Tuesday, May 28, 2024

During June the S&P 500 tends to be true to the trend | Wayne Whaley

The S&P has a well deserved reputation for being flat as a pancake in the summer with June no exception, coming in at 31-19 over the last 50 years for a pedestrian type, 0.52% average monthly gain.  However, if the market is behaving well, the month of June has tended to follow suit. Below, I took the last 50 yrs and split them into 3 categories comprised of years where

1. January - May was negative
2. January - May was 0-8% and
3. January - May was greater then 8%.


In those 35 years in which the S&P was positive for the 1st five months of the year, the month of June was 27-8 with the 3% June moves, 12-1 in the positive direction as opposed to a 4-11 June record in those years where the 1st five months of the year were negative with the 3% June moves 1-4.

In particular, the +8% January-May starts saw June averaging a 2.34% gain. As of Tuesday's close, May 28, the S&P is up 11.24% for the first five months of 2024.

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S&P 500 Update - High May 23-30 & Low June 13 | Allen Reminick

Today is May 27th, and in the very short term the S&P may just stay up for a couple of more days, possibly even with a new high on May 30th.

 From around July 4th high a big break into the July 16th or 24th potential lows (C wave).

Then we are looking for a breakdown into June 3rd and June 13th lows (Elliott Wave A). This will be followed by a choppy, sideways-to-up rally until roughly the July 4th weekend (B wave). 
 
 Allen Reminick - May 14, 2024.

Then there should be a big break into the 16th or the 24th of July potential lows (C wave). The last part of July is where most of the damage could be done.

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Monday, May 27, 2024

ICT Intraday Templates & Setups for ES/NQ/YM | Michael J. Huddleston

There are six Intraday Templates and Trading Setups for the S&P (ES), the Nasdaq (NQ) and the Dow Jones (YM) - three bullish and three bearish ones:
  • Two Session Up Close OR Two Session Down Close. (1.1 + 1.2)
  • AM Rally and PM Reversal OR AM Decline and PM Reversal. (2.1 + 2.2)
  • Consolidation AM Rally and PM Decline OR Consolidation AM Decline and PM Rally. (3.1 + 3.2)
1.1    Two Session Up Close (Trend Day ≈ 10% of all trading days)
If we are in the middle of an intermediate or long term price swing based on what we would see on the HTF (Higher timeframes = 4 hour, daily, weekly, monthly) chart, this is the classic scenario. When we start approaching HTF opposing arrays, this profile is less likely to occur. The daily range can go straight trough the lunch hour with very little consolidation whatsoever, depending on what the catalyst was that send prices higher it could be a very strong economic news release. Don't think we’ll always get the consolidation in lunch hour, if we move higher fast there is a chance they work trough lunch. PM session would be ideal if its symmetrical to the AM session.

  • Institutional Order Flow (IOF): Bullish.
  • AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then rallies.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Lows [Sell Stops] OR Drops into a Fair Value (FV) Discount Array then rallies into Close.
 1.2    Two Session Down Close (Trend Day ≈ 10% of all trading days)
If we are in the middle of an intermediate or long term price swing based on what we would see on the HTF chart, this is the classic scenario. When we start approaching HTF opposing arrays, this profile is less likely to occur.
 

  • Institutional Order Flow: Bearish.
  • AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then declines.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Highs [Buy Stops] OR Rises into a Fair Value Discount Array then declines into Close.
 
Tips for Two Session Up Close OR Two Session Down Close = trending days:
► When daily and 4H institutional order flow is bullish (two session up close)/bearish (two session down close).
► If we're in the middle of an intermediate term or long term price swing based on what we see on the HTF chart, then this is the classic scenario until we start approaching an opposing array on the 4h/daily/weekly. PM session would be ideal if its symmetrical to the AM session (measured move).
► The daily range can go straight through the lunch hour with very little consolidation whatsoever, depending on what the catalyst was that send prices higher it could be a very strong or surprised economic news release.
► Don't think we'll always get the consolidation in lunch hour, if we move higher fast there's a chance they work through lunch.
► ► How to trade: ICT always looks for SMT (Smart Money Tool / Smart Money Technique) between the 3 indices at the lows/highs on both sessions.
AM SMT: compare London lows/highs and 9:30 am lows/highs.
PM SMT: compare lunch lows/highs and the high/low formed from the 13:00 candle. One has to diverge.
AM session hold till about 10:30-11:00 and also look for 15m PD arrays.
PM session: besides the SMT we can also return to FVG or OB formed in lunch hour.

2.1    AM Rally PM Reversal (Typical Day ≈ 25% of all trading days)
Price is yet to fulfill a completion of a bullish run, but very close to where we are presently there is a higher time frame premium PD (Premium/Discount) array. The session will start off bullish until it hits the HTF PD array which causes the intraday market reversal.
 
  • Institutional Order Flow: Bullish - under HTF Premium-Discount Array.
  • AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then rallies.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Highs [Buy Stops] and reverses into Close OR Runs the Intraday High and then reverses into Close.
  • PM Trend can resume higher if AM session Discount = HTF.
 
2.2   AM Decline and PM Reversal (Typical Day ≈ 25% of all trading days)

 
  • Institutional Order Flow: Bearish (IOF) - above HTF Discount Premium/Discount Array.
    AM Trend: Returns to a Premium Array then declines.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Lows [Sell Stops] and then reverses into Close OR Runs the Intraday Lows and then reverses into Close..
  • PM Trend can resume lower if AM session Premium = HTF. 

 
Tips for AM Rally PM reversal (bullish)/AM Decline PM reversal (bearish):
► When daily and 4H institutional order flow is bullish/bearish and price is near a 4H/daily TF PD array, so this model is the completion of a run. AM session is bullish/bearish until it hits the HTF pd array which causes the intraday market reversal.
► In the AM scenario you first drop into a 1H or 4H discount (bullish) / premium (bearish), then rally into HTF PD array (4H/daily/weekly).
Smart money reversal (SMR) - PM trend could either
- Run out the AM high/low and then rally or make a LH when it reverses. Just a run above a STH is also possible.
- Be just a retracement into the AM range and then continue HTF trend or really reverse on HTF. How do we know which one the PM trend will do? The PM session can resume higher/lower (reversal) if the AM session premium array equals a higher timeframe (4H, daily, weekly, monthly) premium array, it can go back into that array in PM and recapitalize that and then go lower and resume lower. If that’s NOT the case we can expect price to continue until we reach that HTF array.
► ► How to trade: ICT always looks for SMT between the 3 indices at the lows/highs on both sessions.
AM SMT: compare London lows/highs and 9:30 lows/highs. PM SMT: compare lunch lows/highs and the high/low formed from the 13:00 candle. One has to diverge. So in the bearish scenario: If the AM high around 10:30am EST but often closer to 11:00 is below a 15m or the PD array, then we're going to be anticipating, before it even happens, outside the London lunch around 1 pm an initial rally into the 15m PD array followed by a HTF reversal. So in the AM session we're going to be holding our trade until there.
PM SMT: try to hold until 15:00 at least. If price is in the premium of the AM dealing range, we could see price continue lower/higher (when the premium array is not a HTF premium array), otherwise price will reverse there.
 
3.1    Consolidation AM Rally PM Decline (Trading Range /Neutral Day ≈ 35% of all trading days)
If unsure of what the IOF of the current day is or where we are relative to Premium/Discount on Daily/4h, chances are we likely see this scenario - especially if there is no high/medium impact news expected during 10am or later in the day.

  • Institutional Order Flow: Neutral.
  • AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then rallies OR expands Higher from Equilibrium to run London session Buy Stops.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Highs [Buy Stops] and then reaches for Day's Sell Stops OR Runs the Intraday High and then reaches for ID/London session Sell Stops. PM Trend can simply consolidate into Close after Lunch Hour.
3.2    Consolidation AM Decline PM Rally (Trading Range / Neutral Day ≈ 35% of all trading days)
If unsure of what the Institutional Order Flow of the current day is or where we are relative to Premium/Discount on Daily/4h, chances are we likely see this scenario - especially if there is no high/medium impact news expected during 10am or later in the day.

  • Institutional Order Flow: Neutral.
  • AM Trend: Returns to a Premium Array then declines OR expands Lower from Equilibrium to run London session Sell Stops.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Lows [Sell Stops] and then reaches for Day's Buy Stops OR Runs the Intraday Low and then reaches for the Intraday London session Buy Stops.
  • PM Trend can simply consolidate into Close after Lunch Hour. 

Tips for Consolidation AM Rally and PM Decline / Consolidation AM Decline and PM Rally:
► In this scenario Institutional Order Flow is neutral or unclear where we're at relative to premium or discount on 4H or daily. This scenario happens a lot in index trading which can be frustrating if you don’t know the mechanics behind it. When there's a strong directional bias behind the marketplace or the underlying meanings of the market suggest higher/lower prices, DO NOT look for this scenario. This is not seek and destroy (NFP), this is simply consolidation. This happens when there’s a lack of news or trend.
AM: price returns to a premium/discount then rallies OR after the first hour of the opening range or expands higher from EQ to run SSL/BSL (Buy Side Liquidity/Sell Side Liquidity)from London or intraday.
PM: 2 scenario’s —> 1. Run on lunch hour highs/lows then rally for AM session BSL/SSL or 2. run intraday high/lows and then run for intraday or London SSL/BSL.
► ► How to trade: Which one is it going to do, lunch highs/lows or AM SSL/BSL? We are going to be looking for a 15m PD array inside a 4h/Daily PD array. So the HTF confluence is the catalyst for the reversal. If that PD Array was already reached in AM, PM will just run out lunch hour highs/lows.
If the PM session takes lunch hour SSL/BSL or AM session SSL/BSL is dependent on the AM session BSL/SSL. If these lows/highs reached into a 15m PD array inside a 4h/Daily PD array PM will just run out lunch hour highs/lows.

How to know if the PM session will run lunch or intraday highs?

HTF PD array hit in AM session = Lunch highs likely to be run.
HTF PD array NOT hit in AM session= PM session  could run the intraday high, hit the HTF Premium array, and then reverse.
 
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Sunday, May 26, 2024

Top Ten S&P 500 Seasonal Periods after a +5% January-May | Wayne Whaley

With four trading days remaining in the month of May, the first five S&P months (January-May) of the year are up 11.2%.  Over the last 50 years, there have been 22 years in which the S&P was up at least 5% for the first five months of the year. Below are the ten strongest seasonal periods in the last seven months of those 22 years, eight of which had a positive slant.


The first column is the performance in the first five months of the year in those 22 years of the last 50 which had a +5% gain.  The 2nd column is the performance from May31-June 8th which is the rated the 10th strongest seasonal period of those last seven months. Then Jun12-July14, etc.
 
In my opinion, the major take away from this scan is that not only are you promised a strong fourth Quarter culminating in a 20-2, Dec14-30 performance but you usually get an equally impressive summer rally from mid June through mid July.  The two soft spots occurred in July26-August10 and Sept23-30.

 
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Friday, May 24, 2024

Putin wants Ukraine Ceasefire on Current Frontlines | Reuters

MOSCOW / LONDON, May 24, 2024 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognises the current battlefield lines, four Russian sources told Reuters, saying he is prepared to fight on if Kyiv and the West do not respond.

 PUTIN READY TO STOP WAR FOR NEGOTIATED CEASEFIRE RECOGNIZING CURRENT FRONTLINES - 
two presstitutes at Reuters are claiming. They are citing "four anonymous Russian sources", 
and are warning Putin is ready to fight as long as it takes if West refuses.
MOSCOW, May 24, 2024

Three of the sources, familiar with discussions in Putin's entourage, said the veteran Russian leader had expressed frustration to a small group of advisers about what he views as Western-backed attempts to stymie negotiations and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's decision to rule out talks. 
 
War is diplomacy by other means. 
And it is the winner on all battlefields dictating the terms of 'peace'.
» Russia is ready if the West wants to fight for Ukraine. «
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
MOSCOW, May 13, 2024
 
"Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire – to freeze the war," said another of the four, a senior Russian source who has worked with Putin and has knowledge of top  level conversations in the Kremlin.
 
♫  He, like the others cited in this story, spoke on condition of anonymity given the matter's sensitivity. ♫ 
 
 Under Hibatullah Akhundzada's leadership, the Islamic Republic 
was dissolved and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was re-established.
KABUL, August 15, 2021
 
Under General Abdourahamane Tchiani's leadership, the Republic of the Niger
resisted ECOWAS' invasion threats, kicked out all French and American
military, and called in Russian troops.
NIAMEY, May 3, 2024
 
Under Abdul-Malik Badruldeen al-Houthi's leadership, Ansar Allah overthrew
the previous regime in 2015, and took full control over the Republic of Yemen. 
SANA'A, May 24, 2024
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ICT Weekly Seek & Destroy Manipulation Profile | Michael J. Huddleston

 The Weekly 'Seek & Destroy' Range Manipulation Profile a.k.a. the 'Retail Traders Graveyard'.

The Weekly 'Seek & Destroy' Marker Maker Range Manipulation Template with either a bullish or a bearish Friday is a neutral or low probability market profile. The manipulation is taking place where price is consolidating Monday through Thursday, running shallow stops under and above the intra-week highs and lows, then runs the intra-week high/low and expands higher/lower into Friday. 
 
 
How to anticipate it? When the market is awaiting major news announcements in the second half of the week - especially after one or more directional wide-range weeks (see also the daily 'London Swing to Seek & Destroy' Template).


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Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Thursday is the most bullish day before Memorial Day | Jeffrey A. Hirsch

 
Thursday historically the most bullish day before Memorial Day over last 21 years based upon average performance, 
range DJIA +0.24% to R2K +0.46%. Except for NASDAQ, frequency of gains is also best on Thursday. 
[...] Wednesday has been the softest of the three days with DJIA’s performance turning negative.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch - May 21, 2024

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US Debt is now rising by $1 Trillion every 100 Days | Paul Craig Roberts

The US debt has never mattered, because the US dollar is the world reserve currency. That means US debt is the reserves of the world’s central banks. If US debt rises, so does the reserves of the world banking system. All central banks were delighted to accumulate more US Treasury debt as it meant the reserves of their banking system went up.

» The morons who comprise the Biden regime are scaring central banks away from the dollar. «
 
The Federal Reserve can always redeem US Treasury debt by creating money with which to buy it. The debt is always redeemable because it is denominated in dollars. The problem arrives when the dollar is deserted as world reserve currency. The morons who comprise the Biden regime are scaring central banks away from the dollar as their reserves because of sanctions against Russia, Iran, China, Venezuela, and others. The slow mental processes of central banks are beginning to understand that having your reserves in US Treasury dollar debt means they can be frozen, seized, denied to your use if you cross Washington.

Fun Fact : The current Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Hayden 'Jay' Powell is NOT Jewish.
Everything is fine. Don't fall for antisemitic trope, Anti-Zionism, and conspiracy thought crime.

The threat to Washington is, whereas the Fed can print dollars to redeem the debt, the Fed cannot print foreign currencies to redeem the US dollar. So, if central banks shift their reserves out of dollars into gold, as Russia and China are doing, or into other currencies, the supply of dollars in foreign exchange markets have fewer and fewer takers. Consequently the dollar loses its value relative to gold, silver, and rising currencies, and the dollar’s value falls in foreign exchange markets. As America’s manufacturing is offshored and as America relies on imports of food, US inflation rises. Historically, the Fed’s response to inflation has been unemployment.

 
♫ Nowhere to hide ♪ nowhere to go ♫ meet Saint Jerome ♪ the Wrecking Ball ♫
 
The Federal Reserve and the institutions used to suppress gold and silver prices use naked shorts to control the price by dumping shorts into the futures market. In other words, contracts unsupported by actual gold holdings can be used to increase the paper supply of gold in futures markets. As the futures market settles in cash, not in gold deliveries, a flood of paper contracts unsupported by actual physical gold can be used to suppress the price. In other words, the supply of paper gold can be printed just like the Fed can print paper money. [...] This price control process fails when the demand for gold exceeds the physical supply at the suppressed price. We have recently witnessed a new outbreak in the gold price. Is this a sign that the controlled price can no longer hold against the demand for physical gold, or is there some other explanation?

» America is likely living her last years. Perhaps this is why Putin and Xi don’t bother to dispose of us. «

As the fools ruling the US continue their destruction of the country, the dollar and living standards will die with the country. America is likely living her last years. Perhaps this is why Putin and Xi don’t bother to dispose of us.
 
 
See also:
 
oooo0oooo
 
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