United Kingdom Configured for Civil War Within the Next 5 Years | David Betz

At first glance, the distant and telegenic United Kingdom may appear to most outsiders as one of the least likely countries to experience widespread civil unrest, typical of failed regimes. However, years of uncontrolled large-scale immigration, multiculturalism, economic decline and impoverishment, injustice, oppression, the COVID-19 craze, public insecurity, corruption, enforced wokeness, media indoctrination, permanent war-and-terror hysteria, a surveillance state, and individual intimidation and submission have led to widespread and stark religious, educational, moral, and ethical degeneracy across all social realms, Zionist and Wahhabi-Salafi-controlled extremism, as well as nearly omnipresent discontent and tension. As a result, the failed UK regime now seems to be on the brink of precisely that.
 

Professor David J. Betz, a top academic and government advisor, expects that the UK will experience a civil war within the next five years, caused by the "destruction of legitimacy" brought about by the government's failure to secure the border. Betz made these claims during a remarkable, profound, and shockingly plausible podcast appearance with journalist and author Louise Perry.

 

» This is worse for Europe than bombs falling out of the sky. The enemies
of Europe know this, which is why this is their weapon of choice. « 

 

Betz is neither alarmist nor sensationalistic. He has been researching and teaching at the Department of War Studies at King's College London for the past 25 years, focusing on the evolution of insurgency and counterinsurgency, information warfare and cyberwar, propaganda, civil-military relations, hybrid warfare, and grand military strategy. He has worked with the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) and Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), in addition to being a contributor to the current British counter insurgency doctrine (COIN) and a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). Professor Betz describes himself as a “classic member of the establishment” and explained Perry in concrete detail why and how British society is now "explosively configured" to experience mass unrest, critical infrastructure sabotage, and subsequent total breakdowns in institutions, society, economy, logistics, and law, along with excessive crime, violence, and anarchy. 

 

Now, what could and should be done to prevent all of this—power outages, burning cities, destroyed communication infrastructure, gang violence, looting, population displacement, famine, epidemics, and more? The UK is beyond repair; it's too late, and nothing and no one can stop this from happening, concludes Betz. When from London, Manchester, Birmingham, and similar places, you may already have some experience, but might want to learn additional valuable lessons from recent examples like Aleppo, Benghazi, Caracas, Mogadishu, Lagos, or Port-au-Prince. Have a solid community, family, and friends, be prepared with food, water, cash, skills, and more, and try to mitigate the impending damage and consequences, Betz recommends.

 

 » Caused by the destruction of legitimacy. «

 Between 1997 and 2013 in Rotherham 1,400 girls were sexually abused by Pakistani grooming gangs. 

And by 2020, a Home Office investigation report finds no links between ethnicity and child sexual abuse.

He said the fallout began with the fracture of the social contract after the political establishment in the UK tried to subvert the Brexit vote. Subsequent years have brought about a “destruction of legitimacy” as a result of successive governments’ open border policy and their inability to protect children and citizens from grooming gangs and rampant violence, in addition to a two-tier justice system presided over by a highly-politicized judiciary defending globalism, wokism, and illegal mass immigration. 

 

Given the situation today, this British scenario may apply, in one form or another, to most Western European countries, Canada, and possibly the US.

Reference:
David Betz talks with Louise Perry (February 12, 2025) - The Coming British Civil War. (podcast)

 

 The Coming Fall of the House of Windsor, Lyndon LaRouche, 1994.

See also:

Martin Sellner (March 11, 2025) - Europe Has Had Its Soul Colonized.

Constantin von Hoffmeister (February 24, 2025) - Waiting for the Axe of History to Fall.

Markku Siira (February 18, 2025) - The Sidonius Apollinaris Syndrome.

了解你的敌人
Know your Enemies.

The Sidonius Apollinaris Syndrome | Markku Siira

If people don't want to witness the growth of certain crisis phenomena, the 21st century is relentlessly sweeping over them. Russian historian Andrei Fursov has coined the term "Sidonius Apollinaris Syndrome" to describe this. He draws inspiration from Sidonius Apollinaris, a Christian bishop, writer, and poet in ancient Rome. A significant collection of letters he wrote to friends and family has survived, offering an essential look at 4th-century history. In one of these letters, Sidonius describes the world as a peaceful and tranquil place. He writes: ”We are living in magnificent times, peace and tranquility reign everywhere; I sit by the pool at my villa, a dragonfly hovers over the water, the world is beautiful”. However, not long after, the Roman Empire collapsed. Fursov points to this historical blindness, noting that it is "partly due to ignorance and partly simply a reluctance to see and understand."

 » We are living in magnificent times, peace and tranquility reign everywhere; 

I sit by the pool at my villa, a dragonfly hovers over the water, the world is beautiful. «
Gaius Sollius Modestus Sidonius Apollinaris: Aristocrat, Poet, Diplomat, Senator, Prefect of Rome, Consul,

Bishop of Clermont, Torchbearer of Faith, Father of the Church, Saint of the Roman Universal Church; 450 AD.

Today, we live in an era of political and economic stagnation, marked by an increasing number of global conflicts. The situation seems to worsen with every passing day. Fursov argues that we are witnessing the "quantitative accumulation of negative trends," and at some point, "quantity turns into quality." In other words, these trends may reach a tipping point, leading to a dramatic change. Historical events can unfold quickly and unexpectedly. Fursov recalls a friend's grandmother commenting on the collapse of the Soviet Union, saying, "You can’t imagine how fast it happened. Before lunch, all the shops were still open, but by lunchtime, everything had already shut down." This sudden shift demonstrates how societal structures can unravel at a startling pace.

Fursov believes that old structures and institutions are beginning to falter in the modern world. He underscores that such periods of transformation often lead to the renewal or collapse of social and political systems. The European Union, for example, could face collapse due to internal contradictions and external pressures. Could we be witnessing the disintegration of a new "Eurostate" that would dramatically reshape Europe’s political landscape?

 In 451 AD, Attila the Hun, leader of the Huns, invaded the Western Roman Empire, specifically Gaul

(modern-day France), marking a significant military campaign against the weakened Roman state.

Similarly, the political polarization within the United States, Trump’s foreign policy stance, and the rise of Russia and China may weaken NATO’s influence in the West. This could result in a series of power-political upheavals, where traditional alliances fall apart, leading to new global power structures.

 

» Characteristic of dark times in history. «

Fursov advises that in order to survive under harsh conditions, it’s crucial to analyze and understand current trends. But it’s equally important to be physically prepared for scarcity. "The entire 21st century will be filled with battles on all levels," he warns—within the elite, between the elite and the middle class, and between the lower classes and the elite. This kind of turmoil is characteristic of dark times in history. Additionally, the massive influx of migrants contributes to the chaos, creating a situation resembling the Brownian movement. In this environment, Fursov argues, one must be ready to seize opportunities as they arise. Over the next 20-30 years, he believes, people will be united by a common desire to preserve their place in history as bearers of a particular civilization and cultural code. However, this tradition, which is over a thousand years old, is now under threat.

Unfortunately, the current trajectory offers little reason for optimism. Globalization, technological revolution, and the erosion of cultural identity seem to be intensifying. If we fail to stop and assess where we are headed, we risk ending up in a world where the past is forgotten, and the future is severed from its roots.

Quoted from:
Markku Siira (February 3, 2025) - Andrei Fursov ja seuraava suuri kriisi.

 

了解你的敌人
Know your Enemies.

The US Is Now Ready for Violence, Civil War & Secession | Martin Armstrong

This will probably be the last election in the United States, for we will most likely split into three regional governments. [...] There is no question that post-election violence will be extreme. Whenever you have this winner-takes-all system and political corruption unfolds, the LEFT is not seeking to govern the nation; they are seeking to oppress all opponents.

 

 » The United States will most likely split into three regional governments. «

 

[...] Democracies are supposed to be where people have the right to vote. The Democrats were denied the right even to select their candidate. This is tyranny, for Kamala was merely installed. [...] Typically, governments go into civil wars when there is a conflict that is culturally/ethnically, religiously, or racially driven, and we are now checking that box and just waiting for the election. We will face a rigged and contested election that neither side will accept. When there is no confidence in the government anymore, the ONLY resolution is always violence. History confirms this prognostication. How can there be such fantastic polls for Kamala, who never won a single delegate during the 2020 primary, and we look at the only real independent poll organization that shows confidence in Congress down to 7%?

 » No question that post-election violence will be extreme. «

It does not matter who wins. This election will NEVER be accepted, and it certainly will NOT unify the country. The Democratic Convention threw Trump’s name out 329 times. It was just a hate fest. That will ensure violence. The LEFT will never accept a Trump victory – NO WAY!!!!! There is no belief that this election will be free and fair. The United States has declined into this dangerous characteristic that warns the country is far too divided to stand. I am concerned that the dollar may decline FOR THIS REASON. I want to think that reform is possible. Unfortunately, history tells us that when an empire, nation, country, or city-state is this divided, REFORM becomes possible only AFTER violence.  

 

Quoted from:
Martin A. Armstrong (August 30, 2024) - Can the Dollar Survive a Civil War?

 

See also:
The Alex Jones Show (August 30, 2024) - Martin Armstrong Warns 2024 Will
Probably Be The Last U.S. Election. (video)

 

» The most important historical events occur in the 3-year period around sunspot maximums. «
Alexander Chizhevsky — 1924

» The most important European revolutions of the XIX and XX century overlapped closely
with the sunspot maximums. «
Mikhail Gorbanev — 2016

Migrant Gangs Taking Control of US Cities. — August 30, 2024

See also:
Martin A. Armstrong (June 6, 2024) - The Five Stages of the Revolutionary Cycle.

L. David Linsky (October 24, 2023) - War and Regime Change soon in the US.

Mikhail Gorbanev (2016) - Solar Activity and Economic Recessions.

 Serge Bernard (2016) - From Conquest to Affluence to Collapse: The 250 Year Empire Life Cycle.

Maurice Cotterell (2001) - Sunspots and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations.

Alexander Chizhevsky (1924) - Physical Factors of the Historical Process.

The 500 Year Cycle | Raymond H. Wheeler

The 1000 year cycle tends to break down into halves of about 500 years each. Centering on the dates of 375 BC, 30 AD, 460 AD, 955 AD, and 1475 AD, climate was dry and colder than usual. The warm periods were short and were often disrupted by drops in temperature. Midway between these dates, the warm periods stretched out; the interruptions were not as long, and the cold periods shortened. The result is an intermediate cycle averaging 510 years in length.

 

 

 » Mass migrations were extensive, and all the ancient civilizations collapsed. «

Vandals sacking Rome, 455 AD.

The beginning of the first of these 500-year rhythms marks an important place in the history of climate. Prior to 575 BC, climatic cycles were longer and more extreme than they have been since then. In the two centuries immediately following, from 450 ta 320 BC, it was warm much of the time. Two 100-year cycles were almost fused into one. The cold period between them, at 420 BC, was very short. After that, the cold periods lengthened. By the end of this 500-year period, at the time of Christ, there was an exceptionally long cold period.

The cold phase centering on 460 AD, at the end of the next 500-year cycle, was also exceptionally cold. Mass migrations were extensive, and all the ancient civilizations collapsed. There was a long-term downward trend in rainfall. Although there were long cold phases in the 600s and 700s, they were frequently interrupted by silts to the warm side and did not seem to be exceptionally bad. The cold phases of the 800s and 900s were extremely severe, causing many migrations, primarily from the northern countries — especially when conditions began to deteriorate approaching 955, near the end of the 500-year rhythm.

 

 » Civilizations broke up and new ones took their places. «

 Migrants storming European Union borders, 2024 AD.

Subsequently, temperatures warmed suddenly. The 1000s were so warm that trees grew in Greenland. This was the period when Vikings crossed the Atlantic, One of the most severe hot droughts in history occurred in the 1130s. The 13th century saw a long warm period. Then climate began to deteriorate again. While the 14th century was warm much of the time, there were frequent and sharp drops in temperature; often it was very stormy. During several winters, the straits between Denmark and Sweden froze over solid enough to support horses and sleds, Greenland began to freeze. In the 15th century, there was no long warm period.

The next 500-year rhythm terminated at 1475. Subsequently, temperatures warmed up again. The 17th century was so warm that the next 100-year cycle had but a short cold phase, centering on 1655, and this was quickly interrupted by a shift back to the warm side. During the 19th and 20th centuries, climate deteriorated again.

 

» The 500 year period beginning at 1475 is drawing to a close. «

 Migrants breaching US southern border, 2024 AD.

Events of great importance occur every 500 years. Midway between 575 BC and 460 AD, the Roman Empire began its decline as Christianity rose. There were no strong European civilizations for a long time. On the other hand, there were very strong Asiatic empires such as that of the Huns. Midway between 460 and 1475, in the 9th and 10th centuries, a vast change occurred, again involving mass migrations, These events divided the Middle Ages into two halves. In the first half, there were brilliant empires like those of Justinian with its capital at Constantinople, Charlemagne in the West, and the Arabs in the East. The Arabs moved into Spain and India, developing brilliant civilizations at Cordoba and Bagdad. But all this came to an end. These civilizations broke up and new ones took their places. Following 975, the feudal period developed, with the growth of principalities that were to form modern European states. Amazing empires were built by the Mongols in Asia, the Incas in South America, and the Mayas in Central America. In India and Japan, new empires were born. The Balkans achieved their Golden Ages during this period.

All this came to an end in the 15th century. The Medieval economy, customs, and modes of thought disappeared. With the new 500-year climatic cycle came the Renaissance, the Reformation, and the building of modern nations — first under absolute monarchs, then under constitutional governments. This most recent 500-year cycle has witnessed the awakening of modern art, science, and economics. In these more advanced civilizations, the common people have, for the first time in history, come into their own under democratic political and economic systems.

 » The same types of events occur with almost clock-like regularity. «

The 500 year period beginning at 1475 is drawing to a close. We are now witnessing many of the same types of events that have occurred under similar circumstances with almost clock-like regularity five times before in history. These events are of the utmost significance for the businessman and student of today — and tomorrow.

 

Quoted from:

Raymond H. Wheeler (1943) - The 500 Year Cycle. 

In: Michael G. Zahorchak (Ed. 1983) - Climate, the Key to Understanding Business Cycles: 

With a Forecast of Trends Into the 21st Century.

 

  » A 500-year cycle is now terminating, which belonged to Europe.
The next 500-year cycle will belong to Asia. «
Raymond H. Wheeler, 1951.

See also:

Alexander Dugin (2024) - Construction of Hell in the Modern Era.
Glenn Diesen (2024)  - 500 Years of Western Dominance - What Comes Next.
Raymond H. Wheeler (1943) - The 100 Year Cycle - Climate, Regime Change and War.
Donald A. Bradley (1943) - Cycles Write World History.

Peter Temple (2017) - The Wheel of Time. Raymond H. Wheeler's Drought Clock.

Youth Bulge Options - A Demographic Theory of War | Gunnar Heinsohn

Today approximately 44 percent of the world’s 7.2 billion people are under 24 years old - and 26 percent are under 14. A staggering 82 percent live in less developed regions of the world – primarily sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Currently, the global median age is 29.2 years, a sharp contrast to Europe, for example, where the median age is 41. Of the 20 states with the lowest median ages worldwide, 18 are in sub-Saharan Africa. The UN predicts that the median age will rise to 42 years by the century’s end, and with it the world’s population will increase to 10.9 billion people. Developing and least developed countries have the highest fertility rates and many are expected to triple in population by 2100. The populations of Burkina Faso, Malawi, Niger, Mali, Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia are predicted to increase by 500%. In these countries demographic pressure is already responsible for food scarcity, water scarcity, malnutrition, and disease. 

The Youth Bulge Theory attempts to explain and to predict social conflict, migration, conquest and war, and was first introduced by the CIA in 1995 (The Demographic Backdrop to Ethnic Conflict: A Geographic Overview). Youth bulge specifically refers to a disproportionate percentage of a state population being between the ages of 15 and 24 years old. But the main point of the Youth Bulge Theory is that an excess in especially young adult male population predictably leads to social unrest, war and terrorism, as the third and fourth sons that find no prestigious positions in their existing societies rationalize their impetus to compete by religion or political ideology. 

In his study Söhne und Weltmacht (Sons and World Power: Terror in the Rise and Fall of Nations; 2003) German genocide expert Gunnar Heinsohn investigated family size in various societies in relation to the frequency of violent conflict since 1500 A.D. He concluded, that the presence of large numbers of young men in nations that have experienced population explosions — all searching for respect, work, sex and meaning — tend to turn into violent countries and become involved in wars. Heinsohn’s demographic materialism is not concerned with the absolute size of populations, but rather with the share of teenagers and young men. If the population under the age of 20 becomes 40% or more compared to the total, society is facing a youth bulge. Serious problems start when families begin to produce three, four or more sons.  Faced with limited resources, the surplus sons' competition for power and prestige does only leave six options: #1 Violent Crime, #2 Civil War, #3 Revolution, #4 Emigration, #5 Genocide, and #6 War of Conquest or Colonization.  
  

This is a man's world:
Somali surplus sons warming up for option #2.

Youth bulge can be seen as one factor among many in explaining social unrest and uprisings in society. But Heinsohn essentially claims that most historical periods of social unrest are lacking external triggers (such as rapid climatic changes or other catastrophic changes of the environment). Even most genocides can be readily explained as a result of a built-up youth bulge, including European colonialism, 20th-century fascism, the rise of Communism during the Cold War, the Arab Spring, and ongoing conflicts such as in Somalia, South Sudan, Central African Republic or in Mali. Since more than a decade Heinsohn keeps warning Western politicians about the too many angry young men outside the Euro-American world today — above all, too many Muslim young men in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. He considers them one of the principal threats to the West in the first quarter of the 21st century, and illustrates this also in the recent examples of Afghanistan and Iraq: Since 1950, Iraqi fathers of all ethnic and religious groups have sired, on the average, three to four sons. They produced a youth bulge. Saddam Hussein canalized this youth bulge in the options #4 to #6 (genocide, war of conquest, numerous Iraqis went into exile). Following Saddam's removal from power the competition for positions of power was transformed into a civil war (option #2) that is being driven by a massive wave of sons. It may not be easy to recognize the current violence as a civil war, because the Americans and their allies are fighting on one of the sides. But the fact that this was a civil war would become clear through its continuation once the US at her allies withdraw. The same phenomenon could be seen — according to Heinsohn — in Afghanistan (see video clip HERE) where the enormous surplus of sons could never be absorbed, in spite of the recruitment of large numbers of police and military personnel. War would therefore inevitably continue in one way or another even after the withdrawal of Western troops.