Bullish Hurst Cycle Targets for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin | David Hickson

For the S&P 500, an 18-month cycle trough likely formed on April 7, 2025, with confidence upgraded from the prior 80-day cycle analysis. A 40-day cycle trough occurred on May 7, 2025, with price holding above the 20-day FLD, signaling bullishness. An 80-day cycle trough is expected in the first week of June 2025, preceded by a peak. A 20-week cycle trough is anticipated around August 2025. Price crossing the 80-day FLD targets 6,360 before the June trough, while crossing the 20-week FLD targets 6,780 before the August trough. The 80-day FLD should provide support in June. Staying above the 20-day FLD during the 40-day trough and FLD crossings reflect strong bullish momentum, reinforcing the April 18-month trough.

 80-Day Cycle Trough expected around the first week of June, with a prior peak around 6,360.

18-Month Cycle Trough on April 7, 2025, with increased confidence from prior 80-day cycle analysis.
40-Day Cycle Trough on May 7, 2025, with price staying above the 20-day FLD, indicating bullishness.
80-Day Cycle Trough around the first week of June 2025, with a peak forming beforehand.
20-Week Cycle Trough around August 2025.

80-Day FLD Crossing generated a target of ~6,360, expected before the 80-day cycle trough in June 2025.
20-Week FLD Crossing generated a target of ~6,780, expected before the 20-week cycle trough in August 2025.
Support Level: The 80-day FLD is expected to provide support during the 80-day cycle trough in June 2025.

For Bitcoin, a 40-week cycle trough likely formed in early April 2025, supported by price finding stability at the 40-week FLD. A recent 40-day cycle trough formed with price at or above the 20-day FLD, showing bullishness. An 80-day cycle trough is expected by late June 2025, following a peak. An 18-month or possible 54-month cycle trough occurred in August 2024. The 40-week FLD provided support in April, and prior crossing generated an achieved upside target. Shortened cycles, like the early 40-day trough, suggest a bullish trend. Price behavior at the 20-day FLD and FLD support confirm the 40-week trough, though shorter cycle positioning, like the 20-week trough, remains uncertain. 

 80-Day Cycle Trough expected toward the end of June 2025, with a peak around 109,697 forming prior.

40-Week Cycle (= 9-Month Cycle) Trough likely formed in early April 2025, with evidence of support at the 40-week FLD.
40-Day Cycle Trough formed recently, with price staying at or above the 20-day FLD, indicating bullishness.
80-Day Cycle Trough  expected by end of June 2025, with a peak forming prior.
18-Month Cycle Trough formed in August 2024 (potentially a 54-month cycle trough).

40-Week FLD Interaction: Price found support at the 40-week FLD level in April 2025, confirming the trough.
Upside Target: Prior 40-week FLD crossing generated a target (achieved), with current bullishness suggesting further upside to around 109,697 and 123,519.

Reference:
David Hickson (May 19, 2025)  - Bullish Cycle Targets - Hurst Cycles Market Update for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. (video) 

 

See also:

Krasi (May 17, 2025)  - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis. 

Namzes (April 18, 2025)  - 2025 vs V-Shaped Recoveries of 1965, 1992, and 2018. 

 

Current 20-Day Cycle in the S&P expected to bottom during first week of June.
 

 S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue.

 

Russell 2000 and NASDAQ historically strongest in
week before Memorial Day (Monday, May 26).

 

 US Fed bought $43.6 billion in treasuries in 4 days.

"Three Day Whaley" Predicting 20% Average Annual Return | Wayne Whaley

When the S&P 500 experiences a one-day upside move of three standard deviations or more, there is often a tendency for the index to undergo some level of profit-taking (consolidation) over the next couple of days. However, if the index defies this tendency and follows the initial surge with two consecutive positive days, it signals strength. This pattern, known as the "Three Day Whaley," is a notable market move deserving of attention.

 The "Three Day Whaley" signal has a perfect 30-0 record since 1950

for predicting positive annual returns averaging 20.2%.

Volatility has increased over the past 75 years. The setup for this pattern requires the S&P to post a move on Day 1 that reflects the volatility during that specific period, followed by two consecutive positive days. The threshold for that initial move has evolved from around 2.25% in 1950 to 3.25% in 2025.

On May 12-14, the S&P met the criteria for this setup with a three-day sequence of 3.25%, 0.76%, and 0.10%—its first occurrence since March 26, 2020, which was followed by a 50.55% annual gain.

Since 1950, the S&P has gone 30-0 in the year following this setup, with an average annual gain of 20.2%. All 30 instances have seen at least a 7.5% gain, and only four of the 30 cases experienced a double-digit drawdown. The first-day threshold requirement can be found in column 3 (DAY1 THHLD) in the table above.

Reference:
Wayne Whaley (May 17, 2025)  - A 30-0 Three Day Whaley.

See also:

Paul Ciana (May 17, 2025)  - S&P 500 on Track for Strongest May-to-July Gains in Years.

Ryan Detrick (May 16, 2025) - S&P 500: More Good News for Bulls.

S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis | Krasi

We now have a potentially completed pattern on the hourly chart, with the schedule aligning to week 8 for the 10-week high, suggesting it's time for a pullback toward the 10-week low.

In the short term, the RSI appears to form a triangle in the middle, suggesting a possible zig-zag pattern with a running triangle as the Elliott B-wave. In the intermediate term, a zig-zag pattern is testing the 200-day moving average and the RSI trendline. The next move is a pullback, followed by a rise into July.

 

In the short term, Hurst cycles are nearing the 10-week high, with the next move likely to be a decline toward the 10-week low.

The 40-week low in early April 2025 was right on schedule, with the next move expected to be a rise toward the 40-week high.

 

Reference:
Krasi (May 17, 2025)  - Practical Technical Analysis: Weekly Preview.

 

» Absent an escalating trade war, there is no theme right now that can push stocks massively lower (i.e. re-test the April lows). 

I expect stocks to trade in a wide and volatile range throughout 2025 [...] perhaps making marginal all-time highs. «

 Subu Trade, May 17, 2025.

 

See also:

Namzes (April 18, 2025)  - 2025 vs V-Shaped Recoveries of 1965, 1992, and 2018. 

Namzes (April 16, 2025)  - S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue = 89% Correlation.

Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy.

S&P 500 on Track for Strongest May-to-July Gains in Years | Paul Ciana

Bank of America's Paul Ciana analyzes 96 years of S&P 500 data to highlight the index's seasonal historical performance from May to July, and reveals average gains of 2.5% since 1928 and 5% since 2015.

 S&P 500 Average Trend: 3-Month Look Ahead (April 30 to July 31).

The S&P 500 closed at approximately 5,958 on May 16, 2025, up from 5,584 on May 1. This represents a 7.16% increase from May 1 to May 16. Forecasts predict that May will average 6,017, ending at 6,249, marking an 11.5% monthly rise. June and July also show positive projections, with June at 6,600 and July at 6,566. Historically, the period from May to July sees a 2.5% gain since 1928, or 5% since 2015. This year’s forecast suggests a 17.6% rise, well above the historical averages.

The current 7.16% increase from May 1 to May 16 already surpasses the historical three-month average, indicating that the seasonal trend is not only holding but also exceeding expectations. While the bullish momentum in the first week of May is clear, the second week is typically bearish. However, the market has continued to rise, possibly due to strong investor sentiment suggesting further gains through July, potentially reaching a 17.6% increase by July 31—far above the 2.5% and 5% historical averages. Capital Economics expects the S&P 500 to hit 7,000 by year-end, while Goldman Sachs predicts a 10% return for 2025, both supporting the idea of strong seasonal performance.

Reference:
Neil Sethi (April 30, 2025) –  BoA Paul Ciana’s S&P 500 Seasonal Trend from May to July.

Biggest 6-Week VIX% Declines and Forward S&P 500 Total Returns AND
Biggest 27 Trading Day Rallies (1950-2025).

See also:

Charlie Bilello (May 16, 2025)  - One of the Greatest Comebacks in Market History. (video)

The Economy Forecast Agency (May 16, 2025)  - S&P 500 FORECAST 2025, 2026, 2027-2029.
Ryan Detrick (May 16, 2025) - S&P 500: More Good News for Bulls.

Paul Ciana (April 4, 2025) - Second Week of April Up 72% of the Time. 

S&P 500: More Good News for Bulls | Ryan Detrick

On average, it is 18.7% higher a year later, 20 out of 20 times since 1976:

Performance of S&P 500 after more than 58% of components reach new 20-day highs.

When more than 58% of S&P 500 components hit a 20-day high, the index has historically risen by an average of 18.7% over the next 12 months, with a 100% success rate across 20 instances since 1976. Gains are less pronounced but still positive in the short term, averaging 1.7% (1 month), 5.6% (3 months), and 9.7% (6 months), with positive returns 80-85% of the time. The latest May 14, 2025, event (68% of components at a 20-day high) aligns with this historical pattern, suggesting a high probability of gains by May 14, 2026.

 

Historical May performance in post-election years (1950-2021) shows a typical pattern of strong gains in the first 6 trading days (average >1%), followed by a dip from days 6-9, and a rally through month-end. This contrasts with 2025 trends for major indices such as the NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow, and Russell 2000. By mid-May, all indices had broken above their 200-day moving averages.

 

Can we get a pullback? 24% of NASDAQ 100 stocks are overbought with an RSI above 70, a threshold indicating potential price corrections; historically, since 2020, this condition has led to a 1-week pullback 55% of the time, with an average decline of 0.71%.

 

The VIX has dropped for 6 consecutive weeks, a rare streak historically linked to potential stock market pullbacks, as shown in the data from 1992 to 2024, where the S&P 500 averaged a -0.63% return one week later in similar scenarios. The S&P 500 tends to face short-term corrections, with historical data indicating negative returns in the following 1 to 4 days 63-78% of the time, suggesting a volatility spike may be imminent.

 

 

It wasn't long ago people were talking about the Death Cross in the SPX. Back then we pointed out that the last time the death cross occurred (2022), markets reversed aggressively and managed to overshoot the 200 day by around 3.5%. A similar overshoot now would take us to around 6k.

 

 

The dominant 82-day cycle suggests a peak in the ES around June 10, followed by a decline into early August. 

 

See also:

Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy.

Cosmic Cluster Days | May 2025

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. The 'noise channel' serves as a signal filter, with the upper and lower limits of the channel being empirically defined. That said, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows also within the 'noise channel,' may correlate with or coincide with short-term market trends and reversals.

 

Cosmic Cluster Days  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel    — — —  Solunar Rhythm

 ○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon | ▴  = Lunar Declination max North / ▾ = max South |  立春 =  Solar Terms

 

Cosmic Cluster Days in May 2025:

 Apr 30 (Wed) | May 25 (Sun) | Jun 24 (Tue)

 

Venus at Greatest Elongation on Sunday, June 1, 2025 at 4:00 EDT.

 

For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation method, click [HERE].

 

Lunation Cycle, click [HERE].  

Planet Speed (Retrogradity), click [HERE]. 

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Turning Points, click [HERE]. 

Sensitive Degrees of the Sun, click [HERE].

Planetary Declinations, click [HERE].

The SoLunar Rhythm in May 2025.

 

Selected geocentric events in May 2025 (EST/EDT).