Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Contrarian Riddle

The one sentiment reading that is NOT contrarian just turned bearish
(above 50 = bullish, below = bearish) ...
Source: Market Vane via ‏@Not_Jim_Cramer
... while FT covers like this one reliably show up
when market bottoms are close-by or already in.

Monday, September 28, 2015

The US Economy Is Doing Great!

Credits: FRED

Yesterday Sunspots Increased = Today Market Should Decline

However, the daily sunspot number reached a 2 year high (154) while the SoLunar Map signals an upturn in the stock market (see also HERE)

Cosmic Cluster Days in October - November 2015

Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) are:
Sep 30 (Wed), Oct 02 (Fri), Oct 07 (Wed), Oct 11 (Sun), Oct 24 (Sat), Oct 26 (Mon), Nov 01 (Sun),
Nov 03 (Tue), Nov 04 (Wed), Nov 19 (Thu), Nov 21 (Sat), Nov 26 (Thu), Nov 28 (Sat), Dec 02 (Wed).
Previous CCDs are
HERE
HERE

SoLunar Map for October - November 2015

A Low in the SoLunar Map frequently is a High in the Stock Market and vice versa. Inversions occur. Upcoming turn-days are:
Sep 28 (Mon), Oct 01 (Thu), Oct 05 (Mon), Oct 09 (Fri), Oct 13 (Tue), Oct 16 (Fri), Oct 20 (Tue), Oct 24 (Sat), Oct 28 (Wed), Oct 31 (Sat),
Nov 03 (Tue), Nov 07 (Sat), Nov 11 (Wed), Nov 15 (Sun), Nov 18 (Wed), Nov 22 (Sun), Nov 26 (Thu), Nov 30 (Mon), Dec 03 (Thu).
Previous SoLunar Maps
HERE
HERE

SoLunar Intraday Maps - October 2015

The charts show the hourly solunar forces over Wall Street. Intraday movements of financial markets are strongly influenced 
by daily and intraday solunar forces. They usually closely follow their direction - either directly or inverted. Turning points can
be fine-tuned using the previously described planetary hours as well as the times of rising, culminating and setting planets.
Please note: The times calculated refer to EST (not EDT).

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Gold Prices 1257 - 2011 (Historical Chart)


Stock Prices 1509 - 2014 (Historical Charts)


Commodity Prices 1170 - 2011 (Historical Chart)


Interest Rates 1150 - 2014 (Historical Charts)

See also HERE

Ranking Sovereign Debt - Three Ways To Look At Keynesian Insanity

Credits: Visual Capitalist

Jeff Hirsch: October’s Typical Performance

Jeff Hirsch (Sep 26, 2015) - October’s typical performance appears in the chart at left over the recent 21-year span 1994 to 2014. On average, early month weakness has proven to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for NASDAQ (purple line) as early losses were quickly recouped leading to an average gain of over 3% from early month lows to the close.
Since 1991, October, the first month of the fourth quarter has improved substantially, climbing to fourth best DJIA month with an average gain of 1.6%. It’s the third best S&P 500 month (+1.6%) and second best for NASDAQ (+2.3%). Russell 2000 has not seen as much improvement with October climbing to just #8.

Highest Daily Sunspot Number since April 2014

Source: NOAA

Friday, September 25, 2015

Bund Spread Gives Permission for Bear Market | Tom McClellan

Tom McClellan (Sep 24, 2015) - [...] German government bonds are known in the industry as “Bunds”, a contraction of the prefix “bundes” which is German for “federal”.  At the major stock market tops in 2000 and 2007, we saw the peak in the 10-year Bund-Treasury spread appear well in advance of the final price tops for stocks.  So because that spread was still rising in April 2014, my supposition then was that the uptrend had more months to live. Now we see a different condition.

Credits: Tom McClellan HERE + HERE
The Bund-Treasury spread peaked at 1.81 percentage points back in March 2015, and has since been contracting. Meanwhile, the DJIA and SP500 kept on rising to incrementally higher price highs as the summer wore on, eventually breaking down with the August 2015 minicrash. 

[...] With a divergence now in place between the DJIA and the Bund-Treasury spread, we can have a reasonable expectation that a bear market for stock prices should ensue.  If it plays out like the last two, the bear market should last until the Bund-Treasury spread gets back down at least to parity, or preferably even lower. That could take a while; in the 2000 and 2007 examples, it took a couple of years. The eurodollar COT leading indication already tells us to expect a downward trend until April 2016, so that gives us at least several months to see how the Bund-Treasury spread behaves.

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

SPX vs Sunspots

Sunspots shifted +49 days
The Ap index measures geomagnetic activity and the 10.7 cm Flux is considered a sunspot-proxy.
Source:
NOAA

Martin Armstrong on the DJIA