Day Template: This template is found in the middle of a larger price swing when the trend is exhausted after a large explosive move. It is a narrow range day and ideally occurs on Thursday. 

Price will initially drop below the opening price, then run above the opening price and go back to the range into consolidation. It first appears to unfold as the Classic Buy or Sell Template. But if it continues consolidating, do not look for continuation into the New York session. Take profits.

(3.) The London Swing to New York Open / London Close Reversal Template: The bullish version of this template always begins like a Classic Buy or Sell template with a decline below the opening price before price starts rallying. Once price drops, a buy entry forms, price rallies to a higher time frame Point of Interest (POI), e.g. a bearish order block (OB), into a Fair Value Gap (FVG), etc. If this happens during the New York session, it indicates a classic market reversal. 

The template is used to either reach for a bearish order block on a higher time frame, for a turtle soup raid or to close a range. On a bullish day it will first create an initial low of the day during the London session, run up and create the high of the day during the New York session around the London Close, then run back down and clear the initial low that was created during the London session. Ideally it can pan out after the market is in exhaustion based on the higher time frame's dominant trend.

(4.) The Range to New York Open / London Close Rally Template: Generally this template is to be expected on days with high or medium impact news events like interest rate announcements, etc.


Ahead of these events price will remain in consolidation during the Asian and London sessions. Lows will be cleared initially and after the news price explodes into a directional move.

(5.) The Consolidation Raid on News Release Template: Unfolding during the New York session on days with high impact news, mostly FOMC press releases. During and shortly after the news old highs and lows of prior consolidation levels will be taken out. Ideally buy when a low is taken out and sell when a prior high was breached.

 
(6.) The London Swing to Seek & Destroy Template: This is the kind of day that won’t make you money. The Market Makers clear intention is to take out both buyers and sellers. Initially it would give you a London Open opportunity and setup, but very likely that won’t come to fruition. The narrow range zig-zag template lasts throughout the New York session and will oftentimes create an inside day. The template is usually applied in the middle or at the end of a larger price swing. 

 
Reference: