Showing posts with label ICT Intraday Trading Templates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ICT Intraday Trading Templates. Show all posts

Thursday, July 11, 2024

Common Intra-Day Stock Market Patterns & Setups | Cory Mitchell

The US stock market has certain patterns, based on the time of day. These patterns, or tendencies, happen often enough for professional day traders to base their trading around them. One tendency is that the stock market can become less volatile, flatten out, and see less volume in and around the New York Lunch Hour. Many day traders stop trading about half an hour to an hour before this slowdown kicks in and don't trade again until well after the lunch hour, when volatility and volume pick up again.  

9:30 (EST/EDT) : The stock market opens, and there is an initial push in one direction.
 

9:45 : The initial push often sees a significant reversal or pullback. This is often just a short-term shift, and then the original trending direction re-asserts itself.

 Six Intraday Templates and Trading Setups for the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow Jones.

10:00
: If the trend that began at 9:30 is still in play, it will often be challenged around this time. This tends to be another time where there is a significant reversal or pullback

True Open, 6 Hour Cycle, 90 Minute Cycle, and 22.5 Minute Cycle.

11:15
11:30
: The market is heading into the lunch hour, and London is getting ready to close. This is when volatility will typically die out for a couple hours, but often the daily high or low will be tested around this time. European traders usually close out positions or accumulate a position before they finish for the day. Whether the highs or lows are tested or not, the market tends to "drift" for the next hour or more. 
 
11:4513:30 : This is lunch time in New York, plus a bit of a time buffer. Usually, this is the quietest time of the day, and often, day traders like to avoid it.


13:30
14:00
: If the lunch hour was calm, then expect a breakout of the range established during lunch hour. Often, the market will try to move in the direction it was trading in before the lunch hour doldrums set in. 
 
14:0014:45 : The close is getting closer, and many traders are trading with the trend, thinking it will continue into the close. That may happen, but expect some sharp reversals around this time, because on the flip side, many traders are quicker to take profits or move their trailing stops closer to the current price.


15:00
and 15:30
: These are big "shakeout" points, in that they will force many traders out of their positions. If a reversal of the prior trend occurs around this time, then the price is likely to move very strongly in the opposite direction. Even if the prior trend does sustain itself through these periods, expect some quick and sizable counter-trend moves. 
 

As a day trader, it is best to be nimble and not get tied to one position or one direction. It can be very hard to hold a trade for very long between 3 p.m. and the close.
The last hour of trading is the second most volatile hour of the trading day. Many day traders only trade the first hour and last hour of the trading day.

15:58 16:00 : The market closes at 16:00. After that, liquidity dries up in nearly all stocks and ETFs, except for the very active ones. It's common to close all positions a minute or more before the closing bell, unless you have orders placed to close your position on a closing auction or "cross."


Big
News Events can throw a wrench in these tendencies, resulting in big trends, reversals, or movement through the lunch hour or other times that would be uncommon without some sort of external catalyst. 

Monday, May 27, 2024

ICT Intraday Templates & Setups for ES/NQ/YM | Michael J. Huddleston

There are six Intraday Templates and Trading Setups for the S&P (ES), the Nasdaq (NQ) and the Dow Jones (YM) - three bullish and three bearish ones:
  • Two Session Up Close OR Two Session Down Close. (1.1 + 1.2)
  • AM Rally and PM Reversal OR AM Decline and PM Reversal. (2.1 + 2.2)
  • Consolidation AM Rally and PM Decline OR Consolidation AM Decline and PM Rally. (3.1 + 3.2)
1.1    Two Session Up Close (Trend Day ≈ 10% of all trading days)
If we are in the middle of an intermediate or long term price swing based on what we would see on the HTF (Higher timeframes = 4 hour, daily, weekly, monthly) chart, this is the classic scenario. When we start approaching HTF opposing arrays, this profile is less likely to occur. The daily range can go straight trough the lunch hour with very little consolidation whatsoever, depending on what the catalyst was that send prices higher it could be a very strong economic news release. Don't think we’ll always get the consolidation in lunch hour, if we move higher fast there is a chance they work trough lunch. PM session would be ideal if its symmetrical to the AM session.

  • Institutional Order Flow (IOF): Bullish.
  • AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then rallies.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Lows [Sell Stops] OR Drops into a Fair Value (FV) Discount Array then rallies into Close.
 1.2    Two Session Down Close (Trend Day ≈ 10% of all trading days)
If we are in the middle of an intermediate or long term price swing based on what we would see on the HTF chart, this is the classic scenario. When we start approaching HTF opposing arrays, this profile is less likely to occur.
 

  • Institutional Order Flow: Bearish.
  • AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then declines.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Highs [Buy Stops] OR Rises into a Fair Value Discount Array then declines into Close.
 
Tips for Two Session Up Close OR Two Session Down Close = trending days:
► When daily and 4H institutional order flow is bullish (two session up close)/bearish (two session down close).
If we're in the middle of an intermediate term or long term price swing based on what we see on the HTF chart, then this is the classic scenario until we start approaching an opposing array on the 4h/daily/weekly. PM session would be ideal if its symmetrical to the AM session (measured move).
The daily range can go straight through the lunch hour with very little consolidation whatsoever, depending on what the catalyst was that send prices higher it could be a very strong or surprised economic news release.
Don't think we'll always get the consolidation in lunch hour, if we move higher fast there's a chance they work through lunch.
How to trade: ICT always looks for SMT (Smart Money Tool / Smart Money Technique) between the 3 indices at the lows/highs on both sessions.
AM SMT: compare London lows/highs and 9:30 am lows/highs.
PM SMT: compare lunch lows/highs and the high/low formed from the 13:00 candle. One has to diverge.
AM session hold till about 10:30-11:00 and also look for 15m PD arrays.
PM session: besides the SMT we can also return to FVG or OB formed in lunch hour.

2.1    AM Rally PM Reversal (Typical Day ≈ 25% of all trading days)
Price is yet to fulfill a completion of a bullish run, but very close to where we are presently there is a higher time frame premium PD (Premium/Discount) array. The session will start off bullish until it hits the HTF PD array which causes the intraday market reversal.
 
  • Institutional Order Flow: Bullish - under HTF Premium-Discount Array.
  • AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then rallies.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Highs [Buy Stops] and reverses into Close OR Runs the Intraday High and then reverses into Close.
  • PM Trend can resume higher if AM session Discount = HTF.
 
2.2   AM Decline and PM Reversal (Typical Day ≈ 25% of all trading days)

 
  • Institutional Order Flow: Bearish (IOF) - above HTF Discount Premium/Discount Array.
    AM Trend: Returns to a Premium Array then declines.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Lows [Sell Stops] and then reverses into Close OR Runs the Intraday Lows and then reverses into Close..
  • PM Trend can resume lower if AM session Premium = HTF. 

 
Tips for AM Rally PM reversal (bullish)/AM Decline PM reversal (bearish):
When daily and 4H institutional order flow is bullish/bearish and price is near a 4H/daily TF PD array, so this model is the completion of a run. AM session is bullish/bearish until it hits the HTF pd array which causes the intraday market reversal.
In the AM scenario you first drop into a 1H or 4H discount (bullish) / premium (bearish), then rally into HTF PD array (4H/daily/weekly).
Smart money reversal (SMR) - PM trend could either
- Run out the AM high/low and then rally or make a LH when it reverses. Just a run above a STH is also possible.
- Be just a retracement into the AM range and then continue HTF trend or really reverse on HTF. How do we know which one the PM trend will do? The PM session can resume higher/lower (reversal) if the AM session premium array equals a higher timeframe (4H, daily, weekly, monthly) premium array, it can go back into that array in PM and recapitalize that and then go lower and resume lower. If that’s NOT the case we can expect price to continue until we reach that HTF array.
How to trade: ICT always looks for SMT between the 3 indices at the lows/highs on both sessions.
AM SMT: compare London lows/highs and 9:30 lows/highs. PM SMT: compare lunch lows/highs and the high/low formed from the 13:00 candle. One has to diverge. So in the bearish scenario: If the AM high around 10:30am EST but often closer to 11:00 is below a 15m or the PD array, then we're going to be anticipating, before it even happens, outside the London lunch around 1 pm an initial rally into the 15m PD array followed by a HTF reversal. So in the AM session we're going to be holding our trade until there.
PM SMT: try to hold until 15:00 at least. If price is in the premium of the AM dealing range, we could see price continue lower/higher (when the premium array is not a HTF premium array), otherwise price will reverse there.
 
3.1    Consolidation AM Rally PM Decline (Trading Range /Neutral Day ≈ 35% of all trading days)
If unsure of what the IOF of the current day is or where we are relative to Premium/Discount on Daily/4h, chances are we likely see this scenario - especially if there is no high/medium impact news expected during 10am or later in the day.

  • Institutional Order Flow: Neutral.
  • AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then rallies OR expands Higher from Equilibrium to run London session Buy Stops.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Highs [Buy Stops] and then reaches for Day's Sell Stops OR Runs the Intraday High and then reaches for ID/London session Sell Stops. PM Trend can simply consolidate into Close after Lunch Hour.
3.2    Consolidation AM Decline PM Rally (Trading Range / Neutral Day ≈ 35% of all trading days)
If unsure of what the Institutional Order Flow of the current day is or where we are relative to Premium/Discount on Daily/4h, chances are we likely see this scenario - especially if there is no high/medium impact news expected during 10am or later in the day.

  • Institutional Order Flow: Neutral.
  • AM Trend: Returns to a Premium Array then declines OR expands Lower from Equilibrium to run London session Sell Stops.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Lows [Sell Stops] and then reaches for Day's Buy Stops OR Runs the Intraday Low and then reaches for the Intraday London session Buy Stops.
  • PM Trend can simply consolidate into Close after Lunch Hour. 

Tips for Consolidation AM Rally and PM Decline / Consolidation AM Decline and PM Rally:
In this scenario Institutional Order Flow is neutral or unclear where we're at relative to premium or discount on 4H or daily. This scenario happens a lot in index trading which can be frustrating if you don’t know the mechanics behind it. When there's a strong directional bias behind the marketplace or the underlying meanings of the market suggest higher/lower prices, DO NOT look for this scenario. This is not seek and destroy (NFP), this is simply consolidation. This happens when there’s a lack of news or trend.
AM: price returns to a premium/discount then rallies OR after the first hour of the opening range or expands higher from EQ to run SSL/BSL (Buy Side Liquidity/Sell Side Liquidity)from London or intraday.
PM: 2 scenario’s —> 1. Run on lunch hour highs/lows then rally for AM session BSL/SSL or 2. run intraday high/lows and then run for intraday or London SSL/BSL.
How to trade: Which one is it going to do, lunch highs/lows or AM SSL/BSL? We are going to be looking for a 15m PD array inside a 4h/Daily PD array. So the HTF confluence is the catalyst for the reversal. If that PD Array was already reached in AM, PM will just run out lunch hour highs/lows.
If the PM session takes lunch hour SSL/BSL or AM session SSL/BSL is dependent on the AM session BSL/SSL. If these lows/highs reached into a 15m PD array inside a 4h/Daily PD array PM will just run out lunch hour highs/lows.

How to know if the PM session will run lunch or intraday highs?

HTF PD array hit in AM session = Lunch highs likely to be run.
HTF PD array NOT hit in AM session= PM session  could run the intraday high, hit the HTF Premium array, and then reverse.
 

Tuesday, June 20, 2023

ICT Daily Range Profiles | Michael J. Huddleston

(I) The Classic Buy Day or Sell Day Template
This is the best template to make money since it is a wide range trending day that unfolds mostly on Monday, Tuesday and latest on Wednesday during the London session. The New York session will eventually give a retracement to continue with the trend that was set during the London session. The daily range will last for 7 to 8 hours once the profile is established.
 
Always buy when the market drops at the right time of the day at key support level (buy below the opening price).
On a buy day, if price starts by trading above the opening price, do not fall for that and wait for it to trade below the opening price.
The faster the move to the support the good the trade, (it will look stupid and scary but buy when you see a fast move down to support).
The distance from the open price to support will be 15 – 30 pips on average. If the move from open price to support in London session is more than 30 pips, wait for New York trade.
If you can’t trade London session you can trade New York session to get in sync with London trade.
Always take small profit of 20 – 30 pips at 12:00.
The sell template will be vice versa of the buy template. 
 

Mostly it will give a rally or drop from the daily opening price to the low or high of the day during the London session. The trend usually lasts into 11:00 EST.
 
(II) The London Swing to Z Day Template
This template is found in the middle of a larger price swing when the trend is exhausted after a large explosive move. It is a narrow range day and ideally occurs on Thursday. 
 
This will unfold in the middle of a Larger swing (strong move has minor to no retracement, most of the time price will consolidate after a strong or very big move and this template will unfold).
If you had 2 – 3 days of big move, expect a pause in price.  



Price will initially drop below the opening price, then run above the opening price and go back to the range into consolidation. It first appears to unfold as the Classic Buy or Sell Template. But if it continues consolidating, do not look for continuation into the New York session. Take profits.
 
(III) The London Swing to New York Open / London Close Reversal Template
The bullish version of this template always begins like a Classic Buy or Sell template with a decline below the opening price before price starts rallying. Once price drops, a buy entry forms, price rallies to a higher time frame Point of Interest (POI). If this happens during the New York session, it indicates a classic market reversal. 

▪ The reversal market profile is one that typically forms as a Key Reversal Day.
▪ It will form a sell day during a bullish Asian, London and Possibly into New York session but fails to hold its rally and reverse lower.
▪ The swing up will likely be the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders top on higher time frame or swing up to the higher time frame OTE.
▪ This move will many times look just like classic London open buy day.
▪ Many times at 18:00 GMT or even later the market will eventually consolidate into the new trading day.
▪ The reversal market profile will form a buy day during bearish Asian, London and possibly into New York session but fails to hold its lower price slide and reverse higher.
▪ The swing down will likely be the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders bottom on higher time frame or swing down to the higher time frame 
OTE.
▪ This move will many times look just like classic London open sell day.


The template is used to either reach for a bearish order block on a higher time frame, for a turtle soup raid or to close a range. On a bullish day it will first create an initial low of the day during the London session, run up and create the high of the day during the New York session around the London Close, then run back down and clear the initial low that was created during the London session. Ideally it can pan out after the market is in exhaustion based on the higher time frame's dominant trend.
 
(IV) The Range to New York Open / London Close Rally Template
Generally this template is to be expected on days with high or medium impact news events like interest rate announcements, etc. Ahead of these events price will remain in consolidation during the Asian and London sessions. Lows will be cleared initially and after the news price explodes into a directional move.
 
This pattern will unfold most often during the NFP, FOMC and Interest Rates Announcements.
Before the News price will break London Lows and rally after News Release.
Always remember to see cross pairs of the major pair you are trading when this template unfolds.
If Dollar is dropping and EURUSD pair is consolidating EURJPY will be buying.
If Dollar dropping, GBP is buying and EUR is consolidating, wait for GBP to hit resistance level and EUR will give nice range to New York Open/London Close rally setup.
If majors are consolidating but crosses are moving, wait for the crosses to hit key Support/Resistance levels and come back to majors and trade to the direction of the crosses.
 
  
(V) The Consolidation Raid on News Release Template
Unfolding during the New York session on days with high impact news, mostly FOMC press releases. During and shortly after the news old highs and lows of prior consolidation levels will be taken out. Ideally buy when a low is taken out and sell when a prior high was breached.
 
This pattern will unfold most often during the NFP, FOMC and Interest Rates Announcements.
After opening price, market will consolidate before the News.
During the News releases price will drop to induce traders and take stops (this move might not be that big below the consolidation but it has to break the consolidation).
After clearing the stops and inducing, price will move into true direction.
You have to identify Key support level or order block below the consolidation.
See if price will reject at support/resistance within 5 minutes after News release, if it won’t reject then leave the trade because you might be wrong in your analysis.
 
 News are used to Inject Volatility. One of the most difficult ways to trade is to try to trade the News Releases. The Internet is littered with so-called robots or programs designed to quickly give you trading profits on the knee-jerk reaction to the news. This is pure gambling. We can never know for sure what the numbers will be in the reports, we don’t guess. However, we can wait for the release and watch the reaction and many times a signal will form within 5 minutes after the news release. Many times price will trade counter direction to the intended news hawks. 

 
 (VI) The London Swing to Seek & Destroy Template
This is the kind of day that won’t make you money. The Market Makers clear intention is to take out both buyers and sellers. Initially it would give you a London Open opportunity and setup, but very likely that won’t come to fruition. The narrow range zig-zag template lasts throughout the New York session and will oftentimes create an inside day. The template is usually applied in the middle or at the end of a larger price swing. 
 
This template will unfold most often after a big move/swing or at the end of the price move (support/resistance).
It is better to trade when a pair is in the middle of the range knowing it is going to support or resistance rather than trading a pair that is already in support/resistance because we don’t know if is going to hold the Support/Resistance or break it.